780il
edm
I think he'd be worth more than that less than halfway through that contract.
Player Discussion Darnell Nurse - To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question.
- Thread starter Spawn
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Could he? Sure. He is a 4/5 defender with a bit of a mean streak. He could definitely get better but he is worth no more than what Klefbom got.
Mr Positive
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if you look at the stats at the time of signing, along with cap growth, this is obviously not true. For a long term deal like Klefbom, Nurse has earned 5+ AAV.
Maybe we could get away with 4.75-5 AAV.
Nurse hasn't really earned much. He is a 4/5 defender you bridge him at 3.5 or long-term at 4. You pay him 5 that's an awful contract now with the potential to not suck later.
Drivesaitl
Finding Hyman
He was a 1/2 defender almost all of last season. In no way on Earth is he ever lower than 3/4 at this point.
Repeat Nurse played the most minutes of any D last season, had the best stats of any D last season, and had the most points of any D last season. He's 23 yrs old.
Let
that
sink
in
The Oilers could sign this guy longterm at say 4.75m and he probably exceeds that worth by next season. if not this one.
He played the most minutes out of all our defenders and we missed the playoffs by a wide margin. That's a glowing review of him.
Did you not watch the games after Christmas when Nurse was awful?
From Christmas on...Nurse was not great for our defenders...(based on 15+ games in that span)
TOI: 1st
Corsi: 5th
Shots for %: 4th
Goals for %: 2nd
Fenwick: 4th
So he was our 4th best defensemen stats wise for the most part behind Benning, Larsson and Klefbom while Russell and Sekera fell apart.
That's not a glowing endorsement. Yeah the first half he looked really good. Not sign long term at 5 mill good, especially because he was bad longer than he was good but most of you tuned out by Christmas anyways
TOI: 1st
Corsi: 5th
Shots for %: 4th
Goals for %: 2nd
Fenwick: 4th
So he was our 4th best defensemen stats wise for the most part behind Benning, Larsson and Klefbom while Russell and Sekera fell apart.
That's not a glowing endorsement. Yeah the first half he looked really good. Not sign long term at 5 mill good, especially because he was bad longer than he was good but most of you tuned out by Christmas anyways
nexttothemoon
and again...
Karlsson played a lot of minutes and his team missed the playoffs by a mile as well... I guess he can be thrown onto the pile of crap dmen as well.
Making/not making the playoffs is the worst indicator of quality for individual assessments.
You know better than that.
That's why I went into the stats in the next one. Yes Nurse was very good before Christmas, then he was mediocre at best.
People say he has emerged and is worth all this money. 2.5 months of good play means f*** all in the grand scheme of things. I have seen crap players have good few month stretches and thats it.
Nurse isn't the kind of dman you go long term with. His potential isn't high enough and his offensive game isn't there enough either. You don't go long term at that number for a potential #3
nexttothemoon
and again...
Fenwick/shots/corsi all measure essentially the same thing... no point in putting up essentially the same stat 3 times.
RelT GF% and RelT xGF% are the two stats that actually reveal what happens on the scoreboard... and looking at the full season he was the best Oilers dman facing tough minutes.
He took an undeniable major step forward last season. Another season like that and his value will be much higher than ~$5 million longer term.
RelT GF% and RelT xGF% are the two stats that actually reveal what happens on the scoreboard... and looking at the full season he was the best Oilers dman facing tough minutes.
He took an undeniable major step forward last season. Another season like that and his value will be much higher than ~$5 million longer term.
McDavid also said pretty clearly the other day, Nurse is part of the long term core here and he needs to stay when asked about Nurse's contract discussions.
So yeah. There's that too. Connor is best buds with Darnell.
The problem is if you bridge Nurse and the cap keeps rising, his ask is almost certainly going to be higher in 2 years time.
So yeah. There's that too. Connor is best buds with Darnell.
The problem is if you bridge Nurse and the cap keeps rising, his ask is almost certainly going to be higher in 2 years time.
nexttothemoon
and again...
I do agree that we don't yet know what we have in Nurse. He hasn't even played 200 games yet... so of course he's not a finished product.
The point to tying him up at something near the $5 million range (less if they can do it... but I think $5 million is likely as low as his agent would go in a rising cap environment) for long term is the same as was done with Klefbom/Larsson(by NJ).
You lock him up at a cost slightly more than current value but less than he will be worth longer term if he pans out the way he is projecting/trending.
Even if he plateaus as a 25 pt dman with decent defense and physicality... you have a Matheson type dman and likely still very moveable down the line at $5 million.
If he takes a step up though... you are laughing with a value contract that will be cheap in 3-4 years.
I thinks it's unlikely he takes a step down... but worst case, if he does and say he stays at the sub 20 pt level... well he's slightly overpaid... but he's not 35... he's 23 so you'd have a slightly overpaid #4 defensively sound dman in his prime. There are a hell of a lot worse assets than that in the NHL.
The point to tying him up at something near the $5 million range (less if they can do it... but I think $5 million is likely as low as his agent would go in a rising cap environment) for long term is the same as was done with Klefbom/Larsson(by NJ).
You lock him up at a cost slightly more than current value but less than he will be worth longer term if he pans out the way he is projecting/trending.
Even if he plateaus as a 25 pt dman with decent defense and physicality... you have a Matheson type dman and likely still very moveable down the line at $5 million.
If he takes a step up though... you are laughing with a value contract that will be cheap in 3-4 years.
I thinks it's unlikely he takes a step down... but worst case, if he does and say he stays at the sub 20 pt level... well he's slightly overpaid... but he's not 35... he's 23 so you'd have a slightly overpaid #4 defensively sound dman in his prime. There are a hell of a lot worse assets than that in the NHL.
Did you watch any games of his last year? I dont think you should be calling him a 4/5 and then calling people out on not watching games.
And your first point is a joke.
Nurse's play definitely fell off after Christmas last year.
Calling Nurse's play after Christmas a 4/5 is quite fair. If you thought he could have lead a second pairing during that stretch I'm not sure what you were watching.
Counter point: Nurse is 23. A 2 year bridge and then an 8 year deal means you get him from ages 23 to 32. A 7/8 year deal right now only gets him to 29/30. That can be the difference between the team getting Toewsed/Seabrooked and the team being able to walk away from him without massive fan backlash.
His play did fall off, he was still our second best D after christmas behind Larsson.
McDNicks17
Moderator
He had ~200 minutes with Russell after Christmas that absolutely destroyed his possession metrics.
He was ~50% in most metrics playing against top competition with Larsson after Christmas.
That doesn't really bode well since Russell is likely to see top 4 minutes at some point for good sized stretches now.
It also goes to show the whole "well we'll just play anyone with Nurse on the 2nd pairing and he'll shelter them just fine" is kinda bunk. Nurse is still a young pup, he needs to be partnered with someone that can carry their fair share, he is not at an age yet where he can "carry" a weaker D partner.
nexttothemoon
and again...
Nurse was solid with both Benning (76.92 GF% together) and Larsson (60.00 GF% together) at ES.
The Nurse-Russell pairing wasn't as good... but not quite the total disaster some are painting here... 18 GF and 21 GA when they were together at ES. Keep in mind also that their zone starts were slanted somewhat to the dzone end so that explains a little of that weakness as well.
The Nurse-Russell pairing wasn't as good... but not quite the total disaster some are painting here... 18 GF and 21 GA when they were together at ES. Keep in mind also that their zone starts were slanted somewhat to the dzone end so that explains a little of that weakness as well.
McDNicks17
Moderator
That was just a small sample size after Christmas.
Before Christmas, Nurse played a similar amount with Russell and they were sitting at a 54.75 CF%, 58 SCF% and 65(!) HDCF%.
So the question is do you get the Nurse/Russell pairing that had close to the best possession metrics in the league, the pairing with lackluster possession metrics when getting a really hard defensive push or something somewhere in between?
joestevens29
Registered User
- Apr 30, 2009
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If only that were true.
Second best D on a bottom five in the league D corps doesn't amount to a whole heck of a lot.
joestevens29
Registered User
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Especially when your competition is a guy with one shoulder, a guy playing the wrong side, a prospect with 60 games under his belt, a bearded giant that isn't really good and Larsson.If only that were true.
Second best D on a bottom five in the league D corps doesn't amount to a whole heck of a lot.
And even then if you look at the advanced stats under Christmas...he was the 4th best defender...behind A prospect with under 60 games under his belt, a guy with one shoulder and Larsson
Jamin
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Thats kinda what I was thinking. If a better dman is giving up UFA years for 6.25 how has Nurse earned 8 years 5.25-5.5 like some of have said.
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