Player Discussion Connor Brown (C) - Update: Signs 3 year, $10.8M deal

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Perhaps, but MacArthur was a bit higher skill imo.

Mac had more skill and a better offensive IQ I think, but Brownie's forechecking and motor are both so good. Not that Mac was a slouch on either front.

 

[BankStreetParade]

This guy deserves better linemates. Nick Paul is a 4th liner who gets the benefit of "chemistry" keeping him paired up with C. Brown and Brady won't be on his line when Batherson and Norris are back. Get this guy some players who can play offensively with him so we don't waste his best years. He sets up Paul every game for A+++ chances and Paul hasn't done shit with them all year. He just turned 27 and probably has 2-5 more super productive seasons before he starts his decline. We need to take advantage, especially at his cap hit. Will make the difference in how good this team is.

 

[Xspyrit]

This guy deserves better linemates. Nick Paul is a 4th liner who gets the benefit of "chemistry" keeping him paired up with C. Brown and Brady won't be on his line when Batherson and Norris are back. Get this guy some players who can play offensively with him so we don't waste his best years. He sets up Paul every game for A+++ chances and Paul hasn't done shit with them all year. He just turned 27 and probably has 2-5 more super productive seasons before he starts his decline. We need to take advantage, especially at his cap hit. Will make the difference in how good this team is.

Formenton - Pinto - Brown

could be that Elite 3rd line that actually gives us a big advantage in games.

 

[Silencio]

This thread might need a new title, I keep thinking Brown has signed a new deal every time I see it.

 

[Xspyrit]

This thread might need a new title, I keep thinking Brown has signed a new deal every time I see it.

This, however he can't before July 1st

I'm really hoping we will have Connor Brown, Nick Paul and Artem Zub for several more years to surround the young core. They are solid vets now.

 

[GCK]

This, however he can't before July 1st

I'm really hoping we will have Connor Brown, Nick Paul and Artem Zub for several more years to surround the young core. They are solid vets now.

I can’t see how all 3 fit salary wise. That’s easily 13.5-14.5M of AAV

 

[SensFactor]

Nick Paul is the odd man out IMO. Unless he take team friendly deal.

 

[ATdaisuki]

This thread might need a new title, I keep thinking Brown has signed a new deal every time I see it.

Oh, he is.

He's racking up the years. Get used to seeing him because he's going to be on the Sens for a loooooong time now because of this thread. At least it's nice to find a player that loves this city this much.

 

[playasRus]

Nick Paul is the odd man out IMO. Unless he take team friendly deal.

Would've been great to have at least 1 or even 2M from that White contract to retain both.

Essentially Brown should be making White money and White should be making Paul money in terms of team impact and output, instead of draft pedigree.

 

[GCK]

Would've been great to have at least 1 or even 2M from that White contract to retain both.

Essentially Brown should be making White money and White should be making Paul money in terms of team impact and output, instead of draft pedigree.

My prediction on a Brown contract is 5.5M x 7 years. Obviously not here.

 

[Xspyrit]

I can’t see how all 3 fit salary wise. That’s easily 13.5-14.5M of AAV

Hopefully none of them are super greedy but by now I hope the Sens know what they are looking for, especially Paul. If he wants over 3.0, might have to just trade him.

Nick Paul 2.75 x 4 years
Connor Brown 5.0 x 5 years
Artem Zub 4.75 x 5 years

I really wish Tkachuk wasn't a Tkachuk and would have taken a million less but whatever

The thing is we have money coming off the books every year. And don't forget that the NHL salary cap will start rising again in the near future... But in the end, it will come down to the owner being willing to spend to the cap. Pretty hard to be a contender year after year if you don't

I have looked closely at the Sens situation and it's going to be perfectly manageable.

Tierney, Sanford, Josh Brown, Del Zotto, Zaitsev, Murray, White

That'll free up a lot of money during the next 3 years

We don't have to go long term on every RFA. We'll see for each but could bridge some. Example : Colin White SHOULD have been bridged (but context didn't really allow because we needed to sign Chabot long term after that crazy firesale)


Where we might get in trouble is if a few more guys BOOM more than expected. In that case, good problem to have as we'll have too much quality so we make trades to feed the pipeline, which should allow a longer contending period. A good GM can certainly do that

 

[Alex1234]

We absolutely need C Brown and Zub ....they are too important to this team
Paul can be replaced anytime

 

[GCK]

Hopefully none of them are super greedy but by now I hope the Sens know what they are looking for, especially Paul. If he wants over 3.0, might have to just trade him.

Nick Paul 2.75 x 4 years
Connor Brown 5.0 x 5 years
Artem Zub 4.75 x 5 years

I really wish Tkachuk wasn't a Tkachuk and would have taken a million less but whatever

The thing is we have money coming off the books every year. And don't forget that the NHL salary cap will start rising again in the near future... But in the end, it will come down to the owner being willing to spend to the cap. Pretty hard to be a contender year after year if you don't

I have looked closely at the Sens situation and it's going to be perfectly manageable.

Tierney, Sanford, Josh Brown, Del Zotto, Zaitsev, Murray, White

That'll free up a lot of money during the next 3 years

We don't have to go long term on every RFA. We'll see for each but could bridge some. Example : Colin White SHOULD have been bridged (but context didn't really allow because we needed to sign Chabot long term after that crazy firesale)


Where we might get in trouble is if a few more guys BOOM more than expected. In that case, good problem to have as we'll have to much quality and we'll have to make trades which should allow a longer contending period. A good GM can certainly do that

You might get Paul for that but Brown and Zub are quite low vs what they could get on the open market.

 

[playasRus]

Hopefully none of them are super greedy but by now I hope the Sens know what they are looking for, especially Paul. If he wants over 3.0, might have to just trade him.

Nick Paul 2.75 x 4 years
Connor Brown 5.0 x 5 years
Artem Zub 4.75 x 5 years

I really wish Tkachuk wasn't a Tkachuk and would have taken a million less but whatever

The thing is we have money coming off the books every year. And don't forget that the NHL salary cap will start rising again in the near future... But in the end, it will come down to the owner being willing to spend to the cap. Pretty hard to be a contender year after year if you don't

I have looked closely at the Sens situation and it's going to be perfectly manageable.

Tierney, Sanford, Josh Brown, Del Zotto, Zaitsev, Murray, White

That'll free up a lot of money during the next 3 years

We don't have to go long term on every RFA. We'll see for each but could bridge some. Example : Colin White SHOULD have been bridged (but context didn't really allow because we needed to sign Chabot long term after that crazy firesale)


Where we might get in trouble is if a few more guys BOOM more than expected. In that case, good problem to have as we'll have to much quality and we'll have to make trades which should allow a longer contending period. A good GM can certainly do that

Just let them boom and dry up all 5-6 of their RFA years before offloading them if they're actual legit top 6 F top 4 D, unlike trying to get a quick ROI like we did with Zib. Go the JGP route. Bridge bridge bridge until we realize they're playing above a level were able to afford and get back some good assets.

So for Formy, 2 years low cap. Reassess, then if anything 2-3 years and reassess again. We have the luxury of having out core already in Norris/Bath/Stu/Tkachuk. If in their prime we need to trade Formenton hopefully Greig and/or Boucher/other 1st/2nd_ rounders are contributing on their trail ELC/bridge by then.

 

[Sweatred]

Would've been great to have at least 1 or even 2M from that White contract to retain both.

Essentially Brown should be making White money and White should be making Paul money in terms of team impact and output, instead of draft pedigree.

Exactly -

 

[Sweatred]

Just let them boom and dry up all 5-6 of their RFA years before offloading them if they're actual legit top 6 F top 4 D, unlike trying to get a quick ROI like we did with Zib. Go the JGP route. Bridge bridge bridge until we realize they're playing above a level were able to afford and get back some good assets.

So for Formy, 2 years low cap. Reassess, then if anything 2-3 years and reassess again. We have the luxury of having out core already in Norris/Bath/Stu/Tkachuk. If in their prime we need to trade Formenton hopefully Greig and/or Boucher/other 1st/2nd_ rounders are contributing on their trail ELC/bridge by then.

This feels like their plan - I think we see it soon with the first bridges - it’s just a matter of who gets bridged … Formy ? Maybe Norris ? Brann etc.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Would've been great to have at least 1 or even 2M from that White contract to retain both.

Essentially Brown should be making White money and White should be making Paul money in terms of team impact and output, instead of draft pedigree.

How can you even have a current opinion of a guy you haven't seen play in almost a full year? There's no way to accurately measure his impact on the team without any recent viewings. Without looking online, could you even name his most common linemates from last season?

 

[GCK]

This feels like their plan - I think we see it soon with the first bridges - it’s just a matter of who gets bridged … Formy ? Maybe Norris ? Brann etc.

Norris is with Oster so I assume they would push for a bridge. The Sens may think bridge is the way to go now with another shoulder injury.

 

[Sweatred]

How can you even have a current opinion of a guy you haven't seen play in almost a full year? There's no way to accurately measure his impact on the team without any recent viewings. Without looking online, could you even name his most common linemates from last season?

Probably because he knows how he played each of the last 3 years ???

We are paying him $15.75 for the next 3 year that can’t get allocated to another player if we decide to keep him. He hasn’t been any more valuable than a Sanford/ Ennis type replacement player these past three years - it’s an easy way to free up cash for more reliable players.

 

[Xspyrit]

You might get Paul for that but Brown and Zub are quite low vs what they could get on the open market.

If they want to drain every dollar possible (a bit like Brady did), then yeah they're gone.

At the same time, I don't think Zub is worth that much more in terms of AAV. I mean, look at that for example :

Christopher Tanev Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

As for Brown, yes he could get Hyman money. Danault was considered "overpaid" at 5.5 and he's a Selke level center. Pageau got 5.0. Great 2-way players don't make as much as elite ones (ex : Mark Stone, etc) so IMO Brown is at the level of these players I have named. Unless he reduces the term, I can't see him getting over 5.5 AAV so that's why I am hopeful he takes 5.0 AAV to stay in Ottawa

If he asks 6.0+ AAV, he's gone

Just let them boom and dry up all 5-6 of their RFA years before offloading them if they're actual legit top 6 F top 4 D, unlike trying to get a quick ROI like we did with Zib. Go the JGP route. Bridge bridge bridge until we realize they're playing above a level were able to afford and get back some good assets.

So for Formy, 2 years low cap. Reassess, then if anything 2-3 years and reassess again. We have the luxury of having out core already in Norris/Bath/Stu/Tkachuk. If in their prime we need to trade Formenton hopefully Greig and/or Boucher/other 1st/2nd_ rounders are contributing on their trail ELC/bridge by then.

Absolutely and you need a very good GM with foresight to manage this carefully. At some point, you need to be able to project players into the future. Their floor, their peak, their longevity, their health (of course non one has control on this but some players are built more "solid" and/or are less "injury prone"), their potential decline, etc. I'm not saying it's super easy but that's why NHL GM is an Elite executive job.

You need to do that with players like Hoffman and Dzingel for example and also why you always need some good players to emerge from your pool. You need an Alex Formenton to replace a Dzingel that you trade without missing a beat (or almost)

So basically, there's some players that you will want to keep their whole career, some that you will want to keep their whole 20's, some that you will want to trade by the 26/27 age... etc

Personally I see it as a dual core for forwards.

Main core : Batherson, Stutzle, Norris, Tkachuk (two PPG forwards and two 30 goals scorers?)
Support core : C. Brown, Formenton, N. Paul (need to be great 2-way players with some versatility)

For Greig and Pinto, we're not sure yet which core they'll belong to, we'll see. For many other guys, they'll fight to prove their worth and if they should be part of these groups. We have pretty much all our main guys, maybe there'll be another spot available. A high profile stop gap (like Giroux) would be very nice too

 

[BankStreetParade]

Probably because he knows how he played each of the last 3 years ???

We are paying him $15.75 for the next 3 year that can’t get allocated to another player if we decide to keep him. He hasn’t been any more valuable than a Sanford/ Ennis type replacement player these past three years - it’s an easy way to free up cash for more reliable players.

The bolded is your unsupported opinion. Feel free to show your work though and I don't mean mindlessly simple +/- stats or whatever. The ball has always been in your court to prove the assertions you make, yet you've never presented a coherent argument in support of your outlandish claims. Now's your time.
Anyway, trade Zaitsev and allocate his money to White instead, problem solved. White's a FAR better player than Zaitsev.

 

[Sweatred]

The bolded is your unsupported opinion. Feel free to show your work though and I don't mean mindlessly simple +/- stats or whatever. The ball has always been in your court to prove the assertions you make, yet you've never presented a coherent argument in support of your outlandish claims. Now's your time.
Anyway, trade Zaitsev and allocate his money to White instead, problem solved. White's a FAR better player than Zaitsev.

Im not getting into a White debate here. I couldn’t care less if you think he is worth $5 million. I don’t.

The money should be spent on Brown or Bath types.

 

[aragorn]

This guy deserves better linemates. Nick Paul is a 4th liner who gets the benefit of "chemistry" keeping him paired up with C. Brown and Brady won't be on his line when Batherson and Norris are back. Get this guy some players who can play offensively with him so we don't waste his best years. He sets up Paul every game for A+++ chances and Paul hasn't done shit with them all year. He just turned 27 and probably has 2-5 more super productive seasons before he starts his decline. We need to take advantage, especially at his cap hit. Will make the difference in how good this team is.

While Xspyrit has provided one possibility of a pretty good 3rd line my guess is if they haven't brought in someone better why wouldn't they go back to a line that was quite successful before the injuries set in.

Stutzle - Pinto - C. Brown

This pushes Formenton to a 3rd line with White or Paul depending on what happens with Paul. And they could fill the 3rd line RW spot with Sokolov until a better option comes along like potentially Boucher or a trade.

Formenton - Pinto - Brown

could be that Elite 3rd line that actually gives us a big advantage in games.

The only problem I have with this line is that once Batherson & Norris return it's quite likely that they will be put back together given their past success. That leaves Stutzle looking for linemates & IMO the next best forwards on this team are C. Brown, Pinto, Formenton & Paul in that order.

I imagine they will need to make a decision next yr as to where best to place Pinto & Stutzle & whether that is together or on different lines. The other decision would be whether to break up that 1st line & create three good lines with those 7 or 8 good players & fine a 9th. Fiala at RW would allow them to move C, Brown to the 3rd line or promoting Sokolov to the 3rd line RW would also solve this, it's a good problem to have & solve.

Formenton - Stutzle - C. Brown - probably works & could be a good line
Stutzle - Pinto - C. Brown - IMO the next 3 best forwards on the team

Should we care whether Stutzle plays LW or C if it helps the team be successful?

There are so many possible options with these guys & even more when we start including some of the guys coming that should make this future roster. Fiala is really starting to make the most sense IMO given his age & consistent production ability. Would 540 pts as a whole be enough pts to make this team a playoff team?

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson - 150 pt production
Stutzle - Pinto - Fiala - 120 pt production
Formenton - White - C. Brown - 90 pt production
Paul - Kastelic - Sokolov - 60 pt production = 420 pts

Chabot - Thomson - 60 pt production
Sanderson - Zub - 40 pt production
Holden - Brannstrom/Zaitsev - 20 pt production = 120 pts

 

[BankStreetParade]

Im not getting into a White debate here. I couldn’t care less if you think he is worth $5 million. I don’t.

The money should be spent on Brown or Bath types.

Injects himself into a discussion he wasn't a part of, is asked to substantiate his position...decides he's not interested in a debate. Oh and feel free to pick this up in the Colin White thread, I'm sure you have mountains of data and points to support your wild, unfounded conclusions.

 

[GCK]

If they want to drain every dollar possible (a bit like Brady did), then yeah they're gone.

At the same time, I don't think Zub is worth that much more in terms of AAV. I mean, look at that for example :

Christopher Tanev Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

As for Brown, yes he could get Hyman money. Danault was considered "overpaid" at 5.5 and he's a Selke level center. Pageau got 5.0. Great 2-way players don't make as much as elite ones (ex : Mark Stone, etc) so IMO Brown is at the level of these players I have named. Unless he reduces the term, I can't see him getting over 5.5 AAV so that's why I am hopeful he takes 5.0 AAV to stay in Ottawa

If he asks 6.0+ AAV, he's gone

I looked at Tanev as a comparable but dropped him due to age, lower offensive output and an injury history which shows he misses about 20 games a year on average. That's how I landed on Pelech and Lindell.

I like the way you broke down Brown. Essentially it comes down to whether he sees himself as a 2nd line or 3rd line player and also how the org sees him. The market on 3rd liners has skyrocketed in the last couple years, Pageau actually seems like a good deal now. Look at Blake Coleman, Goodrow (4th liner) and Hyman. Edmonton is paying Hyman as a 2nd line player and his historical production matches Brown. I think it's hard to ask Brown to take a discount on a team with massive cap space, it's different when a team is against the cap.
If we re-sign Brown for what he's worth then I think we have to accept him as our defacto 2nd line RW which I am okay with. It's all about where you allocate your dollars.