Speculation: Copp's future?

[Tommigun]

Copp wpuld get you a 2nd on a bad day...probably a small add to a late 1st at the TD.
I think Chevy signs him for around 12m over 3 years. That or 4.25m for one year.
Not sure about Pionk but I would give him 1 x 4.25m and an agreement that I sign him to a 6 x 6.5m extension right after Christmas.

… and then trade him on a cheap contract before Christmas.

 

[Adam da bomb]

… and then trade him on a cheap contract before Christmas.

Or for Christmas best or worst Christmas ever.

 

[BatVader]

Why not move Copp to Seattle for Appleton +

 

[Skidooboy]

I don't understand your argument. Older, more expensive players go for a 1st plus a prospect at the deadline every year...Foligno had 16 points in 42 game for Columbus and the return was a 1st and a 4th at the trade deadline. Eric Staal got a 3rd and a 5th and he had 10 points in 32 games at the deadline. Copp is surely better than both of those players...a 1st would not be out of the question if he has a decent year.

Copp isn't a veteran leader with multiple medal/Championships under his belt. Foligno was a Captain and leader and has already been a UFA so his value is known.
. and those are BAD over- pays...the kind we would scream about if Chevy made them.

 

[garret9]

Be average then. We have 3 years. I want a cup. This is our best chance. This doesn't mean as a can't keep him at the end of the day.

Using Garrett as an authority with me means zero. He says a lot of things. #freepostma, #freedano, #freepetan, Hutch is going to be great, Burmi is a 2c, Stanley is too tall. Etc etc etc.

I mean, sure if you want to lie, I said all those things and more. There's also getting fooled with some of my silliness and my real stuff. Ex: I thought Niku was an awesome *7th round* draft pick, but eventually we made that grow into something silly.

Let's just isolate one of these... Stanley.

My issue with Logan Stanley was always one of three key points:

1) Logan Stanley was a legit NHL prospect.
There were teams that straight up didn't have him on their board but I was not one of them. I thought Stanley had some NHL qualities to him. Receipts:
Here:

The truth is that Stanley is still a legitimate NHL prospect that would be a welcomed addition to the Jets’ prospect cupboard

As I noted before, Stanley is still a player I would welcome into the Jets’ organization. After all the flaws I have pointed out, there are still aspects to his game that makes him better than other players who will be drafted, even to the Jets. There is also the chance that Stanley could be the exception and I understand there are things some professional scouts may have seen that I have not.

I also wrote my own scouting article on the things I liked about Stanley.
I also showed a bunch of examples of players that beat the "statistical odds".

2) The issue was opportunity costs; I felt the Jets would be better served going for higher scoring players that have more upside.
I specifically stated that I would have drafted Girrard and DeBrincat rather than the trade up Stanley and back for Green.
I will preface that both Girrard and DeBrincat have been slightly better than I expected (but not better than I projected as possible with them being the top 2 NA scorers for their position adjusting for age, usage, league, and such).

3) Scoring isn't the only thing that matters for defensive prospects, but it matters a lot, and more than NHL scouts and GMs tend to weight it.
A high scoring 2nd-3rd round pick on average performs about the same as a low scoring 1st rounder.
A high scoring 4th+ round pick on average performs about the same as a low scoring 2nd-3rd rounder.
So scouts legit find things beyond scoring... they just overvalue it slightly.

 

[garret9]

Using Garrett as an authority with me means zero. He says a lot of things. #freepostma, #freedano, #freepetan, Hutch is going to be great, Burmi is a 2c, Stanley is too tall. Etc etc etc.

**** it. I got some time.

Almost all of these are the same mistaking when I'm talking about relative costs and risks.

1) Postma
Postma played 2000 mins as a Jet from 2011-17. Prior to getting Myers I thought he was better than some of the players the Jets rolled out on the 3rd pair. After getting Myers I thought he was worse than Myers but at a larger cap difference in impact. Like being a good third pairing dman is still a bad player relative to an average player haha.

-He did better in goals than Hainsey, Stuart, Morrissey, Chiarot, Harrison, and Oduya.
-He did better in expected goals than Oduya, Morrissey, Chiarot, Bogosian, Hainsey, Stuart, Harrison, and Clitsome.
-Adjust for his soft usage he still did better in goals than Chiarot, Harriosn, and Oduya.
-Adjust for his soft usage he still did better in expected goals than Chiarot, Bogosian, Clitsome, Stuart, Harrison, and Morrissey.

2) Dano
Litterately copy and paste Postma. He was indeed better than some of the depth guys. The Jets did better in fancy stats, but they also just did better in goals... the whole point of the game.

3) Petan
Petan was a mixed thing. I think he showed he legit could play in some deployments but I also argued that he was BAD to play in others. Example I said that Petan playing with Thorburn and Copp made the Jets 4th line worse. He did do a decent job elevated in the middle six unlike other alternatives who sucked when they played up there.

4) Hutch
I mean I joked Hutch is clutch, but I argued Hutch was worth keeping over Pavelec... I don't think you'll see many arguing against that now. Are you going to? There's no point I argued Hutch over Hellebuyck. I did say Jets probably would have done better with keeping Hutch over signing Mason... but I'm sure the trade for a buyout proves nothing.

5) Burmistrov pre-KHL was not a 2C... but he was the Jets second best centre (aside from Wellwood who they always played on the wing) and he was part of the Jets best performing second line (Kane-Burmi-Wellwood). He had legit chemistry with Kane, something the other centres did not (Little, rookie Schiefele, Jokinen).
I did think Burmistrov had potential to be a good 2C for the Jets behind Scheifele. He came back from KHL though very different, and as my scribe friend Patrick Johsnton said "hurt and jaded." I do wonder what would have been but that's just speculation by anyone.

So ya... nice try though. Keep taking Ls and I'll keep showing receipts.

 

[Cypruss]

Tell me what you would offer for cop at the trade deadline on a one-year expiring contract where he’s about to turn UFA. Can you tell me what he’s worth.

A hurt Foligno, producing less than Copp, generated a first at the deadline in his "about to be a UFA" year. Copp would get at least a second this year, if not a first. No doubt in my mind.

 

[garret9]

But that doesn’t matter when he is our best d. Also stats and charts prove you are wrong. Garrett posted a chart that says he does most things at a 1st pairing level. So I’m goin to go with them.

Well to further hurt @TS Quint I will have to actually refute Adam here.

Pionk put up results typical of a 1st pairing defender last season... but some caveats:
- the league had no divisional crossing, so you have to take the results with a grain of salt unless comparing only within division
- 1 seasons worth of results may be a flash in the pan
- it's easier to stand out on a bad team than a good team, and defensively the Jets were not a good team

Pionk is likely the Jets best defender, and Pionk may be a legit 1st pairing defender... but he could just be a 2nd pairing guy just like DeMelo, Dillon, and Schmidt (and hopefully Morrissey bounces back to one).

That said, it does seem like Maurice trusted Pionk against the league's best more than anyone else.

 

[Pongs21]

Listening to spittin chiclets and they mention that Copp doesn't want to go through arbitration again.

 

[GNP]

It may have been a very good idea to expose Copp in the expansion draft, and protect Appleton. They are both similar types of players, and I think Appleton has more upside with better scoring hands.

Right now Copp is the better player, and more reliable, but we may not be able to afford him, whereas with Appleton, we could have kept him. I'm sure the Jets mulled this around. Maybe they can still sign Copp tho ?? - very tight.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't understand your argument. Older, more expensive players go for a 1st plus a prospect at the deadline every year...Foligno had 16 points in 42 game for Columbus and the return was a 1st and a 4th at the trade deadline. Eric Staal got a 3rd and a 5th and he had 10 points in 32 games at the deadline. Copp is surely better than both of those players...a 1st would not be out of the question if he has a decent year.

His TD value is completely irrelevant because we are not going to be deadline sellers in the foreseeable future.

 

[Buffdog]

It may have been a very good idea to expose Copp in the expansion draft, and protect Appleton. They are both similar types of players, and I think Appleton has more upside with better scoring hands.

Right now Copp is the better player, and more reliable, but we may not be able to afford him, whereas with Appleton, we could have kept him. I'm sure the Jets mulled this around. Maybe they can still sign Copp tho ?? - very tight.

I kinda assume that chevy had an idea that had he done that, Seattle would have chosen demelo over copp - and that was before the trades that bolstered our d. Our right side would have consisted of pionk, and that's it

 

[GNP]

I kinda assume that chevy had an idea that had he done that, Seattle would have chosen demelo over copp - and that was before the trades that bolstered our d. Our right side would have consisted of pionk, and that's it

_________________________________________________

You make a very good point there Buffdog, and I never thought of that.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I kinda assume that chevy had an idea that had he done that, Seattle would have chosen demelo over copp - and that was before the trades that bolstered our d. Our right side would have consisted of pionk, and that's it

Or he thought he'd have plenty of cap space to resign Copp and never saw Dillion and Schmidt falling into his lap.

 

[mondo3]

Based upon Seattle’s picking a lot of low cost players and the Jets trying to last-minute trade Appleton I’m guessing Seattle’s order from the draft would be:
Stanley
Appleton
Harkins
Copp
DeMelo

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Or he thought he'd have plenty of cap space to resign Copp and never saw Dillion and Schmidt falling into his lap.

Unlikely seeing as tho all the insiders the last year have been going on about Jets upgrading the D. Manson. Oleksiak. Eckholm Schmidt Dillon were all mentioned. Ristolainen also. I mean for the last year now really

 

[10Ducky10]

Manson. Oleksiak. Eckholm Schmidt Dillon were all mentioned. Ristolainen also. I mean for the last year now really

Thank God Philly gave up a small fortune for Risto and he didn't come here...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I kinda assume that chevy had an idea that had he done that, Seattle would have chosen demelo over copp - and that was before the trades that bolstered our d. Our right side would have consisted of pionk, and that's it

That makes some sense, up to a point. He would have had to assume that Francis was going to make some crazy choices. He was able to pick quite a strong D corps - without taking DeMelo. His forward corps leaves a lot to be desired and would have been better with Copp. But Seattle did make some pretty questionable picks, so who knows?

 

[Teemusalami204]

See ya later pal. The fact you have who you have as an agent shows everyone your not here long term.

 

[drumzan]

How much Cap space is left after Pionk signing, including LTIR?

 

[Channelcat]

It may have been a very good idea to expose Copp in the expansion draft, and protect Appleton. They are both similar types of players, and I think Appleton has more upside with better scoring hands.

Right now Copp is the better player, and more reliable, but we may not be able to afford him, whereas with Appleton, we could have kept him. I'm sure the Jets mulled this around. Maybe they can still sign Copp tho ?? - very tight.

Exposing Copp would have been a slap in the face after the arbitration thing....but yes, they probably should have exposed him. We need players like Copp.....but unfortunately he's asking for more than he's worth

 

[Brominator]

How much Cap space is left after Pionk signing, including LTIR?

I think we have about 980k in cap space without using LTIR. After Little's space becomes available, we have about 6.3M. This is based on my look at Capfriendly.

 

[pateramus]

By when do they have to submit their rosters? To use Little’s LTIR money, the Jets have to wait till after they submit their roster to be able to sign Copp, right?

 

[Jetsfan79]

I think we have about 980k in cap space without using LTIR. After Little's space becomes available, we have about 6.3M. This is based on my look at Capfriendly.

hmm Ates says it's less (3.9 left). Admittedly, Cap stuff is not my forte'

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

Getting rid of BooBoo would open more cap, which is probably the next step here.