Confirmed with Link: Cooper Marody Acquired from Flyers for 3rd Round Pick (NJ) [UPD: Signed to 3-year ELC]

[Jumptheshark]

A) No way Chia wastes a 3rd round pick on a player he doesn't beleive he can sign. I have to believe that there were preliminary discussions.
B) We do know that its approx 8% likelihood that a 3rd round draft pick becomes an NHL top 6 player which is what your post was based on. Considering past college players Marody's stats translate to at least a bottom 6 player.
C) A potential depth player is exactly what Marody looks to be. 3rd round Draft picks are just as unproven if not more so than a college player who is playing against men at least.

The only potential issue I see with this trade is if Chiarelli cant sign him. If he does sign him its good value for a 3rd rounder IMO.

He wasted a first and second on an ahl guy

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Don Luce was a very good 2nd line center who played behind Gilbert Perreault in the 70's for Sabres

Or how about Don Luce: Mafia Boss.

Don Luce mafia boss - Google Search

 

[McJadeddog]

He wasted a first and second on an ahl guy

Yeah, exactly. Chia is a buffoon of the highest merit. Why anybody would question his ability to make stupid moves at this time is beyond me.

 

[guymez]

He wasted a first and second on an ahl guy

Well thats a bit dishonest.
Do you know that Reinhart was never going to be an NHL player?
Obviously Chiarelli way overpaid but many on here believed that Reinhart was at least going to be a #5/6 dman.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Well thats a bit dishonest.
Do you know that Reinhart was never going to be an NHL player?
Obviously Chiarelli way overpaid but many on here believed that Reinhart was at least going to be a #5/6 dman.

Marody needs to work on his skating but seems to think the game well and has skills. In a perfect world I would prefer that he went back for his Senior season and then signed with us afterwards. That said since we dealt that pick we almost need to sign him this offseason.

 

[guymez]

Marody needs to work on his skating but seems to think the game well and has skills. In a perfect world I would prefer that he went back for his Senior season and then signed with us afterwards. That said since we dealt that pick we almost need to sign him this offseason.

I dont have enough information to know how NHL ready this player is.
What I like about this deal is that Chiarelli has to try and find value contracts and thats exactly what he is doing here.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I dont have enough information to know how NHL ready this player is.
What I like about this deal is that Chiarelli has to try and find value contracts and thats exactly what he is doing here.

I've only watched youtube highlights (there are only a few) and the 3rd period yesterday so I am hardly an expert on the player. That said his scouting reports spoke of what a good skater he is, I did not see it at all. Typical example of how people parrot something that they hear instead of watching with their own 2 eyes.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

I dont have enough information to know how NHL ready this player is.
What I like about this deal is that Chiarelli has to try and find value contracts and thats exactly what he is doing here.

My problem with it is we'll likely see real NHL players traded for a similar return at/near the Draft. Given the choice between Marody and someone like Vatrano- who, I know, is a rat, but is averaging 0.5 PPG in Florida- I take the pro every time. Chiarelli is just bad at negotiating, as we've seen again and again.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

My problem with it is we'll likely see real NHL players traded for a similar return at/near the Draft. Given the choice between Marony and someone like Vatrano- who, I know, is a rat, but is averaging 0.5 PPG in Florida- I take the pro every time. Chiarelli is just bad at negotiating, as we've seen again and again.

That was my initial take on the trade as well. Unless you REALLY feel like you gave a diamond in the rough here, I'd take a chance on an Aberg type over a guy that hasn't played pro hockey yet. Hopefully he makes both of us look like fools and we got a 2nd line talent for a 3rd.

 

[guymez]

My problem with it is we'll likely see real NHL players traded for a similar return at/near the Draft. Given the choice between Marody and someone like Vatrano- who, I know, is a rat, but is averaging 0.5 PPG in Florida- I take the pro every time. Chiarelli is just bad at negotiating, as we've seen again and again.

I am not so sure about this. A 3rd round pick is not that valuable. When you have 2 players like Conner and Leon signed to massive deals I think you have top take risks on players.
I just dont see why a 3rd round pick is an issue in this situation.

I am not just going to jump on the 'hate everything Chiarelli does' bandwagon.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

I am not so sure about this. A 3rd round pick is not that valuable.

I didn't use Vatrano's name casually- he was literally traded for a 3rd. Aberg was essentially moved for a 4th. They're not world-beaters, no, but I'd rather take a chance on players of that ilk than a college junior with zero history at the pro level.

When you have 2 players like Conner and Leon signed to massive deals I think you have top take risks on players.
I just dont see why a 3rd round pick is an issue in this situation.

If anything, unearthing guys who can play TODAY is even more important with McDavid and Drai. Again, that's why Aberg has been such a nice surprise. That's a possible top six winger for $650K. Marody, meanwhile, is coming nowhere near this team's top six next year.

I am not just going to jump on the 'hate everything Chiarelli does' bandwagon.

It's more the "Eye everything Chiarelli does critically" bandwagon, because that's all he's earned. If you think otherwise, that's an argument for a different thread.

 

[guymez]

I didn't use Vatrano's name casually- he was literally traded for a 3rd. Aberg was essentially moved for a 4th. They're not world-beaters, no, but I'd rather take a chance on players of that ilk than a college junior with zero history at the pro level.

I guess what I am really suggesting here is that Vatrano may well be the exception and no the rule.

If anything, unearthing guys who can play TODAY is even more important with McDavid and Drai. Again, that's why Aberg has been such a nice surprise. That's a possible top six winger for $650K. Marody, meanwhile, is coming nowhere near this team's top six next year.

Thats true but the point is that a 3rd rounder produces a top 6 player less than 10% of the time. So using a top 6 player as a benchmark makes little to no sense.

It's more the "Eye everything Chiarelli does critically" bandwagon, because that's all he's earned. If you think otherwise, that's an argument for a different thread.

There is a difference between being a skeptic and a cynic. Not suggesting that you are a being a cynic but the vast majority on here are.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I guess what I am really suggesting here is that Vatrano may well be the exception and no the rule.



Thats true but the point is that a 3rd rounder produces a top 6 player less than 10% of the time. So using a top 6 player as a benchmark makes little to no sense.



There is a difference between being a skeptic and a cynic. Not suggesting that you are a being a cynic but the vast majority on here are.

for me here is my crazy math when it comes to draft picks

1st--1st liners
2nd-2nd liners
3rd -3rd liner
4th- 4th liners
anything else is up to pure development

so is he is a top 6 guy that is bonus---if he is a third line that would be okay

if he does not sign with us and walks for nothing--that would not be okay

 

[Del Preston]

Michigan is playing in about ten minutes.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

for me here is my crazy math when it comes to draft picks

1st--1st liners
2nd-2nd liners
3rd -3rd liner
4th- 4th liners
anything else is up to pure development

so is he is a top 6 guy that is bonus---if he is a third line that would be okay

if he does not sign with us and walks for nothing--that would not be okay

a 3rd rounder works out like 8% of the time?

 

[guymez]

for me here is my crazy math when it comes to draft picks

1st--1st liners
2nd-2nd liners
3rd -3rd liner
4th- 4th liners
anything else is up to pure development

so is he is a top 6 guy that is bonus---if he is a third line that would be okay

if he does not sign with us and walks for nothing--that would not be okay

Well...I think you are a little off track with your projections.

Here is a link (one of many) that I use occasionally for a gauge on the value of a draft position.
Scroll down to the bottom of the article for data...

Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Value - Article - TSN

 

[Jumptheshark]

a 3rd rounder works out like 8% of the time?

how do you define works out?

2012 Entry draft

17/30 have played in the nhl
13/30 have played 50+ games so far Jujhair is at 87 games played-- has he worked out?

2011
21/30 made it to the nhl 10/30 on current nhl rosters--that is 33% of the 3rd rounders from 2011 are on nhl rosters and almost all are 3rd liners

 

[Jumptheshark]

Well...I think you are a little off track with your projections.

Here is a link (one of many) that I use occasionally for a gauge on the value of a draft position.
Scroll down to the bottom of the article for data...

Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Value - Article - TSN

look at my next post where I point out 33% of the 3rd rounders taken in 2011 are on nhl teams and most are 3rd liners

 

[guymez]

look at my next post where I point out 33% of the 3rd rounders taken in 2011 are on nhl teams and most are 3rd liners

Actually approx 32% of high 3rd rounders (62-70) even play 100 total NHL games. It gets worse if the player was taken later in the 3rd round (less than 25%).

So I am very skeptical of your results.
I would like to see a breakdown of your stats to validate you conclusion.

 

[Jumptheshark]

2010 was a bad year for 3rd rounders

only 6 out of 30 played 100+ games that is still 20%


2009 8/30 played 100+ games 26%

2008 9/30 200+ games 30%

So my question is-- how do you define "works"?

100 games
200 games
300 games
500 games

 

[Jumptheshark]

Actually approx 32% of high 3rd rounders (62-70) even play 100 total NHL games. It gets worse if the player was taken later in the 3rd round (less than 25%).

So I am very skeptical of your results.
I would like to see a breakdown of your stats to validate you conclusion.

from one year

Round 3
Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Last Season
3	62	NY Islanders	Anders Nilsson	G	Lulea Jrs. (Sweden)	104	0	2	2	6	2017-18
3	63	Pittsburgh	Ben Hanowski	R	Little Falls H.S. (Minn.)	16	1	2	3	2	2013-14
3	64	Colorado	Tyson Barrie	D	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]	399	59	184	243	127	2017-18
3	65	Montreal	Joonas Nattinen	C	Blues Jrs. (Finland)	1	0	0	0	0	2013-14
3	66	Buffalo	Brayden McNabb	D	Kootenay Ice [WHL]	307	11	53	64	269	2017-18
3	67	Florida	Josh Birkholz	R	Fargo Force [USHL]
3	68	Toronto	Jamie Devane	L	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	2	0	0	0	0	2013-14
3	69	Dallas	Reilly Smith	R	St. Michael's Buzzers [OJHL]	431	98	149	247	114	2017-18
3	70	Nashville	Taylor Beck	R	Guelph Storm [OHL]	92	11	12	23	32	2016-17
3	71	Edmonton	Troy Hesketh	D	Minnetonka H.S. (Minn.)
3	72	Nashville	Michael Latta	C	Guelph Storm [OHL]	113	4	13	17	130	2015-16
3	73	New Jersey	Alexander Urbom	D	Djurgardens IF Stockholm [SEL]	34	3	1	4	28	2013-14
3	74	Calgary	Ryan Howse	L	Chilliwack Bruins [WHL]
3	75	Detroit	Andrej Nestrasil	R	Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]	128	17	31	48	18	2016-17
3	76	Anaheim	Igor Bobkov	G	Magnitogorsk Jr. (Russia)
3	77	Minnesota	Matt Hackett	G	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	26	0	0	0	0	2014-15
3	78	St. Louis	Sergei Andronov	L	Tolyatti Lada [KHL]
3	79	Montreal	Mac Bennett	D	Hotchkiss School (Conn.)
3	80	NY Rangers	Ryan Bourque	L	U.S. National Under-18 Team [Ind]	1	0	0	0	0	2014-15
3	81	Philadelphia	Adam Morrison	G	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
3	82	Edmonton	Cameron Abney	R	Everett Silvertips [WHL]
3	83	Vancouver	Kevin Connauton	D	Western Michigan University [CCHA]	254	22	40	62	155	2017-18
3	84	Los Angeles	Nicolas Deslauriers	L	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]	263	20	22	42	235	2017-18
3	85	Washington	Cody Eakin	C	Swift Current Broncos [WHL]	453	75	104	179	208	2017-18
3	86	Boston	Ryan Button	D	Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
3	87	Philadelphia	Simon Bertilsson	D	Brynas IF Gavle [SEL]
3	88	Carolina	Mattias Lindstrom	L	Skelleftea Jrs. (Sweden)
3	89	Chicago	Daniel Delisle	L	Totino Grace H.S. (Minn.)
3	90	Detroit	Gleason Fournier	D	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
3	91	Phoenix	Mike Lee	G	Fargo Force [USHL]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

current NHLers
Anders Nilsson G
Tyson Barrie D
Brayden McNabb D
Reilly Smith FW
Kevin Connauton
Nicolas Deslauriers
Cody Eakin

not included on that list are 3 players who have played 100+ games but are no longer on the nhl rosters

7 players there currently in the NHL making 7/30 or 23%

for me that is working out--that is based upon games played-- 3rd liners overall are not point getters--traditionally they have been the checking or energy line--so using pts in this case is a little misleading

 

[Jumptheshark]

2010 3rd rounders

d 3
Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Last Season
3	61	Edmonton	Ryan Martindale	C	Ottawa 67's [OHL]
3	62	Toronto	Greg McKegg	C	Erie Otters [OHL]	91	7	6	13	32	2017-18
3	63	Tampa Bay	Brock Beukeboom	D	Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]
3	64	Calgary	Max Reinhart	C	Kootenay Ice [WHL]	23	1	4	5	6	2014-15
3	65	NY Islanders	Kirill Kabanov	L	Moncton Wildcats [QMJHL]
3	66	Tampa Bay	Radko Gudas	D	Everett Silvertips [WHL]	332	20	63	83	512	2017-18
3	67	Carolina	Danny Biega	D	Harvard University [ECAC]	10	0	2	2	0	2014-15
3	68	Buffalo	Jerome Leduc	D	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]
3	69	Florida	Joe Basaraba	W	Shattuck St. Mary's [Minn.]
3	70	Los Angeles	Jordan Weal	C	Regina Pats [WHL]	101	15	14	29	24	2017-18
3	71	Colorado	Michael Bournival	L	Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]	113	12	10	22	24	2017-18
3	72	Tampa Bay	Adam Janosik	D	Gatineau Olympiques [QMJHL]
3	73	Calgary	Joey Leach	D	Kootenay Ice [WHL]
3	74	St. Louis	Max Gardiner	F	Minnetonka H.S. [Minn.]
3	75	Buffalo	Kevin Sundher	C	Chilliwack Bruins [WHL]
3	76	Ottawa	Jakub Culek	L	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
3	77	Dallas	Alexander Guptill	C	Orangeville Crushers [OJHL]
3	78	Nashville	Taylor Aronson	D	Portland Winterhawks [WHL]
3	79	Toronto	Sondre Olden	R	Modo Jr. [Sweden]
3	80	Pittsburgh	Bryan Rust	R	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	174	32	46	78	46	2017-18
3	81	Detroit	Louis-Marc Aubry	C	Montreal Juniors [QMJHL]
3	82	NY Islanders	Jason Clark	F	Shattuck St. Mary's [Minn.]
3	83	Buffalo	Matt Mackenzie	D	Calgary Hitmen [WHL]
3	84	New Jersey	Scott Wedgewood	G	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	24	0	0	0	2	2017-18
3	85	Carolina	Austin Levi	D	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]
3	86	Washington	Stanislav Galiev	L	Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]	26	1	3	4	4	2015-16
3	87	Atlanta	Julian Melchiori	D	Newmarket Hurricanes [OJHL]	30	0	2	2	8	2016-17
3	88	San Jose	Max Gaede	F	Woodbury H.S. [Minn.]
3	89	Philadelphia	Michael Chaput	C	Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL]	135	6	11	17	62	2017-18
3	90	Chicago	Joakim Nordstrom	C	AIK Jr. (Sweden)	276	20	28	48	39	2017-18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

8/30 played in the NHL this year for 26%

 

[Jumptheshark]

2011 3rd rounders

3
Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Last Season
3	62	Edmonton	Samu Perhonen	G	JYP Jrs. (Finland)
3	63	NY Islanders	Andrey Pedan	D	Guelph Storm [OHL]	13	0	0	0	18	2015-16
3	64	Florida	Vincent Trocheck	C	Saginaw Spirit [OHL]	301	90	116	206	167	2017-18
3	65	Anaheim	Joseph Cramarossa	C	Mississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL]	59	4	6	10	60	2016-17
3	66	Columbus	T.J. Tynan	F	Notre Dame [CCHA]	3	0	0	0	0	2016-17
3	67	Winnipeg	Adam Lowry	C	Swift Current Broncos [WHL]	274	41	43	84	157	2017-18
3	68	Philadelphia	Nick Cousins	C	Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]	171	24	21	45	66	2017-18
3	70	Chicago	Michael Paliotta	D	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	2	0	1	1	4	2015-16
3	71	Vancouver	David Honzik	G	Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]
3	72	NY Rangers	Steven Fogarty	C	Edina H.S. (Minn.)
3	73	Carolina	Keegan Lowe	D	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]	2	0	0	0	10	2014-15
3	74	Edmonton	Travis Ewanyk	C	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]
3	75	New Jersey	Blake Coleman	F	Indiana Ice [USHL]	95	12	11	23	77	2017-18
3	76	Florida	Logan Shaw	C	Cape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL]	174	12	18	30	33	2017-18
3	77	Buffalo	Daniel Catenacci	C	Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]	12	0	0	0	0	2017-18
3	78	Winnipeg	Brennan Serville	D	Stouffville Spirit [OJHL]
3	79	Chicago	Klas Dahlbeck	D	Linkopings HC [SEL]	163	5	15	20	85	2017-18
3	80	Los Angeles	Andy Andreoff	L	Oshawa Generals [OHL]	158	13	11	24	214	2017-18
3	81	Boston	Anthony Camara	L	Saginaw Spirit [OHL]
3	82	Los Angeles	Nick Shore	C	U. of Denver [WCHA]	230	14	36	50	74	2017-18
3	83	Anaheim	Andy Welinski	D	Green Bay Gamblers [USHL]	4	0	2	2	0	2017-18
3	84	Phoenix	Harrison Ruopp	D	Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
3	85	Detroit	Alan Quine	C	Peterborough Petes [OHL]	84	6	16	22	12	2017-18
3	86	Toronto	Joshua Leivo	L	Sudbury Wolves [OHL]	57	10	12	22	20	2017-18
3	87	Florida	Jonathan Racine	D	Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]	1	0	0	0	2	2013-14
3	88	St. Louis	Jordan Binnington	G	Owen Sound Attack [OHL]	1	0	0	0	0	2015-16
3	89	San Jose	Justin Sefton	D	Sudbury Wolves [OHL]
3	90	Vancouver	Alexandre Grenier	R	Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]	9	0	0	0	2	2016-17
3	91	Florida	Kyle Rau	L	Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL]	36	2	2	4	6	2017-18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

13/30 have played in the NHL this year for 43%

 

[Del Preston]

Marody has an assist so far today. 2-1 Michigan in the first period.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Well in my view we can look at this trade from 2 perspectives...

A) Would the Oilers have chosen a better prospect if they kept that 3rd and chosen a player at let's say ~75th (basically mid round in next year's draft)? Looking at the type of players available at ~75th this year and comparing them to Marody at that age plus with how Marody has developed since drafted I think it's safe to say that Marody is a better bet than having to wait likely 3-5 years from now to see that 3rd in 2019 "maybe" pan out at the NHL level. So I think it's likely a pretty clear win from that perspective when you just look at it from a (mostly) developed prospect now vs (undeveloped) prospect next year basis.

B) 2nd perspective though as some have pointed out is that the Oilers use that 3rd as the basis for trading for an established NHL dman/forward... ie another Aberg (or better) type of talent.
I think most here would prefer option B if it meant getting a "project" forward at the NHL level but who knows what's available out there. I would prefer a player at the NHL level as well because they've at least proven they can play somewhat at this level. A Duclair/Aberg/Leivo etc type player at least has a track record and while you know they are projects, they have those years of development under them and at least to some degree have shown they are capable at this level.