David Desharnais - The Too Many Threads to Keep Track of Edition

[Mathletic]

Sample sizes

So, by your theory, by sacking DD the Habs would gain roughly 30 standings points a year without him and playing Eller instead? Guy's getting in the HOF for sure with this kind of impact.

 

[DAChampion]

So, by your theory, by sacking DD the Habs would gain roughly 30 standings points a year without him and playing Eller instead? Guy's getting in the HOF for sure with this kind of impact.

The 26-1-1 is certainly an exaggeration, however, it's easier for a good team to fluke itself to a great record than it is for a bad team to fluke itself to a good record.

Would the team win 26 in 28 games with DD on the IR? No, but the evidence suggests it would play better, since offensive time would be redistributed to superior players.

 

[Mathletic]

The 26-1-1 is certainly an exaggeration, however, it's easier for a good team to fluke itself to a great record than it is for a bad team to fluke itself to a good record.

Would the team win 26 in 28 games with DD on the IR? No, but the evidence suggests it would play better, since offensive time would be redistributed to superior players.

You mean the evidence that shows that players do better with DD on their line than without? Including Max.

anyways, been over that a million times. Won't change much.

 

[Nynja*]

The 26-1-1 is certainly an exaggeration, however, it's easier for a good team to fluke itself to a great record than it is for a bad team to fluke itself to a good record.

Would the team win 26 in 28 games with DD on the IR? No, but the evidence suggests it would play better, since offensive time would be redistributed to superior players.

Actually its not an exaggeration. In games where Ellers TOI is greater than DDs or lower by less than 10 seconds, the habs really are 26-1-1, feel free to validate that yourself.

The DD supporters claim its cause "Eller is protecting the lead in those games", yet that wasnt the case for win 25, nor was it the case tonight since we never had the lead.

 

[Mathletic]

Actually its not an exaggeration. In games where Ellers TOI is greater than DDs or lower by less than 10 seconds, the habs really are 26-1-1, feel free to validate that yourself.

Not what he meant. Only means that there's either lurking variables or sheer luck in that record.

 

[DAChampion]

Not what he meant. Only means that there's either lurking variables or sheer luck in that record.

Yes, thank you. The Habs are the greatest team in NHL history when Eller gets more ice time than DD in 2014-2015. That's a fluke.

 

[Nynja*]

26-1-1 = fluke
Lololololololololololol

 

[DAChampion]

26-1-1 = fluke
Lololololololololololol

Do you really believe that the team without DD would win 76 games over a full season?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

26-1-1 = fluke
Lololololololololololol

I don't think he's saying it's a fluke. You guys are about to engage in a semantical argument...

 

[Paddyjack]

He has no more excuses NOT to shoot after this last regular season game!!!!!

Honestly, I bet Bernier thought he was doing a pump fake, as he never shoot the puck lol

 

[Nynja*]

Obviously not
Are you refuting the fact that when Ellers TOI is greater than DDs or lower by less than 10 seconds, the habs record is 26-1-1?
Cause, i mean, thats a statistical, undeniable, fact

 

[Mathletic]

26-1-1 = fluke
Lololololololololololol

Pens went 16 games without losing in Lalime's first games in the NHL. Won 18 of his 20 first decisions. Sens are 20-1-2 with a guy who wasn't even good in the AHL. Yeah flukes happen and if you search for them you will find them. You have to see it the other way around. What are the odds that in the history of the NHL no goalie would go that many games without losing in regulation. Same thing with Eller and Desharnais. Kind of strange that magically, if Eller plays 1 minute less in a game then all of a sudden Habs can't win. Do you really take this stuff that seriously? If your point is: Eller is a good player. Fine, I agree. There's much better evidence to support that. But seriously, W-L record attributed to single players? Especially in hockey when it's a very good example of a team sport. I could understand BBall to a certain extent. But hockey and a player like Eller who's a fine player but not quite Wayne Gretzky.

 

[Nynja*]

If i feel like it when i get home, i may go through all of those 28 games and establish how much time the habs spent with the lead and how much was spent trailing. I promise nothing though.

 

[DAChampion]

There are at least three factors going into that 26-1-1 record:

1) Luck;
2) Defensive players get more ice time when the team has a lead, and offensive players get less ice time;
3) The team is better when Desharnais plays 14-16 minutes as opposed to 18-20 minutes;

Factor #3 is a 5 minute shift in ice time from Desharnais to Plekanec/Eller. If Plekanec/Eller are much better, and I mean substantially better, then that means one additional increment in the scoring differential every 12 games, whereas the statistic suggests 1 every 2 games.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

New thread is up, feel free to continue there...