Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[EightyOne]

What are the negative implications to a second round of sickness?

Are these people getting hit worse, better, or the same as their first bout?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

An extremely good article to understand what to expect once we transition from a national lock down over the next year and beyond.

Texas A&M pandemic expert: Coronavirus will have 5 stages. We're in stage 2.

 

[The Old Master]

What are the negative implications to a second round of sickness?
Are these people getting hit worse, better, or the same as their first bout?

should be much better. should have plenty of drugs to treat it pluss there should be a large group already immune. imo

 

[vikingGoalie]

What are the negative implications to a second round of sickness?

Are these people getting hit worse, better, or the same as their first bout?

people are getting re-infected after recovering is anyone official saying that? that would have dire implications to this pandemic...
my understanding is that people are producing antibodies and that this virus is slow to mutate, but we are in the early stages and just don't know if recovered people are immune or have a better immune response (aka get alot less sick). It's suspected that that is the case but no one knows for sure yet.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Sometimes you accidentally come across stuff you think is from The Onion, then shake your head when you realize it’s not.

Lockdown spares Czech women an Easter whipping

I guess this is good news.

Looks like the women get off easy in Czech and don’t get cold water dumped on them...

Easter Monday tradition of whipping girls into health? No thanks

I wonder how long this asinine tradition would be going on if the roles were reversed.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

So I bitched about my ex and how she is handling this shelter in place order regarding our 2 kids. Well Sat night's text exchange was a hoot- I should post screenshots

My fiance's coworker tested positive (fiance was never directly exposed or in the office). I shared that with my girls because I'm trying to stress the seriousness of this. They're teenagers so don't quite get it, plus their mom's behavior reinforces this whole quarantine thing is dumb.

I'll summarize...

Ex: I heard your fiance had a coworker test positive. I'm concerned because my dad's weakened immune system [he recently had a liver transplant]
Me: That is true but she has not been in the office/directly exposed. We have been taking the government orders seriously and not have had any unnecessary contact with other people outside our household. I am hearing from the girls that X is seeing her boyfriend/coming over and Y is hanging out with her friend. I'm surprised to hear this because of your parents' health issues lately
Ex: Only Collin (boyfriend) and Lainey (youngests' friend) have come to the house. I view them as family
Me: But that's not what shelter in place means...it's only people in the household
Ex: I allowed them to take groceries to my mom's and I'm the main caregiver for my dad as well
Me: I'm not going to debate this but the rules are extremely clear that people should not being engaging with others outside their household. I completely disagree with your approach with allowing them to have friends over. All I can control is what happens at my house

********
I have also learned that her dad comes over "almost every night for dinner". Along with 2 aunts that don't live in their house.
My ex, for being such a booksmart person, is extremely dumb

But again I think this is all just to spite me and be viewed as the cool parent. While I have to be the dad who isn't letting my kids do cool things with friends...

 

[EightyOne]

should be much better. should have plenty of drugs to treat it pluss there should be a large group already immune. imo

people are getting re-infected after recovering is anyone official saying that? that would have dire implications to this pandemic...
my understanding is that people are producing antibodies and that this virus is slow to mutate, but we are in the early stages and just don't know if recovered people are immune or have a better immune response (aka get alot less sick). It's suspected that that is the case but no one knows for sure yet.

So. As the overall risk to many is seemingly not as dire as thought and possible reinfection doesn't make things much worse, pretty soon there's really going to be no justification for EVERYONE being quarantined?

If someone is in a risk category, THEY can quarantine themselves.

Coronavirus Response: Sweden Has Avoided Isolation and Economic Ruin | National Review

 

[HandshakeLine]

What drug treatments are people touting as the new miracle cure again? I'm not so well versed on the snakeoil du jour anymore.

 

[EightyOne]

What drug treatments are people touting as the new miracle cure again? I'm not so well versed on the snakeoil du jour anymore.

Not having diabetes or being old.

It's hard to prescribe these cures, though.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

My guess given that timeliness from the Texas A&M researcher that I linked?

That every two week testing for everyone who hasn't had the virus and recovered until they have a vaccine will be voluntary. But without a pass showing that you have been tested, and agree to active cell phone monitoring to determine if you cross paths with someone contagious, and agreeing to self isolation for two weeks after exposure, you will receive no permit to work or to leave your home.

Which sounds appalling.

And completely reasonable and acceptable when so many lives are at stake.

 

[Sideline]

My guess given that timeliness from the Texas A&M researcher that I linked?

That every two week testing for everyone who hasn't had the virus and recovered until they have a vaccine will be voluntary. But without a pass showing that you have been tested, and agree to active cell phone monitoring to determine if you cross paths with someone contagious, and agreeing to self isolation for two weeks after exposure, you will receive no permit to work or to leave your home.

Which sounds appalling.

And completely reasonable and acceptable when so many lives are at stake.

Man, the 4th Amendment is going to keep America sick for months, isn't it?

 

[EightyOne]

Just give a medical waiver to go about the world.

If you sign it, you can't get treated in a hospital if you get sick and test positive for COVID19.

If you don't sign it, you stay isolated.

...
New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew

Man, if it comes out that it was rampant in areas for weeks or MONTHS before anyone noticed.......how many of us have already had it????

 

[Andy99]

Man, the 4th Amendment is going to keep America sick for months, isn't it?

not the 4th Amendment....try the 14th, people (makes 5th Amendment due process and liberty interests applicable to the states)....

 

[Sideline]

not the 4th Amendment....try the 14th, people (makes 5th Amendment due process and liberty interests applicable to the states)....

Either way some lawyers are going to get famous.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

So I bitched about my ex and how she is handling this shelter in place order regarding our 2 kids. Well Sat night's text exchange was a hoot- I should post screenshots

My fiance's coworker tested positive (fiance was never directly exposed or in the office). I shared that with my girls because I'm trying to stress the seriousness of this. They're teenagers so don't quite get it, plus their mom's behavior reinforces this whole quarantine thing is dumb.

I'll summarize...

Ex: I heard your fiance had a coworker test positive. I'm concerned because my dad's weakened immune system [he recently had a liver transplant]
Me: That is true but she has not been in the office/directly exposed. We have been taking the government orders seriously and not have had any unnecessary contact with other people outside our household. I am hearing from the girls that X is seeing her boyfriend/coming over and Y is hanging out with her friend. I'm surprised to hear this because of your parents' health issues lately
Ex: Only Collin (boyfriend) and Lainey (youngests' friend) have come to the house. I view them as family
Me: But that's not what shelter in place means...it's only people in the household
Ex: I allowed them to take groceries to my mom's and I'm the main caregiver for my dad as well
Me: I'm not going to debate this but the rules are extremely clear that people should not being engaging with others outside their household. I completely disagree with your approach with allowing them to have friends over. All I can control is what happens at my house

********
I have also learned that her dad comes over "almost every night for dinner". Along with 2 aunts that don't live in their house.
My ex, for being such a booksmart person, is extremely dumb

But again I think this is all just to spite me and be viewed as the cool parent. While I have to be the dad who isn't letting my kids do cool things with friends...

Ugh, that's gotta be frustrating. Sorry to hear that.

 

[Jacob]

Dengue fever is known for being worse the 2nd time around but that’s because there are several varieties of the virus and when you’ve beaten one but get another there’s something peculiar that happens chemically that I don’t fully understand enough to explain, basically like your body doesn’t recognize how to fight the 2nd one so it ends up worse. It’s unique to that disease. But even that isn’t universally true. Some get it a 2nd time and it’s milder.

Coronaviruses other than COVID19 can have antibodies built against them that last for years so there’s no reason to think this one is different. Any report of someone getting reinfected might simply be an outlier, an immunocompromised person, or faulty tests.

In fact I’ve wondered if the reason so many apparently are asymptomatic might have to do with whether or not the person has had a different coronavirus before. Not MERS or SARS but one of the 4 or 5 that circulate as the common cold. Maybe bodies that have had that are better equipped for COVID19- a different strain but still another coronavirus. Might explain why young people are way better off with this since kids get like 3x as many colds per year as adults. I barely graduated high school so it’s just a dumb thought,

 

[Jaded-Fan]

 

[vikingGoalie]

Just give a medical waiver to go about the world.

If you sign it, you can't get treated in a hospital if you get sick and test positive for COVID19.

If you don't sign it, you stay isolated.

...
New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew

Man, if it comes out that it was rampant in areas for weeks or MONTHS before anyone noticed.......how many of us have already had it????

this is exactly the thing I've been saying for a few weeks now. I'm fairly convinced that this is way more infectous then initially told, and that china hid this long enough that it spread before we even knew they had human-human transmission going on. Which in my head is actually good news. If that is true the mortality rate of this is more akin to seasonal flu because there are a vast number of undiagnosed people who didn't know they had it. It also means we should adopt sweden's response and open society back up. Though data will drive this as we find out more. All the more reason we need widespread anti-body testing. That might be the most important thing we need right now.

 

[Mr. T]

In fairness, they are America's Team.

 

[AlphaMikeFoxtrots]

Something I've seen lightly touched on in places but not nearly enough that the deep south is going through in real time...winter's over in our hemisphere, here come the natural disaster seasons.

 

[ChaosAgent]

this is exactly the thing I've been saying for a few weeks now. I'm fairly convinced that this is way more infectous then initially told, and that china hid this long enough that it spread before we even knew they had human-human transmission going on. Which in my head is actually good news. If that is true the mortality rate of this is more akin to seasonal flu because there are a vast number of undiagnosed people who didn't know they had it. It also means we should adopt sweden's response and open society back up. Though data will drive this as we find out more. All the more reason we need widespread anti-body testing. That might be the most important thing we need right now.

I think it's about 5x, .5%.

NYC's 7K deaths would imply a .1% IFR if everyone in the city already had it. Which I highly doubt. Plus that Germany serological study said .4%.

Still agree with you that reopening (with significant restrictions) based on geography is the right move. I think for our collective psychology, though, we need to see the bodycount go down to prove that we have flattened the curve. I think once we hit under 1K deaths for a couple days in a row (which should be in 2 weeks or so) that will be the appropriate time. I'll be pretty pissed if Tom Wolf keeps us locked down by then.

 

[Sideline]

Something I've seen lightly touched on in places but not nearly enough that the deep south is going through in real time...winter's over in our hemisphere, here come the natural disaster seasons.

And FEMA is already all hands on deck doing Corona work.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

What's that phrase: the individual raindrops feel they can't get blamed for a flood?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

What's that phrase: the individual raindrops feel they can't get blamed for a flood?

I prefer

If you think that AB was an asshole, just watch what I can do.

I think that was Shakespeare that I am quoting. But it might have been Oscar Wilde.

 

[vikingGoalie]

I think it's about 5x, .5%.

NYC's 7K deaths would imply a .1% IFR if everyone in the city already had it. Which I highly doubt. Plus that Germany serological study said .4%.

Still agree with you that reopening (with significant restrictions) based on geography is the right move. I think for our collective psychology, though, we need to see the bodycount go down to prove that we have flattened the curve. I think once we hit under 1K deaths for a couple days in a row (which should be in 2 weeks or so) that will be the appropriate time. I'll be pretty pissed if Tom Wolf keeps us locked down by then.

**************** warning math, nerd alert, skip now if math makes your eyes glaze over ***************

Iceland has been testing non symptomatic and has found that 50% of their positives are asymptomatic and it's likely to be much higher (asymptomatic postives as they aren't doing antibody but rather active virus tests). The number actually exposed could, in theory, be 50x what we have reported. Which like i said means we are close to seasonal flu for a mortality rate. CDC is at least updating their numbers now, up until recently they had this pegged at a R0 of 2.2 which didn't make any math sense. High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
Now in that article this figure is germane: Figure 5 - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

In that study I still think they haven't adequately accounted for asymptomatic infected folks, still lets run with their study. If this virus was circulating much earlier then we thought quite a few folks have been exposed. That article out of cali was thinkin that the infection was there for a month or more before social distancing measures were implemented. IF, the R0 value is towards the higher side which CDC has pegged at 9 (i have read journals where it could be as high as 25) and let's assume an incubation period of 5 days before an infected person gets infectious and can spread it. In one month from ONE infected individual a value of 9 and every 5 days each of those causing 9 new people to get infected in one month that 9 to the 6th power or 534K people.

But let's back this down to the middle of the road estimate by the CDC and a R0 value of 5.7, that results in 34K infected. That is obviously much lower But still that is with a seed start of only 1 person, if you think it's reasonable that there were, say, 10 people that were infected and started seeding it in cali a month ahead of time, you get 340K infected.

Of course, these numbers are based on an assumption that the virus was present a month before California locked down, and that the CDC's models that are trending now are accurate. So this could be completely wrong if the base assumptions are incorrect but they don't seem to be unreasonable assumptions. Also the R0 value is supposed to take into account overlaps.

So given all that. if we have 340K exposed/infected in Cali, that is roughly 14x more prevalent then reported. There are 682 deaths attributed to Covid19 that would make the mortality rate be something like 0.2%. Seasonal flu is something like 0.1% were recent rates where more like 0.14% in a bad flu season. a 0.06% difference in mortality rate is not worth closing society down like this. Sorry grandma, it's not. It is worth doing a measured/controlled isolation like in sweden. If the number is 14x ( i think it's higher) we are still talking about a 0.3% mortality rate in NY.

One last time, I can be completely wrong here as the data is very incomplete. But I can't turn my math brain off and this seems to be where the data is trending. Sorry for the stream of mathness to those that don't want....