Corona Virus Thread Part 3 of ? (MOD NOTE IN OP)

[Whileee]

at a (probably optimistic) death rate of 0.5%, herd immunity (if it exists with covid) would cost the US about 1.2 million lives.

And about 135,000 in Canada, and 4,500 deaths in Manitoba. A disproportionate amount of the deaths would be among nurses and doctors who are in contact with cases with high viral loads. In addition to deaths would be many people ending up in hospitals and ICUs, and a proportion with longer term health consequences including reduced lung function.

 

[Whileee]

Studies by whom?
What is their interest or angle?
Lethal to groups as I mentioned not to the overwhelming majority of the population.
Ground zero is China only 83000 cases yeah sure because the Chinese government is touchy-feely about protecting their citizens.
Sorry I’m not buying what we are being sold anymore.

Studies by responsible public health scientists.

You apparently tend to believe conspiracy theorists instead of people who have spent decades as professionals, including doctors and nurses, to reduce illness and death. That's your prerogative, but if you think those conspiracy theorists don't have their own angles and economic and political agendas, I think that is a very naive perspective.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Nobody believes the numbers China has provided. I don't know why you keep stating that like it's some sort of revelation or changes anything about how to manage the situation.

Because it matters.
It originated there.
You don’t find that odd?
This killer virus magically affected Western Europe and North American only?
I have issues with not knowing what the real death toll or infection rate is.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Studies by responsible public health scientists.

You apparently tend to believe conspiracy theorists instead of people who have spent decades as professionals, including doctors and nurses, to reduce illness and death. That's your prerogative, but if you think those conspiracy theorists don't have their own angles and economic and political agendas, I think that is a very naive perspective.

I remember when this was virus was a non issue according to Dr. Tam on January 29 th and then Trudeau saying to trust science on March 13th which is it ?
Those same experts that advise our government aren’t at all unanimously reaching the same conclusions.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Because it matters.
It originated there.
You don’t find that odd?
This killer virus magically affected Western Europe and North American only?
I have issues with not knowing what the real death toll or infection rate is.

I don't even know what you're thinking. What's odd? China is lying about the numbers affected by the virus. We all know that to be true. It didn't magically affect Europe and NA only.

 

[Whileee]

Because it matters.
It originated there.
You don’t find that odd?
This killer virus magically affected Western Europe and North American only?
I have issues with not knowing what the real death toll or infection rate is.

The virus crossed into humans in China (just like the "Spanish" flu crossed from pigs to humans in Kansas, and MERS from camels to humans in the middle East). I am skeptical about case numbers in China, but it's ridiculous to say it's only affecting western Europe and N America. It's all over SE Asia at various levels, south Asia, west Asia (Iran had high impact), Africa, and S America. That's what highly infectious viruses do - they spread globally. There is much that needs to be learned about the susceptibility in different global regions, based on immunity and other factors that might amplify or dampen the impact.

But this sort of pandemic has been anticipated and predicted for some time by virologists and epidemiologists. The influenza epidemic of 1918 showed what a viral pandemic could do with a high lethality and no vaccine. SARS and MERS gave more recent warnings about dangerous coronaviruses that could cross over to humans from animals. Most governments haven't heeded the warnings, so the global response has been inadequate. China's late disclosures made it worse, as did the lack of an aggressive response by the WHO, Europe and the US.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I don't even know what you're thinking. What's odd? China is lying about the numbers affected by the virus. We all know that to be true. It didn't magically affect Europe and NA only.

The last lines of my post
Actual infection and death rate.

 

[SensibleGuy]

The last lines of my post
Actual infection and death rate.

LOL. Oh you do? Well welcome to reality. EVERYONE has issues with not knowing those numbers! We won't know those numbers till we've determined the actual infection rate. But 0.5% is probably lower than the real number is going to end up.

 

[Whileee]

I remember when this was virus was a non issue according to Dr. Tam on January 29 th and then Trudeau saying to trust science on March 13th which is it ?
Those same experts that advise our government aren’t at all unanimously reaching the same conclusions.

In retrospect, many scientists were overly optimistic, probably because they didn't have accurate information about how long it had circulated in China, or how infectious and lethal it was. Previous coronavirus outbreaks (SARS and MERS) had been contained, mostly because they weren't as stable or contageous as covid-19 has turned out to be.

 

[Eyeseeing]

The virus crossed into humans in China (just like the "Spanish" flu crossed from pigs to humans in Kansas, and MERS from camels to humans in the middle East). I am skeptical about case numbers in China, but it's ridiculous to say it's only affecting western Europe and N America. It's all over SE Asia at various levels, south Asia, west Asia (Iran had high impact), Africa, and S America. That's what highly infectious viruses do - they spread globally. There is much that needs to be learned about the susceptibility in different global regions, based on immunity and other factors that might amplify or dampen the impact.

But this sort of pandemic has been anticipated and predicted for some time by virologists and epidemiologists. The influenza epidemic of 1918 showed what a viral pandemic could do with a high lethality and no vaccine. SARS and MERS gave more recent warnings about dangerous coronaviruses that could cross over to humans from animals. Most governments haven't heeded the warnings, so the global response has been inadequate. China's late disclosures made it worse, as did the lack of an aggressive response by the WHO, Europe and the US.

Hi Whileee
I might be more convinced if the actions across the country were unanimous but they are not.
There are political ideologies in every province to consider for sure but the takeaway is the individual provinces have “experts” and each province will cite those “experts” that suit their narrative much like you or I would.
So to say my views are naive or biased are no different than yours and therein lies the paradox.
Who is right and who is wrong?

 

[Eyeseeing]

LOL. Oh you do? Well welcome to reality. EVERYONE has issues with not knowing those numbers! We won't know those numbers till we've determined the actual infection rate. But 0.5% is probably lower than the real number is going to end up.

It’s probably much much lower

 

[SensibleGuy]

It’s probably much much lower

I doubt it. I mean that would be great if it is, but we'll see right? It looks to me like it'll be somewhere around .8%...

 

[Eyeseeing]

I doubt it. I mean that would be great if it is, but we'll see right? It looks to me like it'll be somewhere around .8%...

We’ll agree to disagree respectfully
I don’t trust the Chinese numbers anymore than I trust ours.
These numbers won’t be known for a long time.
As much as I may disagree with you and others I welcome the opportunity to discuss openly without hostility.
Cheers Eye

 

[Whileee]

Hi Whileee
I might be more convinced if the actions across the country were unanimous but they are not.
There are political ideologies in every province to consider for sure but the takeaway is the individual provinces have “experts” and each province will cite those “experts” that suit their narrative much like you or I would.
So to say my views are naive or biased are no different than yours and therein lies the paradox.
Who is right and who is wrong?

Experts work for other bureaucrats and politicians that have diverse agendas. The various responses are not being driven entirely by scientific opinion. Scientists in government roles are constantly walking a line between defying the expedient instincts of politicians and the need to try coax them to follow more science based pathways.

I believe that there is objective evidence about the virology, immunology and epidemiology that will determine the course of the epidemic and what control measures will work, or not. More and more of that evidence has emerged as the epidemic has unfolded. All of the hand-waving about politics and conspiracies is to be expected with the stakes so high, but it's not really a rational basis for individual or collective action.

 

[Whileee]

It’s probably much much lower

1.3% of everyone infected with coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship died. Average age was 58, so adjusting for a more normal age distribution the estimated fatality rate for those infected in a population with a more normal age distribution is estimated to be around 0.6%.

 

[Eyeseeing]

1.3% of everyone infected with coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship died. Average age was 58, so adjusting for a more normal age distribution the estimated fatality rate for those infected in a population with a more normal age distribution is estimated to be around 0.6%.

Small sample size AND low hanging fruit
Sorry Whileee I had to
I like your posts as you know.
This will not be known for some time.
I did a 15 km walk yesterday and this am and going for another one now
Good night sir
Hey I’m 58 ... coincidence

 

[Whileee]

Small sample size AND low hanging fruit
Sorry Whileee I had to
I like your posts as you know.
This will not be known for some time.
I did a 15 km walk yesterday and this am and going for another one now
Good night sir
Hey I’m 58 ... coincidence

Plenty of other data that suggests a mortality rate estimate of 0.5 to 1.0%.

Enjoy the walk... A great think to do at any age!

 

[raideralex99]

Studies by responsible public health scientists.

You apparently tend to believe conspiracy theorists instead of people who have spent decades as professionals, including doctors and nurses, to reduce illness and death. That's your prerogative, but if you think those conspiracy theorists don't have their own angles and economic and political agendas, I think that is a very naive perspective.

Are doctors working in the ER conspiracy theorists???
I have seem numerous doctor's videos online (before youtube removes them) that are telling different stories than what we are hearing by the media.
Like the LA ER doctor said "we are in the ER everyday ... Dr. Fauci has not seen a patient in 20 years."
Has Fauci been right about anything???
Fauci was the one who granted $3.75 Million to the Wuhan Lab in China.
The videos out there on Fauci are unbelievable and they are done by a lot of different people too ... are they all conspiracy theorists?
Where are the numbers?
How many doctors and nurses died?
It's a good thing they are cutting back their hours or laying them off ... more will survive but we will miss their tictock videos which are really funny.
Seriously I'm not down playing the virus .... I'm just saying they are overplaying the fear. We know enough about the virus that it's deadly to old people and the not so fit people so protect them. Let the rest of the World get back to normal.

 

[raideralex99]

All here we go again ... more doom and gloom.
Killer Hornets only lasted a couple days so lets starts the next story ..."Experts predict an above-average 2020 Atlantic hurricane season"
Experts predict an above-average 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

 

[SUX2BU]

Blue dragons anyone?

 

[Gm0ney]

All here we go again ... more doom and gloom.
Killer Hornets only lasted a couple days so lets starts the next story ..."Experts predict an above-average 2020 Atlantic hurricane season"
Experts predict an above-average 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

I don't know if the spring hurricane forecast is typically very accurate.

 

[buggs]

Experts work for other bureaucrats and politicians that have diverse agendas. The various responses are not being driven entirely by scientific opinion. Scientists in government roles are constantly walking a line between defying the expedient instincts of politicians and the need to try coax them to follow more science based pathways.

I believe that there is objective evidence about the virology, immunology and epidemiology that will determine the course of the epidemic and what control measures will work, or not. More and more of that evidence has emerged as the epidemic has unfolded. All of the hand-waving about politics and conspiracies is to be expected with the stakes so high, but it's not really a rational basis for individual or collective action.

People really need to read that part a couple of times over.

Having worked both provincially and federally I can tell you that each party has an agenda and science is often quite inconvenient for that agenda. I've been under Conservative, Liberal and NDP governments and they all will scuttle what they don't like.

 

[raideralex99]

Oops looks like somebody is getting called out for inflating the numbers.
“There Is Nothing from the CDC I Can Trust!” – Dr. Birx Tells Off CDC Director, Claims COVID-19 Mortality Rate Inflated By as Much as 25%!

Would this be classified as covid-19 death?
Surfer, 26, Killed In Shark Attack Off Central California Coast
Surfer, 26, Killed In Shark Attack Off Central California Coast

 

[JetsFan815]

Some people have really embarrassed themselves in their takes about this pandemic. Like worse than wanting Mark Stuart and Jay Harrison to be on our top pairing.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Some people have really embarrassed themselves in their takes about this pandemic. Like worse than wanting Mark Stuart and Jay Harrison to be on our top pairing.

I'm opting out. The level of dumb is off the charts.