Darnell Nurse - NHL Ready or Not?

[Game 8]

But will it be good for the team? The team absolutely needs to get off to a strong start this season so Nurse cant be a liability out there..
I guess we are going to find out how this will play out..

Strong start for what?

 

[guymez]

Strong start for what?

So you think the start is irrelevant?

 

[oilz89*]

Strong start for what?

For the team to progress and have a good season? You want to be last place again to get McDavid or Eichel or whoever? Getting 18 year olds like that every single year clearly ISN'T work.

For the record I'm sick of some of the people here who still want to get a lottery pick Come on!!! get the team back to how it was during 03-04 and 05-06 years wow enough losing

 

[Wheathead]

For the team to progress and have a good season? You want to be last place again to get McDavid or Eichel or whoever? Getting 18 year olds like that every single year clearly ISN'T work.

For the record I'm sick of some of the people here who still want to get a lottery pick Come on!!! get the team back to how it was during 03-04 and 05-06 years wow enough losing

Any poster here who is an actual fan of the Oilers doesn't want them to tank.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

For the team to progress and have a good season? You want to be last place again to get McDavid or Eichel or whoever? Getting 18 year olds like that every single year clearly ISN'T work.

For the record I'm sick of some of the people here who still want to get a lottery pick Come on!!! get the team back to how it was during 03-04 and 05-06 years wow enough losing

We won't be making that step this year. I would argue we are a far worse team now, than we were during the lockout, in nearly every category:


Hall-Hopkins-Eberle
MPS-Gagner-Yakupov
Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Jones-Belanger-Hartikainen
Petrell/Eager

Smid-Whitney
Schultz-Schultz
Fistric-Petry
Potter




I don't want them to tank. I just want them to focus more on player development, than actual placement in the standings.

:/

3-rookies in the opening lineup means we've already thrown in the towel on the season.

 

[oilz89*]

We won't be making that step this year. I would argue we are a far worse team now, than we were during the lockout, in nearly every category:


Hall-Hopkins-Eberle
MPS-Gagner-Yakupov
Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Jones-Belanger-Hartikainen
Petrell/Eager

Smid-Whitney
Schultz-Schultz
Fistric-Petry
Potter




I don't want them to tank. I just want them to focus more on player development, than actual placement in the standings.

:/

3-rookies in the opening lineup means we've already thrown in the towel on the season.

Tbh i don't think Yakimov's going to be starting in the lineup he might be in the press box. Nurse is most likely only staying until Nikitins back. If Yak finally comes through and Pouliot and Purcell contribute then the team could be better

 

[Game 8]

So you think the start is irrelevant?

Ido you are going somewhere yes! Not the case here..

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

We won't be making that step this year. I would argue we are a far worse team now, than we were during the lockout, in nearly every category:


Hall-Hopkins-Eberle
MPS-Gagner-Yakupov
Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Jones-Belanger-Hartikainen
Petrell/Eager

Smid-Whitney
Schultz-Schultz
Fistric-Petry
Potter




I don't want them to tank. I just want them to focus more on player development, than actual placement in the standings.

:/

3-rookies in the opening lineup means we've already thrown in the towel on the season.

Our top line hasn't changed, but it's got better, Pouliot is better then MPS and Draisaitl is pretty good as well. Smyth had already fallen off so Perron is an improvement, Hemsky didn't work on our team and Purcell has put up as many goals. Our 4th line now is so much better then the one you posted by so much.

Nikitin and Fayne are both better then Smud and Whitney were, Nurse and Klefbom are an improvement over Nick Schultz and Ference is better then Fistric.. Don't get me started with freaking Potter. That and our goalie tandem is also improved.

Only spot that I think we downgraded on is 3c,other then that I can't see how you think the team is worse.

 

[McTedi]

Our top line hasn't changed, but it's got better, Pouliot is better then MPS and Draisaitl is pretty good as well. Smyth had already fallen off so Perron is an improvement, Hemsky didn't work on our team and Purcell has put up as many goals. Our 4th line now is so much better then the one you posted by so much.

Nikitin and Fayne are both better then Smud and Whitney were, Nurse and Klefbom are an improvement over Nick Schultz and Ference is better then Fistric.. Don't get me started with freaking Potter. That and our goalie tandem is also improved.

Only spot that I think we downgraded on is 3c,other then that I can't see how you think the team is worse.

sssshhhh…you're being positive about the Oilers. Quick, save the post by adding "Fire Lowe!"

 

[guymez]

Our top line hasn't changed, but it's got better, Pouliot is better then MPS and Draisaitl is pretty good as well. Smyth had already fallen off so Perron is an improvement, Hemsky didn't work on our team and Purcell has put up as many goals. Our 4th line now is so much better then the one you posted by so much.

Nikitin and Fayne are both better then Smud and Whitney were, Nurse and Klefbom are an improvement over Nick Schultz and Ference is better then Fistric.. Don't get me started with freaking Potter. That and our goalie tandem is also improved.

Only spot that I think we downgraded on is 3c,other then that I can't see how you think the team is worse.

Its not worse and its not even close. Just the development of Hall, Eberle, and RNH makes the team better.


The centre depth is better as well. Gordon is an improvement over Horcoff and Draisaitl should be an improvement over Gagner. RNH is a much better player and Arco is as least as good defensively and is better offensively than the offensive black hole Belanger.

Add in the better defence, better depth on the wings and better goaltending...the improvement becomes pretty obvious.

 

[Playa Hejda]

We've been waiting for the magic of "getting older" to make the team better for years now, hopefully this year is the right year. I'll have to see it to believe it.

 

[guymez]

Ido you are going somewhere yes! Not the case here..

So...you are suggesting that this team is no better than last season?

 

[nexttothemoon]

Well let's not forget that even if this team IS improved over last year (and yes I think they are slightly improved... but not as much as some think)... last years team was outscored by 67 goals and 24 pts out of playoff spot.

Cut that in half and the team is still a dozen pts out of a spot and still outscored by ~33 goals... probably "propelling" the team up to Calgary level from last season who finished 13th in the West.

Shaving 30-40 goals off the goals differential is much easier said than done... and that still only moves the team up 1-2 spots in the West at best. Oilers have to depend on other Western teams crashing and tanking to move up any more than a couple spots.

 

[GreatGretz99]

Well let's not forget that even if this team IS improved over last year (and yes I think they are slightly improved... but not as much as some think)... last years team was outscored by 67 goals and 24 pts out of playoff spot.

Cut that in half and the team is still a dozen pts out of a spot and still outscored by ~33 goals... probably "propelling" the team up to Calgary level from last season who finished 13th in the West.

Shaving 30-40 goals off the goals differential is much easier said than done... and that still only moves the team up 1-2 spots in the West at best. Oilers have to depend on other Western teams crashing and tanking to move up any more than a couple spots.

A large portion of that though, should also be made up right off the bat by not having Dubnyk in net any more. Personally, I think our blue line is pretty bad still (even if it is improved), and Nurse should play another year of Junior just for his development, but just the fact that we have 2 goalies who will/should post better than the 85th ranked GAA and the 80th ranked SV% only because they don't suck, should make up another 30-40 goals right off the top. The team clearly gave up after about Oct when they realized that they were stuck with the goaltending, and I'm hoping this year, given a good goalie from day 1, there's a lot more urgency and effort behind their games.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Scrivens had a 91.6% save pct after arriving in Edmonton.
Fasth similarily had a 91.4% save pct.

If we assume they'll split time in net roughly equally... that's a projection of about 91.5% going forward.

Last season the Oilers had 2686 shots against and let in 257 goals (plus 10 empty net goals against and an extra 3 goals against for shootout losses).

Assuming the same number of shots against... Scrivens and Fasth should let in ~228 goals vs 257 last season. Lets assume the empty net goals goes down as well by a similar pct... so say 9 ENG this season.

Throw in 3 more again for SO losses... total projected goals against... 240.

That's 30 better than last season's total of 270.


Now onto the offensive side...

Last season the Oilers took 2208 shots and scored 199 goals (includes 8 EN goals for) (+4 more for shootout wins) for a total of 203.

They scored 199 goals on 2208 shots which is a shooting % of 9.01%

That's actually a better scoring rate than the league-wide average of 8.89%.

So if they take the same amount of shots as last season... but regressed to the league average last season of 8.89%... they'd score 196 goals + say 1 more empty netter (because they are better this season .. and 4 more again for shootout wins.

Projected total goals for of 201 goals this season.

So 201 for and 240 against. Still a net deficit of 39 goals... probably keeping them in contention for 14th (or 13th at best in the West).

Of course they could turn the tide after 8 years of being outshot... and actually lower the shots against and raise their shots for... which obviously would alter the goals for/against projections dramatically... but I've believe that when I see it after watching them outshot BADLY for 8 years in a row.

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

Scrivens had a 91.6% save pct after arriving in Edmonton.
Fasth similarily had a 91.4% save pct.

If we assume they'll split time in net roughly equally... that's a projection of about 91.5% going forward.

Last season the Oilers had 2686 shots against and let in 257 goals (plus 10 empty net goals against and an extra 3 goals against for shootout losses).

Assuming the same number of shots against... Scrivens and Fasth should let in ~228 goals vs 257 last season. Lets assume the empty net goals goes down as well by a similar pct... so say 9 ENG this season.

Throw in 3 more again for SO losses... total projected goals against... 240.

That's 30 better than last season's total of 270.


Now onto the offensive side...

Last season the Oilers took 2208 shots and scored 199 goals (includes 8 EN goals for) (+4 more for shootout wins) for a total of 203.

They scored 199 goals on 2208 shots which is a shooting % of 9.01%

That's actually a better scoring rate than the league-wide average of 8.89%.

So if they take the same amount of shots as last season... but regressed to the league average last season of 8.89%... they'd score 196 goals + say 1 more empty netter (because they are better this season .. and 4 more again for shootout wins.

Projected total goals for of 201 goals this season.

So 201 for and 240 against. Still a net deficit of 39 goals... probably keeping them in contention for 14th (or 13th at best in the West).

Of course they could turn the tide after 8 years of being outshot... and actually lower the shots against and raise their shots for... which obviously would alter the goals for/against projections dramatically... but I've believe that when I see it after watching them outshot BADLY for 8 years in a row.

Adding Pouliot, Purcell and Draisaitl along with Nikitin and Fayne increases our puck possession which will lead to more shots in net.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Pouliot, Purcell and Fayne had decent numbers last season in terms of shots for/against while they were on the ice. Nikitin... not so much.

Draisiatl I think we'd have to call even at best until we see how he actually performs.

So that's 3 pluses... 1 minus and an even by my count... net of plus 2 for the new additions.

Of course it depends much more on the other players that were already here. Can they improve enough to make the shots needle move towards average instead of being consistently outshot... remains to be seen.

 

[Dorian2]

Adding Pouliot, Purcell and Draisaitl along with Nikitin and Fayne increases our puck possession which will lead to more shots in net.

Not to mention Brad Hunt.

 

[Oilfan2]

Scrivens had a 91.6% save pct after arriving in Edmonton.
Fasth similarily had a 91.4% save pct.

If we assume they'll split time in net roughly equally... that's a projection of about 91.5% going forward.

Last season the Oilers had 2686 shots against and let in 257 goals (plus 10 empty net goals against and an extra 3 goals against for shootout losses).

Assuming the same number of shots against... Scrivens and Fasth should let in ~228 goals vs 257 last season. Lets assume the empty net goals goes down as well by a similar pct... so say 9 ENG this season.

Throw in 3 more again for SO losses... total projected goals against... 240.

That's 30 better than last season's total of 270.


Now onto the offensive side...

Last season the Oilers took 2208 shots and scored 199 goals (includes 8 EN goals for) (+4 more for shootout wins) for a total of 203.

They scored 199 goals on 2208 shots which is a shooting % of 9.01%

That's actually a better scoring rate than the league-wide average of 8.89%.

So if they take the same amount of shots as last season... but regressed to the league average last season of 8.89%... they'd score 196 goals + say 1 more empty netter (because they are better this season .. and 4 more again for shootout wins.

Projected total goals for of 201 goals this season.

So 201 for and 240 against. Still a net deficit of 39 goals... probably keeping them in contention for 14th (or 13th at best in the West).

Of course they could turn the tide after 8 years of being outshot... and actually lower the shots against and raise their shots for... which obviously would alter the goals for/against projections dramatically... but I've believe that when I see it after watching them outshot BADLY for 8 years in a row.

No reason to believe the season will go that way at all. Numbers mean little as there are always huge swings in goal differential, etc. If a team is in the playoffs, odds are they've scored more goals than they've allowed. You put too much stock in it...almost fixated on it really.
Look at goal differential of teams like Anaheim, Vancouver, Colorado, etc, over the last few years even.

You calculated the same amount of shots against, discounting the improvement in Oilers possesion and their overall defence.
You had the Oilers take the same shots, despite the improvment of the lineup, their possesion ability and growth of their top players..namely Hall and RNH. Add in potentials from Yak, Pouliot Schultz, Nikitin, Fayne and Purcell, not to mention Perron, and you could easily see a huge swing.

 

[nexttothemoon]

No reason to believe the season will go that way at all. Numbers mean little as there are always huge swings in goal differential, etc. If a team is in the playoffs, odds are they've scored more goals than they've allowed. You put too much stock in it...almost fixated on it really.
Look at goal differential of teams like Anaheim, Vancouver, Colorado, etc, over the last few years even.

You calculated the same amount of shots against, discounting the improvement in Oilers possesion and their overall defence.
You had the Oilers take the same shots, despite the improvment of the lineup, their possesion ability and growth of their top players..namely Hall and RNH. Add in potentials from Yak, Pouliot Schultz, Nikitin, Fayne and Purcell, not to mention Perron, and you could easily see a huge swing.

Well my last paragraph did state that the shots differential could indeed change which would alter the goals for/against outlook.

Obviously nothing is written in stone BUT this team has been outshot consistently every single year for 8 straight years. Until that trend changes there very likely won't be a positive change in the goals differential either unless goalies have a remarkably good year in terms of save pct or the Oilers shooters suddenly get much more accurate.

Basically I'm assuming there is a definite improvement in the goaltending and a slight improvement in the shots for/against due to the new acquisitions... maybe. We all know the "Ference effect" could occur as well where the additions could regress towards the average of the team that surrounds them. Players can put up above average numbers on better teams... and then regress and look average/mediocre on a poor team.

There's nothing wrong with being optimistic... but realistically it's going to take quite a major improvement in the shots differentials from the players that were already here to make this team anywhere near average.

Not a single player on the Oilers was anywhere close to 50% in shots for/against while they were on the ice last season during 5on5 play so to expect a major shift in that stat department by the majority of players is pretty "ambitious"... and probably unrealistic.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Just to give an idea of the current years lineup + callups/extras in terms of shots for/against ratios (last seasons stats obviously):

Stats from http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Hall(45.8%)-RNH(45.8%)-Eberle(46.1%)
Perron(45.0%)-Arcobello(45.9%)-Yakupov(44.8%)
Pouliot(55.1%)-Draisaitl(?)-Purcell(55.3%)
Hendricks(45.3%)-Gordon(45.5%)-Joensuu(43.1%)

Gazdic(35.0%)-Acton(36.0%)-Lander(42.5%)-Pitlick(38.0%)-Pinizzotto(36.7%)

Nikitin(48.2%)-Fayne(54.6%)
Klefbom(46.5%)-Petry(45.6%)
Ference(42.6%)-Schultz(42.9%)
Nurse(?)

Hunt(?)-Marincin(46.0%)
Aulie(46.0%)

We need to see a paradigm shift somehow to see most of those players move towards 50%.

I think a huge part of that will be the systems/coaching and I don't know if Eakins has it in him based on what we saw last season... but hopefully Ramsay IS the saviour we all think he may be.

 

[guymez]

Ido you are going somewhere yes! Not the case here..

It seems to me that improving IS going somewhere as in going in a positive direction.

Not sure at all what you are trying to get across here.

 

[tiger_80]

Well let's not forget that even if this team IS improved over last year (and yes I think they are slightly improved... but not as much as some think)... last years team was outscored by 67 goals and 24 pts out of playoff spot.

Cut that in half and the team is still a dozen pts out of a spot and still outscored by ~33 goals... probably "propelling" the team up to Calgary level from last season who finished 13th in the West.

Shaving 30-40 goals off the goals differential is much easier said than done... and that still only moves the team up 1-2 spots in the West at best. Oilers have to depend on other Western teams crashing and tanking to move up any more than a couple spots.

Let's see what happens. There are a lot of new faces who may completely change the whole dynamics and identity of the team. Compared with the start of last season: in Scrivens, Fasth, Hendricks, Pouliot, Purcell, Draisatl, Fayne, Nikitin, Nurse, Klefbom.

Out Gagner, Hemsky, Smyth, Smid, Potter among others.

That's a substantially different team compared to last year and projecting its results on paper is pretty pointless at this time.

 

[Homesick]

Well let's not forget that even if this team IS improved over last year (and yes I think they are slightly improved... but not as much as some think)... last years team was outscored by 67 goals and 24 pts out of playoff spot.

Cut that in half and the team is still a dozen pts out of a spot and still outscored by ~33 goals... probably "propelling" the team up to Calgary level from last season who finished 13th in the West.

Shaving 30-40 goals off the goals differential is much easier said than done... and that still only moves the team up 1-2 spots in the West at best. Oilers have to depend on other Western teams crashing and tanking to move up any more than a couple spots.

Scrivens allowed 62 goals in 21 games
Dubnyk allowed 94 goals in 32 games.
The only difference is the Oilers were allowing more shots on Scrivens and he could make a few more saves. So it really doesn't matter if goaltending has improved because if the end result is 3 GA then we lose a lot of games yet again
If the Oilers scoring(hello PP! anyone home?) doesn't drastically increase there will be a McDavid/Eichel thread in January