Considering the cap, what exactly in your opinion is the Jets "cup window"?

TheKingPin

Registered User
Nov 16, 2005
20,494
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Philadelphia, PA
They still have a window open for a long time but it seems like a lot of players get their big deal after their cup win. Doubt that happens here.
 

rubikscube

Registered User
Oct 27, 2017
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Weinerpeg
worst case ontario perreault and kulikov both get sent to other teams for picks and the machine keeps humming with dead line acquisitions in their place.

Honestly I think the cup window is mostly dependent on the NHLs human x-factor: dustin byfuglien.

Once buff hits the wall in 3ish I think the we'll take a step back. In the meantime it's full steam ahead
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
I don't think there is any debate the Jets have an outstanding team right now even if the start to the year hasn't been as organized as they finished last year (but this will improve). Stacked offense, very strong defense core, a goalie who has shown he can play at a very high level over a full season.

However, it appears that this year might be their last chance to "do it". Of course it is always possible they come out of no where like the Caps did when everyone thought they were done after their all in year in 2017 playoffs OR like the Sharks did when they went on a deep run after many (including me)said they were too old and done. However purely based on projections

Assuming that their ELC players do not hit any bonuses and the cap goes up about 3M, they have about 25M to sign the following (also using very rough numbers giving benefit of the doubt here)

Laine
Connor
Tanev
Petan
Trouba
Myers
Brossoit (who has been outstanding early on)
various depth pieces

While that seems like a high number, it really isn't consider this is the most optimistic scenario of no bonus' being carried over and the quality of the players up for a new deal.

Now of course it is impossible to project what these guys are going to make, but we have at least an idea (again, I will use floors here or comparibles)

Laine - Two 40 goal years on his ELC even if he has a bad year. Dreger reported his initial ask was 11M however let's say he takes 8M for a hometown discount.

Connor - Hard to say here but I think it is fair to say he will use Ehlers / Nylander as his floor. At least 6 million here

Trouba - Likely he gets traded but unless it is for full futures there will be cap coming back, and either way that is a massive loss considering his play so far this year. Let's assume he gets at least 7M if he signs longterm or the pieces they get back equal about 4M in cap.

Just with three main pieces signed to best case scenario deals, the Jets will have 4 - 7 million to sign

- Several bottom 6 forwards
- A top 4 RD
- depth D
- backup goalie

Even if we assume they replace all of these guys internally, it's unlikely prospects are going to be able to replace all this depth right away (especially potentially if Trouba is dealt they will have two top 4 D to replace with this money).

So it is extremely likely the team takes a step back next season (as many of the teams top players such as Wheeler, Little, Buff, etc start declining more and more with age).

But Kamiccolo, can't they just bridge these guys and go for it now?

Of course they can, but they are also assuming that

A) A bridge deal gives significant savings (for example, Laine has two 40 goal seasons, he isn't getting less than 6 on a bridge)

B) They will be in a better position in 2 - 3 years to retain these players

Even so, a bridge might extend the window but it just compacts this issue 2 years down the line. Let's not forget Morrissey (who has been awesome and many fans believe is their best D) signed a bridge deal and will need a significant raise after that which will exceed any amount the cap goes up.

TL;DR

Given all of this information we have about their future cap, how long of a window do they have? Based on what I have written here, my projection is 1-3 years depending on bridging some guys. However it is clear, this is their win now year for the foreseeable future.

What do you guys think? Am I being too doom and gloom? Am I missing something that might help them out a ton with this cap? And how do we feel about the Salary cap dismantling really good teams in this era? I feel like it is destroying some really good hockey.
Jets can easily fit their entire core if they let Myers go and replace Perreault and Kulikov with cheaper replacements. That includes keeping Trouba.

That's due to the great contracts for Scheifele and Ehlers.

So, they keep a core of...

Scheifele
Wheeler
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Little
Lowry
Roslovic
Copp

Trouba
Morrissey
Byfuglien
Niku
Poolman

Hellebuyck

They have some outstanding young talent to fill in the forwards in Vesalainen, Petan, Appleton, etc.
 

biturbo19

Registered User
Jul 13, 2010
25,152
10,131
Having their #1C on a long-term steal of a deal will go a long ways to softening the blow of getting some of these guys signed under the cap as they come off their own ELCs. They may have to do some retooling and make a few tough decisions as they continue to have guys age out of their ELCs, but they've also still got some good young players coming along. The biggest thing is going to be whether or not they can continue to produce such unusually strong results in the draft...that's what'll really be the biggest difference-maker in their "window".
 

jetsforever

Registered User
Dec 14, 2013
27,201
23,056
Well Scheifele, Wheeler, and Little are all UFAs in 2024 so I guess that's a potential place where things could change.
 

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