Curious case of Brock Boesers next contract...

[Breakers]

I don't think he should breach $7mil/yr.

The way Brock plays when he's on vs when he's a bit off is drastic.

I would rather to do a bridge deal and then pay for it if he exceeds his value at its completion rather than go long term and be annoyed with the value of it against the cap.

That 3rd year of the ELC sure would be nice right now.

 

[HankNDank]

Trying to do all the comparables I can do make sense of what his next contract should be.

He has played 3 pro years and after your 7th season you become a UFA. So his next contract needs to be 6-8 years or 3 or less to help avoid UFA status.

Brock Boeser - 22 years old, 56 points 2018-19.

Comparables:

Alex Tuch - 22 years old, 52 points 2018-19, Signed for 7 x 4.75M
Teuvo Teravainen - 24 years old, 76 points in 2018-19, Signed for 5 x 5.4M
William Nylander - 23 years old, 61 points in 2017-18, Signed for 6 x 6.96M
Dylan Larkin - 22 years old, 63 points in 2017-18, Signed for 5 x 6.1M
Nikolaj Ehlers, 21 years old, 60 points in 2017-18, Signed for 7 x 6M

My prediction based on what I see above, the salary cap next year and Boesers production is...

6 x 6.5M

Thoughts ? You predictions ?

Tuch signed his deal October of 2018, after his 37 points in 78 games season, so he is not a comparable.

 

[Ita]

His camp will obviously point to Nylander and demand $7M+. I predict he signs for $7M per for 6 years.

Dubas really f it up for everybody, including their own team.

Hilarious overpayment for Nylander which is now bumping ip all future contracts.

 

[VanillaCoke]

He should get 7 min if his agent has half a brain.

 

[F A N]

That 3rd year of the ELC sure would be nice right now.

Not really. A healthy Boeser who puts up 30+ goals and 65+ points next season will cost a lot more to re-sign. If Boeser regresses he'll sign a bridge if you offer him less.

Like Horvat, it would have been cheaper to extend Boeser at the earliest possibility. But there's value in sample size. With Boeser you either lock him up long term and pay him as a 30+ goal first line winger or you give him a bridge if you think he can regress considerably if something affects his skating. This is actually a good time to negotiate a long term contract with Boeser.

 

[Chuck Feathers]

I think $8-9M x 8 years is fair value, he's def worth more than Nylander (6.9 - 2018) but not as much as Eichel $10M x 8 - 2017), closest comparable at the point of signing would probably be Draisatl, $8.5 x 8 - 2017), that was 2 years ago so adjusted for inflation.. I could easily see Brock getting 8-9M on a deal that takes him to 31.

 

[Breakers]

But there's value in sample size.

Just proved my point.

 

[TeddyBare]

Dubas really f it up for everybody, including their own team.

Hilarious overpayment for Nylander which is now bumping ip all future contracts.

The Matthews contract I thought wasnt the right move.
Even Bob McKenzie said GM's around the league were angry with the precedence of that contract.

 

[CanucksSTM]

Tuch signed his deal October of 2018, after his 37 points in 78 games season, so he is not a comparable.

Guess that’s why it was so low, sorry sir. Mistake on my part, thanks for pointing it out. Hope we can move past this.

 

[F A N]

Just proved my point.

How so? If you want a greater sample size then give Boeser a bridge.

 

[Elias GOATtersson]

Would be awesome to sign him to an 8 year deal, but I wont hold my breath. Guessing a Nylander comp +/- 300k for 6-7 years.

 

[Breakers]

How so? If you want a greater sample size then give Boeser a bridge.

Or not have a GM who caves to players to satisfy a fan base with a 6 game sample size to show their crappy rebuild.

 

[ChilliBilly]

8 years, $6.25M with a massive signing bonus. Set for life. also, his really big pay day will be when he turns 30. so give him the maximum signing bonus possible, and bonuses for scoring more than 30 goals winning the stanley cup etc.

 

[timw33]

bonuses for scoring more than 30 goals winning the stanley cup etc.

The only contracts that can have performance bonuses on are ELC (and those are strictly laid out in the CBA what you can earn for achievements) or 35+ contracts.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Dubas really f it up for everybody, including their own team.

Hilarious overpayment for Nylander which is now bumping ip all future contracts.

Yeah... Poor Toronto with their abundance of riches.

 

[ChilliBilly]

The only contracts that can have performance bonuses on are ELC (and those are strictly laid out in the CBA what you can earn for achievements) or 35+ contracts.

Thx. Sadly, I did not know that. But signing bonuses are clearly ok, look at Eriksson.

 

[bossram]

Dubas really f it up for everybody, including their own team.

Hilarious overpayment for Nylander which is now bumping ip all future contracts.

It wasn't really an overpayment. It was the contract everyone knew they would sign.

Look at all these high end, post ELC star forward contracts: Hall, Mackinnon, Eberle, RNH, Scheifele, Barkov, etc...all around 6 million. Factor in cap inflation since then, and yah, you're getting closer to a 7 million standard.

That's what Boeser is gonna get too.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Would guess 6 x 7.5M.

Dubas really f it up for everybody, including their own team.

Hilarious overpayment for Nylander which is now bumping ip all future contracts.

Its not really, comparables had him around 7M. If he is overpaid its a couple 100k, thats not a "hilarious" overpayment.

 

[F A N]

Or not have a GM who caves to players to satisfy a fan base with a 6 game sample size to show their crappy rebuild.

WTF are you talking about? So what are you trying to say? Boeser hasn't showed enough to warrant a long term contract from the Canucks?

 

[Hyzer]

Give him 8 years at 6.5 or close. Front load it. Get er done. Lock er up and tell him he and petey can have the bromance of the lifetime

 

[Krnuckfan]

There is no way he is getting a contract with an AAV that starts with a 6 if his agent is remotely competent. He should get 7-7.5 but with the benning tax I fully expect 8+.

On a strictly player vs player comparison, he is pretty similar to a guy like Kyle Connor. However, in terms of value to their organization, Boeser is much more important to the canucks than Connor is to the Jets. Benning will give him whatever his agent asks.

 

[VintageBure]

If I was Boeser's agent I wouldn't accept a penny less than Nylander. These are their combined stats of the 2 seasons before the end of their elc.

	P/gp	G/gp
Nylander	0.75	0.26
Boeser	0.88	0.42

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

**** Toronto.

I do agree but are those numbers using Nylanders awful half year this year? Because I'm pretty sure Nylander had a higher ppg. I do agree though that Boeser should be rated as high or slightly better than Nylander.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

I do agree but are those numbers using Nylanders awful half year this year? Because I'm pretty sure Nylander had a higher ppg. I do agree though that Boeser should be rated as high or slightly better than Nylander.

They do not include Nylander's numbers this year. These numbers are comparing the last 2 years of each player's ELC.

 

[Ita]

It wasn't really an overpayment. It was the contract everyone knew they would sign.

Look at all these high end, post ELC star forward contracts: Hall, Mackinnon, Eberle, RNH, Scheifele, Barkov, etc...all around 6 million. L

Haha

All these players you included on the list are significantly better than Nylander except for RNH. Mackinnon, Barkov and Nylander in the same sentence? You serious?

As for cap inflation, explain to me how was signed for almost a million more than Larkin and slightly higher than Pastnrak. So are you saying he deserving the money just because he signed a year after? Factor in the fact that is garbage in the playeoff makes 7M an overpayment.

 

[bossram]

Haha

All these players you included on the list are significantly better than Nylander except for RNH. Mackinnon, Barkov and Nylander in the same sentence? You serious?

As for cap inflation, explain to me how was signed for almost a million more than Larkin and slightly higher than Pastnrak. So are you saying he deserving the money just because he signed a year after? Factor in the fact that is garbage in the playeoff makes 7M an overpayment.

I literally knew this response was coming. Look at the seasons they had prior to signing their second contracts. Nylander's two 61 point seasons come across quite favourably.

He is paid more than Larkin and Pastrnak. I'm not saying Dubas got the perfect deal, I'm saying he was in the ballpark, and pretty close. And again, look when they signed. Pasta had only one breakout season, vs two for Nylander. Same with Larkin: he had one 63 point season, vs two 60 point seasons for Nylander. At the time of the signings, Nylander should have been looked at as more of a sure thing.

The playoff argument is clear BS from someone who literally didn't watch the games. Nylander had two bad periods in game 2. The rest of the time he dragged the Leafs two worst wingers to a massive territorial advantage against the Bruins, and outscored them 4-1. He was the furthest thing from the problem.

Brock IS going to get 7+ million. Not because of ZOMG NYLANDER SO GREEDY AND DUMB DUMB DUBAS, but because that is what the market will dictate. He's coming off two very strong seasons in his ELC, and that's what those types of players are going to make.