I don’t know if he still holds the record or not but at one time he had played in the most Stanley Cup playoff games without ever winning the Cup. I remember this being brought up when the Oilers were playing the Flyers, then Bruins in the finals back in the day. Kind of the opposite of knowing a thing or two about winning.
I don’t know if he still holds the record or not but at one time he had played in the most Stanley Cup playoff games without ever winning the Cup. I remember this being brought up when the Oilers were playing the Flyers, then Bruins in the finals back in the day. Kind of the opposite of knowing a thing or two about winning.
I didn't make it seem like a positive attribute. It's being used to show the OP that there's very little evidence of physical regression.
So it's a mean regression of all players? Wouldn't that data be heavily skewed? A lot of players (probably a vast majority) don't make it past their 26th birthday before they head overseas. A lot more than the number of skaters that play into their 30s.
So looking at those numbers than $5millx4 would be fine for Nuge. Not huge money. Based on his physicality he should stay at a good level till 30 and start his decline.
I mean it's a fair bet. Nuge for 6/7 years would be a terrible idea. 4 years, probably fine
I don't have a problem with this as a typical trend. But unless you are improving the team through trades for young guys every player you could possibly bring in as a UFA is in the same boat. You also have to recognize that not all players fit this pattern to the same dgree or on the same timeline. WRT to the stats above Nuge's ISCF/60 at 5 vs 5 was the second highest of his career behind only last year. (At all strengths it was the highest). His shot rate was down slightly from the last years but still very close to his peak. Moreover, his current rates are higher in both cases than the plotted maximums. So he could well be follwing a path with a similar trajectory but with teh peak at 27. In fact, this is probably not so unusual for a guy whose game is more cerebral and less built on physical attributes.I wasn't referring to WAR specifically but I've linked the age regression in pts countless times. I've posted data on pts generation through age. Shots, scoring chances etc, here again.. Gabe Desjardins was putting out a lot of data as well on this (Behind the net) site a dozen years ago. Scientific papers on this dynamic for 20yrs. Its pretty accepted that player performane declines with age and forwards most succeptible and the dropoff obvious.
Pinning down a player's prime performance years - TSN.ca
But I'm prepared to see 3 page response detailing how Nuge who likely doesn't even train as hard as contemporaries or team mates is somehow immune to age and pts regression that on average impacts NHL players.
Nuge didn't hold value in the last contract. At similar price its a given he won't in the next contract, given that he's looking several years term, which puts him way over what his ideal playing age is for a forward. Somebody will overpay for that contract, and I don't doubt it. Hopefully not the Oilers.
Independent of how Nuge fits on this model, $$/pt is not a good way to value players. It is very skewed to players with cheap deals.
It is. Players sign cheap and can over achieve. That's why I picked a number kind of in the middle to evaluate. Some guys under and over achieve but I've always found for forwards, in around that $100k a point is considered fair. Of course there are other factors that will raise that. Stars like McDavid will often cost a bit more per point as the team also factors in the marketability etc. But for the average forward it's a fair number to evaluate unless they have special talents they bring to the table.
