Daniel Sedin's Struggles

[Zarpan]

He has something like 17 goals in his last 70 regular season games. How big of a sample size do you need?

As per some NHL numbers guys:

"Luck dominates single-season results because the sample size is so small - 82 games, a limited number of iterations to allow for the skill signal to separate itself from the noise of the season."

http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/1/18/nhl-48-game-schedule-2013-luck

Aside from that, if you do a binomial distribution for 18 goals on the last 212 shots (which I believe is what Daniel has done over the last 70 regular season games), the confidence interval is 5.1% to 13.1%, which encompasses his 12% career shooting percentage.

The conclusion is that you can't say that Daniel's true shooting percentage has actually declined.

Looking at the numbers a different way, a 12% career shooter can go through 70 game periods where they take 3 shots per game and score anywhere from around 16 to 36 goals.

This is nearly the flip-side of his 2010-2011 season. His expected range for that season was around 22 to 44 goals, and he ended up near the top end for that. Both that season and this latest 70 game stretch fall within the confidence interval ranges for a 12% shooter though.

Shooting percentage doesn't tend to fall too drastically with age. Naslund was still an 11% shooter in his last season with the Rangers. Usually declining SOG is more of a signal of trouble.

 

[Alflives*]

I agree Henrik is the better player for sure, and anyone who argues that hasn't been clearly watching them objectively lately. But Daniel is still a top 3 LW'er in the NHL and far from a 3rd liner.

Maybe, splitting the twins would allow each of them to be set up guys, and thus make the overall offense better?

How do you see the top 2 lines, if Henrick is on the first line, and Daniel is on the second line?

 

[dave babych returns]

These discussions are impossible, because each player ages differently, so you can't apply a blanket aging-regression formula to players.

If only we had a genetically identical Daniel Sedin that we could compare him to. Ideally they'd need to play on the same team (perhaps even the same line?), so that you could eliminate a bunch of variables. Then you'd have some idea whether Daniel was going cold because he's too old, or whether it was just a spot of bad luck.

Imagine he was struggling but his genetic clone was still passing crisply and settling pucks with ease -- then people wouldn't have to argue about this, because anyone attributing this to some collossal aging effect would look like really silly!!!!

Posts like this are the only consolation for the fact that this board is a haven for certain individuals who repeat the same tripe without any factual basis or logical foundation over and over and over again.

 

[Addison Rae]

Maybe, splitting the twins would allow each of them to be set up guys, and thus make the overall offense better?

How do you see the top 2 lines, if Henrick is on the first line, and Daniel is on the second line?

I'd prefer to keep them together and bring in a play maker like Ray Whitney for Kesler. If we had to break them up I'd go with this.

Burrows - H.Sedin -Kassian
Daniel - Kesler - Booth

 

[Toxic0n]

I cannot believe this discussion. It is obvious this board is full of children. Well, kids, let me tell you what...older does not mean wrinkles and thin hair. Older means slower. Slower movements and reactions do not benefit a sniper. Much of what is wrong with Daniel is slower movements. His passes aren't as sharp or timely, his shots aren't snapping off and he can't settle the puck like he used to. He is an old, failing sniper.

No amount of conditioning will refresh the brain. Kieth didn't make Daniel's brain slower, being in his mid thirties did it. Kieth is a POS in a S league that doesn't care about players. The fact that the bench didn't empty is shocking and explains why this team does not have any rings. Not enough fight, too much surrender.

Re-signing the Sedins is foolish. Do not think you are arguing by quoting stats from only a few years ago. You are arguing a moot point. It does not matter what the Sedins did four years ago. It does not matter how much money they gave to Children's Hospital. It only matters what they can do on the ice today. The Sedins are very smart and know this. They will accept a reasonable deal or they will go play for MODO.

Canucks do not attract players. This is a pariah team. Nobody is coming here to provide secondary scoring and take the heat off the twins. Nobody. The twins will be the engine of this team until they leave, then the team will become like the 2011 Oilers, young and kind of weak with an old goalie.

Really, the Sedins are in their last season here. They can rejoin a failing franchise, or they can go play for Detroit. I am guessing it's Sweden, though. Sweden is also a serious threat in the Olympics, this time. If the Swedes win gold, what's left for the Sedins in Vancouver? This team has no chance in the playoffs. There is no upside to the Canucks any more. That's over.

Jesus Christ, so much fail in one post. You are always banging your drum about how "the Canucks never attract free agents" and now you added a bunch more drivel on top. Oh man

 

[Wolfhard]

Shooting percentage doesn't tend to fall too drastically with age. Naslund was still an 11% shooter in his last season with the Rangers. Usually declining SOG is more of a signal of trouble.

Which basically backs up the age old hockey rule. "Don't worry when a player isn't getting goals. Worry when he isn't getting chances"

Daniel is still getting chances. He'll start burying them again once he settles.
Last year is a horrible one to use as a gauge for most of the players on the team as offense was down across the board, and neither Sedin was being used effectively.
Much of the team was playing in a defensive shell most of the time, as opposed to the deadly offense, destroying other teams off the rush that we had a few years ago. Those teams are the ones that some posters are pulling Daniels stats from? Not a fair comparison in my opinion.

 

[Alflives*]

Posts like this are the only consolation for the fact that this board is a haven for certain individuals who repeat the same tripe without any factual basis or logical foundation over and over and over again.

I have read this response from you several times already, over and over.

 

[Alflives*]

I'd prefer to keep them together and bring in a play maker like Ray Whitney for Kesler. If we had to break them up I'd go with this.

Burrows - H.Sedin -Kassian
Daniel - Kesler - Booth

Oh. Interesting lines. Kassian looked okay in his last couple of games. It would be HUGE for the team if Kassian could play top line minutes. For what Booth is paid, he has to play second line. It's too bad he is playing more like a 3rd or 4th line guy. Maybe having Daniel on that wing would help a guy like Booth produce? Putting Kassian and Booth on those two lines would move BIG bodies into the top six. The Canucks definitely need big bodies playing more minutes.

 

[Proto]

Posts like this are the only consolation for the fact that this board is a haven for certain individuals who repeat the same tripe without any factual basis or logical foundation over and over and over again.

I don't mind people that completely disagree with me, provided they're willing to argue about it honestly. I just hate when it becomes dogmatic nonsense (that's not directed at anyone in particular). Everyone needs their tires deflated now and again -- including me! Though I love it when someone proves me wrong... well, after some reflection I do, anyway

Find more pleasure in intelligent dissent than in passive agreement, for, if you value intelligence as you should, the former implies a deeper agreement than the latter. - Bertrand Russell

 

[dave babych returns]

I have read this response from you several times already, over and over.

Unlike the posts which inspired my response, the thoughts I expressed there have and will continue to be justified by a large and ever expanding body of evidence..

Find more pleasure in intelligent dissent than in passive agreement, for, if you value intelligence as you should, the former implies a deeper agreement than the latter. - Bertrand Russell

Greate quote, I agree

naughty

 

[Alflives*]

Unlike the posts which inspired my response, the thoughts I expressed there have and will continue to be justified by a large and ever expanding body of evidence..

Is the body of evidence the Canuck's current roster?

 

[Karl Hungus]

Both Sedins have been less effective since our PP slipped from it's lethal state from a couple seasons ago. That's partly due to their declining play but also the fact that they don't have other puck movers and shooters to really play with. There are too many guys on our PP that are not high % shooters who really need some breaks to bury a puck. Ehrhoff and Samuelsson were both deadly shooters when they were on their game as much as I like Burrows, Higgins, etc, they just don't manufacture goals the same way.

People are talking about how Daniel was in a slump prior to the Keith Elbow. How was Henrik doing by comparison? I have a feeling he was struggling as well. Now that Henrik has bounced back why can't Daniel do the same? Maybe it's the lasting effects of the Keith elbow. If Henrik keeps his good play up I think a resurgence from Daniel is around the corner.

Lastly, I think we will rue the day we let these guys walk if it comes to that. I don't see the Sedin's overstaying their welcome. They've always struck me as the kind of players that would go home in their mid/late 30s instead of hanging around into their 40s because they can't give up the NHL life.

 

[cutcopy]

Can Daniel's lack of awesomeness (in comparison to henrik) be due to the fact that he and his brother play different positions?

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

Can Daniel's lack of awesomeness (in comparison to henrik) be due to the fact that he and his brother play different positions?

I think it's Henrik that is the weaker player.

He's just such a good leader that he switched uniforms will Daniel so that the team was being led by the superior player.

Just another classy selfless Swede.

 

[Proto]

Greate quote, I agree

naughty

But you probably agree aggressively!

 

[Dissonance]

Both Sedins have been less effective since our PP slipped from it's lethal state from a couple seasons ago. That's partly due to their declining play but also the fact that they don't have other puck movers and shooters to really play with. There are too many guys on our PP that are not high % shooters who really need some breaks to bury a puck. Ehrhoff and Samuelsson were both deadly shooters when they were on their game as much as I like Burrows, Higgins, etc, they just don't manufacture goals the same way.

This is an underrated factor, I think. During their Art Ross years the Sedins were absolutely dominant on the power play. They've been a lot less effective since Ehrhoff left and we haven't found anyone to quarterback the powerplay since.

Daniel's PP numbers in particular have really suffered over the last two years. He put up 42 points on the power play in 2011. Last year he was on pace for just 20. That's the difference between a top-10 scorer and a decent first-line forward.

 

[SighReally]

As per some NHL numbers guys:

"Luck dominates single-season results because the sample size is so small - 82 games, a limited number of iterations to allow for the skill signal to separate itself from the noise of the season."

http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/1/18/nhl-48-game-schedule-2013-luck

Aside from that, if you do a binomial distribution for 18 goals on the last 212 shots (which I believe is what Daniel has done over the last 70 regular season games), the confidence interval is 5.1% to 13.1%, which encompasses his 12% career shooting percentage.

The conclusion is that you can't say that Daniel's true shooting percentage has actually declined.

Looking at the numbers a different way, a 12% career shooter can go through 70 game periods where they take 3 shots per game and score anywhere from around 16 to 36 goals.

This is nearly the flip-side of his 2010-2011 season. His expected range for that season was around 22 to 44 goals, and he ended up near the top end for that. Both that season and this latest 70 game stretch fall within the confidence interval ranges for a 12% shooter though.

Shooting percentage doesn't tend to fall too drastically with age. Naslund was still an 11% shooter in his last season with the Rangers. Usually declining SOG is more of a signal of trouble.

Great post. Shooters go through periods of droughts (I remember it took a good deal of games for Kessel to score his first last year) and it's only when the shooter isn't getting good looks or isn't getting enough shots on the net (like Booth) we should start getting concerned. Daniel's had good looks in each of the games I've seen and were foiled by either flubbing on the puck or getting checked (and hooked which the refs refuse to call but whatever). His shooting percentage statistically speaking should jump if we fix the powerplay and puck luck improves for D Sedin.

 

[jimslob]

Knucklehead wrote:


I woud do 4 years.

year 1 - 9 mil
year 2 - 6.5 mil
year 3 - 5 mil
year 4 - 4.5 mil

AAV 6.25 million, I'd do it in a heartbeat, especilly since I wouldn't be paying out my own money!

This is a contract I proposed on a different forum.

I think this would be a steal for two of the top 15 forwards in the NHL, yes the combined cap hit would be 12.5 million but that would only be .3 million more than their current hit.

 

[BobbyJazzLegs]

He just gets hung out to dry a bit with Santorelli and Hansen. He just needs a better centre. He lit it up with Kes in the Calgary game, but Torts keeps giving Kesler to Henrik...

Daniel, Higgins and Kesler are playing too well to be this snakebit all year.

 

[Tanevian*]

Apparently concussions are so bad they can affect your play a month before you even get injured.

Well put! It makes far more sense that a short slump was a sign that his game had totally changed as opposed to a concussion that may or may not be lingering.

Keep up the good work!!! You are a shining light in Canuck nation.

 

[MikeK]

Haven't followed the thread but I don't think he's been the same players since his concussion. The Canucks have been fairly lucky in the concussion department and I think our fans have been sheltered from just how bad they can be to a player moving forward. Add his age into the mix and it really shouldn't be a surprise that his play has tailed off. I know they are so loved around here, rightfully so, so it will be hard for some to come to terms with it, but I have no doubt we've seen the best from both Sedin's. This is going to be an ongoing theme around here moving forward simply because we are so use to a high level of production that just isn't going to come, at least not at the same level it has been the past few seasons. If the Canucks sign these guys for longer then 3-4 years they are completely out of their collective minds.

A few of us have been saying for the better part of a year that the Canucks are at that point where their core players are past their prime, or coming back from injuries, and they are just not the team they were 2-3 seasons ago. Look at all these young teams in the league that are taking the next step. I think we have some great young players coming up but the here and now is going to be frustrating for many around here. This is a .500 hockey club... win a cpl lose a cpl is going to be the theme.

Agree or disagree, it really doesn't matter to me. The end result will speak for itself.

 

[yoss]

These discussions are impossible, because each player ages differently, so you can't apply a blanket aging-regression formula to players.

If only we had a genetically identical Daniel Sedin that we could compare him to. Ideally they'd need to play on the same team (perhaps even the same line?), so that you could eliminate a bunch of variables. Then you'd have some idea whether Daniel was going cold because he's too old, or whether it was just a spot of bad luck.

Imagine he was struggling but his genetic clone was still passing crisply and settling pucks with ease -- then people wouldn't have to argue about this, because anyone attributing this to some collossal aging effect would look really silly!!!!

I've fantasized darkly about some article in the future relating to sports safety that is published examining the effects of concussions on pro athletes and looking at Daniel's pre- and post concussion point production numbers in contrast to Henrik to give validity to their study about the negative consequences of head injuries in relation to decreased athletic ability & performance.

**** you Keith you POS.

Anyways, hope Danny gets it rolling. 8 points in 10 games ain't bad, but he looks just a step off lately in terms of burying goals like he used to, and being dominant and in sync on the cycle. Hope it is simply bad luck or a normal kind of scoring slump.

 

[groovygoodwine]

Knucklehead wrote:


I woud do 4 years.

year 1 - 9 mil
year 2 - 6.5 mil
year 3 - 5 mil
year 4 - 4.5 mil

AAV 6.25 million, I'd do it in a heartbeat, especilly since I wouldn't be paying out my own money!

This is a contract I proposed on a different forum.

I think this would be a steal for two of the top 15 forwards in the NHL, yes the combined cap hit would be 12.5 million but that would only be .3 million more than their current hit.

I'd love that, and you describe it correctly when you said it would be a steal. However, you'd have to imagine that JP Barry is asking for a cap hit north of 7.5, around 8.0 as a starting point. Of course they'll work around term and try and bring that hit down a bit. I'd be surprised and very pleased if the Sedins signed for less than 7 mill a year. The Sedins are the core of the team, already took a discount, cap is going up, other players with similar importance (but perhaps more success) have just been signed around the 8 mark.

I think we might find ourselves in a bind with this one.

 

[dave babych returns]

But you probably agree aggressively!

You don't even know; I punched my monitor I was so angry I couldn't disagree with that quote.

 

[BobbyJazzLegs]

Daniel, Higgins and Kesler are playing too well to be this snakebit all year.