Player Discussion David Pastrnak V

[JAD]

Nhl.discussion on Instagram posted the Bruins have reportedly offered pasta 8x 6.125 mil... they generally just repost reports from actual insiders but I can't find who they're copying... anyone see a trying similar ?

The main board has something similar of a Chech paper saying he signed 8 x 6.125 but no links.
So no way of knowing if it is legit.

 

[KrejciMVP]

The main board has something similar of a Chech paper saying he signed 8 x 6.125 but no links.
So no way of knowing if it is legit.

Well that would certainly be a good deal

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

The main board has something similar of a Chech paper saying he signed 8 x 6.125 but no links.
So no way of knowing if it is legit.

I think we can know it's not legit.

 

[JAD]

I might add that it was only a rumor and as a rule I don't like to spread rumors. In fact the only rumors I like was that Fleetwood Mac album.

 

[sleepyh]

I might add that it was only a rumor and as a rule I don't like to spread rumors. In fact the only rumors I like was that Fleetwood Mac album.

Great album

 

[Salem13]

Great album

Somehow I feel compelled to say I'm a monkey for a finger full of custard.

 

[minpind]

I might add that it was only a rumor and as a rule I don't like to spread rumors. In fact the only rumors I like was that Fleetwood Mac album.

Players only love you when they're playing

 

[riverhawkey91]

There's no way that rumor can be true. That AAV is fairly low for what Pastrnak is worth to begin with, and by my count we'd also be buying 4 UFA years? That would be a legendary signing by Sweeney.

 

[DKH]

I think we can know it's not legit.

Why you say that

 

[Gordon Lightfoot]

There's no way that rumor can be true. That AAV is fairly low for what Pastrnak is worth to begin with, and by my count we'd also be buying 4 UFA years? That would be a legendary signing by Sweeney.

I don't know, doesn't seem too far fetched to me. Feels about right

 

[riverhawkey91]

I don't know, doesn't seem too far fetched to me. Feels about right

It's over a full million dollars less AAV than the higher end of comparable contracts from this decade, and it's actually about $250K less AAV than the lower end of them as well.

And that's before even factoring in buying two extra prime UFA years than the majority of similar contracts did.

 

[BruinLVGA]

There's no way that rumor can be true. That AAV is fairly low for what Pastrnak is worth to begin with, and by my count we'd also be buying 4 UFA years? That would be a legendary signing by Sweeney.

The rumor was by a Czech guy who said the news had been out in the Czech press for a couple of days. I and others asked for a link: none was provided. I tried to find something online myself: zero success. Then another poster from the Czech Republic said he hadn't seen anything himself.
It's probably a complete nothing-burger.

 

[DrJustice]

The rumor was by a Czech guy who said the news had been out in the Czech press for a couple of days. I and others asked for a link: none was provided. I tried to find something online myself: zero success. Then another poster from the Czech Republic said he hadn't seen anything himself.
It's probably a complete nothing-burger.

So you're saying there's a chance

 

[Over the volcano]

The main board has something similar of a Chech paper saying he signed 8 x 6.125 but no links.
So no way of knowing if it is legit.

That's Marchand's deal.

Maybe something was lost in translation.

Maybe not.

 

[b in vancouver]

There's no way that rumor can be true. That AAV is fairly low for what Pastrnak is worth to begin with, and by my count we'd also be buying 4 UFA years? That would be a legendary signing by Sweeney.

It's around what I expect. He just doesn't have the leverage to get much over 6. Not the track record, marquee status of being a top 3 pick and also isn't the 'face of the franchise', probably doesn't sell as many sweaters, is a winger, and hasn't been marketed as much as a lot of the other young stars.

Not all negotiations are created equal.

For arguments sake. He's as good as these other young stars - but those teams have to justify their brutal year to the STHers and market this high pick (Nugent-Hopkins for example) as a justification, giving the player a lot more leverage. Bruins never went through that. He'll sign around 6 for long term or around 4 as a bridge.

 

[missingchicklet]

Nhl.discussion on Instagram posted the Bruins have reportedly offered pasta 8x 6.125 mil... they generally just repost reports from actual insiders but I can't find who they're copying... anyone see a trying similar ?

If Pasta signs at 6.125 that is a heck of a deal for Boston. I'm still thinking he signs for no less than 6.5. 6.5 is a pretty good deal for Boston all things considered.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

It's over a full million dollars less AAV than the higher end of comparable contracts from this decade, and it's actually about $250K less AAV than the lower end of them as well.

And that's before even factoring in buying two extra prime UFA years than the majority of similar contracts did.

remember theres 6 players in NHL HISTORY who signed a contract above 6.5 mill when they were 21/22 coming off their elc

those 6 players are

connor McDavid
alexander ovechkin
Sydney Crosby
Evgeni malkin
steven stamkos
and johnny hockey

theres only 1 single name here that you could compare pastrnak or drasailt to without being laughed out of the rink

even johnny hockey's stats are miles better than pastrnak or draisailt since he had 3 very strong years compared to 1 1/2 by draisailt and 1 by pastrnak

so... not sure where all this comparables that are better than 6.125 comes from. there were some 24 and 25 year old kids that got a bit more... these kids signed bridge deals at 21 and cashed in at 24 or 25

so its either take a bridge deal and cash in later... or settle for around 6 mill.

to be honest... 6.125 is a little high but if it works then it works. you pay a little more to keep your important players happy

 

[Dellstrom]

That sounds too good to be true.

 

[riverhawkey91]

It's around what I expect. He just doesn't have the leverage to get much over 6. Not the track record, marquee status of being a top 3 pick and also isn't the 'face of the franchise', probably doesn't sell as many sweaters, is a winger, and hasn't been marketed as much as a lot of the other young stars.

Not all negotiations are created equal.

For arguments sake. He's as good as these other young stars - but those teams have to justify their brutal year to the STHers and market this high pick (Nugent-Hopkins for example) as a justification, giving the player a lot more leverage. Bruins never went through that. He'll sign around 6 for long term or around 4 as a bridge.

You're not wrong about some of that, but the issue here is Pastrnak really doesn't have any comparables also lacking the characteristics you mentioned...or any comparables at all.

In the last 10 years of draft picks, only 10 other players picked between #10 and #60 have scored 30 goals in any season (Pacioretty, Simmonds, Palmieri, Eberle, Tarasenko, Rakell, Jenner, Saad, Kucherov, and Forsberg). Out of those 10, not a single one of them had scored 30 by their 3rd post-draft season...Eberle and Forsberg both needed 4, while everyone else was at least in their 22-year-old season or later. The point here being that Pastrnak largely compares more to a top-10 pick than anything else, which I'm sure is part of what his camp will be/is arguing...and honestly he compares favorably to a good majority of them as well.

This thread is filled with comparable player comparisons for him, but ultimately progression/ceiling-wise the closest tend to be top-10 guys like Seguin, Hall, RNH, Evander Kane, Tavares, etc. Even adding in someone like Eberle, the main thing they all have in common is they all signed long-term deals for between 8.5% and 10% of the cap. If you apply that same mentality to Pastrnak, he's realistically looking at a minimum AAV of $6.375M...and as I mentioned before, that's not even accounting for buying extra UFA years (most of those deals only bought 2).

Who knows, maybe they can talk him way down by bringing up that he's not our best winger or doesn't have marquee status or marketing ability like you mentioned. But if Sweeney does manage that, IMO it'll be a legendary signing, because everything points towards him getting way more.

 

[riverhawkey91]

remember theres 6 players in NHL HISTORY who signed a contract above 6.5 mill when they were 21/22 coming off their elc

those 6 players are

connor McDavid
alexander ovechkin
Sydney Crosby
Evgeni malkin
steven stamkos
and johnny hockey

theres only 1 single name here that you could compare pastrnak or drasailt to without being laughed out of the rink

even johnny hockey's stats are miles better than pastrnak or draisailt since he had 3 very strong years compared to 1 1/2 by draisailt and 1 by pastrnak

so... not sure where all this comparables that are better than 6.125 comes from. there were some 24 and 25 year old kids that got a bit more... these kids signed bridge deals at 21 and cashed in at 24 or 25

so its either take a bridge deal and cash in later... or settle for around 6 mill.

to be honest... 6.125 is a little high but if it works then it works. you pay a little more to keep your important players happy

Again, we've been over this a boatload of times AOF. Comparing actual money on contracts from any other point in NHL history to now is completely meaningless. The value of money changes with time, and especially changes as the cap goes up. That's exactly the reason why McDavid is worth $12.5M AAV today while Crosby only got $8.7M AAV back in 2007. It's not because McDavid is worth almost $4M more than Crosby...realistically there's only a little over .5% difference in their cap values, and Crosby's was actually more valuable. The best you can do to compare contracts across time is by cap percentage, and even that isn't perfect.

Once you look at a contract's value in terms of the cap (again, the only way to do it), you'll see there are plenty of solid comparables for Pastrnak that would translate today to over $6.5M AAV. As I said in my post above this one, almost every legitimate comparable for Pastrnak got between 8.5% and 10% of the cap in the year the deal was signed...which the bottom of that alone would be over $6.125M.

Also your Gaudreau theory falls apart a bit when you factor in that it took him 5 years post-draft to hit 30G or 70pts....Pastrnak just did it in his 3rd post-draft season. Since Gaudreau was also signing his contract after his first 30G/70pt season, wouldn't that show Pastrnak actually is worth $6.5M+ AAV? And as Draisaitl is looking at $8M+ AAV with stats that aren't all that dissimilar from Pastrnak's, isn't that another vote in Pastrnak's favor?

edit - actually I have no idea where you got Gaudreau from at all...he was 23 when he signed his long-term deal, coming off his second NHL season.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Again, we've been over this a boatload of times AOF. Comparing actual money on contracts from any other point in NHL history to now is completely meaningless. The value of money changes with time, and especially changes as the cap goes up. That's exactly the reason why McDavid is worth $12.5M AAV today while Crosby only got $8.7M AAV back in 2007. It's not because McDavid is worth almost $4M more than Crosby...realistically there's only a little over .5% difference in their cap values, and Crosby's was actually more valuable. The best you can do to compare contracts across time is by cap percentage, and even that isn't perfect.

Once you look at a contract's value in terms of the cap (again, the only way to do it), you'll see there are plenty of solid comparables for Pastrnak that would translate today to over $6.5M AAV. As I said in my post above this one, almost every legitimate comparable for Pastrnak got between 8.5% and 10% of the cap in the year the deal was signed...which the bottom of that alone would be over $6.125M.

Also your Gaudreau theory falls apart a bit when you factor in that it took him 5 years post-draft to hit 30G or 70pts....Pastrnak just did it in his 3rd post-draft season. Since Gaudreau was also signing his contract after his first 30G/70pt season, wouldn't that show Pastrnak actually is worth $6.5M+ AAV? And as Draisaitl is looking at $8M+ AAV with stats that aren't all that dissimilar from Pastrnak's, isn't that another vote in Pastrnak's favor?

if draisailt gets his ask then yes the market will move. similarly next year matthews and his toronto buddies, eichel, laine should all get contracts 6.5 or higher... these contracts are all but guaranteed to move the market

if i was draisailt or pastrnaks agent id prob recommend a bridge because i think the market next year will radically improve for 21 year olds

as for your theory that 21 year old contracts go up with the cap... you can trace the history of the cap back to the beginning and look at 21 year old contracts then... you can follow it through the tavares and hall and hopkins and mackinnon years... i dont think you will find any real evidence that the REAL MONEY changed based on %

again thats sort of an invention this year to justify the mcdavid contract

if you look at my 6 21 year olds that got paid... 5 of those 6 were ancent history now. the 21 year olds that followed were paid less

there was nominal growth in pay to 21 year olds the last 2 seasons... guys in calgary and winnipeg and colorado finally broke the 6 mill barrier

is it coincidence these are 3 teams no one wants to play for?

i hope the rumor of pastrnak signing is true... i find myself saying the same thing again and again... but its true. im not making this stuff up. im just remembering true real nhl history

after all thats what comparables is

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Again, we've been over this a boatload of times AOF. Comparing actual money on contracts from any other point in NHL history to now is completely meaningless. The value of money changes with time, and especially changes as the cap goes up. That's exactly the reason why McDavid is worth $12.5M AAV today while Crosby only got $8.7M AAV back in 2007. It's not because McDavid is worth almost $4M more than Crosby...realistically there's only a little over .5% difference in their cap values, and Crosby's was actually more valuable. The best you can do to compare contracts across time is by cap percentage, and even that isn't perfect.

Once you look at a contract's value in terms of the cap (again, the only way to do it), you'll see there are plenty of solid comparables for Pastrnak that would translate today to over $6.5M AAV. As I said in my post above this one, almost every legitimate comparable for Pastrnak got between 8.5% and 10% of the cap in the year the deal was signed...which the bottom of that alone would be over $6.125M.

Also your Gaudreau theory falls apart a bit when you factor in that it took him 5 years post-draft to hit 30G or 70pts....Pastrnak just did it in his 3rd post-draft season. Since Gaudreau was also signing his contract after his first 30G/70pt season, wouldn't that show Pastrnak actually is worth $6.5M+ AAV? And as Draisaitl is looking at $8M+ AAV with stats that aren't all that dissimilar from Pastrnak's, isn't that another vote in Pastrnak's favor?

edit - actually I have no idea where you got Gaudreau from at all...he was 23 when he signed his long-term deal, coming off his second NHL season.

i guess i gave gaudreau credit for being 22 at end of last contract but you are correct... he was 23 entering his new deal and as such is more like tarasenko or kuznetov and isnt a true comparable

of course he was the only one on list that favored pastrnak. elliminating him now makes monohan the highest paid comparable and thats well below 6.5

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Why you say that

I just heard somewhere that someone read a newspaper in some other language that said something once.

 

[riverhawkey91]

if draisailt gets his ask then yes the market will move. similarly next year matthews and his toronto buddies, eichel, laine should all get contracts 6.5 or higher... these contracts are all but guaranteed to move the market

if i was draisailt or pastrnaks agent id prob recommend a bridge because i think the market next year will radically improve for 21 year olds

as for your theory that 21 year old contracts go up with the cap... you can trace the history of the cap back to the beginning and look at 21 year old contracts then... you can follow it through the tavares and hall and hopkins and mackinnon years... i dont think you will find any real evidence that the REAL MONEY changed based on %

again thats sort of an invention this year to justify the mcdavid contract

if you look at my 6 21 year olds that got paid... 5 of those 6 were ancent history now. the 21 year olds that followed were paid less

there was nominal growth in pay to 21 year olds the last 2 seasons... guys in calgary and winnipeg and colorado finally broke the 6 mill barrier

is it coincidence these are 3 teams no one wants to play for?

i hope the rumor of pastrnak signing is true... i find myself saying the same thing again and again... but its true. im not making this stuff up. im just remembering true real nhl history

after all thats what comparables is

The market "moves" because the cap goes up...I feel like that's the part you're missing. Teams wouldn't be giving out more money in higher contracts if the cap remained the same every year...they have the ability to do it because the cap continues to rise. Which again...brings everything back to being relative to the cap. It's all relative.

You can harp on the "cap percentage was invented for McDavid" thing all you want, and you don't have to believe me that it isn't remotely true, but I do remember Dom also telling you that was completely wrong and he's much more believable than any of us. All it really is is a way to compare the value of contracts across time...i.e how valuable the contract for player X was to team Y in year Z. It isn't some crazy gimmick made up for some reason to make people feel better about how much McDavid got paid.

As for the bolded, all contracts go up with the cap...not just 21 year olds. I gave you the most direct, applicable example possible in what you quoted...Crosby and McDavid. You can see it literally everywhere though...have Toews/Kane ever been worth what Crosby/Ovechkin were in their prime? No way, yet right now they're both making $1-2M AAV more than what either was paid back at their best. And how many times lately have we looked at a contract and gone "wow...that's what $X buys you today?"...hell most of us did it with Johansen just a few days ago! Go compare what he just got paid to similar centers a decade ago...I bet he makes something like 10-20% more than they did.

Out of curiosity AOF if you end up seeing this...who do you consider as actual comparables for Pastrnak? I've seen you rule out a bunch of guys for various reasons, but I can't remember if you've actually mentioned who you think he compares to that makes him worth ~$6M AAV...

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

The market "moves" because the cap goes up...I feel like that's the part you're missing. Teams wouldn't be giving out more money in higher contracts if the cap remained the same every year...they have the ability to do it because the cap continues to rise. Which again...brings everything back to being relative to the cap. It's all relative.

You can harp on the "cap percentage was invented for McDavid" thing all you want, and you don't have to believe me that it isn't remotely true, but I do remember Dom also telling you that was completely wrong and he's much more believable than any of us. All it really is is a way to compare the value of contracts across time...i.e how valuable the contract for player X was to team Y in year Z. It isn't some crazy gimmick made up for some reason to make people feel better about how much McDavid got paid.

As for the bolded, all contracts go up with the cap...not just 21 year olds. I gave you the most direct, applicable example possible in what you quoted...Crosby and McDavid. You can see it literally everywhere though...have Toews/Kane ever been worth what Crosby/Ovechkin were in their prime? No way, yet right now they're both making $1-2M AAV more than what either was paid back at their best. And how many times lately have we looked at a contract and gone "wow...that's what $X buys you today?"...hell most of us did it with Johansen just a few days ago! Go compare what he just got paid to similar centers a decade ago...I bet he makes something like 10-20% more than they did.

Out of curiosity AOF if you end up seeing this...who do you consider as actual comparables for Pastrnak? I've seen you rule out a bunch of guys for various reasons, but I can't remember if you've actually mentioned who you think he compares to that makes him worth ~$6M AAV...

I went through every 21 year old 2nd contract... i tried to find any over 6 mill. I listed everyone in existence. I mistakenly added johnny hockey to this mix

If i was pastrnaks agent id try to use these as my comparables and argue my client is worth over 6 mill

If i was the bruins id point to several guys that signed under 6 mill.

But of course you dont want to upset a player that is important. If this was going to arbitration, i think the case would settle for under 5 mill on a 1 or 2 year deal.. but its not going to arbitration

Most of the leaked rumors havd boston offering between 6 and 6.125 on a 6-8 year deal. Pastrnaks camp seams to want to wait until draisdailt signs. Some rumors say liut is trying to use mcdavids contract to jump draisailt up yo 8-9 mill per year

Im hearing oilers might be willing togo 7

7 would be a new market breaker

Boston has historically never wanted to set new markets. Jacobs has never been a free spender on talent. Despite being a large market team jacobs supported the cap and limits on elc contracts

If im reading the tea leaves, no one will offersheet pastrnak at more than market value... market value is 6 or a bit more on a longer deal. Thats the comparables if you arent buying ufa seasons