TSN: Dave Poulin on the state of the Oilers

[McTonyBrar]

Haha. No worries, I notice you can run hot at times. Didn't mean to jump on you. I like when posting bring different, credible expert opinions to this board. I'd never had heard this podcast if OP hadn't brought it forward. Huge off season and interesting to see how the Oilers are viewed by outside the bubble boys!

I understand ahahah I know I run hot a lot of the time . No problem man and I agree I'm excited for the offseason. I want these playoffs to end quickly

 

[CycloneSweep]

Ill be 100% honest and say I was not intentionally implying that he should be fired but if you look at his work here and his most recent years in Detroit firing him would be the safest course of action. He does suck and I'd be very curious what the pro Holland group can rest their hats on after that humiliating sweep and consecutive massive playoff disappointments.

I know the old boys club dropped the interview process to bring in their best bud so Holland is not going to be fired any time soon, so it would be best if he did as little as possible to waste even more assets than he has chasing his long shots and has-beens.

But my original point was much more that whether Holland or someone else is at the helm the team is better off conserving assets and avoiding short sighted buyouts. Primarily build through the draft. Until Lucic/Neal, Sekera, Koskinen, and Kassian are off the books or drastically turn around their careers the Oilers are in tough to do anything. Thats an incredible amount of dead cap space to work around and you can not blame Chiarelli for all that. If anything gets done it is going to take a lot of creativity and likely involve fleecing an opposing GM or two.

This team was 25th in the league 2 years ago when he took over.

This team outplayed Winnipeg every game but Hellebuyck stole the show. Trying to look too much into that or calling him a failure that a garbage team noenhas back to back 2nd place in the regular season, one playin loss (Covid cup was dumb) and a sweep where we were the better team nightly I dont know what to tell you.

He took over a shit team and hasn't made it worse and we are setup for a good off season.

If he fails this off season sure, call for his head and say he sucks. He has had f*** all to work with and hasn't made the team or the organization it takes time.

Bet you would of been calling for Sakics head when they had MacKinnon and one of the worst seasons of all time. Look at them now.

 

[Smartguy]

This team was 25th in the league 2 years ago when he took over.

This team outplayed Winnipeg every game but Hellebuyck stole the show. Trying to look too much into that or calling him a failure that a garbage team noenhas back to back 2nd place in the regular season, one playin loss (Covid cup was dumb) and a sweep where we were the better team nightly I dont know what to tell you.

He took over a shit team and hasn't made it worse and we are setup for a good off season.

If he fails this off season sure, call for his head and say he sucks. He has had f*** all to work with and hasn't made the team or the organization it takes time.

Bet you would of been calling for Sakics head when they had MacKinnon and one of the worst seasons of all time. Look at them now.

The thing that people can’t grasp is Holland should have been the type of hire when Mcdavid was drafted, a guy to come in calm down the fan base, make smart short term signings, draft well and put emphasis on growth within. Instead he inherited a team a few years into a generational talent about to hit their prime and nothing for assets or prospects.

It will take time to right the ship, but this offseason is where it needs to be on its path in the right direction, IMO this is the biggest offseason the Oilers have had in probably 20 years.

People expect 2005-2006 bringing in Pronger, Peca, Samsonov, Roloson and going on a run to be happy essentially.

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

The approach should be this. Basically, Ryan we love ya bud but there’s holes that have to be filled. We have to plug these holes and we’ll circle back around to you and see what we can offer with the remaining space.

He is a good player, I don’t think he’s worth 6, but I’d still take him as long as more important roles are filled first.

 

[alphahelix]

Pronger, Tjarnstrom, Peca, Samsonov, Sykora, Dvorak, Semenov, Spacek, Roloson.

I guess our top3D, out 2C, one of our best wingers, and our starting goaltender aren't anything but a few minor acquisitions.

Im not gonna bother looking it up but Im 90% sure Sykora wasnt there til a couple years later and maybe the same with Tarnstrom. I think Semenov was already gone by the time they took that run. The top 3d included Staios and Smith. Pronger was obviously a huge add to the core in the offseason and everyone else was acquired running up to the trade deadline. They were nice adds but aside from Pronger they all came in the trade rental timeframe, which is absolutely something we could have done this year or could choose to do next year or any other year we're willing to spend the assets. The outlier here is obviously Pronger but any GM and certainly Holland makes that deal if its available. Luckily we had the assets drafted and developed in house to make that deal (Brewer, Woywitka, etc)

 

[iCanada]

sykora wasn’t on that team. Semenov wasn’t either and he was an oiler draft pick

Still... like that year we acquired our number 1 goaltender, our three best defenseman including a Norris trophy winner, a Selke winner, and two top six forwards.

I'm probably Lowes biggest hater here, but objectively that offseason and the help he accrued from outside the organization was incredible. That would be kind of like Holland going out and acquiring Couturier, Parayko, Saad, Rakell, Getzlaf and Merzlinkens prior to next year's playoffs.

Yeah.

 

[majormajor]

Getting upgrades on Larsson and RNH? Sure, if you can find them.

Reading Poulin though it seemed to follow that kind of addition by subtraction logic and I don't think that's going to work for the Oilers. It's a skin and bones team right now, they need all the depth they can get. The team would look much better with a couple more second line caliber forwards. Focus on that.

 

[Stoneman89]

I'm not questioning his history or how great he's been. I agree it was childish for me to say that but it was as a joke that's all

Good for you to admit.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

They worked their assws off too in the playoffs. Just couldn't buy a goal

They only did when the series was 0-2. By then it was too late.

 

[Soundwave]

This team was 25th in the league 2 years ago when he took over.

This team outplayed Winnipeg every game but Hellebuyck stole the show. Trying to look too much into that or calling him a failure that a garbage team noenhas back to back 2nd place in the regular season, one playin loss (Covid cup was dumb) and a sweep where we were the better team nightly I dont know what to tell you.

He took over a shit team and hasn't made it worse and we are setup for a good off season.

If he fails this off season sure, call for his head and say he sucks. He has had f*** all to work with and hasn't made the team or the organization it takes time.

Bet you would of been calling for Sakics head when they had MacKinnon and one of the worst seasons of all time. Look at them now.

They've improved and probably can make playoffs now with good goaltending (and that's an important qualifier).

But as far as making an actual playoff run I think this team isn't there and probably will require a few more years of losing early in the post-season. They are 2-3 years behind teams like Colorado.

To assume overnight our pro scouting and Holland will hit home run after home run is asking a lot, they probably will still make quite a few mistakes going forward.

 

[TheNumber4]

Perron, Talbot, Larsson, Barrie. Strome. Just a short list.

Our previous GM was Chiarelli, and even he found some nuts, our GM's before that even made some hay.

The trouble with this org is casting away the players we've had like Talbot, Perron, Hall, Eberle, Petry, all more valuable players than RNH who most teams wouldn't even miss. The irony of our current state of affairs, lack of complete depth, is we've had all the players we needed and could've retained them. Of all the players I mention, only Eberle is comparable to Nuge, but is better at driving production, and creating goals.

I sympathize with your point, and yet don't agree that losing Nuge would be an inordinate loss, and not felt in relation to what he could be replaced with for same cap. Nuge competed 1.5games within a 4 game playoff series and was an absolute passenger in the first two. After having a non impact season in a contract year. I mean this was motivated Nuge, and what it looked like. pass..

Perron didn't stay.
Talbot failed out. When we signed him he was a good bet but definitely not established.
Larsson required trading a former 1OA, future Hart trophy winner to acquire.
Strome required trading a bonafide skilled top 6 winger.

Agreed that we've had the pieces though and should have kept them around. It points to an organization that couldn't read what type of player they had and then punted them out of town during a down year. If anything those examples of players we had and lost should point to keeping a good player like Nuge IMO.

I think everyone wants MORE from Nuge. But to discount what he does and has brung, even this past year, could leave a huge hole on this roster that may take years to fill or won't ever get filled.

 

[Beerfish]

I have them in the exact opposite order, lol. Barrie will be overpriced the second he signs his deal, and is turning 30 this summer. We have a rough replacement for him with Bouchard, who will cost 15% of the cap hit that Barrie will. We have no such internal replacements for either RNH or Larsson. Unless you think we are magically signing Hamilton, but if that is the case, we shouldn't be signing Barrie or Larsson, as we couldn't afford them (Hamilton will likely sign a deal almost as expensive as Barrie + Larsson)

Barrie is going to get the most because he is the most impactful.

I like Bouchard a lot, too bad this past season was almost a lost season imo. Just hanging around the big club and not playing hardly at all does not help a player near as much as playing in the minors.

The oilers fineally got this year the kind of Dman we have b een missing for like 20 years and now it is a shoulder shrug and let him walk in favour for a C/Winger who has under achieved and a defensive dman.

To each their own.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The approach should be this. Basically, Ryan we love ya bud but there’s holes that have to be filled. We have to plug these holes and we’ll circle back around to you and see what we can offer with the remaining space.

He is a good player, I don’t think he’s worth 6, but I’d still take him as long as more important roles are filled first.

Not signing him means we have another hole to fill though. Moving him to "sign the important holes" makes no sense cause moving on from him opens another important hole

We already desperately need anothrt top 6 winger. Moving from Nuge means we now desperately need 2 or else we are back to square one

 

[MessierII]

Not signing him means we have another hole to fill though. Moving him to "sign the important holes" makes no sense cause moving on from him opens another important hole

We already desperately need anothrt top 6 winger. Moving from Nuge means we now desperately need 2 or else we are back to square one

It just really comes down to money with Nuge. If he’s willing to take between 5-6 something will get done. If he’s not they will spend the money elsewhere.

 

[belair]

Who's Dave Poulin?

 

[snipes]

Wasn’t Poulin crying when the Oilers named McDavid captain? We made the playoffs that year following it.

That guy is always super anti-Oilers. He’s insufferable to listen to.

He’s probably not totally wrong here, I’d like to keep Larsson though and Nuge at a paycut. It’s adding more depth to this roster that we need, and guys that can play a bottom pairing role. We’re not as far off as many think, but Holland needs to really hit on some of these depth signings this offseason.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Who's Dave Poulin?

A two time all-star that played in 3 Stanley Cup Finals (all against the 80s Oilers) and finished his career with a Selke and a Clancy Trophy. He later became the VP of Hockey Ops for the Leafs and now an alnalyst for TSN.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Moving on doesn't always work. Keeping guys do want always work. There is no Guarentees either way.

There are 3 ufas better than Nuge and I doubt ANY of them don't resign. It's not some magical free agent class where letting Nuge go is beneficial so we can land some big guy. If he is willing to sign for under 6 it's a no brainer.

Keep harping on this point, again and again and again but here goes:

Players of Nuge's level are NOT NHL-caliber at 35.
Between now and 35 we will see a massive decline into a borderline AHL-er at best.

What we are paying for is, where on the dartboard that decline happens, but it WILL happen (and from what I can tell it has already started).

What we can tell from comparable players, is that he will fall to the level of play somewhere between Kyle Turris and Matt Duchene within 2-3 years.


Imagine paying Kyle Turris $7million over the next 7 years, only because there was nobody better during the summer of 2021?

 

[CycloneSweep]

Keep harping on this point, again and again and again but here goes:

Players of Nuge's level are NOT NHL-caliber at 35.
Between now and 35 we will see a massive decline into a borderline AHL-er at best.

What we are paying for is, where on the dartboard that decline happens, but it WILL happen (and from what I can tell it has already started).

What we can tell from comparable players, is that he will fall to the level of play somewhere between Kyle Turris and Matt Duchene within 2-3 years.


Imagine paying Kyle Turris $7million over the next 7 years, only because there was nobody better during the summer of 2021?

I mean that's true for almost every single Ufa available. Unless you think we should walk from Nuge and then spend a 1st+ to get a player of his caliber or better and then we are back to where we are right now.

 

[belair]

Keep harping on this point, again and again and again but here goes:

Players of Nuge's level are NOT NHL-caliber at 35.
Between now and 35 we will see a massive decline into a borderline AHL-er at best.

What we are paying for is, where on the dartboard that decline happens, but it WILL happen (and from what I can tell it has already started).

What we can tell from comparable players, is that he will fall to the level of play somewhere between Kyle Turris and Matt Duchene within 2-3 years.


Imagine paying Kyle Turris $7million over the next 7 years, only because there was nobody better during the summer of 2021?

And again and again this 'point' relies on you picking and choosing a handful of players with vastly different factors that go into their career development paths. There's nothing tying these players together other than the fact their point production slowed at similar point. There's also no guarantee that a player like Matt Duchene couldn't rebound offensively a year or two from now. You're making an assumption that this is certain regression based on a player's age.

No question there are players who do regress at that age, but for what physical reason? You don't know.

When it comes to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, you're talking about a player who trains for endurance and has taken very little damage physically throughout his NHL career aside from a couple of concussions where he missed very little time. He's had a long run of short NHL seasons and very little playoff time. You're also talking about a player who hasn't relied on any prominent physical advantages to be successful throughout his NHL career.

So other than a single shortened NHL season of down 5v5 production, what other glaring evidence is there to guarantee that this player is due for severe offensive regression within the next several years?

 

[Perfect_Drug]

And again and again this 'point' relies on you picking and choosing a handful of players with vastly different factors that go into their career development paths. There's nothing tying these players together other than the fact their point production slowed at similar point. There's also no guarantee that a player like Matt Duchene couldn't rebound offensively a year or two from now. You're making an assumption that this is certain regression based on a player's age.

No question there are players who do regress at that age, but for what physical reason? You don't know.

When it comes to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, you're talking about a player who trains for endurance and has taken very little damage physically throughout his NHL career aside from a couple of concussions where he missed very little time. He's had a long run of short NHL seasons and very little playoff time. You're also talking about a player who hasn't relied on any prominent physical advantages to be successful throughout his NHL career.

So other than a single shortened NHL season of down 5v5 production, what other glaring evidence is there to guarantee that this player is due for severe offensive regression within the next several years?

The evidence is that the vast majority of NHLers massive decline. between 28 to 35. Like 95%
The chances of him being Bergeron are so slim you don't want risk it, when the other 95% of the time it ends up as Turris or Lucic.

Those are not good odds. And unless he's willing to take a series of 1-year contracts I'd rather pay him closer to what we expect his final year of his contract will look like. We can be 95% certain it is all downhill from here.

But from all accounts he's looking at a usual "retirement contract" which are all complete horseshit. I'm betting on him being totally garbage before 32.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I mean that's true for almost every single Ufa available. Unless you think we should walk from Nuge and then spend a 1st+ to get a player of his caliber or better and then we are back to where we are right now.

Yes, we let him walk.

Unless they are elite, you NEVER EVER EVER give big money to buy 30+ years. EVER

The caveat is them being elite. Crosby, Ovechkin, Bergeron etc. Guys with hardware.


I cherry picked a bunch of "ok-ish" players.
Go ahead and find more RNH comparables, and see how many of them aged well into their 30's.


The evidence across the board is VERY damning.


The damage to teams caused by these contracts is so ridiculous, I'm shocked they're even being offered by anyone anymore.

Look at the ones we had ourselves:
Former 30+ goal scoring dynamo James Neal is currently 32.
Former #1 Power Forward Milan Lucic played his final year in Edmonton at 30.
Former 25G 60+ point player Kyle Turris is 31.
Shawn Horcoff was a WAY better player than Nuge, and his play dropped off a cliff at 30.


We had front row seats to some of the worst 30+ contracts in the league since the cap era began, yet we keep wanting to shovel ridiculous sums of money to depreciating assets.


f*** that nonsense, we NEED TO STOP DOING THAT.

 

[Drivesaitl]

A

When it comes to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, you're talking about a player who trains for endurance and has taken very little damage physically throughout his NHL career aside from a couple of concussions where he missed very little time. He's had a long run of short NHL seasons and very little playoff time. You're also talking about a player who hasn't relied on any prominent physical advantages to be successful throughout his NHL career.

So other than a single shortened NHL season of down 5v5 production, what other glaring evidence is there to guarantee that this player is due for severe offensive regression within the next several years?

Its hilarious how you make these things seem like positive attributes when the argument suits, but you would rail against the notion of Nuge being a soft easy to play against player in any different context.

Of course when Nuges finds ways to avoid taking a hit, for instance prematurely playing the puck, just ditching it, bailing on it, or taking a harmless shot at net, its what most of have been saying all along.

Yeah, um, lol, I concur..haha

 

[Drivesaitl]

The evidence is that the vast majority of NHLers massive decline. between 28 to 35. Like 95%
The chances of him being Bergeron are so slim you don't want risk it, when the other 95% of the time it ends up as Turris or Lucic.

Those are not good odds. And unless he's willing to take a series of 1-year contracts I'd rather pay him closer to what we expect his final year of his contract will look like. We can be 95% certain it is all downhill from here.

But from all accounts he's looking at a usual "retirement contract" which are all complete horseshit. I'm betting on him being totally garbage before 32.

We've both produced this data multiple times in these threads, its been widely ignored, claims of cherry picking, Nuge is different, he's an endurance trained athlete. yada yada.

The same posters selectively refuting this time and again will make counter claims that they have explained something several times and we're just not heeding their version of truth.. Just saying that in general its interesting what gets considered as valid vs invalid claim. The notion for instance that McD has a negative impact on RNH production is accepted by the same posters who would look at these graphs and apparently reject it out of hand while stating they're the ones providing the numbers...

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Yes, we let him walk.

Unless they are elite, you NEVER EVER EVER give big money to buy 30+ years. EVER

The caveat is them being elite. Crosby, Ovechkin, Bergeron etc. Guys with hardware.


I cherry picked a bunch of "ok-ish" players.
Go ahead and find more RNH comparables, and see how many of them aged well into their 30's.


The evidence across the board is VERY damning.


The damage to teams caused by these contracts is so ridiculous, I'm shocked they're even being offered by anyone anymore.

Look at the ones we had ourselves:
Former 30+ goal scoring dynamo James Neal is currently 32.
Former #1 Power Forward Milan Lucic played his final year in Edmonton at 30.
Former 25G 60+ point player Kyle Turris is 31.
Shawn Horcoff was a WAY better player than Nuge, and his play dropped off a cliff at 30.


We had front row seats to some of the worst 30+ contracts in the league since the cap era began, yet we keep wanting to shovel ridiculous sums of money to depreciating assets.


f*** that nonsense, we NEED TO STOP DOING THAT.

It really doesn't matter if RNH isn't going to be a good player on the wrong side of 30. If we haven't won a Cup by then, we quite frankly never will.