COVID-19 Megathread (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

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PredsV82

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Additionally, drw, there is a study from Columbia University that is awaiting peer review so I wont cite it as "gospel" yet but it supposedly has evidence that starting social distancing and shutdown measures just one week sooner could have saved 36,000 lives. If it stands up to peer review (which, by the way, the Stanford/Santa Clara county study many "this wasnt necessary" types quote to support the inaccurately low death rate numbers, did not stand up to peer review and has been debunked) I'll come back and post their findings.
 

PredsV82

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"There’s a good chance the coronavirus will never go away.
Even after a vaccine is discovered and deployed, the coronavirus will likely remain for decades to come, circulating among the world’s population.
Experts call such diseases endemic — stubbornly resisting efforts to stamp them out. Think measles, HIV, chickenpox."

quoted from an article on washingtonpost.com

conservative or liberal source i don't care. just one article or source among all we can take in.

Actually, measles was considered eradicated in the US until a bunch of stupid parents stopped vaccinating their children.
 

PredsV82

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you are banking on people taking the vaccine. vaccines only work if majority of people get them... and well i wonder if we can get the majority to get a vaccine. there is a lot of ignorance when it comes to that subject.

we are also banking on a vaccine being available in 12-18 months. that's a hell of a sped up timetable.

i guess my point is we are going to just have no fans (sticking to sports perspective) until there is a vaccine? so a rushed vaccine by maybe January? then getting (begging?) people to get a vaccine to save lives... yeah i don't know. call me skeptical.

As predfan24 alluded to, this is no ordinary situation. We are basically seeing a medical "Manhattan Project" aimed at both producing a vaccine in a compressed time frame and developing antiviral medication that can successfully treat the disease if contracted. Fauci said it's possible we could have a vaccine by December. And if Remdesivir ends up being effective or another antiviral emerges that keeps people from dying/ending up in ICU then the fear will be lessened and people will be more apt to get out and do things.
 

predfan98

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Viruses not eradicated worldwide. HIV, Ebola, measles, polio, sars,mers,cold,flu, other coronavirus..
oh and the stupid comment about measles being the result of parents who are anti vaxxers, look at third world and little vaccination.....

there are so many professors, experts, epidemiologist,doctors on the opposite sides. Take your pick, you might as well toss a dart at a dart board.
The CDC waffles back and forth on everything, as does Fauci, as does WHO. Masks, airborne, surfaces, etc.

So the only thing I can do is look at death rates where I live and determine my own risk. I also asked my doctor her opinion.



As far as communicable disease argument that we have to shut down. Well, we don’t shut down for Veneral diseases, or tuberculosis or HIV in the early years.

People aren’t looking at the damage this is doing in other health areas, other diseases, mental health etc. and that cost of death will be huge. Knox county has had 1 covid death and 9 suicides.
Where do we put that in the acceptable cost column


Still , people in ICUs or maternity wards have to be alone............frankly it is criminal by the hospitals NOW , unless there is a hospital full of corona patients.
There are rapid tests they could give, (15 minutes) determine if the person is positive, glove and mask them up and let them be with their loved one. NO EXCUSE. They let hospital staff attend them . I bet they aren’t getting a rapid test everyday....
 
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PredsV82

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Measles in the United States was eradicated as of the year 2000. There had been no cases in the US for more than 12 months. But the decline in vaccination rates allowed the disease to be brought back to the US from abroad.

Polio has been eradicated in the US and almost the entire world(Pakistan and Afghanistan are the exception) due to successful vaccine programs.

Smallpox is in fact eradicated worldwide, entirely due to vaccination.
 
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Legionnaire11

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Republicans Push Back On Trump’s Mask Rhetoric: ‘Wearing A Face Covering Is Not About Politics’

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday made an extensive pitch for Americans to don face masks as a means to begin returning the country to normalcy while the coronavirus remains a threat. “There’s no stigma attached to wearing a mask. There’s no stigma attached to staying six feet apart,” the Kentucky Republican said at an event back in his home state, referencing social distancing guidelines recommended to stem the transmission of the coronavirus. (Oprysko, 5/27)
 

PredsV82

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101st_fan

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This is extremely disingenuous, comparing apples to oranges. We are at 100k in 3 months despite taking extreme measures. You cant compare that number to the death numbers of other illnesses when we werent taking those extreme precautions. Nobody knows what the numbers would have been with no shutdown and no social distancing but the original models suggested up to or over 1 million and I think it's not unreasonable to assume wed be well over 250K or more right now had no actions been taken.

I said this earlier in the thread and it remains true, if the death/infection numbers make it seem like all of this was unnecessary, it means it worked.

Nobody in the world has a good breakdown of deaths caused by COVID, contributed to from COVID, or occurring with COVID present but having no causal impact ... they all get lumped as COVID deaths at this point. Funny thing here ... with the extreme precautions P&I is still at epidemic levels and killing 100k so far. I guess all deaths are equal, some are more equal than others, COVID are most equal of all in the Orwellian universe we've entered.

Those extreme measures you keep hyping include putting infected seniors in homes, and creating the leading cause of COVID deaths in the US ... over 40% of fatalities from under 1% of the population. Suicide up .... domestic violence up ... about 10% of the country's population put out of work (not working age people, total population) ... one of the open letters from hundreds of physicians contemplated the impact of potentially tens to hundreds of thousands of cancers going without detection for months due to the way this has been handled. Hospital ships barely used ... field hospitals under utilized ... meanwhile heath systems are furloughing staff because they aren't actively involved in COVID nor are they treating non-COVID. This started as two weeks to flatten the curve --- over ten weeks ago.

I will agree with your use of the word extreme, I just disagree on appropriateness.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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They should just make a new Employment Act that mandates job and income security for a minimum period of a federally enacted Emergency Shutdown scenario.

And yes there would be growing pains and some obvious hurdles to overcome in establishing that for sure. But at the end of the tunnel, it shouldn't be impossible to be able to push "pause" on large swaths of the economy any time it becomes necessary. It shouldn't come to a tradeoff between public health and economy again. Not in a relatively short term, anyway. Give people and businesses 2-3 months of insurance against any come-what-may situation. I can warchest 20-30% of a year's salary if I really had thought it was necessary before. Other people and business can do the same. Instead, we chose to live in an economy that is constantly teetering right on the edge. But we could choose differently if we really wanted to.

You'd still have to bail out some industries that are impacted longer term than the mandated shutdown provision, of course. Airlines now, for example, won't be back to normal for years. Depends on the nature of the emergency. But you at least don't have to bail out EVERYBODY right from Day 1 all at once.

But we won't do anything like this, of course. We need to have the "freedom" to spend every penny and live on the edge if we want to, right? Don't need no nanny to take care of us! Death is the ultimate freedom anyway...
 

ILikeItILoveIt

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If we remove the nursing home deaths, we are at worse-case flu season numbers. No one is saying COVID is no biggie. We're saying the cure is much worse than the disease. By just focusing on COVID deaths and COVID prevention, without taking equal ownership for death and destruction caused by the lock down reaction to COVID, is illogical and irresponsible. WHY ARE COVID DEATH MORE IMPORTANT TO PREVENT THAN DEATHS CAUSED BY THE COVID RESPONSE? Please help me understand this. Gov. Cuomo and the Northeast Governors decided freeing up hospital beds for projected COVID patients warranted sending COVID seniors back into Nursing Homes to infect other Seniors. Tens of Thousands of deaths were preventable if this was not the policy. It was wrong and drove up COVID deaths unnecessarily.

The term used repeatedly in the first month to justify every overreach of our response to COVID was: "out of an abundance of caution, we've decided to ......". Caution relating to what? Preventing COVID infection, at all costs. So important and so sure of our selves, we contemplated the worst-case scenario and acted based on preventing that, while never measuring, projecting, modeling the harm of doing things based on the "abundance of caution".

Somebody used the term "Fear Porn". That's when you scream only the stats that promote fear of COVID, and ignore the stats on the trade-offs and the consequences, or god-forbid the positive track record of the Open Early states.

I've had it with being lectured about being mindful not to KILL the innocent, responsible, mask-wearer at Kroger as I pass him in the frozen food section mask less. Wearing a mask isn't about keeping me safe, it's about keeping others safe. I think that angle is manipulative and disingenuous. There is no scientific study to back the mask theory. I want to see the peer-reviewed study results with groups of people wearing and not wearing masks, and the infection rate for COVID. It does not exist. And if it's so scientifically proven and obvious, why were we told NOT TO WEAR MASKS for the first 30 days of this thing? I've brought this up several times but never saw a response. And don't do the "we're constantly learning and the circumstances changes in 30 days based on new data". There was no new study done in 30 days.

Have you seen the guidelines for school kids when they go back. ALL KIDS MUST WEAR MASKS!!! What a spit-show. 2nd graders wearing masks. They'll be snapping them, throwing them, sneezing into them, wearing them on their heads, and totally distracting them from learning. But that's ok, cuz it's not about learning. It's about keeping each other safe. It's all about letting the data and the science guide our decisions. Like the data that puts the mortality rate of children at a near-non-existent level, yet we're going to mask them all anyway out of an abundance of caution. I know, I'm a rube. I'm too stupid to understand that our precious cherubs are really COVID Germ Carrying Killers. Little Johnny will catch it from little Sally, and even though Johnny and Sally may have no symptoms, little Johnny is gonna come home and infect and kill Gramps so, hence, mask 'em all. There is no end to the hypothetical killing fields we'll create if we're allowed to mingle with each other. Where were the masks when influenza was marching through classrooms (because that one actually hits kids). I know, Gramps has a vaccine for that one, except the vaccine doesn't have a great track record for Seniors which is why many don't take the vaccine.

I honor people's request of they don't want to be near me without a mask. I don't get up in people's face out of courtesy. But I'm not seeing much courtesy from the Masked Saints as they handle their germ-ridden masks in my space or give one crap that my wife's mammogram is now 3 months late and counting because of the stupidity of restricting medical procedures. Why? Wait, you know the phrase ...... "out of an abundance of caution".
 

bdub24

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You really need to think about your privileged life if wearing a mask is too much to ask.

And there are scientific studies but I’m not going to do your googling for you and you won’t be proven wrong anyway, so just go on sounding ignorant about this issue.
 

PredsV82

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Anyone with the stones to act like if we had just let nature take its course and not imposed any kind of restrictions that this would have been no worse than a bad flu season is delusional. Literally the whole f***ing world with a couple of exceptions handled this in the same way. Acting like you know that every leader/government of every country got it colossally wrong takes some unimaginable hubris.
 

predfan98

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I have never read anyone here saying we should have let nature take its course and should have never had the initial shutdown.

But it was very clear in early April that the models were horribly wrong, that hospitals weren’t over run, etc. that we did what was originally asked.

when things are so very wrong, you regroup and re evaluate...instead of blindly continuing.

the unimaginable hubris is people saying no death counts except covid, THAT NO ONE ELSES HEALTH MATTERS. odd take on health, considering.
 
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twig

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I’m pretty sure I had that crap back in early January,most of my regulars at the store describe having the same symptoms back then as well.

I haven’t changed any of my daily activities as a result of the virus.

I refuse to live in fear.

I see enough fear filled people everyday.
 
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bdub24

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I’m pretty sure I had that crap back in early January,most of my regulars at the store describe having the same symptoms back then as well.

I haven’t changed any of my daily activities as a result of the virus.

I refuse to live in fear.

I see enough fear filled people everyday.
Agree - the precautions should help alleviate living in fear. There are plenty of guidelines that are designed to keep everyone safe.
 

Armourboy

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I’m pretty sure I had that crap back in early January,most of my regulars at the store describe having the same symptoms back then as well.

I haven’t changed any of my daily activities as a result of the virus.

I refuse to live in fear.

I see enough fear filled people everyday.
I'd love to have a reliable anti-body test because at this point I have a pretty good feeling I had it with the flu at the end of February.

I tested positive for the flu, so that I know I had, but the symptoms from it were over within a few days. The chest part was diagnosed as " probably bronchitis " in the ER and I was sent home with an inhaler. It took me roughly two weeks to knock out that part, which included coughing up blood and vomiting for several days.

My wife and father in law were diagnosed with the flu because I had it, but both failed flu tests and like me they had a dry cough that lasted 10-14 days. They also had the vomiting.

I believe I picked it up from someone in a truck stop on the way back from Arkansas. I stopped there for a while and ate. The flu came from someone at the funeral, my brother had it as well, but he never had the coughing or vomiting part. We traveled separately after the funeral.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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You really need to think about your privileged life if wearing a mask is too much to ask.

And there are scientific studies but I’m not going to do your googling for you and you won’t be proven wrong anyway, so just go on sounding ignorant about this issue.
At this point, it is 100% willful ignorance. There's not much point in trying to help somebody who is just being deliberately obtuse about it.

The economic impacts argument is at least a valid one to have. One may agree or disagree about whether the ultimate cost of the shut-down will be worse than the impact of the virus, and we'll never truly know if we could have done it better or differently, or what the death toll would have been without the shut-down, etc. There are arguments to make on both sides of that debate, and many variables to consider. Although people tend to overlook the timeline when they wade in, and underestimate the value of modeling.

But there's really no argument to be made against social distancing and mask-wearing. You can do those things without impacting the economy. At this point it is just posturing and possibly some strange psychological false bravado or toxic machismo that seems to be behind most people who decide to argue against masks. But whatever is behind it, once they've decided to take that stance, you can't reach them. They're sealed off in their own bubble of ignorance thereafter.
 
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PredsV82

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Posting this tweet for the summary and the graph on how many years of life have been taken by COVID but I'd encourage anyone with a little.time on their hands to click on the link to the Vox article. It's a long read but is a very well researched compilation of all the things that COVID is doing to the people who survive the illness. The discussion in this thread has frequently centered only on the deaths from the virus and those numbers are used to construct an argument that this is no big deal if you arent old or in a nursing home.

If you read the source article you will understand why this disease scares the hell out of me and has doctors and nurses afraid like nothing I've seen in my lifetime.

Read the article and you'll understand why I say using the term "fear porn" is an overt expression of ignorance of the nature of the disease.
 
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Legionnaire11

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I’m pretty sure I had that crap back in early January.

I'd love to have a reliable anti-body test because at this point I have a pretty good feeling I had it with the flu at the end of February.

I was traveling a lot last year and up until mid-february this year, with my wife for her job, half of which is based in China.

I am also curious to know if I had it in early January because I have never had the flu before in my life. Colds, sinus infection, but never flu. Yet in January something awful went through our house. It hit me suddenly, a full day where I couldn't even get out of bed with a high fever. Then about two weeks of dry cough and fatigue. When typically when i'm sick there's a ton of mucus and no fever.

There are reports that the virus may have originated as early as November, and could have been circulating for six weeks in the US before the first official case was reported on January 21. Many people report similar stories, but for now it's being labeled "plausible, but unlikely" until more research is done.

Coronavirus fact check: Could your December cough have been COVID-19?
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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I was traveling a lot last year and up until mid-february this year, with my wife for her job, half of which is based in China.

I am also curious to know if I had it in early January because I have never had the flu before in my life. Colds, sinus infection, but never flu. Yet in January something awful went through our house. It hit me suddenly, a full day where I couldn't even get out of bed with a high fever. Then about two weeks of dry cough and fatigue. When typically when i'm sick there's a ton of mucus and no fever.

There are reports that the virus may have originated as early as November, and could have been circulating for six weeks in the US before the first official case was reported on January 21. Many people report similar stories, but for now it's being labeled "plausible, but unlikely" until more research is done.

Coronavirus fact check: Could your December cough have been COVID-19?
Without disabling my adblocker for that article... what are the limitations of antibody tests in clarifying that? Shouldn't we already be able to tell if it was really widely circulating sooner? Or is that data just slow to coalesce as the focus is more on immediate active case testing? :dunno: (Or do the ABs just not linger long enough to know?)

Everybody has an anecdote, and many of us share a similar experience, but I'd think these would be relatively simple to build a case for or against. Of course, as we've seen in so many other aspects of this pandemic, many people are just going to believe their own anecdotes and fantasies regardless of what the research shows. But you'd think it would be hugely important to have this factor accounted for in the models and health policy planning, regardless of what the masses choose to believe about it.
:dunno:
 
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Legionnaire11

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Without disabling my adblocker for that article... what are the limitations of antibody tests in clarifying that? Shouldn't we already be able to tell if it was really widely circulating sooner? Or is that data just slow to coalesce as the focus is more on immediate active case testing? :dunno: (Or do the ABs just not linger long enough to know?)

Everybody has an anecdote, and many of us share a similar experience, but I'd think these would be relatively simple to build a case for or against. Of course, as we've seen in so many other aspects of this pandemic, many people are just going to believe their own anecdotes and fantasies regardless of what the research shows. But you'd think it would be hugely important to have this factor accounted for in the models and health policy planning, regardless of what the masses choose to believe about it.
:dunno:

According to the doctor quoted in the article (a professor at U of Texas), the only way to determine if the virus was here in December or early January would be to test blood samples taken at that time. Obviously, that would be like finding a needle in a haystack so probably won't ever confirm it that way.

A U of Michigan doctor doubts it was here in December and points to other types of flu (Influenza A, Influenza B and RSV) as likely cases that people are anecdotally questioning as Corona.

A doctor for APHA says that once the research is eventually done, that we will find the virus was here earlier than first believed.

So like everything else, a lot of questions, a lot of varied opinions and very few answers.
 

Legionnaire11

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Also, saw a USA today poll this morning where 62% of respondents still view the situation as more of a public health problem than an economic problem. And 77% of people approve of wearing masks in public.

More proof that the "No Masks!" group is just the vocal minority and both sides of the political aisle have a majority that support the use of masks.
 
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Marty Party

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I personally don't care what people do but going out in public around middle Tennessee (Rutherford, Williamson, Davidson) this week I've noticed that the majority aren't wearing masks. As the summer progresses, unless something drastic happens, it will probably be less and less wearing masks.

And a high percentage of the folks who are wearing masks aren't utilizing them correctly. They have their nose exposed or are wearing them beneath their chin. Frankly, it looks like it's for show.

Just my observational opinion. I'm not upset about it nor am I in any kind of fear of being around folks not wearing masks.
 
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