- Feb 24, 2012
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Trust the public health department over the paper.
Another revision down on this model... a few states now revised down over 90%. Alabama revised down almost 95% from original estimates.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
OT: Coronavirus chat
- Thread starter Bubba Thudd
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Trust the public health department over the paper.
Another revision down on this model... a few states now revised down over 90%. Alabama revised down almost 95% from original estimates.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
UncleRisto
Not Great, Bob!
I had a fever from last night to earlier today and you know what though actually, it's not a good time for this right now.
BaconNater
Registered User
Seems like everytime theres a post or discussion about possibilities on how to restart the season or anything to do with that you get attacked by people saying season is over get over it not happening you suck you idiot!!
I get it that its a scary time but jeez its okay to discuss these things
I get it that its a scary time but jeez its okay to discuss these things
CharlesPuck
Registered User
I went back and looked at the public healths site and they did have 150 listed for yesterday. They must have updated the data on their site to better assign the actual day of death vs a lump sum...
- Feb 24, 2012
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That's what I mean, they know the delays and when the data should be assigned. They aren't perfect, but they actually are striving for accurate data... it is some of their jobs.
So the US now projects just over 60,000 deaths from the virus and those projections continue to go down every single day. Remember when certain posters in here were talking about that number being well up into the millions? Good times...
I'm actually expecting life to be returning back to normal by the time Summer roles around. We'll start seeing a level of restrictions eased by May 1st, Sports will come back in the form of Baseball in May. Hockey and Basketball will return in early June for a fanless conclusion to the regular season. And then when the playoffs start in July, barns will be packed full.
I'm actually expecting life to be returning back to normal by the time Summer roles around. We'll start seeing a level of restrictions eased by May 1st, Sports will come back in the form of Baseball in May. Hockey and Basketball will return in early June for a fanless conclusion to the regular season. And then when the playoffs start in July, barns will be packed full.
Thats because of some states taking early action. Thats still a lot of deaths and it could've been a lot worst. I don't think the projections were wrong. I just think some states and some families are doing the best they can to beat this.
- Feb 24, 2012
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It was 80k just yesterday too. That model has been revised down a ton since the inception. It was flawed to begin with and as data comes in, they have to keep adjusting down. Odds are it will keep adjusting down as they are still overestimating some numbers within a day or two of the revision. We are certainly not past everything, but the light at the end of the tunnel is visible.
- Feb 24, 2012
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The projections were/are based off really poor data. It is getting better with time, but still flawed.
No doubt the social distancing is helping quite a bit... But I think a tonne of it comes from models flat out overestimating this things actual mortality rate.
Considering a lot of models were(And some probably still are) using mortality rates of like 2.5-3% or more... When in reality its looking more and more like this thing is actually going to be under 1% when its all said and done.
On top of that... the number of people who are showing to be asymptomatic despite having the virus continues to grow.
60,000 is a lot of people... It's also roughly 10,000 more than the number of people that die each year from influenza. And again, without the social distancing, these numbers would probably be a touch higher... But certainly not in the millions like some on here and in the media would have led you to believe a couple weeks ago.
Give it 2 months and I suspect the world is 90% back to normal. The one thing that could change that, is going to be what happens in China in the coming couple of weeks. If they start getting hit hard with a 2nd wave quickly after reopening businesses and stuff... we might not get that option to reopen. But if they dont get hit hard(And so far they haven't been), it wont be long after before everywhere else is back operational as well.
- Feb 24, 2012
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Yep. I think the biggest questions that still remain are going to be about whether this is going to be a recurring problem that has to be dealt with every Fall/Winter until a Vaccine is developed to help fight it similar to the flu. Or is this going to prove to be something like SARS where it just fades away until all of a sudden we have no more cases and we dont ever see it again.
But ya, you can definitely see the light at the end right now. Another few weeks and we should be well into the down swing of things by then.
Foppberg
Registered User
Hope you're right, but I'll be surprised if we're 90% back to normal by November let alone June.
Foppa2118
Registered User
- Oct 3, 2003
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It would seem this could likely be traced back to exposure from the Staples Center in LA before the season ended.
The Avs played there against LA on March 9th and have had three cases so far. The Nets played the Lakers there on March 10th and the Lakers have two cases and the Nets four cases right now. The Sens played the Kings there on March 11th, and have five players and one staff member that have contracted the virus.
Those four teams seem to be leading their respective league in cases so far. Interestingly though, the Kings don't have any reported cases right now, despite finishing the season with a four game home stand at Staples.
The NBA and NHL apparently don't share the same locker rooms at the Staple Center either. There are separate rooms for each, but you would have to think they still walked through, and shared a lot of other common areas.
Touching surfaces and then touching your face is not something players are concerned with on game day, and the anxiety among players in the midst of "battle" seems to lead them to touch their face a lot. Even during interviews, where being nervous can lead to people doing this quite often.
Hopefully the arena staff is doing ok. Would be interested in hearing if they have a larger number of cases among them as well.
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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I’m genuinely curious of this as well. Their approach is the way I’ve always thought we should eventually role back to normal life once we see more non-essential parts of our economy trickle back in June-ish. However they’ve been doing it all along.
- Feb 24, 2012
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Yeah their case numbers follow a similar trend to other areas where the peak cases might be passing. On the other side the deaths are creeping up at a higher rate than you'd be comfortable with.
Foppa2118
Registered User
- Oct 3, 2003
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Testing isn't as important right now for individuals with no or very mild symptoms, but big picture it's incredibly important for a variety of reasons. One of the main reasons is to acquire a bigger sample of data and weed out the variance.
There is presumably a large number of people out there who have either died at home from the virus, or they contracted the virus, but either didn't become symptomatic, or they had mild symptoms. None of which are counted in the actual numbers right now.
So they have a very incomplete picture of the absolute numbers right now, and they don't know how the virus spreads among the asymptomatic or presymptomatic. Just an assumption that it's playing a part, because there are parts of the data that would likely require that to be the case, for the numbers to be what they are.
They also don't know for sure how long you remain infectious to others after contracting the virus. There was a study out of China back in March saying that patients who survived the disease shed the virus between 8-37 days. But they don't know how much of that shedding in the later stages leads to infection in others.
All of this lack of data from a lack of testing has big impacts on an accurate case fatality rate, as well as the number of confirmed cases per day. The latter being one of the better ways to track the spread, but only if that daily number is accurate.
So they could potentially see a false slowing of the spread, or vice versa. Which they will be using to base their recommendations to open the economy back up.
With such a long incubation period of 2-14 days, along with spreading symptomatically and presymptomatically, and viral shedding for up to 37 days, this thing could potentially be very difficult to sufficiently slow down. The virus could potentially be hanging around in communities not affected right now, or in cities seeing the spread slow, just waiting to cause another wave of cases. Like in Hong Kong for example.
So you can see why it's important to have accurate models, since those recommendations are based off models, and models are based off assumptions, which are based off data. The larger the sample, the more accurate the data, and the more accurate the data, the more accurate the assumptions/models.
Not to mention the antibody testing they are just starting to do now, which will tell us how exactly the virus attacks our bodies, who is more immune to the worst symptoms, and why that is. Which could hopefully lead to better treatments down the line as well as antibody injections.
The other important reason is for contact tracing. The more testing you do, especially early on, the better you can contain the spread. You can do a ton of surveillance to find the positives, then trace who they were in contact with, especially friends and family, and get them to quarantine themselves before spreading it further.
All of this has a big impact on the absolute numbers, which is why focusing on the models or the risk numbers are more reliable than the absolute number of cases or deaths right now to tell you how things are going.
- Dec 4, 2002
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The downward movement of that model in such a very short period of time is almost unbelievable. I get that it's a tough thing to predict, but their numbers were miles off. Or so it seems. I suppose we should wait it out and see for sure.
I wouldn't object to someone taking a look at the last few weeks' stock market activity of the people running that thing.
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Foppa2118
Registered User
- Oct 3, 2003
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The downward movement of that model in such a very short period of time is almost unbelievable. I get that it's a tough thing to predict, but their numbers were miles off. Or so it seems. I suppose we should wait it out and see for sure.
I wouldn't object to someone taking a look at the last few weeks' stock market activity of the people running that thing.
They always said they thought it could be lower if the country was following the mitigation guidelines. Fauci emphasized this a few times, as well as the fact that the models are only as good as the assumptions they're based on. Which is absolutely true.
I think publicizing those numbers so much was an intentional effort to get the public's attention, because not enough people were staying home. Especially those worst case scenario numbers of 1.6-2.2 million if they did nothing.
Hennessy
Ye Jacobites, by name
They're getting away with it reasonably well so far, but I am doubtful. The basis for all this is tradition, which is based on the people trusting their government and vice versa. But in this day and age where everyone read a blog and is an expert, I'm just not sure those foundations are as solid as people would like to think.
I've been self-isolating since early March, so I'm obviously taking it very carefully. But I think Sweden as a whole has been a bit cavalier. The key to all this is to get out in front of it, but the plan has basically been to wait until it blows up. That said, plenty of Swedes are following the guidelines, and so far the country is doing alright. But this coming week and after I think will be the real test. Goddamn Swedes and their Easter Break addiction. At least most of the ski places are closed. If there's not a significant spike within that time, I'll be feeling more optimistic about how they've handled it.
As a rule I dislike projections of any kind when dealing with infectious disease. There is way too many variables.
I don’t know how to word this differently, but if people get stupid, those numbers change a lot. Something else to consider is even if covid does kill only 40-50k, it’s important to note the rather high rate of mortality versus other more typical prevalent URI.
This is a very different animal than the flu. Seeing it first hand in patients is kind of weird. There’s very atypical disease progression in some patients. Most are perfectly fine but the ones that aren’t truly spend weeks on deaths door. The flu kills but this is very different animal. I can’t support that with facts or cited research but I see people die of a variety of things routinely. This is maybe one of the most rapid deteriorations I’ve witnessed in one specific infectious pathogen in my entire career. That’s from hospital arrival to critical condition. Not from onset of symptoms.
Obviously those cases are outliers. I’m not fearmongering here. I’m not trying to be dramatic. I’ve just never seen anything like it. It’s earned my respect. I mean pathogens overwhelm their hosts all the time. It’s not new. It’s just the progression can be so damn fast. And the vent ween times is literally mind blowing to me. It’s a real bitch weening off for this particular bug.
We’re learning now that it might not be ARDs from respiratory fatigue as much as it probably is from a cytokine storm leading to ARDs which may help vector treatment in the future if that pans out as true. Maybe immuno down regulating.
To be my own devils advocate though, we don’t know how many people are actually infected. Could be 20 million cases for all we know. It’ll take a solid five years to really have a good clue what we’re dealing with and by then hopefully some herd immunity will blunt this bug.
I don’t put a ton of stock into projections or data analysis. There’s not enough data to analyze to form a worthwhile projection unless it’s looked at in the lens of typical coronavirus behavior and it’s based on seasonal outlooks.
At the very least, if we alter the projections daily we’re bound to be right eventually.
I don’t know how to word this differently, but if people get stupid, those numbers change a lot. Something else to consider is even if covid does kill only 40-50k, it’s important to note the rather high rate of mortality versus other more typical prevalent URI.
This is a very different animal than the flu. Seeing it first hand in patients is kind of weird. There’s very atypical disease progression in some patients. Most are perfectly fine but the ones that aren’t truly spend weeks on deaths door. The flu kills but this is very different animal. I can’t support that with facts or cited research but I see people die of a variety of things routinely. This is maybe one of the most rapid deteriorations I’ve witnessed in one specific infectious pathogen in my entire career. That’s from hospital arrival to critical condition. Not from onset of symptoms.
Obviously those cases are outliers. I’m not fearmongering here. I’m not trying to be dramatic. I’ve just never seen anything like it. It’s earned my respect. I mean pathogens overwhelm their hosts all the time. It’s not new. It’s just the progression can be so damn fast. And the vent ween times is literally mind blowing to me. It’s a real bitch weening off for this particular bug.
We’re learning now that it might not be ARDs from respiratory fatigue as much as it probably is from a cytokine storm leading to ARDs which may help vector treatment in the future if that pans out as true. Maybe immuno down regulating.
To be my own devils advocate though, we don’t know how many people are actually infected. Could be 20 million cases for all we know. It’ll take a solid five years to really have a good clue what we’re dealing with and by then hopefully some herd immunity will blunt this bug.
I don’t put a ton of stock into projections or data analysis. There’s not enough data to analyze to form a worthwhile projection unless it’s looked at in the lens of typical coronavirus behavior and it’s based on seasonal outlooks.
At the very least, if we alter the projections daily we’re bound to be right eventually.
LieutenantDangle
Barry McKockner
ASmileyFace
Landeskog Replacement
While I'm going to be happy if things end up on the side of 50k deaths rather than millions. I hope people don't take that as reason to ignore the government in the future when something like this happens again.
Who knows how long it will be, but with an ever growing population humanity needs to be able to deal with pandemics like this. I'm very happy with the measures Colorado has taken on this. I can acutally see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Who knows how long it will be, but with an ever growing population humanity needs to be able to deal with pandemics like this. I'm very happy with the measures Colorado has taken on this. I can acutally see a light at the end of the tunnel.
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McMetal
Writer of Wrongs
- Sep 29, 2015
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We said that was the worst case scenario, not a guarantee. Just because the worst didn't come to pass doesn't mean it was wrong to be worried. Better to overreact and end up looking foolish than underreact and actually have millions dead.
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