Dallas Stars 2020-2021

M88K

irreverent
May 24, 2014
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If we're giving up Faksa I'd hope we'd get more than just Puljujarvi.

Maybe it's just me but killorn isn't worth dumping a 1st round pick for, then again with McDonnell and dumping Cogliano the 1st doesn't have much value in our hands anyway.

Team would suffer from the same issues as the last few. Limited scoring options. Albeit with a weaker defensive play from the 3rd line as a result of Faksa trade.


Also if we did this we'd not pick until the 4th round. With how deep this draft is I'd think there's a lesser chance McDonnell and crew screw it up as badly as they do most years. Though it's probably wishful thinking.
 
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Stars27

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Aug 23, 2013
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If we're giving up Faksa I'd hope we'd get more than just Puljujarvi.

Maybe it's just me but killorn isn't worth dumping a 1st round pick for, then again with McDonnell and dumping Cogliano the 1st doesn't have much value in our hands anyway.

Team would suffer from the same issues as the last few. Limited scoring options. Albeit with a weaker defensive play from the 3rd line as a result of Faksa trade.


Also if we did this we'd not pick until the 4th round. With how deep this draft is I'd think there's a lesser chance McDonnell and crew screw it up as badly as they do most years. Though it's probably wishful thinking.

IMO, I find Faksa to be expendable based on the increase he's going to get on his next contract and my belief that Dickinson can replace him in that role. If you don't think Puljujarvi is enough, I'd be ok to move him for futures, maybe pick up some other picks in the draft.

I think Killorn would compliment our forward core greatly with his versatility and experience. I understand he's coming off a career year but he's signed at a great rate for 2 more years. If we can dump Cogliano as well, then it's a no-brainer for me. You could maybe even replace Killorn with Johnson, Gourde, Palat however their contracts are more expensive and longer.

I disagree with limited scoring options...you have 3 balanced lines with both Hintz and Gurianov a year more experienced. I think it will depend on those 2 taking the next step but lots of scoring options IMO.

Agreed on the picks, tough pill to swallow but this team is built to win now and I'd take that chance. Maybe take a 3rd from EDM along with Puljujarvi for Faksa and Honka if you're that worried about not having a pick until the 4th round
 

M88K

irreverent
May 24, 2014
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IMO, I find Faksa to be expendable based on the increase he's going to get on his next contract and my belief that Dickinson can replace him in that role. If you don't think Puljujarvi is enough, I'd be ok to move him for futures, maybe pick up some other picks in the draft.

I think Killorn would compliment our forward core greatly with his versatility and experience. I understand he's coming off a career year but he's signed at a great rate for 2 more years. If we can dump Cogliano as well, then it's a no-brainer for me. You could maybe even replace Killorn with Johnson, Gourde, Palat however their contracts are more expensive and longer.

I disagree with limited scoring options...you have 3 balanced lines with both Hintz and Gurianov a year more experienced. I think it will depend on those 2 taking the next step but lots of scoring options IMO.

Agreed on the picks, tough pill to swallow but this team is built to win now and I'd take that chance. Maybe take a 3rd from EDM along with Puljujarvi for Faksa and Honka if you're that worried about not having a pick until the 4th round

Faksa is expendable, Dickinson is not an equivalent replacement currently but that's not a major issue .
But you're putting too much faith in Benn, he's closer to being a 3rd liner at this point in his career than anything.
So you're running Seguin, who struggled himself, with declining Benn, and a guy who can't create without utilizing his footspeed.
Both of Seguin and more so Benn aren't particularly fast anymore(never was in the latter case) .
You're basically putting Seguin in the positing to have to do, well everything, himself.
Which is fine but, as shown this year, his numbers will take a hit because of it. On top of his wingers being the 2 of the most lackadaisical in their own zone on the team. I wouldn't call it balanced.
You'll have a situation where Gurianov has to slow down for them to keep up. Making him useless, or where they're getting pinned down quite a bit because it's Seguin and nothing else.

The hypothetical 2nd line is the most intriguing but while Hintz isn't horrible in the defensive zone, Radulov and Robertson(who would be a rookie) aren't particularly strong.
You also have another situation where a lot of what Hintz creates comes from his speed and neither winger is particularly fast, but at least Robertson has strong hockey IQ to likely be able to make up for it (provided an adjustment period which can take a while for some young guys)

The 3rd line is a big question mark.
Killorn would be better suited with Seguin, but setting aside that.
What you get in Puljujarvi is completely unknown but his strengths have never been suited for a bottom 6 role.
And then you have Pavelski, who might rebound a bit for this disastrous year, or decline further or keep status quo.

Then you have a line that will spend almost zero time in the offensive zone. Which is fine.
But that roster construction isn't much more than what we have now.
Killorn would be an upgrade. Hintz is a year better, maybe Gurianov discovers a hockey IQ somewhere.
But you're still contending with further decline of Benn, Rads and likely pavelski. While adding another 30+ in Killorn. And who knows with Seguin . I'm sure this year is largely an outlier for his production. Combo of the horrible Monty/bones systems and just bad luck but again you're counting on rebounds from all of

Benn, Seguin, pavelski, Radulov.

Immediate production from
Puljujarvi, Dellandrea, robertson

And improvement from
Hintz, Gurianov.

And sustained play from Killorn, who has typical been a 40p player and will be 31 before the POs end.

That's a lot to ask for to go right.

Nothing against Killorn just don't see him as worth a first, especially since Tampa has to dump someone to sign chirelli and sergachev not to mention full or the roster. He'd be a good add just not worth a 1st imo.

Obviously anything that involves getting rid of Cogliano is always a great idea but again as horrible as he is Not worth spending a 1st for one season.
 
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Stars27

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Faksa is expendable, Dickinson is not an equivalent replacement currently but that's not a major issue .
But you're putting too much faith in Benn, he's closer to being a 3rd liner at this point in his career than anything.
So you're running Seguin, who struggled himself, with declining Benn, and a guy who can't create without utilizing his footspeed.
Both of Seguin and more so Benn aren't particularly fast anymore(never was in the latter case) .
You're basically putting Seguin in the positing to have to do, well everything, himself.
Which is fine but, as shown this year, his numbers will take a hit because of it. On top of his wingers being the 2 of the most lackadaisical in their own zone on the team. I wouldn't call it balanced.
You'll have a situation where Gurianov has to slow down for them to keep up. Making him useless, or where they're getting pinned down quite a bit because it's Seguin and nothing else.

The hypothetical 2nd line is the most intriguing but while Hintz isn't horrible in the defensive zone, Radulov and Robertson(who would be a rookie) aren't particularly strong.
You also have another situation where a lot of what Hintz creates comes from his speed and neither winger is particularly fast, but at least Robertson has strong hockey IQ to likely be able to make up for it (provided an adjustment period which can take a while for some young guys)

The 3rd line is a big question mark.
Killorn would be better suited with Seguin, but setting aside that.
What you get in Puljujarvi is completely unknown but his strengths have never been suited for a bottom 6 role.
And then you have Pavelski, who might rebound a bit for this disastrous year, or decline further or keep status quo.

Then you have a line that will spend almost zero time in the offensive zone. Which is fine.
But that roster construction isn't much more than what we have now.
Killorn would be an upgrade. Hintz is a year better, maybe Gurianov discovers a hockey IQ somewhere.
But you're still contending with further decline of Benn, Rads and likely pavelski. While adding another 30+ in Killorn. And who knows with Seguin . I'm sure this year is largely an outlier for his production. Combo of the horrible Monty/bones systems and just bad luck but again you're counting on rebounds from all of

Benn, Seguin, pavelski, Radulov.

Immediate production from
Puljujarvi, Dellandrea, robertson

And improvement from
Hintz, Gurianov.

And sustained play from Killorn, who has typical been a 40p player and will be 31 before the POs end.

That's a lot to ask for to go right.

Nothing against Killorn just don't see him as worth a first, especially since Tampa has to dump someone to sign chirelli and sergachev not to mention full or the roster. He'd be a good add just not worth a 1st imo.

Obviously anything that involves getting rid of Cogliano is always a great idea but again as horrible as he is Not worth spending a 1st for one season.

You sir, are quite the pessimist :)

The current makeup of the team has us firmly and comfortably in a playoff spot this year and no indication for that to change next year. If you want to juggle the lines to make more sense, go for it. I think the trades and the emergence of some of the younger players will provide this team with flexibility, even with some declining vets. The next 2 years would see Pavelski, Radulov and Killorn come off the books which frees up significant cap so I'm not overly worried about that. The window is now and over the next couple of years IMO so let's go for it.
 

M88K

irreverent
May 24, 2014
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You sir, are quite the pessimist :)

The current makeup of the team has us firmly and comfortably in a playoff spot this year and no indication for that to change next year. If you want to juggle the lines to make more sense, go for it. I think the trades and the emergence of some of the younger players will provide this team with flexibility, even with some declining vets. The next 2 years would see Pavelski, Radulov and Killorn come off the books which frees up significant cap so I'm not overly worried about that. The window is now and over the next couple of years IMO so let's go for it.
I am but in my defense, nills decisions have by and large given me tons of reason to be.

Also I don't know if I'd say comfortably in a PO spot. The way the team was trending if not for covid we'd likely be a wildcard team at best
 

Arkham32

Registered User
Nov 9, 2012
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And then you have Pavelski, who might rebound a bit for this disastrous year, or decline further or keep status quo.

I think this take can be used for pretty much every sports athlete in the world for next year they might get better, get worse, or stay the same. The biggest issue is the system if we get a more offensive minded system in place and nothing changes thats when I will start getting worried.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

Registered User
May 20, 2014
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From Shapiro on the Athletic:

The most effective line throughout Stars training camp has been the much-talked-about FCC unit of Andrew Cogliano, Radek Faksa and Blake Comeau. That trio is one of the NHL’s best pure checking lines, and on Tuesday the FCC line carried the puck into the zone more frequently than those headed by Tyler Seguin or Joe Pavelski.

Oy! Got to wonder if Faksa is really that expendable. Also, got to wonder if our offensive guns are anywhere good enough. I think we know from the low scoring games that they aren't.

Another interesting observation is other teams agree with Stars fans - both would like to see the FCC line on the ice less often, LOL. Or, as he puts it, when the FCC line is on the ice, nothing happens for either side, shortening the game to 40-45 minutes of time to make a difference.
 

AveryStar4Eva

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Aug 28, 2014
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Even though it’s a little old school I don’t mind the checking line they seem do well at neutralizing the top lines they did really well against Nashville last year which shows their value in the playoffs. I don’t see Faksa getting a huge contract maybe 3.500 max so that line making around 9.2M and Cogs/Comeau off the books after next season isn’t a huge deal
 
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FirstRowUpperDeck

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Yeah, and that $3.5 or whatever will replace Cogs or Comeau when their contracts are up. Those two are 33/34 and when signed 2 years ago, were probably overpaid a bit as UFA for their veteran presence, but if a team needed forwards, they were probably worth it then, and then as all 30+ players, starting to decline ever so slightly. But that remains one of the better checking lines in the league, and a total of even $11 Million for those guys next year isn't too far out of line, considering our so called top scoring line is making $9.5/9.5/6= $25 Mil or twice that. Seems about the right ratio between first and third lines.

That stat about the FCC line having the most offensive zone puck entries explains why coach uses them for more minutes than the typical fan thinks he should.
 

Sports2

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Jul 1, 2018
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From Shapiro on the Athletic:

The most effective line throughout Stars training camp has been the much-talked-about FCC unit of Andrew Cogliano, Radek Faksa and Blake Comeau. That trio is one of the NHL’s best pure checking lines, and on Tuesday the FCC line carried the puck into the zone more frequently than those headed by Tyler Seguin or Joe Pavelski.

Oy! Got to wonder if Faksa is really that expendable. Also, got to wonder if our offensive guns are anywhere good enough. I think we know from the low scoring games that they aren't.

Another interesting observation is other teams agree with Stars fans - both would like to see the FCC line on the ice less often, LOL. Or, as he puts it, when the FCC line is on the ice, nothing happens for either side, shortening the game to 40-45 minutes of time to make a difference.
I wonder who that says more about. I guess we’ll find out.
 

Smelling Salt

Busey is life
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We all know about Benn's horrible giveaways in the neutral zone/on zone entries so this is no surprise to me. Seguin isn't great at it either, but he's more of a "Shit I just ran out of room" kind of turnover guy. I have no idea if the fancy stats bear this out, but this is what my VERY KEEN, WORLD CLASS EYE SITE tells me.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

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The hard part, perhaps fallacy of Bones emphasis on zone entry, is yes, you need great zone entries rates, but then, you also need to put the puck in the net. For several years, I imagine the Seguin/Benn/Rads line was pretty great at both.

Looks like Bones is trying to build lines out of similar players in terms of speed/toughness/defense/puck possession. Wonder if that really works better than a balance of each on each line? It probably works better on home ice because it seems the matchups would be more critical to make the most of those combined talents, but statistically, I don't know.
 
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JesusNPucks

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From Shapiro on the Athletic:

The most effective line throughout Stars training camp has been the much-talked-about FCC unit of Andrew Cogliano, Radek Faksa and Blake Comeau. That trio is one of the NHL’s best pure checking lines, and on Tuesday the FCC line carried the puck into the zone more frequently than those headed by Tyler Seguin or Joe Pavelski.

Oy! Got to wonder if Faksa is really that expendable. Also, got to wonder if our offensive guns are anywhere good enough. I think we know from the low scoring games that they aren't.

Another interesting observation is other teams agree with Stars fans - both would like to see the FCC line on the ice less often, LOL. Or, as he puts it, when the FCC line is on the ice, nothing happens for either side, shortening the game to 40-45 minutes of time to make a difference.
Thanks for posting. That just tells me that they should "sell high". I belligerently (and a bit jokingly) maintain that Faksa and other 3rd/4th liners are generally replaceable. Dallas has a lot of "kids" that need playing time.
 
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FirstRowUpperDeck

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Thanks for posting. That just tells me that they should "sell high". I belligerently (and a bit jokingly) maintain that Faksa and other 3rd/4th liners are generally replaceable. Dallas has a lot of "kids" that need playing time.

Dallas also has a lot of vets that need playing time, specifically in the victorious Stanley Cup finals. Now is not the time to jettison a reliable vet in his prime because you think he will be paid maybe $750K more than you think he should, maybe $1Mil more, just to get the kids some playing time. If Ty does beat someone out, let it be Cogs or Comeau, or Perry. That would upgrade that checking line or the bruiser line.

Once he actually IS the near equal to Faksa, then maybe you make the trade, but when in the theoretical SC window, you don't just keep churning players and stick unproven rookies in key roles, unless you absolutely have to.
 

Stars27

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Dallas also has a lot of vets that need playing time, specifically in the victorious Stanley Cup finals. Now is not the time to jettison a reliable vet in his prime because you think he will be paid maybe $750K more than you think he should, maybe $1Mil more, just to get the kids some playing time. If Ty does beat someone out, let it be Cogs or Comeau, or Perry. That would upgrade that checking line or the bruiser line.

Once he actually IS the near equal to Faksa, then maybe you make the trade, but when in the theoretical SC window, you don't just keep churning players and stick unproven rookies in key roles, unless you absolutely have to.

Fair enough. My issue is the raise that Faksa will get this year might be too costly for the Stars in that it won't allow them to spend elsewhere. Part of my thought process is:

Faksa and Cogliano
or
Dellandrea and a ~4-5M player who provides more offence.

It helps balance it out a bit by sacrificing some defence for some offence.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

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Well, I think Faksa would be a bit overpaid at $5 Mil, but probably not at $4Mil. But find me a real scoring winger (not the bargain basement kind with 15 goals and potential or more, or 38 goals in years past, but aging) who will sign for that amount? Zuch was $6 and Pavs was $7, just to name a few examples. And, that is UFA. What team would trade a promising scoring forward signed to a reasonable contract? None, unless there were injury, attitude, or contract problems (like he was seeking $10Mil when the last year of his contract is up)

Yes, the cap is frozen, so those numbers might go down a bit. Like a lot of proposed improvements, math is tough.

Besides, I think the Stars think like golfers. If I make a bogey (give up a goal) then I need to make 2 birdies (score 2 goals) to get ahead.
 

JesusNPucks

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Well, I think Faksa would be a bit overpaid at $5 Mil, but probably not at $4Mil. But find me a real scoring winger (not the bargain basement kind with 15 goals and potential or more, or 38 goals in years past, but aging) who will sign for that amount? Zuch was $6 and Pavs was $7, just to name a few examples. And, that is UFA. What team would trade a promising scoring forward signed to a reasonable contract? None, unless there were injury, attitude, or contract problems (like he was seeking $10Mil when the last year of his contract is up)

Yes, the cap is frozen, so those numbers might go down a bit. Like a lot of proposed improvements, math is tough.

Besides, I think the Stars think like golfers. If I make a bogey (give up a goal) then I need to make 2 birdies (score 2 goals) to get ahead.
Respectfully disagreeing, I think Faksa at $4M is not good, especially in a cap world that will remain unchanged over the next 2-3 years. I'd offer him the Cody Eakin special (4 year / $15,400,000) and trade him if he doesn't accept it. It's a big raise for him, and it fits the cap realities of the NHL. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but it's a different NHL than it was four months ago.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

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Well, we can talk all night long, but in the end, Nill is gonna Nil, and he can be rather black and white about players, i.e., Dillon no big offer, Eakin, big contract and letting him go in the expansion draft, probably because of the perceived value of that contract, i.e., Nill thought $3.6M for a checking center was a bit much for 2016-7.

But you are right, I may have inflated the numbers a bit. For reference, average Stars salary was $2.71M last year (Faksa made $2.2 as per cap) If you figure he was the 11th most valuable out of 22 skaters and goalies, about $2.7 "should be" his contract. Gotta figure, 2 goalies, 3 defenseman and maybe 4 forwards (Benn, Seguin, Rads, for sure, DG and Hintz maybe) or 9 out of 22, so maybe he could go to $3Mil tops. If contracts were going up, even $3.6 four years after the Eakin contract might be the max.

In addition, his contract is about average for comparable players signed about the same time. This chart is a bit hard to compare, but:

https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/radek-faksa-7948

And, obviously, I hope he signs for as little as possible, but I also think most good players always sign for more than what the average fan thinks they are worth.
 
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JesusNPucks

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Well, we can talk all night long, but in the end, Nill is gonna Nil, and he can be rather black and white about players, i.e., Dillon no big offer, Eakin, big contract and letting him go in the expansion draft, probably because of the perceived value of that contract, i.e., Nill thought $3.6M for a checking center was a bit much for 2016-7.

But you are right, I may have inflated the numbers a bit. For reference, average Stars salary was $2.71M last year (Faksa made $2.2 as per cap) If you figure he was the 11th most valuable out of 22 skaters and goalies, about $2.7 "should be" his contract. Gotta figure, 2 goalies, 3 defenseman and maybe 4 forwards (Benn, Seguin, Rads, for sure, DG and Hintz maybe) or 9 out of 22, so maybe he could go to $3Mil tops. If contracts were going up, even $3.6 four years after the Eakin contract might be the max.

In addition, his contract is about average for comparable players signed about the same time. This chart is a bit hard to compare, but:

https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/radek-faksa-7948

And, obviously, I hope he signs for as little as possible, but I also think most good players always sign for more than what the average fan thinks they are worth.
To be clear, I wasn't being argumentative. . . just participating in the conversation. You're right in that, in the end, "Nill is gonna Nill." Lol. My comments about Faksa are a little bit a result of my grumpiness about the lack of roster identity for the past 2-3 years, the blame for which I believe is partly on Nill and partly on Gagliardi. Signing Faksa to 4-5 million would have felt like a Hanzal 2.0 to me, as well as left me with the feeling that the Stars are going to be dumping-and-chasing forever. I appreciate the respectful discussion. #GoStars
 

Stars27

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Aug 23, 2013
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To be clear, I wasn't being argumentative. . . just participating in the conversation. You're right in that, in the end, "Nill is gonna Nill." Lol. My comments about Faksa are a little bit a result of my grumpiness about the lack of roster identity for the past 2-3 years, the blame for which I believe is partly on Nill and partly on Gagliardi. Signing Faksa to 4-5 million would have felt like a Hanzal 2.0 to me, as well as left me with the feeling that the Stars are going to be dumping-and-chasing forever. I appreciate the respectful discussion. #GoStars

And just to clarify on my earlier point, I wasn't saying Faksa should get up to 5 million. I was pointing our that dropping Cogliano at ~3.3M and not having to pay Faksa I'd say between 3.5M and 4M will allow us to spend on a more offensive player through free agency or get somebody out of Tampa at a reasonable price. For me, Killorn is equal to or slightly inferior defensively to Faksa however is more versatile and brings more offence. Not a crazy amount more but enough where it provides the Stars with another offensive weapon.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

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Yes, I appreciate the civil discussion, as well.

Not sure about the identity. Yes, Ruff was run and gun, and Monty now Bones is "tough to play against, D first, 4 line hockey." Run and gun is certainly a more spectacular identity. Using 4 lines equally certainly keeps the stats down for our top players and results in fewer goals to cheer for.

Some TV guy said something like "Having Bowness is a bonus" in a playoff review. Nice wordplay, but I didn't see how 00 games of SC head coaching could help.

OT, but for the most part, fans have the Stars finishing 4th in the round robin, with Avs seemingly the top choice out of the west to make the SC finals. Not sure why. In training camps, doesn't the D usually get up to speed before the O?
 

Ghost of Kyiv

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Yes, I appreciate the civil discussion, as well.

Not sure about the identity. Yes, Ruff was run and gun, and Monty now Bones is "tough to play against, D first, 4 line hockey." Run and gun is certainly a more spectacular identity. Using 4 lines equally certainly keeps the stats down for our top players and results in fewer goals to cheer for.

Some TV guy said something like "Having Bowness is a bonus" in a playoff review. Nice wordplay, but I didn't see how 00 games of SC head coaching could help.

OT, but for the most part, fans have the Stars finishing 4th in the round robin, with Avs seemingly the top choice out of the west to make the SC finals. Not sure why. In training camps, doesn't the D usually get up to speed before the O?

Colorado was just a little better than Dallas this year. Avs finshed with 92 points and a +48, Dallas played 1 less game but only got to 82 points with a +3. I'd say the Stars are the 3rd or 4th best team in the west, and that's nothing to scoff at.
 

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