Corona Virus Thread Part 3 of ? (MOD NOTE IN OP)

[Eyeseeing]

That's just awful to look at . I golfed today and the wind was nasty but at least no snow, yet.

Again ?
Lol I’m SUPER EXTREMELY JEALOUS
We bottled a wine kit today and did a 15km walk
I’m having an exercise beer now

 

[Mud Turtle]

So this happened today. Probably the creepiest thing I’ve ever seen Justin Trudeau do.
I don’t need him telling my kids what to do for Mother’s Day.
That creepy stare!

 

[EpicGingy]

So this happened today. Probably the creepiest thing I’ve ever seen Justin Trudeau do.
I don’t need him telling my kids what to do for Mother’s Day.
That creepy stare!

That actually made me laugh

 

[tbcwpg]

So this happened today. Probably the creepiest thing I’ve ever seen Justin Trudeau do.
I don’t need him telling my kids what to do for Mother’s Day.
That creepy stare!

Despite how I feel about his politics, his speech voice is awful.

 

[Jets 31]

Holy crap am I ever sick of global pandemics and polar vortexes...

So frigging true. I'm also sick of WIND and the lies from mother nature, hey look outside this morning it's sunny and beautiful until you open your door and go outside to find out you don't have enough jackets on .

 

[Jets 31]

Despite how I feel about his politics, his speech voice is awful.

It's too lishpy .

 

[SensibleGuy]

So frigging true. I'm also sick of WIND and the lies from mother nature, hey look outside this morning it's sunny and beautiful until you open your door and go outside to find out you don't have enough jackets on .

Absolutely. Wind has become some sort of mathematical constant...it's just always there now.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Absolutely. Wind has become some sort of mathematical constant...it's just always there now.

A cool way to look at wind around the world.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

 

[puck stoppa]

With the low numbers our province has and active cases getting closer to zero would we reopen at a much faster rate than other provinces. I don’t get how Quebec is reopening being our epicentre but our province seems in the best shape in the country to reopen. Only thing that could set us back is travellers coming in and reinfecting. Am I off base here?
Life won’t be normal but we should be able to open up more things as active cases get to zero.

 

[tbcwpg]

With the low numbers our province has and active cases getting closer to zero would we reopen at a much faster rate than other provinces. I don’t get how Quebec is reopening being our epicentre but our province seems in the best shape in the country to reopen. Only thing that could set us back is travellers coming in and reinfecting. Am I off base here?
Life won’t be normal but we should be able to open up more things as active cases get to zero.

Until testing capacity increases I don't think opening quickly is a good idea, though Winnipeg and Manitoba might be an ideal testing ground - low case numbers and a medium-sized city. You'd need increased testing capacity and tests where the results are given quickly.

 

[SensibleGuy]

we have lots of testing capacity. We aren't currently using our full capacity...

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I remain at Lake of the Woods to this day. Probably staying there until it's all over. Almost have no idea what it's like in Winnipeg right now, other than the snaps my brother sends me.

I talked with my boss the other day, told work will start up again possibly after a vaccine is announced.

 

[raideralex99]

we have lots of testing capacity. We aren't currently using our full capacity...

Seriously why do you need to be tested if you have no symptoms?
Check out what Americans not the media are saying about the drive up testing centers in the US ... they are empty but because the controlling media are pushing more testing more testing more testing that's all the sheep hear.
I think the person who posted "if Hillary would have won the covid-19 pandemic would have never existed" might be right.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Seriously why do you need to be tested if you have no symptoms?
Check out what Americans not the media are saying about the drive up testing centers in the US ... they are empty but because the controlling media are pushing more testing more testing more testing that's all the sheep hear.
I think the person who posted "if Hillary would have won the covid-19 pandemic would have never existed" might be right.

You need testing when you find a case. You find a confirmed case, you immediately start isolating and testing everyone who's been in contact with that person. Hopefully, given the measures people are supposed to be taking (hand-washing, social distancing, etc) you are able to then keep ahead of any potential spread. That works when you don't have so many cases you get overwhelmed.

Oh, and if you are the POTUS or anyone he works with. Then there's testing. Lots and lots of testing.

 

[Eyeseeing]

So this happened today. Probably the creepiest thing I’ve ever seen Justin Trudeau do.
I don’t need him telling my kids what to do for Mother’s Day.
That creepy stare!

It would have been a tad bit creepier done in a clown suit and with a sock puppet.

 

[Eyeseeing]

we have lots of testing capacity. We aren't currently using our full capacity...

This thing is becoming more and more bizarre as time unfolds.
At first it was prudent to lock down as the virus was a great unknown.
Then it became apparent that older people and those with underlying health issues were the ones that were succumbing to this and many we’re already hospitalized prior to passing away.
We were asked to stay home and in many cases fall on our economic swords to flatten the curve which is now becoming eliminate the curve which is not ever happening.
Trudeau has suggested that he may restrict freedoms if he has to again.... really?
So we continue to take chances like a blind roofer in regards to what exactly?
What’s the criteria to move forward.
Case count?
Deaths?
I am not comfortable with the message coming out of Ottawa as our government seems incapable of laying out the ground work to show what plan they have.
It’s becoming apparent the general population can withstand the virus.
Let’s get the elderly protected and continue to move forward

 

[Whileee]

Seriously why do you need to be tested if you have no symptoms?
Check out what Americans not the media are saying about the drive up testing centers in the US ... they are empty but because the controlling media are pushing more testing more testing more testing that's all the sheep hear.
I think the person who posted "if Hillary would have won the covid-19 pandemic would have never existed" might be right.

This is nuts. This has nothing to do with "sheep" or politics, it has to do with the circulation of a virus that is highly infectious and has a relatively high case fatality rate. It has no cure and no vaccine. Therefore, other non-biomedical control measures are necessary to reduce mortality and morbidity. Even if there is a segment of the population that is uneducated or is overly cavalier about their own health, it is irresponsible to let the epidemic go uncontrolled to protect health care providers that cannot avoid exposure completely, and the elderly and those with other medical conditions that are at much greater risk of death.

Here's the sequence, using public health logic...

Step 1 ("the hammer"): Introduce social distancing / isolation to reduce the transmission for several weeks to reduce the number of cases to a very low level. Time frame: 3-4 months, depending on how effective the public is in reducing transmission.

Step 2 ("the dance"): Reduce social distancing overall, but refrain from opening very large gatherings, and enhance testing availability to a wider range of people with symptoms. Also, introduce aggressive contact tracing, which means interviewing people who test positive and then testing contacts to identify any other people infected - isolate / quarantine positives for 2-3 weeks. Implement widespread and frequent testing for health care personnel, and perhaps for personnel that interact with a large number of the public. Time frame: 12-15 months, depending on how long it takes to develop and distribute effective vaccine / treatment.

Step 3 ("the end game"): Introduce an effective vaccine and/or effective treatment to reduce mortality and morbidity. Time frame: 6-12 months, depending on availability and efficiency of implementing vaccination programs.

There is a very nice non-technical article written about this...

 

[Whileee]

This thing is becoming more and more bizarre as time unfolds.
At first it was prudent to lock down as the virus was a great unknown.
Then it became apparent that older people and those with underlying health issues were the ones that were succumbing to this and many we’re already hospitalized prior to passing away.
We were asked to stay home and in many cases fall on our economic swords to flatten the curve which is now becoming eliminate the curve which is not ever happening.
Trudeau has suggested that he may restrict freedoms if he has to again.... really?
So we continue to take chances like a blind roofer in regards to what exactly?
What’s the criteria to move forward.
Case count?
Deaths?
I am not comfortable with the message coming out of Ottawa as our government seems incapable of laying out the ground work to show what plan they have.
It’s becoming apparent the general population can withstand the virus.
Let’s get the elderly protected and continue to move forward

At most, about 2-4% of Canadians have been infected (much less in Manitoba, more in QC). We haven't had to "withstand the virus", because we've been effective at reducing transmission. The case fatality rate is a stubborn fact. If we decide to "let the general population withstand the virus", it means letting 20 times as many Canadians get infected, we can expect 20 times the mortality. Here's the problem with the idea of just "protecting the elderly" - they aren't the only ones who will be at high risk. The entire health care system - first responders, nurses, doctors, lab techs, etc. will be inundated with cases, and inevitably a high proportion will become infected. Then how will you care for the elderly and infirmed?

It's just magical thinking that because we haven't seen the same dramatic impacts of places like NYC and N Italy that it won't happen in Canada or Manitoba (and those places have only had about 20% of their population infected so far).

The main problem is not about testing per se, but the lack of resources or systems for contact tracing, which is very resource-intensive. S Korea has invested very heavily in a public health workforce that interviews and tracks and tests all the contacts of cases. That is feasible when the case numbers are very low (as in Manitoba), but it's not feasible while the case numbers are high (as in ON / QC and many states in the US that have opened too early).

The too early re-opening due to political and economic pressure has basically made the job way more difficult, and perhaps impossible for the public health system to manage. It's one thing to do testing and contact tracing when you are dealing with 10 or 20 cases at a time, but when you try to do that when you are getting hundreds of cases a day, it overwhelms the capacity to use testing and contact tracing effectively.

 

[Whileee]

A cogent explanation about the fallacy of an easy road to "herd immunity", from the Johns Hopkins University...

Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception

Here are some sobering facts:

Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”9 akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. For example, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 1%. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, killing almost 2,000 Americans every day.8 Chickenpox never killed more than 150 Americans in a year.

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

 

[flyingkiwi]

France is somewhat opening up tomorrow. Retail is opening but bars and restaurants remain closed except for takeaway. We no longer have to stay within a 1km radius for exercise nor do we have to carry a signed form stating the purpose of our excursion unless you're travelling beyond 100km. Schools progressively reopening too and gatherings with 10 or fewer people now permitted. Masks obligatory on public transport.

I've been alone in my apartment for two months so I'm looking forward to expanding my circle to include a couple of close friends that live nearby, and also buying some new clothes for summer. Otherwise I'll be keeping pretty low because I can totally see the rest of France abusing the new freedoms and a second wave hitting pretty quickly.

 

[Eyeseeing]

At most, about 2-4% of Canadians have been infected (much less in Manitoba, more in QC). We haven't had to "withstand the virus", because we've been effective at reducing transmission. The case fatality rate is a stubborn fact. If we decide to "let the general population withstand the virus", it means letting 20 times as many Canadians get infected, we can expect 20 times the mortality. Here's the problem with the idea of just "protecting the elderly" - they aren't the only ones who will be at high risk. The entire health care system - first responders, nurses, doctors, lab techs, etc. will be inundated with cases, and inevitably a high proportion will become infected. Then how will you care for the elderly and infirmed?

It's just magical thinking that because we haven't seen the same dramatic impacts of places like NYC and N Italy that it won't happen in Canada or Manitoba (and those places have only had about 20% of their population infected so far).

The main problem is not about testing per se, but the lack of resources or systems for contact tracing, which is very resource-intensive. S Korea has invested very heavily in a public health workforce that interviews and tracks and tests all the contacts of cases. That is feasible when the case numbers are very low (as in Manitoba), but it's not feasible while the case numbers are high (as in ON / QC and many states in the US that have opened too early).

The too early re-opening due to political and economic pressure has basically made the job way more difficult, and perhaps impossible for the public health system to manage. It's one thing to do testing and contact tracing when you are dealing with 10 or 20 cases at a time, but when you try to do that when you are getting hundreds of cases a day, it overwhelms the capacity to use testing and contact tracing effectively.

The number of cases is very likely much, much more than reported as there is no way in Gods green earth that the reported cases on a crowded planet is only 4 1/2 million out of 7 billion makes no sense at all.
The death count directly attributable to Covid only without other causes will never be known as autopsies aren’t being done in every case.
It could be a lot lower than reported, you don’t know and I don’t know.
Communicable diseases have higher death rates in densely populated areas not shocking.
Do you honestly believe the Chinese case numbers are that low, I know I don’t.
I also don’t like the fact that anyone can pull articles from the internet to try to convince others that they are correct.
I respectfully disagree with you on this.
We need to reopen and we should give personal distance and practice personal hygiene although I can’t believe people have to be told that.

 

[Whileee]

The number of cases is very likely much, much more than reported as there is no way in Gods green earth that the reported cases on a crowded planet is only 4 1/2 million out of 7 billion makes no sense at all.
The death count directly attributable to Covid only without other causes will never be known as autopsies aren’t being done in every case.
It could be a lot lower than reported, you don’t know and I don’t know.
Communicable diseases have higher death rates in densely populated areas not shocking.
Do you honestly believe the Chinese case numbers are that low, I know I don’t.
I also don’t like the fact that anyone can pull articles from the internet to try to convince others that they are correct.
I respectfully disagree with you on this.
We need to reopen and we should give personal distance and practice personal hygiene although I can’t believe people have to be told that.

There have been a number of studies and projections, and in Canada and the US a very small proportion of the population has been infected thus far (NYC is at the highest end at around 21%).

I don't just pull articles from the internet, this is an area in which I have knowledge. I am sharing articles that are available on the internet to share information in an understandable way. Moreover, I'm not crazy about how some people share their own opinions or debunked conspiracy theories to try to persuade others. Your statements about prevalence and mortality are simply wrong, and yes there are many responsible public health scientists that have valid ways to make those estimates. There are also very careful studies in closed populations (like a cruise ship) that have found that the case fatality rate was around 1% (for all cases).

I realize that you and others might not agree with the facts, and that I won't persuade you, but that doesn't change the nature of this virus in terms of its infectiousness and lethality. Those characteristics of the pathogen will determine its impact under different public health policies.

 

[SensibleGuy]

at a (probably optimistic) death rate of 0.5%, herd immunity (if it exists with covid) would cost the US about 1.2 million lives.

 

[Eyeseeing]

There have been a number of studies and projections, and in Canada and the US a very small proportion of the population has been infected thus far (NYC is at the highest end at around 21%).

I don't just pull articles from the internet, this is an area in which I have knowledge. I am sharing articles that are available on the internet to share information in an understandable way. Moreover, I'm not crazy about how some people share their own opinions or debunked conspiracy theories to try to persuade others. Your statements about prevalence and mortality are simply wrong, and yes there are many responsible public health scientists that have valid ways to make those estimates. There are also very careful studies in closed populations (like a cruise ship) that have found that the case fatality rate was around 1% (for all cases).

I realize that you and others might not agree with the facts, and that I won't persuade you, but that doesn't change the nature of this virus in terms of its infectiousness and lethality. Those characteristics of the pathogen will determine its impact under different public health policies.

Studies by whom?
What is their interest or angle?
Lethal to groups as I mentioned not to the overwhelming majority of the population.
Ground zero is China only 83000 cases yeah sure because the Chinese government is touchy-feely about protecting their citizens.
Sorry I’m not buying what we are being sold anymore.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Nobody believes the numbers China has provided. I don't know why you keep stating that like it's some sort of revelation or changes anything about how to manage the situation.