Prospect Info: Connor Carrick

[Caesium]

And nobody here will give much weight to your opinion. Hm wonder who I should trust, a guy random guy on a board, or an advanced statistic that has proven over the years to be one of the best (there are more that add to the greatness of a player/team) measurements that is more able to predict the outcome of the game from prior stats.

Name me the best 20 hockey players on the planet and justify it using only corsi.

 

[Morgs]

Name me the best 20 hockey players on the planet and justify it using only corsi.

You can't do that. As I stated about Corsi: "[it is an] advanced statistic that has proven over the years to be one of the best (there are more that add to the greatness of a player/team) measurements that is more able to predict the outcome of the game from prior stats."

What it does is it shows whether or not someone is a liability on the ice, or whether or not they are highly effective at what they do.

Take Matt Hunwick, is he effective? No the eye test, and the advanced stat test prove he's not.

Take Shea Weber, is he effective? Yes and no. The eye test for the most part says yes, and the fact he's got other things going for him; intimidation, shot blocking(which is both good and bad), hard slap shot, good first pass. The problem with him? His team has the puck less when he's on the ice, and he's forced to do things like block shots, and throw hits because he most likely won't have the puck.

Now take someone like Erik Karlsson. Some people think during the eye test he fails in the defensive zone. The reason for this is because the only times that he gets stuck there it ends up being bad news and it sticks out for people. He possesses the puck so often, and he doesn't have to play defense it makes him the best defenseman in the leauge. It's the same thing as Connor Carrick and Jake Gardiner. These two almost never actually have to play defense because when they're on the ice the puck is on a Leaf players stick and no shots are being directed towards our net. When they're actually in the defensive zone they don't look overally good, but they're great at keeping it out of the zone, and making sure shots aren't directed at our net.

I used to not believe in these stats either, but they're easily the best way to figure out (for the most part) who's a better player than who.

 

[Caesium]

Name me the best 20 hockey players on the planet and justify it using only corsi.

You can't do that

I used to not believe in these stats either, but they're easily the best way to figure out (for the most part) who's a better player than who.

So which is it?

 

[zeke]

Name me the best 20 hockey players on the planet and justify it using only corsi.

Corsi is a much better evaluator of teams than individuals - very hard to seperate individual contributions out from the team they play on.

That being said....

Top 20 CF% playerssince 2007-08, minimum 6000 minutes played

1. Datsyuk
2. Bergeron
3. Williams
4. Lidstrom
5. Kopitar
6. Thornton
7. Toews
8. Zetterberg
9. Kunitz
10. Pavelski
11. Doughty
12. Chara
13. Elias
14. Keith
15. Hossa
16. Jagr
17. Sharp
18. Lucic
19. Boychuk
20. Vlasic
21. D.Sedin
22. Demeers
23. Crosby
24. Kesler
25. Backstrom


Not a bad list.

 

[Caesium]

Corsi is a much better evaluator of teams than individuals - very hard to seperate individual contributions out from the team they play on.

So why are you in this thread using it to judge individual players?

And, you heard it here first folks, Justin Williams is better at hockey than Sidney Crosby.

 

[WilliamNylander]

So why are you in this thread using it to judge individual players?

And, you heard it here first folks, Justin Williams is better at hockey than Sidney Crosby.

Well he did say "very hard to seperate individual contributions out from the team they play on."

Better suited to compare players playing on the same team

IE: Carrick vs Hunwick

 

[zeke]

So why are you in this thread using it to judge individual players?
.

que?

you said this:

This team has massive defensive problems. Corsi AKA "possession" is a glorified shot count and I don't give it much weight. It certainly doesn't measure defensive coverage.

you were talking about the team's performance, not an individual.

 

[zeke]

And, you heard it here first folks, Justin Williams is better at hockey than Sidney Crosby.

No stat is perfect, no scout is perfect.

But yeah, there's a good case to be made that Justin Williams - one of the leading scorers on 3 cup winning teams over 2 franchises - is one of the most underrated players of his generation.

 

[LoneWolf]

Carrick needs to be paired with a real defender like Zaitzev because he is too much of a defensive liability and lacks foot speed a la TJ Brennan. I honestly hope he gets traded or picked up by Las Vegas.

 

[Mitchy]

People who hate on corsi and other stats, most of the time simply don't understand them. Corsi against is just shot suppression. Shot suppression = good. Most scoring chances stats are based on shot quality, which considers shot location and type of shot among other things. Again, why anyone would hate that, I don't know. More information is always good.

 

[The Examiner]

Carrick needs to be paired with a real defender like Zaitzev because he is too much of a defensive liability and lacks foot speed a la TJ Brennan. I honestly hope he gets traded or picked up by Las Vegas.

Funny enough, while not perfect, I think he did an admirable job in covering for the defensive tire fire that is TJ Brennan, in last year's AHL playoffs.

 

[zeke]

Carrick needs to be paired with a real defender like Zaitzev because he is too much of a defensive liability and lacks foot speed a la TJ Brennan. I honestly hope he gets traded or picked up by Las Vegas.

Carrick has been much better defensively than zaitsev.

Zaitsev's poor defense is actually a legit concern.

 

[Gramsci]

Didn't Shanahan fire all the scouts who didn't believe in statistics?

 

[smitty10]

No stat is perfect, no scout is perfect.

But yeah, there's a good case to be made that Justin Williams - one of the leading scorers on 3 cup winning teams over 2 franchises - is one of the most underrated players of his generation.

No he isn't. He's a second line player that has happened to play on great teams. He's good, not great and nothing more than a complimentary player.

 

[bobermay]

Carrick has been much better defensively than zaitsev.

Zaitsev's poor defense is actually a legit concern.

We must be watching different games...

 

[thewave]

We must be watching different games...

Numbers may suggest that but to the eye, I trust Zaitsev more.

 

[RootinTootinPookin*]

Corsi and Advanced stats in here getting wrecked.

Exposed!

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Numbers may suggest that but to the eye, I trust Zaitsev more.

Zaitsev is the most realiable defenseman we have around the net. He's a beast in one-on-one battles as well.

The problem with his possession numbers is that he isn't the type of defenseman that can act as a fourth forward. In the NHL today, smooth-skating puck rushers essentially define the game more than Leech/Lidstrom/Pronger-styled puck movers. Think Karlsson, Subban, etc.

 

[hotpaws]

Didn't Shanahan fire all the scouts who didn't believe in statistics?

Nope.

Shanny left it up to Hunter on who stayed and who got let go.

 

[sxvnert]

Certainly has to improve defensively but that leaves a gaping hole at the #4 spot if he drops down.

1/2/3 - Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev
4 - Marincin on RD
5/6/7/8 - Carrick, Polak, Hunwick, Corrado (Polak, Hunwick, Corrado should never be a part of the top four)

Rielly Zaitsev
Gardiner Marincin
Polak/Hunwick Carrick

 

[lebdafor norris]

Score/Zone/Venue Adjusted

Corsi Against /60 Relative

1. Carrick -12.9
2. Gardiner -5.9
3. Marincin -1.4
4. Rielly +3.5
5. Hunwick +4.2
6. Zaitsev +6.2
7. Polak +10.4

Fenwick Against /60 Relative

1. Carrick -8.4
2. Gardiner -3.8
3. Hunwick -1.3
4. Marincin +1.2
5. Zaitsev +1.7
6. Rielly +5.8
7. Polak +6.7

Shots Against /60 Relative

1. Carrick -3.7
2. Polak -1.6
3. Hunwick -0.9
4. Marincin -0.9
5. Gardiner +1.1
6. Rielly +1.9
7. Zaitsev +3.4

Scoring Chances Against /60 Relative

1. Polak -2.8
2. Carrick -2.6
3. Marincin -1.4
4. Rielly -1.2
5. Gardiner -0.4
6. Hunwick +3.2
7. Zaitsev +3.8



Carrick has most likely been our best defensive defenseman so far - by a good margin.

Yea but what is his xtruculence60? Apparently this is the only stat that matters when evaluating how good a defenceman is at playing "defence".

 

[Nithoniniel]

So which is it?

They are the best measurement, that's because all measurements are far from enough on their own, but at least possession metrics give you an approximate.

Sure, there'll be quite a few things that don't look right, but the same and worse can be said about any one kind of measurement.

The issue I have with people using the defensive part of possession metrics is that it's most of all a measurement of transition ability, not their defensive ability per se. But that just highlight how important transition ability is. As is so often pointed out, you can't score if you don't have the puck.

People who hate on corsi and other stats, most of the time simply don't understand them. Corsi against is just shot suppression. Shot suppression = good. Most scoring chances stats are based on shot quality, which considers shot location and type of shot among other things. Again, why anyone would hate that, I don't know. More information is always good.

Absolutely. I often say the bolded myself. Problem is that people often mistake the information itself for what it infers. Most common mistake done by people using a lot of advanced stats is the ecological inference fallacy, that what's true for a population is true for each individual.

 

[Gramsci]

Nope.

Shanny left it up to Hunter on who stayed and who got let go.

Nah, Shanahan did his scouting purge over a year before he hired Hunter.

Link: https://www.thestar.com/sports/leaf...-fire-gm-dave-nonis-coach-peter-horachek.html

Steve Kasper was a vociferous opponent of statistics. As the head of pro scouting he was involved in a series of truly awful pro acquisitions. Things have been looking up on the pro scouting side ever since he was dumped.

Carrick is the kind of player the Leafs never would have targeted in the past. You can be sure it took some statistical acumen to help identify him.

 

[SprDaVE]

Corsi and Advanced stats in here getting wrecked.

Exposed!

I think ignorance is what is getting exposed here rather than a very useful tool (or different tools) to evaluate players. I'm not trying to out anybody in particular, but your comment is really childish.

Reminds me when there was a time people actually belittled players for wearing helmets.

If you don't understand the concept and purpose of using statistics to evaluate players, that's fine, but don't attempt to ridicule it when you don't understand it. Try to understand, open your mind and at least try to take in what it's useful for. I'll be honest, I don't understand all of it. Some of it is a little confusing and not overly clear. But I try and I think I got the basics down.

We're in 2016. Not 1976. Wake up.

 

[hotpaws]

Nah, Shanahan did his scouting purge over a year before he hired Hunter.

Link: https://www.thestar.com/sports/leaf...-fire-gm-dave-nonis-coach-peter-horachek.html

Steve Kasper was a vociferous opponent of statistics. As the head of pro scouting he was involved in a series of truly awful pro acquisitions. Things have been looking up on the pro scouting side ever since he was dumped.

Carrick is the kind of player the Leafs never would have targeted in the past. You can be sure it took some statistical acumen to help identify him.

Hunter joined the Leafs Oct 2014 , Nonis and the scouts were fired Apr 2015 .