Considering the cap, what exactly in your opinion is the Jets "cup window"?

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Kamiccolo, Nov 1, 2018.

View Users: View Users
  1. Kamiccolo

    Kamiccolo Proud Leafs and Hurricanes fan

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2011
    Messages:
    15,488
    Likes Received:
    4,091
    Trophy Points:
    167
    Occupation:
    Network Engineer
    Location:
    Your parents bedroom
    I don't think there is any debate the Jets have an outstanding team right now even if the start to the year hasn't been as organized as they finished last year (but this will improve). Stacked offense, very strong defense core, a goalie who has shown he can play at a very high level over a full season.

    However, it appears that this year might be their last chance to "do it". Of course it is always possible they come out of no where like the Caps did when everyone thought they were done after their all in year in 2017 playoffs OR like the Sharks did when they went on a deep run after many (including me)said they were too old and done. However purely based on projections

    Assuming that their ELC players do not hit any bonuses and the cap goes up about 3M, they have about 25M to sign the following (also using very rough numbers giving benefit of the doubt here)

    Laine
    Connor
    Tanev
    Petan
    Trouba
    Myers
    Brossoit (who has been outstanding early on)
    various depth pieces

    While that seems like a high number, it really isn't consider this is the most optimistic scenario of no bonus' being carried over and the quality of the players up for a new deal.

    Now of course it is impossible to project what these guys are going to make, but we have at least an idea (again, I will use floors here or comparibles)

    Laine - Two 40 goal years on his ELC even if he has a bad year. Dreger reported his initial ask was 11M however let's say he takes 8M for a hometown discount.

    Connor - Hard to say here but I think it is fair to say he will use Ehlers / Nylander as his floor. At least 6 million here

    Trouba - Likely he gets traded but unless it is for full futures there will be cap coming back, and either way that is a massive loss considering his play so far this year. Let's assume he gets at least 7M if he signs longterm or the pieces they get back equal about 4M in cap.

    Just with three main pieces signed to best case scenario deals, the Jets will have 4 - 7 million to sign

    - Several bottom 6 forwards
    - A top 4 RD
    - depth D
    - backup goalie

    Even if we assume they replace all of these guys internally, it's unlikely prospects are going to be able to replace all this depth right away (especially potentially if Trouba is dealt they will have two top 4 D to replace with this money).

    So it is extremely likely the team takes a step back next season (as many of the teams top players such as Wheeler, Little, Buff, etc start declining more and more with age).

    But Kamiccolo, can't they just bridge these guys and go for it now?

    Of course they can, but they are also assuming that

    A) A bridge deal gives significant savings (for example, Laine has two 40 goal seasons, he isn't getting less than 6 on a bridge)

    B) They will be in a better position in 2 - 3 years to retain these players

    Even so, a bridge might extend the window but it just compacts this issue 2 years down the line. Let's not forget Morrissey (who has been awesome and many fans believe is their best D) signed a bridge deal and will need a significant raise after that which will exceed any amount the cap goes up.

    TL;DR

    Given all of this information we have about their future cap, how long of a window do they have? Based on what I have written here, my projection is 1-3 years depending on bridging some guys. However it is clear, this is their win now year for the foreseeable future.

    What do you guys think? Am I being too doom and gloom? Am I missing something that might help them out a ton with this cap? And how do we feel about the Salary cap dismantling really good teams in this era? I feel like it is destroying some really good hockey.
     
  2. JoeThorntonsRooster

    JoeThorntonsRooster There is no anti-Leafs bias on HFBoards

    Joined:
    May 14, 2012
    Messages:
    18,298
    Likes Received:
    5,511
    Trophy Points:
    167
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    College Student
    Location:
    Fremont, CA
    As much as you want it to, the salary cap will not shut the Jets’ Cup window any time soon.
     
  3. Kamiccolo

    Kamiccolo Proud Leafs and Hurricanes fan

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2011
    Messages:
    15,488
    Likes Received:
    4,091
    Trophy Points:
    167
    Occupation:
    Network Engineer
    Location:
    Your parents bedroom
    *Sigh* can we not. Just address the thread topic or move on please.
     
  4. HavocWreaker

    HavocWreaker Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2015
    Messages:
    6,342
    Likes Received:
    776
    Trophy Points:
    94
    I don't think its any better or worse than the leafs, very comparable in fact. Good teams and gms make it work. Chevy is a good gm its all gonna work out.
     
  5. Kamiccolo

    Kamiccolo Proud Leafs and Hurricanes fan

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2011
    Messages:
    15,488
    Likes Received:
    4,091
    Trophy Points:
    167
    Occupation:
    Network Engineer
    Location:
    Your parents bedroom
    This is not a Leaf thread. If you want to discuss that it has been done to death. Yes I am aware I cheer for a team in a tight spot as well. This is a thread about the JETS.
     
  6. rynryn

    rynryn Reluctant Optimist

    Joined:
    May 29, 2008
    Messages:
    28,698
    Likes Received:
    620
    Trophy Points:
    203
    Occupation:
    secret
    Location:
    Minny
    i don't believe in cup windows. Jets should be contenders for years and years with just the occasional tweak needed.
     
    WPGNYRFan likes this.
  7. HavocWreaker

    HavocWreaker Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2015
    Messages:
    6,342
    Likes Received:
    776
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Never said it was a leafs thread but their situation is awfully similar, anybody could draw the paralells and similarities between the two. Just because I brought a certain team up doesn't make it about them. However, you complaining about it just made it so, how ironic.
     
    bryson21 and amethyst like this.
  8. Salmonsnake

    Salmonsnake Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2016
    Messages:
    2,820
    Likes Received:
    404
    Trophy Points:
    79
    Location:
    People's Republic of California
    I don't think there's such. One Stastny level center away being a cup favorite.
     
  9. Flair Hay

    Flair Hay Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2010
    Messages:
    9,119
    Likes Received:
    706
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Making airplanes
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    As long as they have their core signed of Scheifele Wheeler Laine Connor Ehlers Byfuglien Morrissey Hellebuyck they will be in the mix. Ideally we could include Trouba there too.

    Overall they are still a pretty young team. They should be able to survive Wheeler and Little getting old by their 3 young wingers and Roslovic getting better with experience. Niku seems like a lock as a 2nd pair guy at this point so they can offset losing Myers pretty easily.

    Their very best chance may have been last year for all we know. ELC first liners are insanely valuable and we had 4. But if you have a good core you can still win by bringing in cheaper bottom six forwards and second pair D.

    Sorry to say for bro but I dont think we are going away after this year.
     
  10. gtrower

    gtrower Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2016
    Messages:
    407
    Likes Received:
    355
    Trophy Points:
    59
    After what the Caps did last year, I’ve really changed my definition of Cup Window. Where as it used to mean (for me) the number of seasons you could go before losing a few key cogs to the cap, it now means the number of years you can keep an elite core together. And the majority of that is attaining an elite core in the first place.

    The Jets have that so salary cap won’t shorten their window. They’ll have to shuffle around, but the core will still be good enough to consistently make the playoffs and support a deep run.

    Injuries, aging, or idiotic GMing are the only things that can shorten that kind of window.
     
    Flair Hay and Kamiccolo like this.
  11. Mulletman

    Mulletman Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,928
    Likes Received:
    676
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Well from the looks of it Winnipeg has gone all in on trying to sandbag Laine this season in hopes of getting a chance to sign him for less. Right there they'll save a few million. If they get in trouble they can always trade Ehlers for picks and prospects as he's not as good as he's hyped up to be.
     
    Flair Hay likes this.
  12. Sam Spade

    Sam Spade Registered User Sponsor

    Joined:
    May 4, 2009
    Messages:
    18,855
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Maryland
    They are set for a while. One thing though, if this is the Ehlers they will be getting now that he has his money, damn. He is quite non-existent, and has been for a while.
     
  13. Slyfox

    Slyfox Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2016
    Messages:
    1,254
    Likes Received:
    596
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    Toronto
    They can always move out Kulikov by adding some assets to him. That frees up $4.33 million which will easily allow them to solve all their cap problems.
     
    LeafGrief and Kamiccolo like this.
  14. GirardSpinorama

    GirardSpinorama Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2004
    Messages:
    11,257
    Likes Received:
    461
    Trophy Points:
    154
    Depends mostly on Laine’s growth.
     
  15. almostawake

    almostawake Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2006
    Messages:
    4,590
    Likes Received:
    348
    Trophy Points:
    125
    Location:
    Lausanne
    Yes, one big issue with the calculation is that it assumes Kulikov will be back. Unless he really steps up his game I don't think he'll be back next year. If they could find a trade, great. But I think they'd even consider buying him out.

    A more general point is if the Jets can hit on guys like Roslovic and Vesalainen (i.e. top 6 production on ELC) and keep doing so going forward, I don't think there will be such a strict window for the Jets.
     
    Kamiccolo likes this.
  16. MordredGK

    MordredGK it is a silly place

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2012
    Messages:
    11,831
    Likes Received:
    3,080
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Occupation:
    Knight
    Location:
    Britanniae
    Hopefully Fleury can keep throwing rocks through their window.
     
  17. Scrantonicity 2

    Scrantonicity 2 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2016
    Messages:
    977
    Likes Received:
    760
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Are the Jets good enough to have a cup window?
     
    HydroF likes this.
  18. abax44

    abax44 Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    928
    Likes Received:
    88
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    Laine has gone all in on trying to sandbag Laine.
     
    Joe Strummer likes this.
  19. Gary 23

    Gary 23 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2017
    Messages:
    795
    Likes Received:
    448
    Trophy Points:
    49
    Gender:
    Male
    You can’t really predict what the cap would do. But the Jets are still on the upswing. They’ll get even better the next couple of more years. Should be a contender for at least the next 10 years. (If they keep it together)
     
  20. GoJetsGo55

    GoJetsGo55 Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2009
    Messages:
    8,476
    Likes Received:
    2,888
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Location:
    Winnipeg, MB
    Oh boy! Grab a chair because I want to tell you all about the 2017-18 playoffs.
     
  21. Kamiccolo

    Kamiccolo Proud Leafs and Hurricanes fan

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2011
    Messages:
    15,488
    Likes Received:
    4,091
    Trophy Points:
    167
    Occupation:
    Network Engineer
    Location:
    Your parents bedroom
    I don't think you'll find many who think they aren't in one . Last year they could have won it all and i wouldn't have been shocked. They just need to get going but it's a long season and they will.
     
    WPGNYRFan likes this.
  22. GoJetsGo55

    GoJetsGo55 Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2009
    Messages:
    8,476
    Likes Received:
    2,888
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Location:
    Winnipeg, MB
    As for the OP, we will have a few issues and a few questions but it's nothing that letting Myers walk and trading Perreault can't fix.

    The good part about our drafting is that we have the depth to let certain "high price" players walk.

    Laine @ 9
    Connor @ 7.5
    Trouba - Trade or @ 7.5
    Morrissey @ 6 to 7.5

    Those are the key pieces. Biggest one after that is Lowry.

    Tanev
    Petan
    Myers
    and Brossoit can be replaced.

    Do love me some Tanev though. I think we will be able to give him similar money with additional years.
     
  23. GoJetsGo55

    GoJetsGo55 Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2009
    Messages:
    8,476
    Likes Received:
    2,888
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Location:
    Winnipeg, MB
    That's just his schtick.
     
  24. Filthy Dangles

    Filthy Dangles Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2014
    Messages:
    11,576
    Likes Received:
    8,587
    Trophy Points:
    151
    You're overthinking it. They are fine...
     
    WetcoastOrca likes this.
  25. WetcoastOrca

    WetcoastOrca Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    21,540
    Likes Received:
    1,630
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Location:
    Vancouver, BC
    I read the thread title and expected that it had been started by a certain fanbase.
    Looks like I wasn’t disappointed.
    :laugh:

    In any event the Jets window looks like it will be open for quite a while. And their strong drafting should help keep it open longer.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2018
    amethyst likes this.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"