Kamiccolo
Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
I don't think there is any debate the Jets have an outstanding team right now even if the start to the year hasn't been as organized as they finished last year (but this will improve). Stacked offense, very strong defense core, a goalie who has shown he can play at a very high level over a full season.
However, it appears that this year might be their last chance to "do it". Of course it is always possible they come out of no where like the Caps did when everyone thought they were done after their all in year in 2017 playoffs OR like the Sharks did when they went on a deep run after many (including me)said they were too old and done. However purely based on projections
Assuming that their ELC players do not hit any bonuses and the cap goes up about 3M, they have about 25M to sign the following (also using very rough numbers giving benefit of the doubt here)
Laine
Connor
Tanev
Petan
Trouba
Myers
Brossoit (who has been outstanding early on)
various depth pieces
While that seems like a high number, it really isn't consider this is the most optimistic scenario of no bonus' being carried over and the quality of the players up for a new deal.
Now of course it is impossible to project what these guys are going to make, but we have at least an idea (again, I will use floors here or comparibles)
Laine - Two 40 goal years on his ELC even if he has a bad year. Dreger reported his initial ask was 11M however let's say he takes 8M for a hometown discount.
Connor - Hard to say here but I think it is fair to say he will use Ehlers / Nylander as his floor. At least 6 million here
Trouba - Likely he gets traded but unless it is for full futures there will be cap coming back, and either way that is a massive loss considering his play so far this year. Let's assume he gets at least 7M if he signs longterm or the pieces they get back equal about 4M in cap.
Just with three main pieces signed to best case scenario deals, the Jets will have 4 - 7 million to sign
- Several bottom 6 forwards
- A top 4 RD
- depth D
- backup goalie
Even if we assume they replace all of these guys internally, it's unlikely prospects are going to be able to replace all this depth right away (especially potentially if Trouba is dealt they will have two top 4 D to replace with this money).
So it is extremely likely the team takes a step back next season (as many of the teams top players such as Wheeler, Little, Buff, etc start declining more and more with age).
But Kamiccolo, can't they just bridge these guys and go for it now?
Of course they can, but they are also assuming that
A) A bridge deal gives significant savings (for example, Laine has two 40 goal seasons, he isn't getting less than 6 on a bridge)
B) They will be in a better position in 2 - 3 years to retain these players
Even so, a bridge might extend the window but it just compacts this issue 2 years down the line. Let's not forget Morrissey (who has been awesome and many fans believe is their best D) signed a bridge deal and will need a significant raise after that which will exceed any amount the cap goes up.
TL;DR
Given all of this information we have about their future cap, how long of a window do they have? Based on what I have written here, my projection is 1-3 years depending on bridging some guys. However it is clear, this is their win now year for the foreseeable future.
What do you guys think? Am I being too doom and gloom? Am I missing something that might help them out a ton with this cap? And how do we feel about the Salary cap dismantling really good teams in this era? I feel like it is destroying some really good hockey.
However, it appears that this year might be their last chance to "do it". Of course it is always possible they come out of no where like the Caps did when everyone thought they were done after their all in year in 2017 playoffs OR like the Sharks did when they went on a deep run after many (including me)said they were too old and done. However purely based on projections
Assuming that their ELC players do not hit any bonuses and the cap goes up about 3M, they have about 25M to sign the following (also using very rough numbers giving benefit of the doubt here)
Laine
Connor
Tanev
Petan
Trouba
Myers
Brossoit (who has been outstanding early on)
various depth pieces
While that seems like a high number, it really isn't consider this is the most optimistic scenario of no bonus' being carried over and the quality of the players up for a new deal.
Now of course it is impossible to project what these guys are going to make, but we have at least an idea (again, I will use floors here or comparibles)
Laine - Two 40 goal years on his ELC even if he has a bad year. Dreger reported his initial ask was 11M however let's say he takes 8M for a hometown discount.
Connor - Hard to say here but I think it is fair to say he will use Ehlers / Nylander as his floor. At least 6 million here
Trouba - Likely he gets traded but unless it is for full futures there will be cap coming back, and either way that is a massive loss considering his play so far this year. Let's assume he gets at least 7M if he signs longterm or the pieces they get back equal about 4M in cap.
Just with three main pieces signed to best case scenario deals, the Jets will have 4 - 7 million to sign
- Several bottom 6 forwards
- A top 4 RD
- depth D
- backup goalie
Even if we assume they replace all of these guys internally, it's unlikely prospects are going to be able to replace all this depth right away (especially potentially if Trouba is dealt they will have two top 4 D to replace with this money).
So it is extremely likely the team takes a step back next season (as many of the teams top players such as Wheeler, Little, Buff, etc start declining more and more with age).
But Kamiccolo, can't they just bridge these guys and go for it now?
Of course they can, but they are also assuming that
A) A bridge deal gives significant savings (for example, Laine has two 40 goal seasons, he isn't getting less than 6 on a bridge)
B) They will be in a better position in 2 - 3 years to retain these players
Even so, a bridge might extend the window but it just compacts this issue 2 years down the line. Let's not forget Morrissey (who has been awesome and many fans believe is their best D) signed a bridge deal and will need a significant raise after that which will exceed any amount the cap goes up.
TL;DR
Given all of this information we have about their future cap, how long of a window do they have? Based on what I have written here, my projection is 1-3 years depending on bridging some guys. However it is clear, this is their win now year for the foreseeable future.
What do you guys think? Am I being too doom and gloom? Am I missing something that might help them out a ton with this cap? And how do we feel about the Salary cap dismantling really good teams in this era? I feel like it is destroying some really good hockey.
