Player Discussion Darnell Nurse - To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question.

[McIce Whole]

Nurse should not get over 5. He’s probably the most overrated player amongst HFOIL IMO.

Had a strong start to the year but reverted back to being a pretty meh player towards the second half of the season. Bridge him at 3.5 and go from there.

 

[CupofOil]

Skjei probably got too much. That won’t help things. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. I’m hoping for a breakout for Darnell this year, apparently Oates raved about him in his skills camp. It could happen.

Skjei scored 39 points in 80 games two seasons ago. Nurse has scored 47 points in 197 games, just to put in perspective the disparity in offensive acumen between the two so not a proper comparable IMO. Offense means a lot when negotiating contracts unless the Dman is elite defensively.

 

[joestevens29]

Skjei probably got too much. That won’t help things. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. I’m hoping for a breakout for Darnell this year, apparently Oates raved about him in his skills camp. It could happen.

Seems like everyone in New York is getting overpaid.

 

[McDNicks17]

Skjei scored 39 points in 80 games two seasons ago. Nurse has scored 47 points in 197 games, just to put in perspective the disparity in offensive acumen between the two so not a proper comparable IMO. Offense means a lot when negotiating contracts unless the Dman is elite defensively.

I wonder how deep agents/teams get into advanced stats. Skjei's on-ice shooting percentage showed he had an extremely lucky season that year.

Combine that with basically no history of offensive production at any level and I think you're looking at a guy who got really lucky he was up for a contract now.

 

[nabob]

Nurse should not get over 5. He’s probably the most overrated player amongst HFOIL IMO.

Had a strong start to the year but reverted back to being a pretty meh player towards the second half of the season. Bridge him at 3.5 and go from there.

I think a large portion of the people who thinknhe sucked at the end of the season were generally negative about everything. So if Nurse wasn’t bringing his A+ game like he was for the first 60 games of the season he sucked, just like everyone else sucked, just like the Oilers sucked.

Fact is he by by far our best Dman and best player outside of McDavid, Nuge and Drai for a very large majority of the season.

 

[nabob]

I wonder how deep agents/teams get into advanced stats. Skjei's on-ice shooting percentage showed he had an extremely lucky season that year.

Combine that with basically no history of offensive production at any level and I think you're looking at a guy who got really lucky he was up for a contract now.

I think it shows they don’t really look at things like on ice shooting percentage being high as a negative thing, but rather a positive thing. Means the player is more likely to contribute to better scoring chances for his team rather than drifted in shots from the boards.

 

[McDNicks17]

I think it shows they don’t really look at things like on ice shooting percentage being high as a negative thing, but rather a positive thing. Means the player is more likely to contribute to better scoring chances for his team rather than drifted in shots from the boards.

On-ice shooting is the shooting percentage of everyone on the ice while on the ice, so it's more of a measure of luck. Only the best players in the league can increase it over large samples.


I'm just curious because I think Nurse has a really strong case if agents/teams take advanced stats into account.

He was top 5 in the league in basically every possession metric(Corsi, Fenwick, Scoring Chances, High Danger Chances, etc.) for the first half of the season.

 

[nabob]

On-ice shooting is the shooting percentage of everyone on the ice while on the ice, so it's more of a measure of luck. Only the best players in the league can increase it over large samples.


I'm just curious because I think Nurse has a really strong case if agents/teams take advanced stats into account.

He was top 5 in the league in basically every possession metric(Corsi, Fenwick, Scoring Chances, High Danger Chances, etc.) for the first half of the season.

Luck to a certain extent but Inalso believe that better hockey plays lead to better scoring chances, and better scoring chances lead to a higher shooting percentage.

 

[Mr Positive]

Skjei scored 39 points in 80 games two seasons ago. Nurse has scored 47 points in 197 games, just to put in perspective the disparity in offensive acumen between the two so not a proper comparable IMO. Offense means a lot when negotiating contracts unless the Dman is elite defensively.

offense matters a lot, but it isn't the only factor. You don't have to be elite defensively to be paid for your defense either. I do agree that offense gets the most money though. To me, Nurse should get less than Skjei, but not by a lot, and he could get more if he would give us more term.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Career ES stats:

Nurse:
RelT GF/60 0.11
RelT GA/60 -.06
RelT XGF/60 0.03
RelT XGA/60 0.23
RelZone starts ratio -2.09
xGF% QoC 49.84

Skjei
RelT GF/60 0.04
RelT GA/60 0.06
RelT XGF/60 0.13
RelT XGA/60 0.04
RelZone starts ratio 11.12
xGF% QoC 49.79


Nurse has had MUCH harder zone starts in his career than Skjei, slightly harder quality of competition and his relative offensive/defensive results on the ice have been as good or better while doing so.

Skjei hasn't even managed to stay above water defensively in relation to his teammates despite the strong offensive zone start push he's been given.

 

[Kolja]

 

[PaPaDee]

That would be decent.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I'd be happy with that. The Sekera and Russell deals would be off the hook by then I believe.

 

[Gordian Knot]

I'd be happy with that. The Sekera and Russell deals would be off the hook by then I believe.

And Pouliot buyout.

 

[nabob]

If Bob is correct then that is very good money for Nurse. Worth every penny.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If Bob is correct then that is very good money for Nurse. Worth every penny.

It would be a solid bridge and then he gets PAID at the end of it.

And Pouliot buyout.

Good call.

 

[Mr Positive]

If we bridge him I prefer only one year

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If we bridge him I prefer only one year

One year does nothing to help our current cap crunch though. The last 2 years of Russell's deal he has a salary of $4 million and $2.5 million respectively so he should be movable with a 10 and 15 team limited NTC in his last 2 years here. Sekera is at $4.5 million both of his final 2 years remaining as well. At least one of them needs to move out before we sign Darnell long term IMO.

 

[Spawn]

I'd be happy with that. The Sekera and Russell deals would be off the hook by then I believe.

By trade? Otherwise, unfortunately nope. Sekera and Russel run 3 more seasons, not two.

And Pouliot buyout.

Again, nope. Pouliot buy-out on the books for another 3 seasons.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

By trade? Otherwise, unfortunately nope. Sekera and Russel run 3 more seasons, not two.

Again, nope. Pouliot buy-out on the books for another 3 seasons.

Yes trade, I looked again and both have 3 years as you've mentioned.

 

[nabob]

It’s a good possibility that in two years if Russel or Sekera aren’t dealt (which wouldn’t be hard to do) that Benning could be moved as well, with Bouchard being ready to take his spot. That right there could free up almost $2m. If Nurse doesn’t improve to become a 40ish point Dman then we might not need more cap space than that to get him signed long term. Also in 2 years the cap is likely to be even higher which will not only make the Russel and Sekera deals look a bit better, it will give a little bit more flexibility overall on the roster. People who think that we won’t be able to find a way to sign Nurse long term two years from now are thinking really small.

 

[fuswald]

On-ice shooting is the shooting percentage of everyone on the ice while on the ice, so it's more of a measure of luck. Only the best players in the league can increase it over large samples.

.

As opposed to off ice shooting? On road shooting? In the air shooting? Don't get this name.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

If Bob is correct then that is very good money for Nurse. Worth every penny.

If he tweets out specifics, he usually is.

Sigh of relief from me

 

[Tobias Kahun]

As opposed to off ice shooting? On road shooting? In the air shooting? Don't get this name.

Don’t get the name, it is pretty straight forward, it’s the shooting % of your team while you’re on the ice as opposed to shooting % is just a personal shooting percent

 

[nabob]

Don’t get the name, it is pretty straight forward, it’s the shooting % of your team while you’re on the ice as opposed to shooting % is just a personal shooting percent

So it’s a measure of how often your teammates shots go in while you’re on the ice with them?

I don’t see how this is a relevant stay at all unless it can show that elite setup men or elite shooters are indeed elite. For everyone else on the ice it seems pointless.