OT: Covid-19 (Part 57) Grand Re-Re-Re-Opening Edition

[Non Player Canadiens]

You are not inviting anyone, you are issuing a crazy mission for someone who works 60hrs+ a week in public health with a significant research budget (not my job). Luckily dispelling this is easy on first principles:

3x is a non-sensical number because the US did NOT have 3x less mandates/lockdown. Thus logically, if the difference in mandates is not 3x, then something (many other variables) else is going on. The biggest reason seems to be the vaccination difference, the US is 65% vaccinated (the red states much less) - and Canada is around 80% (the prairies much less). Vaccination rates differences are a big factor, and you can prove it at the state level (don't have the time to do it).

well, i consider vaccination rates a product of 'restrictive measures', especially in the context of Canada vs USA. provinces like Quebec did have vaccine passports which we know drove up vaccination rates, and which (you agree) had a large positive impact on decreasing death rates.

anyway, when you have time (you seem like a busy guy, arguing on message boards until 5AM on a weeknight ), feel free to share any research at all that estimates the impact of non-restriction factors in explaining that 3x difference (or Sweden's 9x for that matter). in the meantime i'm just going to assume that the policies advanced by thousands of scientists and health professionals are the main reason.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I think we have to be prudent with that overall %3 (if it's correct) - I think the relevant level analysis is hyperlocal. Ie. New York State is mandated to protect Manhattan/Brooklyn. Then you have the obvious problem that it will be very hard to enforce hyperlocal restrictions (costly in enforcement), so it's more lucid to mandate big territories.

Definitely agree.

 

[Adam Michaels]

At Olympic Stadium and Palais de Congrès, they're basically turning their thumbs. They vaccinate about 500 people a day at those two sites and they're set up for 6 times that.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

This is demonstrably false. One example was from this past summer when the prairies opened up only to shut down again after having huge spikes.

We have seen repeatedly that regions with more protective measures have fared significantly better than those that haven't. One clear example is the 3x+ death rate that the States have over Canada.

No doubt they will be less effective going forward. However, vaccines still protect people at a rate of around 65% and prevent hospitalizations by up to 90% with a third dose. The question will really be how many people take that dose and will govts make the 3rd shot a condition of the passport going forward. If they don't, then it might be a different story as there's not much protection against Omicron with having had only two shots.

This doesn’t disprove anything I said.

 

[SOLR]

well, i consider vaccination rates a product of 'restrictive measures', especially in the context of Canada vs USA. provinces like Quebec did have vaccine passports which we know drove up vaccination rates, and which (you agree) had a large positive impact on decreasing death rates.

anyway, when you have time (you seem like a busy guy, arguing on message boards until 5AM on a weeknight ), feel free to share any research at all that estimates the impact of non-restriction factors in explaining that 3x difference (or Sweden's 9x for that matter). in the meantime i'm just going to assume that the policies advanced by thousands of scientists and health professionals are the main reason.

I'm in Bali buddy 5am is my 6pm.

 

[Andy]

I'm in Bali buddy 5am is my 6pm.

He’s right tho, if you doubt that the measures were the method that reduced deaths, you should show your work that leads you to believe that.

 

[Licou]

That was a very interesting string of discussion you guys had.

I don't have time to dig into studies right now, but here is the hypothesis I think makes the most sense in regards to lockdowns:

Yes they don't reduce deaths over a long period of time, the reason being that unless they are permanent, people will still eventually catch the disease when opening up.

But what they are successful at is spreading out the infections over a long period of time, in order to give a potentially flimsy health care system (oh Canada!) Some leeway to handle the volume of cases.

So in the context of the pre vaccine pandemic, the idea of pushing as many cases in time to a post vaccination status makes the best combination of severe case reducing factors.

So this is just my opinion, based on some what I read over the past two years.

You can obviously argue that lockdowns were too much, but they definitely did something. As I said, they don't eliminate the fact that people catch covid, it just spreads it out over time, so yeah, absolute death reduction is not their intended goal.

 

[SOLR]

He’s right tho, if you doubt that the measures were the method that reduced deaths, you should show your work that leads you to believe that.

I've presented many first principles analysis that are self-explanatory. But you taking the premises of "if you doubt that the measures were the method that reduced deaths", simply I never said that lol. He's pushing it to the extreme, all I said is that I question that the measures alone (lockdowns) reduced deaths by 3x. That makes no sense at face value. Vaccination is a much bigger factor than lockdowns at the macro level. In some small, very dense areas, it is probably the case that lockdowns were effective. Age and metabolic health are also probably bigger factors than lockdowns in the macro analysis.

No one is arguing with these facts in the public agencies.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

There is a big problem with this, you would have to account for the health of the patients - since deaths happen in a small minority of cases, having just 20% more unhealthy individuals (without even going into the uninsured issues in the US) could produce vastly different deaths numbers.

It’s consistent across the board. States with more protective measures fared better than those that didn’t. Same with provinces. And on the whole Canada did much better than the States.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

This doesn’t disprove anything I said.

The numbers don’t support your assertion. And that’s across the board.

 

[SOLR]

It’s consistent across the board. States with more protective measures fared better than those that didn’t. Same with provinces. And on the whole Canada did much better than the States.

I agree, but not 3x from lockdowns/mask mandates etc.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree, but not 3x from lockdowns/mask mandates etc.

That’s fair. Because vaccines would be probably the biggest factor and that has a huge difference.

 

[Eco]

Where do I find information about coming into the province? I have tickets to come up and see the Kraken game, but I'm not sure how likely it is to get into the province (I am fully vaxxed), and then the likelihood to be able to see the game against Seatlle.

 

[Habs 4 Life]

At Olympic Stadium and Palais de Congrès, they're basically turning their thumbs. They vaccinate about 500 people a day at those two sites and they're set up for 6 times that.

Not surprising one bit...

 

[llamateizer]

Where do I find information about coming into the province? I have tickets to come up and see the Kraken game, but I'm not sure how likely it is to get into the province (I am fully vaxxed), and then the likelihood to be able to see the game against Seatlle.

the game is on March 12th and will be at 50% capacity. Make sure that you'll be able to assist to the game (not clear on the selection process)

I believe you're coming from the US?

check this link for wizard questions
Find out if you can enter Canada - Travel restrictions in Canada – Canada.ca

if fully vaccinated
Find out if you can travel to Canada – Foreign vaccinated - Travel.gc.ca

you'll need your eTA and the list below

 

[Eco]

the game is on March 12th and will be at 50% capacity. Make sure that you'll be able to assist to the game (not clear on the selection process)

I believe you're coming from the US?

check this link for wizard questions
Find out if you can enter Canada - Travel restrictions in Canada – Canada.ca

if fully vaccinated
Find out if you can travel to Canada – Foreign vaccinated - Travel.gc.ca

you'll need your eTA and the list below
View attachment 506046

Thank you, yes I am coming from the States.

I'll take a look at this, but I heard a rumor that the Bell Centre was possibly at Full Capacity by the game..? Is that not true?

 

[SOLR]

I thought I'd share this from Bali.

The emphasis on physical activity is striking.
Wish we would be so clear.

Plastic is a big local problem, they've cleaned up tremendously.

 

[llamateizer]

Thank you, yes I am coming from the States.

I'll take a look at this, but I heard a rumor that the Bell Centre was possibly at Full Capacity by the game..? Is that not true?

Last official statement was
50% Feb 21
100% March 14

Bell Centre capacity for Canadiens games increasing to 50 percent by Feb. 21, full by mid-March

Quebec Premier François Legault revealed this as part of a series of loosened COVID-19 restrictions to come over the next few weeks for the province, including that the Bell Centre will be able to operate at full capacity as of March 14. The arena can hold up to 21,302 fans for hockey games.

 

[Eco]

So 2 days before the Kraken game? Crap.

Hopefully the Premier will up the date a week.

 

[Deebs]

 

[japhi]

A crowd that all thinks and acts the same way... Genius!
I just run with a crowd that believes in, and listens to what science has to offer. And the one or two exceptions finally got vaxxed after friendly debates and because they couldn't hang out with the few groups anymore in summer.

Science says best way to avoid Covid is isolation. I sure hope you fella’s weren't and aren’t hanging out in groups, I would never be friends with anyone that is that flippant about Covid. Selfish behaviour. All of my friends have been completely isolating and I wouldn’t have it any other way, we will emerge in 2026 when the risk is finally eliminated.

 

[japhi]

A lot of the posts in this thread are all about signalling virtue. The vax has created a ridiculous us vs them. You can be the biggest drain on society but if you have the vax, you are one of the good ones.

Conversely, if you are unvaxed but contribute substantially to society, have limited contact, you are an idiot that doesn’t care about fellow man.

There is a middle ground, where you recognize that people may have legit reasons for their views, and that the story we were sold on vaccination hasn’t played out. Would you consider the Polio vaccine effective if we only got a mild version of Polio? Let’s be real, we all felt when we got the vax that this would mean low to zero chance of contracting.

Extremists on both sides are tiring. You contribution to society the past 2 years, positive or negative, has a lot more components then your vax status. But, we all like an opportunity to feel superior to the other guy and this is a golden opportunity some of you can’t refuse.

 

[Milhouse40]

A lot of the posts in this thread are all about signalling virtue. The vax has created a ridiculous us vs them. You can be the biggest drain on society but if you have the vax, you are one of the good ones.

Conversely, if you are unvaxed but contribute substantially to society, have limited contact, you are an idiot that doesn’t care about fellow man.

There is a middle ground, where you recognize that people may have legit reasons for their views, and that the story we were sold on vaccination hasn’t played out. Would you consider the Polio vaccine effective if we only got a mild version of Polio? Let’s be real, we all felt when we got the vax that this would mean low to zero chance of contracting.

Extremists on both sides are tiring. You contribution to society the past 2 years, positive or negative, has a lot more components then your vax status. But, we all like an opportunity to feel superior to the other guy and this is a golden opportunity some of you can’t refuse.

If you are unvaxed and whine about measures, got into every strores without a masks, protests for weeks and scream in the street that vaccine is a poison, microchips, devil juice, stand in front of vaccination clinic or what not....where do you place them? Surely not in the unvaxed but contribute substantially to society, have limited contact.....right?

Of course, not all unvaccinated people are like that, I know some and they are not like that at all......but all those who are like that are unvaccinated which is those many people don't have any patience with.

 

[WeeBey]

The jhu study is the latest of many. Are you referring to the National Post as a way of white washing the study. There have been many others that have come to the same conclusions. Even those that show reduced excess mortality from covid-19 (marginally) don't do much of a cost benefit analysis to show they have reduced excess mortality overall. Can you point me to one? I've read some in strict terms of covid-19, but I think that misses the point.

It's up to those that have everyone running around in a cloth mask for protection to show they work, not for me to disprove it. The same is the case for lockdowns. Agrawal and Bjornskov had papers that arrived to similar conclusions as the jhu paper. You also have to prove the lockdown itself had an impact over people just complying on their own. Most people do social distance, many would continue to wear a mask without a mandate, most would exercise caution around the elderly without being forced to, especially their own families.

Recent Angus Reid poll shows 54% want restrictions lifted. Give it another month and we will know for certain who is the fringe minority. Joel Lightbound and Yves Robillard.

Lightbound said that he’s been hearing similar concerns from his constituents, most who are vaccinated. He said some of his constituents who shared their views with him are parents whose children are sinking into depression, and businesspeople and artists who are incurring significant business losses.

Couldn't be, vaccinated people can't support freedom too? The house of cards is crumbling and this thing will be over soon.

I mention the jhu study because it's been the go-to recently because of the clickbait NP article headline. The study itself has a number of issues and ommissions. It even points to evidence that things like nonessential business closures and masks DO help.




At least one author is associated with the AEIR, which generally is going to skew them towards being "pro-business" and have been against lockdowns pretty much from the start. It's also the source of the borderline fraudulent Great Barrington Declaration. I don't know why were looking to economists at a pro-business think tank for medical advice...

I can't find the other articles you mentioned, at least nothing more recent. If you have links I'd be glad to read them.

You're the one who made a specific claim, and I asked for an elaboration on why you made said claim. Don't know why its suddenly my turn to prove your claim is wrong?

As for the rest, I'm not sure how it's relevant to the claim you made or any "position" you've deduced that I hold? I think we should be easing/dropping restrictions too. I just don't want to drop them on a dime because some libertarian economists say so. I also don't have the faith in others to act responsibly that you seem to do. When the masks were just a recommendation, pretty much no one wore them.

 

[japhi]

If you are unvaxed and whine about measures, got into every strores without a masks, protests for weeks and scream in the street that vaccine is a poison, microchips, devil juice, stand in front of vaccination clinic or what not....where do you place them? Surely not in the unvaxed but contribute substantially to society, have limited contact.....right?

Of course, not all unvaccinated people are like that, I know some and they are not like that at all......but all those who are like that are unvaccinated which is those many people don't have any patience with.

Like I said, the extremists on both sides are annoying, as they always are. Here in the middle we aren’t angry, we try and respect peoples choices and opinions and we understand there is much more to it the vax vs unvaxxed.

If you are vaxed and on tinder chasing tail, are you really pandemic superior to a guy that isn’t vaxed and spends most of his time with family? Of course not, this is very clearly a pandemic of the vaccinated at this point, time to reconsider positions.