Collapse of the PAC-12: Oregon State & Washington State left in the dust

KevFu

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In the case of the SWC, only one non-Texas school was in the conference prior to the early 90s. Once that school left, its national appeal was forever killed.

Once the TV rights thing escaped pandora's box, the SWC was going to split up. It was inevitable. They all knew it, too.

The lack of national appeal wasn't BECAUSE Arkansas left; but the conference just wasn't diverse enough, or competitive enough for a national audience.

The only reason Arkansas left first was because from a PR standpoint, Arkansas HAD to leave first. and the Texas AD told the Arkansas AD that in an infamous round of golf.
 

PCSPounder

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And in the irony of how all this realignment has very, very little to do with actual sports...

After Week 1 of college football, the Pac-12 is 13-0 and every other conference has at least two losses.
And the Pac will still miss out on the playoff because we’ll beat the crap out of each other like usual.

But I do think EVERY Pac-12 school has at least a little extra added angst this year. Some more than others, of course… I went to a WCL baseball game in Corvallis the day after that Black Friday and the tension was palpable.
 
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PCSPounder

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I fully expect the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC to learn from mistakes made when both the WAC and Big East expanded to 16.
No, the b12 won’t.

Or can’t. That conference currently exists to keep a loudmouth commissioner paid, and possibly to move one particular school to the P2. Or vice versa. They’re using numbers to survive while another conference dies, and has said as much. They’ve now added enough reluctant schools in a wide swath of the country without having an anchor/big brand that they’ll either seal their fate, or become a weirdly contented non-power conference.
 

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The haves stay the haves by having have nots to play.

You can't have a conference of just OSU, MICH, PSU, MSU, & WIS.
But if the media doesn’t want to pay for the have-nots anymore, then what?

And keep watching OSU & WSU’s plight in this, because I’m taking bids now, and they are an indicator species, so to speak. There are people on the Boise State board who think those two schools will raise the conference over $10M per. KevFu just bid “as much as the AAC.” And I’m saying “lucky to get Boise State’s number. I don’t think media even has cash on hand to contemplate raises at this point, and that’s why I get the strong feeling the next media move is to stop paying have-nots.
 
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Spydey629

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But if the media doesn’t want to pay for the have-nots anymore, then what?

And keep watching OSU & WSU’s plight in this, because I’m taking bids now, and they are an indicator species, so to speak. There are people on the Boise State board who think those two schools will raise the conference over $10M per. KevFu just bid “as much as the AAC.” And I’m saying “lucky to get Boise State’s number. I don’t think media even has cash on hand to contemplate raises at this point, and that’s why I get the strong feeling the next media move is to stop paying have-nots.

The next phase of this is the Super League. It will be nothing but the haves. There won't be any Vandys; Northwesterns; Mizzous; Oregon States; or Boston Colleges to worry about.

It will be somewhere between 24 to 40 of the true name brand blue bloods. No NCAA. No conferences, other than divisions for scheduling. Forget the "Power-2", it will just be the Power Brands, without the little guys.
 

Big Z Man 1990

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No, the b12 won’t.

Or can’t. That conference currently exists to keep a loudmouth commissioner paid, and possibly to move one particular school to the P2. Or vice versa. They’re using numbers to survive while another conference dies, and has said as much. They’ve now added enough reluctant schools in a wide swath of the country without having an anchor/big brand that they’ll either seal their fate, or become a weirdly contented non-power conference.
The Big 12's 16 schools can easily be sorted into four regional pods for crafting a 7-game conference schedule in football and keeping an 18-game schedule in basketball.

These pods are:

Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Utah
Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati, Iowa State, UCF, West Virginia
Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State

In football, each school would play their in-pod rivals every year and rotate among each of the other pods on a six-year schedule to ensure every Big 12 football game occurs at least twice (once hosted by each school) over a six-year period.

In basketball, each team would play their in-pod rivals twice (home-and-home) and everyone else once (alternating home court every year for 6 each home and road games) to make up the 18-game conference schedule.

BYU, TCU, and Utah were part of the WAC when they tried the pod scheduling system. The WAC botched it horribly, leading to the formation of the MWC in 1999. The WAC doing the the pod system the way I suggest the Big 12 do it might have ensured their survival as an FBS conference to this day, although they wouldn't have been able to do a conference championship game at that time since it then required 12 teams or more split into two divisions (the WAC had 2 8-team divisions).
 
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IU Hawks fan

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But if the media doesn’t want to pay for the have-nots anymore, then what?

The next phase of this is the Super League. It will be nothing but the haves. There won't be any Vandys; Northwesterns; Mizzous; Oregon States; or Boston Colleges to worry about.

It will be somewhere between 24 to 40 of the true name brand blue bloods. No NCAA. No conferences, other than divisions for scheduling. Forget the "Power-2", it will just be the Power Brands, without the little guys.

I feel like there's a lot of misunderstanding of the very present future of the TV business going on here.

ESPN/SECN & FS1/BTN are eventually going direct to consumer. You think they want to cut out entire fanbases from potentially subscribing? ORST & WASH ST are tiny fanbases, so they don't care about them, but they're not going to cut out half the Big Ten or SEC. These are major markets: Chicago, Indy, Twin Cities, St. Louis, Nashville, etc etc.

While football is obviously the main driver of everything, men's basketball is still a ton of content and the Big Ten will still desire being a power conference, so no way are they booting Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland...

As for the Super League, I've always seen this as happening de facto, rather than de jure. There's no infrastructure for an actual new league. Who is running this? Are schools going to abandon the Big Ten & SEC, with their ties to FOX or ESPN? Feels almost impossible and could see there being big time legal ramifications, as schools who are under contract would need to work behind their existing network's backs to get this set up.
 
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DaveG

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I feel like there's a lot of misunderstanding of the very present future of the TV business going on here.

ESPN/SECN & FS1/BTN are eventually going direct to consumer. You think they want to cut out entire fanbases from potentially subscribing? ORST & WASH ST are tiny fanbases, so they don't care about them, but they're not going to cut out half the Big Ten or SEC. These are major markets: Chicago, Indy, Twin Cities, St. Louis, Nashville, etc etc.

While football is obviously the main driver of everything, men's basketball is still a ton of content and the Big Ten will still desire being a power conference, so no way are they booting Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland...

As for the Super League, I've always seen this as happening de facto, rather than de jure. There's no infrastructure for an actual new league. Who is running this? Are schools going to abandon the Big Ten & SEC, with their ties to FOX or ESPN? Feels almost impossible and could see there being big time legal ramifications, as schools who are under contract would need to work behind their existing network's backs to get this set up.
I think this was always going to be the case. The only question that's left is if the B1G/SEC throw a bone to the Big 12 to avoid an anti-trust situation here long-term. Something like the B1G and SEC getting 4 guaranteed slots for the playoff expansion to 16, the Big 12 getting 2 guaranteed slots, and the G5 getting 2. Then the 4 wild cards, which will almost certainly play out to be significantly made up of B1G/SEC as long as it's done by the selection committee and media rather than a BCS computer model type system, will be the last 4 slots. Sure, some years the Big 12 will get a 3rd team into the playoff if there's say 3-4 10-2 teams in the conference, but for the most part it will be the 9-3 SEC/B1G type teams.
 

Spydey629

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I feel like there's a lot of misunderstanding of the very present future of the TV business going on here.

ESPN/SECN & FS1/BTN are eventually going direct to consumer. You think they want to cut out entire fanbases from potentially subscribing? ORST & WASH ST are tiny fanbases, so they don't care about them, but they're not going to cut out half the Big Ten or SEC. These are major markets: Chicago, Indy, Twin Cities, St. Louis, Nashville, etc etc.

While football is obviously the main driver of everything, men's basketball is still a ton of content and the Big Ten will still desire being a power conference, so no way are they booting Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland...

As for the Super League, I've always seen this as happening de facto, rather than de jure. There's no infrastructure for an actual new league. Who is running this? Are schools going to abandon the Big Ten & SEC, with their ties to FOX or ESPN? Feels almost impossible and could see there being big time legal ramifications, as schools who are under contract would need to work behind their existing network's backs to get this set up.

That’s the thing. I am a total nihilist on this… it’s going to happen, my guess would be in the next 15-20 years. The top football schools will break off to do their own thing, driven by a truckload of money by some media entity (An Apple owned Disney??).

Conferences will continue to exist, simply for every other sport offered. My alma mater (Penn State) will be in the Super League for sure. But Nittany Lion basketball sure as heck is going to need a league to play in, so they can go .500 every year.
 

PCSPounder

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I feel like there's a lot of misunderstanding of the very present future of the TV business going on here.

ESPN/SECN & FS1/BTN are eventually going direct to consumer. You think they want to cut out entire fanbases from potentially subscribing? ORST & WASH ST are tiny fanbases, so they don't care about them, but they're not going to cut out half the Big Ten or SEC. These are major markets: Chicago, Indy, Twin Cities, St. Louis, Nashville, etc etc.

While football is obviously the main driver of everything, men's basketball is still a ton of content and the Big Ten will still desire being a power conference, so no way are they booting Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland...

As for the Super League, I've always seen this as happening de facto, rather than de jure. There's no infrastructure for an actual new league. Who is running this? Are schools going to abandon the Big Ten & SEC, with their ties to FOX or ESPN? Feels almost impossible and could see there being big time legal ramifications, as schools who are under contract would need to work behind their existing network's backs to get this set up.
I agree that it’s de facto. I agree that media evolving is, for the most part, something you figure on happening.

But Fox is fighting itself on DTC; trying to protect their affiliates. They don’t look like they’re preparing for the future. Except they’re being very judicious about who they tell B1G they’ll pay for.

And DTC will expose the lack of depth of the enterprise.
 
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KevFu

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BYU, TCU, and Utah were part of the WAC when they tried the pod scheduling system. The WAC botched it horribly, leading to the formation of the MWC in 1999. The WAC doing the the pod system the way I suggest the Big 12 do it might have ensured their survival as an FBS conference to this day, although they wouldn't have been able to do a conference championship game at that time since it then required 12 teams or more split into two divisions (the WAC had 2 8-team divisions).

I appreciate the meticulous detail you put into your posts about organization of sports, because I'm into that, too. But I think you aren't pragmatic enough about it. They're not making decisions for order and organization, they're making decisions based on money. They're not going to expand to a "number of schools that's easier to worth with," they're going to be the highest-earning conference they can be, even if it's a "highest-earning mess."


The thing that separates this new generation of big conferences from the 16-team WAC is that very principle AND the NCAA rule on divisions that existed then and no longer exists now.


The ACC has had 15 basketball teams for TEN seasons. The logical format is three pods of 5 schools who play each other twice (8 games) and everyone else one game (18 total). And the logical groups are DUKE-UNC-NCST-WAKE + ND; GT & CLEM, FSU & MIA + LOU; VT & UVA, SYR, PITT, BC.

Does the ACC do that? Hell no! Because if they did, Duke and Virginia would play once a year!

They play 20 games so they have more content for their TV network; and they get Duke vs Virginia 10 times in six years. It's messy for money.


The WAC was FORCED to divide the conference into two groups of eight per NCAA rules, and changing the groups every year was the best compromise they could come up with.

What they'd do today is just say "here's your schedule" and have the match-ups that need to happen each year happen, and let frequent match-ups of old WAC rivals happen way more often than playing everyone. San Jose State is gonna have to play Tulsa a couple extra times to accommodate things, and that's just how it goes.
 
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KevFu

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The A-10 has 15 teams, 18-game schedule and pretty solid geographic pods:

West: Saint Louis, Loyola, Dayton, Duquesne, St. Bona
South: Davidson, Richmond, VCU, GW, George Mason
North: St Joe's, La Salle, Fordham, Rhode Island, UMass.

H/A vs group, one vs everyone else = great system.


But the A-10 is trying to get more TV viewers and more NCAA bids, and that's waaaaaay more important than geography or an even matrix...

The best teams in the A-10 over the last decade are Dayton, VCU, Saint Louis, Davidson, Bonaventure and Loyola.

So the schedule pairings for 2023-24 are:

Davidson: Dayton, Richmond, Loyola, Fordham
Dayton: Davidson, Saint Louis, VCU, Duquesne
Loyola: Davidson, Saint Louis, St Joe's, Mason
St. Bona: VCU, Duquesne, Fordham, UMass
St Louis: Dayton, Loyola, VCU, Saint Joe's
VCU: Dayton, St. Louis, St. Bona, Richmond

So those six play each other as much as possible.
 
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Big Z Man 1990

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I appreciate the meticulous detail you put into your posts about organization of sports, because I'm into that, too. But I think you aren't pragmatic enough about it. They're not making decisions for order and organization, they're making decisions based on money. They're not going to expand to a "number of schools that's easier to worth with," they're going to be the highest-earning conference they can be, even if it's a "highest-earning mess."


The thing that separates this new generation of big conferences from the 16-team WAC is that very principle AND the NCAA rule on divisions that existed then and no longer exists now.


The ACC has had 15 basketball teams for TEN seasons. The logical format is three pods of 5 schools who play each other twice (8 games) and everyone else one game (18 total). And the logical groups are DUKE-UNC-NCST-WAKE + ND; GT & CLEM, FSU & MIA + LOU; VT & UVA, SYR, PITT, BC.

Does the ACC do that? Hell no! Because if they did, Duke and Virginia would play once a year!

They play 20 games so they have more content for their TV network; and they get Duke vs Virginia 10 times in six years. It's messy for money.


The WAC was FORCED to divide the conference into two groups of eight per NCAA rules, and changing the groups every year was the best compromise they could come up with.

What they'd do today is just say "here's your schedule" and have the match-ups that need to happen each year happen, and let frequent match-ups of old WAC rivals happen way more often than playing everyone. San Jose State is gonna have to play Tulsa a couple extra times to accommodate things, and that's just how it goes.
Before the Pac-12's collapse was started by UCLA and USC, I proposed a similar scheduling rubric for them in football.

The Pac-12 had three regional pods, each divided further into two geographic pairs:

Arizona/Arizona State, Colorado/Utah
California/Stanford, UCLA/USC
Oregon/Oregon State, Washington/Washington State

The 7-game conference schedule here would have been accomplished by having each team play its pod rivals every year, and one school from each other geographic pair on a four-year schedule, such that each inter-pod game would have occurred twice in a four-year period (once hosted by each team).
 

Big Z Man 1990

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Also, if Oregon State and Washington State want any chance with immediately maintaining a relationship with ESPN upon the Pac-12's demise, they should go independent. If they join the MW, that will keep ESPN from having access to their home games for a few years, barring a sublicensing deal that could also cover road conference games.

As legacy P5 programs they should be able to craft schedules consisting mostly of other P4 teams, especially if the Big 12 and SEC go to 7 conference games and the Big Ten to 8, opening up a significant amount of non-conference slots.

I can probably guess Fox is not pleased at losing access to Cal and Stanford, they were already losing Oklahoma and Texas but this just adds insult to injury.
 
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End of Line

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As legacy P5 programs they should be able to craft schedules consisting mostly of other P4 teams, especially if the Big 12 and SEC go to 7 conference games and the Big Ten to 8, opening up a significant amount of non-conference slots.

I can probably guess Fox is not pleased at losing access to Cal and Stanford, they were already losing Oklahoma and Texas but this just adds insult to injury.

Why would the conferences decrease the amount of conference games while adding schools? That honestly seems Pejorative Slured. The Big Ten will not decrease from 9 and honestly both the SEC, Big 12, and ACC should also play 9 conference games a year as well. But I guess you want every school to play more FCS schools? Hell, Ohio State should be playing Mount Union by your estimation by your previous posts in different threads because it’s an in state university despite being D3 school. Or better yet, making a state law that Ohio St and UC should play every year :eyeroll:

Fox isn’t pleased at losing two irrelevant schools? Like @Dave G said no one gives two shits about Stanford and Cal.
 
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Big Z Man 1990

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Why would the conferences decrease the amount of conference games while adding schools? That honestly seems Pejorative Slured. The Big Ten will not decrease from 9 and honestly both the SEC, Big 12, and ACC should also play 9 conference games a year as well. But I guess you want every school to play more FCS schools? Hell, Ohio State should be playing Mount Union by your estimation by your previous posts in different threads because it’s an in state university despite being D3 school. Or better yet, making a state law that Ohio St and UC should play every year :eyeroll:

Fox isn’t pleased at losing two irrelevant schools? Like @Dave G said no one gives two shits about Stanford and Cal.
I want to see more OOC games between blueblood programs. As well as protect certain rivalries that would otherwise be lost to realignment.

With the Big Ten you can play five protected opponents and three rotating on an eight-year schedule so that players who play for a Big Ten program can see every conference member at least once if they stay the full four years.

The ACC won't go to nine as long as Notre Dame is a factor.

The Big Ten reducing to eight and the ACC staying at eight opens up a slot for California and UCLA to continue their rivalry as an OOC game.

Likewise going to seven in both the Big 12 and SEC makes room for Bedlam without having to sacrifice any existing non-conference games.

The ACC and Big Ten can require their football programs schedule at least two P4 programs OOC each year, while the Big 12 and SEC can require three such games.

And quite frankly I want FBS teams to stop playing FCS teams.
 

mouser

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I can probably guess Fox is not pleased at losing access to Cal and Stanford, they were already losing Oklahoma and Texas but this just adds insult to injury.

Fox has media rights to USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona, Utah and Colorado in their new conferences. Fox even has a deal with the Mountain West where Oregon State and Washington State might end up.

In short, Fox still has rights to the biggest fish from the PAC. There's no reason why they should care about missing out on the smaller fish like Cal and Stanford.
 
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No Fun Shogun

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Caring about not having Stanford's rights is about akin to caring about not having Northwestern's rights when it comes to the money sports that are driving the conversation. Being in a big market doesn't mean that said big market watches.
 
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GKJ

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Also, if Oregon State and Washington State want any chance with immediately maintaining a relationship with ESPN upon the Pac-12's demise, they should go independent. If they join the MW, that will keep ESPN from having access to their home games for a few years, barring a sublicensing deal that could also cover road conference games.

As legacy P5 programs they should be able to craft schedules consisting mostly of other P4 teams, especially if the Big 12 and SEC go to 7 conference games and the Big Ten to 8, opening up a significant amount of non-conference slots.

I can probably guess Fox is not pleased at losing access to Cal and Stanford, they were already losing Oklahoma and Texas but this just adds insult to injury.
If they gave a shit, they would’ve fronted the money like they did for the other schools.
 
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KevFu

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Before the Pac-12's collapse was started by UCLA and USC, I proposed a similar scheduling rubric for them in football.

The 7-game conference schedule here would have been accomplished by having each team play its pod rivals every year, and one school from each other geographic pair on a four-year schedule, such that each inter-pod game would have occurred twice in a four-year period (once hosted by each team).

This is another example of how YOU are looking for Optimization for league configuration based on things like competitive fairness, symmetry, organization and having everything "make sense."

But the reality is, the conferences DGAF about that stuff; playing more conference games means there's a much larger TV audience on their network for "Game 5" of the 12-game season in which the first FOUR are non-conference and last EIGHT are conference.

Because the Pac-12 or P5 schools are bigger than the G5 schools you'd schedule OOC, and therefore have more fans.

USC vs Eastern Washington (OOC); or USC vs Washington (Conf). USC is the same audience (maybe lower than a Pac-12 game because everyone assumes USC will trounce EWU so why tune in?). UW has at least 4x the fans that EWU has.

Your logic and reasoning for why you want to see what you want to see is great, it's just highly unrealistic because the schools/teams don't share your motivations. Their motivations are dollars, not good structure, order and reason.


Why would the conferences decrease the amount of conference games while adding schools? That honestly seems Pejorative Slured. The Big Ten will not decrease from 9 and honestly both the SEC, Big 12, and ACC should also play 9 conference games a year as well. But I guess you want every school to play more FCS schools?

There's A LOT of sanity to playing LESS conference games. This is one of those "counter-intuitive" things, and it really shows itself more in BASKETBALL than football, because of how razor-thin the margins are for basketball teams.

The old rating system of basketball teams (RPI) is based on Win Pct, SOS and opponents SOS, which sounds like "Win games, beat good teams, your number is higher"

That's true if everyone is independent. But the effect conference play has is much larger, because everyone plays 60-75% of their games as conference games.

Every conference WILL go .500 against itself and what the conference does COMBINED OOC is basically what decides what the SOS from conference games is. The more conference games you play, the closer it moves to .500. The Big Boys put up such a huge OOC SOS that the tiny little creep towards .500 is still well above .500 or .600.

The "mid-major" conferences can't compete with that because they don't have 12-16 members all going 9-1 or 8-2 in conference play; so their conference games have less math value each in SOS, and are "weaker."

But one way to "Combat that" is to play LESS CONFERENCE GAMES, so if you win 65% of your OOC games instead of 75% like the Power conference, your Conference Game SOS number creeps from .650 toward .500 less times than power conferences.

Big Ten is 80% OOC win pct, the average Big Ten conference game is 18-12 (.600) on the SOS (20 times).

The A-10 is 65% OOC win pct, the average A-10 team is 17-13 (.556) on the SOS (18 times).

But if the A-10 switches from 18-games to 14-games, there's 4 games each (60 games total) where instead of A-10 going 30-30 against each other, they're going 39-21 against non-conference teams.

Now the average A-10 teams is 17.4 wins vs 12.6 losses (.580 on the SOS).


The reason conferences don't do that is because when selling their TV product, the networks can't guarantee that the extra OOC games are going to be BETTER GAMES than Dayton vs VCU a second time.

But if the goal is to manipulate the math to get NCAA bids, less conference play is smarter.
 

tucker3434

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Also, if Oregon State and Washington State want any chance with immediately maintaining a relationship with ESPN upon the Pac-12's demise, they should go independent. If they join the MW, that will keep ESPN from having access to their home games for a few years, barring a sublicensing deal that could also cover road conference games.

As legacy P5 programs they should be able to craft schedules consisting mostly of other P4 teams, especially if the Big 12 and SEC go to 7 conference games and the Big Ten to 8, opening up a significant amount of non-conference slots.

I can probably guess Fox is not pleased at losing access to Cal and Stanford, they were already losing Oklahoma and Texas but this just adds insult to injury.

Good luck. I know my school’s major OOC schedule is set through 2030 and there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell they drop to 7 conference games. That’s like arguing the NHL’s salary cap should go away. That fight is over. We’re at the baseline. The only question is how high does it go from here.

They just aren’t big enough brands to go independent. It’s too bad they couldn’t catch a ride to the Big12. Neither would be at the bottom of that conference competitively or financially. But at this point, their choices are semi-relevance in a smaller conference or irrelevance. That sucks but it is what it is.
 
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