OT: Coronavirus 4 - or is that thread 2.75?

[Blueline Bomber]

Lightning celebrate Stanley Cup by letting fans drink out of it

Seems like a poor idea, given the whole "pandemic" thing. Especially in a state that hasn't been taking it seriously at all.

 

[MinJaBen]

Trump’s doctors are send him to Walter Reid Hospital. Given that the White House has a hospital room inside, this is concerning.

Get well Mr President.






Who I will never vote for.

 

[raynman]

Finale of 2020 boutta be lit.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Trump’s doctors are send him to Walter Reid Hospital. Given that the White House has a hospital room inside, this is concerning.

Get well Mr President.






Who I will never vote for.

I would expect this to be what should be done with the a president of the United States if he has a potentially deadly virus.

I don’t wish death upon anyone and if you do I think you’re kinda f***ed up. My question is, is it awful to wish real shitty symptoms on a person? I mean the morning show I listened to has a whole segment about wishing diarrhea on someone who has pissed you off so it can’t be that far out of bounds, right?

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I would expect this to be what should be done with the a president of the United States if he has a potentially deadly virus.

I don’t wish death upon anyone and if you do I think you’re kinda f***ed up. My question is, is it awful to wish real shitty symptoms on a person? I mean the morning show I listened to has a whole segment about wishing diarrhea on someone who has pissed you off so it can’t be that far out of bounds, right?

Depends if you also wish nausea/heartburn/indigestion, and upset stomach too.

 

[Unsustainable]

Depends if you also wish nausea/heartburn/indigestion, and upset stomach too.

Sounds like an add for something on tv

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I mean, I imagine he’s going to be feeling the effects of it when/if he recovers. UK’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, caught it back in April and recovered, but it clearly took a toll on him. Even today, he looks like death warmed over. And he is younger and healthier than Trump.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

 

[Svechhammer]

Thoughts and prayers during this tough time

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The amount of high ranking Republicans that are coming out and confirming they have the virus now is astounding.

It's starting to look like the White House SCOTUS ceremony was a super spreader event.

 

[Lempo]

The amount of high ranking Republicans that are coming out and confirming they have the virus now is astounding.

It's starting to look like the White House SCOTUS ceremony was a super spreader event.

Death evening up the expected swing at the pro life direction.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

I would expect this to be what should be done with the president of the United States if he has a potentially deadly virus.

I don’t wish death upon anyone and if you do I think you’re kinda f***ed up. My question is, is it awful to wish real shitty symptoms on a person? I mean the morning show I listened to has a whole segment about wishing diarrhea on someone who has pissed you off so it can’t be that far out of bounds, right?

What I am about to say might seem harsh or outright evil, but I stand behind it. There are instances where wishing death upon someone is completely within bounds. Someone murders your child or they are a genocidal dictator. That sort of thing. And sometimes people have lower standards for someone to gain this "status".

And look at it this way. Even though people often look at it the same way, there is a notable difference between wishing illness or death upon someone and being completely indifferent about their fate once they contract the illness.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

The amount of high ranking Republicans that are coming out and confirming they have the virus now is astounding.

It's starting to look like the White House SCOTUS ceremony was a super spreader event.

I think I saw on twitter that there are more Covid cases tied to that event than there are in all of New Zealand.

I wouldn’t wish the disease on anybody, but there is absolutely some satisfaction in seeing Trump mock Biden for wearing a mask in public then testing positive three days later.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I think I saw on twitter that there are more Covid cases tied to that event than there are in all of New Zealand.

I wouldn’t wish the disease on anybody, but there is absolutely some satisfaction in seeing Trump mock Biden for wearing a mask in public then testing positive three days later.

Or the fact that they've been in such a hurry to nominate a replacement for RBG, and now it's iffy if they'll have enough healthy senators to push that nomination through, because of the event they had celebrating the nomination.

As Kellyanne Conway's (who also has COVID now) daughter put it: They wouldn't have Covid if they listened to RBG's final wishes.

 

[The Stranger]

If I understand the recent CDC numbers correctly, they are saying the infection fatality rate in the US is ~0.65%. This is based on their estimate that ~10% of the US population has been infected along with the documented death total. Presumably the IFR is decreasing as hospital protocols and therapeutics improve. So the 0.65% is an average...early IFR being worse. It makes me wonder what the real-time IFR is...how close is it to the flu which is 0.1-0.2%.

I'm thinking specifically about what it will take for the governments to allow sizable attendance at indoor facilities...is there a set of logical gating criteria that could be used? Would a combination of a fluesque IFR along with a healthy level of hospital capacity do the trick?

Many are probably already aware of this site, but rt.live has a nice estimate of the effective transmission rate for each State.

Also, a few days ago someone posted about FL opening up...the same site from that link has this nice page with case graphs for each State and Province that is normalized to population. There was a lot of "flattening the curve" discussion and it's now interesting to look at the actual curves.

Last, any new thoughts on Sweden's strategy? They appear to be doing relatively well now.

 

[Lempo]

Many are probably already aware of this site, but rt.live has a nice estimate of the effective transmission rate for each State.

LOL, I though it was Russia Today Live, and was like, dude, that might be fake news.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

If I understand the recent CDC numbers correctly, they are saying the infection fatality rate in the US is ~0.65%. This is based on their estimate that ~10% of the US population has been infected along with the documented death total. Presumably the IFR is decreasing as hospital protocols and therapeutics improve. So the 0.65% is an average...early IFR being worse. It makes me wonder what the real-time IFR is...how close is it to the flu which is 0.1-0.2%.

I'm thinking specifically about what it will take for the governments to allow sizable attendance at indoor facilities...is there a set of logical gating criteria that could be used? Would a combination of a fluesque IFR along with a healthy level of hospital capacity do the trick?

Many are probably already aware of this site, but rt.live has a nice estimate of the effective transmission rate for each State.

Also, a few days ago someone posted about FL opening up...the same site from that link has this nice page with case graphs for each State and Province that is normalized to population. There was a lot of "flattening the curve" discussion and it's now interesting to look at the actual curves.

Last, any new thoughts on Sweden's strategy? They appear to be doing relatively well now.

There's an article in the Atlantic, that I'm too lazy to go find now, that talks about the effectiveness of countries that have focused on halting super spreader events, and discusses the K metric, the dispersal ratio, as being potentially more important than the R0 metric for COVID.

Sweden seems to be on the list of nations whose policies are controlling for K, while most of the rest of Europe is not at this point.

The US, of course, is barely controlling for anything at all, since we politicized the science, since that's what we do now.

Edit: here's the Atlantic article: This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

And here's another article about K from earlier in the summer: Is the K number the new R number? What you need to know

Oh, and here's an actual paper on GitHub! From March, with data sets included. Analysis from early on that indicates that COVID is "overdispersed". Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

We just had the first plague elections. I was in the counting committee as per usual for the last 3 years.

Same turnoff as usually, both in “my” precinct and nationwide. People were fairly reasonable, 85-90% of them even wore their masks properly.

Tragicomical thing is that this was the first time since April I have been given FPP2. The only time I received one in the hospital was when I was helping our patient at the emergency on Eastern Saturday (he was immobile and there was a skeleton crew at the department).

Not gonna bother you with results, you’d be clueless anyway and I don’t blame you at all.
Let’s just say that I’m disappointed, but hopeful.

 

[Lempo]

Not gonna bother you with results, you’d be clueless anyway

Any changes in Czech Republic's positioning regarding the EU?

The ass-climber still going strong?

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Any changes in Czech Republic's positioning regarding the EU?

The ass-climber still going strong?

These were regionals, so these were not about EU at all.

The dominant ruling party (ANO) of our oligarch won with similar results as in previous election at the cost of their supporting cast suffering heavy losses. Supporting cast being social democrats and communists. Former lost 80% of their seats, latter lost about 75%.

Thing about ANO and their leader is they are not anti-EU, they are pure opportunists. Chinese/Russian bootlicking is president’s domain.

...

What could interest you on this note is that is a rapid spike for our resident anti-EU party, whose entire program is built around refugees, Gypsies and seizures of property.

On the other hand Pirates had an even larger spike and they on the other hand are- way too happy about anything EU says.

With the slow, but steady change of opinion about refugees coming from large countries like France or Italy, I think the Czech attitude towards EU should become slightly more positive with a snarky “We told you” behind it.

...

I am right wing, liberal and cautiously pro-West in the sense that it’s vastly better alternative to the other options.

It’s really fu^king hard to pick, that’s for sure.

 

[The Stranger]

There's an article in the Atlantic, that I'm too lazy to go find now, that talks about the effectiveness of countries that have focused on halting super spreader events, and discusses the K metric, the dispersal ratio, as being potentially more important than the R0 metric for COVID.

Sweden seems to be on the list of nations whose policies are controlling for K, while most of the rest of Europe is not at this point.

The US, of course, is barely controlling for anything at all, since we politicized the science, since that's what we do now.

Edit: here's the Atlantic article: This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

And here's another article about K from earlier in the summer: Is the K number the new R number? What you need to know

Oh, and here's an actual paper on GitHub! From March, with data sets included. Analysis from early on that indicates that COVID is "overdispersed". Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China

Thanks for sharing those links. So 10-20% of the contagious people are responsible for ~80% of the spread. In one respect I feel like this isn't and under-covered topic...there was the South Korean megachurch super-spreader event early on that got a lot of coverage...and I recall a conference in the States that were fingered as an early super-spreader.

However, the Atlantic article does hit on the idea that there are not only super spreader events but super spreader individuals...a large variance in how contagious a person is. They point out that in Sweden they kept schools open for 16 and under with essentially no restrictions, because even if a kid that age gets sick, they are not very contagious. Is this widely understood/agreed on? If so, why are we not matching that policy here?

As far as what we've done in the States, the Atlantic article cites the 50 person limit for indoor gatherings in Sweden and the shutting down of indoor gathering spots like theaters in Japan...lauding those actions as critical for preventing super spreading events...we've done all that and more in the US right?

One thing I'm not seeing in the States is what comes next...most places are in phase 3 now, but we still have many restrictions. How many additional phases should there be between phase 3 and zero restrictions? What criteria should be used. Most importantly, when can fans watch hockey live again?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I'm not even going to hypothesize a response. I think we've long been at the point at which individuals with concerns, like me, are gonna hunker down until the vaccine is mostly available, and individuals without concerns will do what they want, law or guidelines notwithstanding.

Mostly, I just want people to agree on the basic stuff -- like the fact that masks work, and that we should use them. From that respect, the Republican super spreader events may do some actual good.

 

[MinJaBen]

Mostly, I just want people to agree on the basic stuff -- like the fact that masks work, and that we should use them. From that respect, the Republican super spreader events may do some actual good.

I think I see the flaw in your assumptions...

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I think I see the flaw in your assumptions...

I mean, look, it can't get more obvious at this point. It's not about jokes, it's about facts. There are things we can do to protect ourselves and each other, and they work, and they don't require shutting every single thing down, and when we don't do them, people get sick and maybe they die.

There's no way we can get to real policy discussion when we've politicized something as basic and as obvious as wearing masks. It's sad, but it is what it is. In the meantime, I'll protect myself, wait it out, and hope that no one else I know dies.

 

[Unsustainable]

I'm not even going to hypothesize a response. I think we've long been at the point at which individuals with concerns, like me, are gonna hunker down until the vaccine is mostly available, and individuals without concerns will do what they want, law or guidelines notwithstanding.

Mostly, I just want people to agree on the basic stuff -- like the fact that masks work, and that we should use them. From that respect, the Republican super spreader events may do some actual good.

So, are you signing up for first dibs on the vaccine, or going to wait to see how it goes?