Value of: Cody Ceci

[Trapper]

It was a tough year for Ceci no doubt. Not that he has ever been great his shot based metrics to date but this season was a worse than the past two and it's not becuase he was expected to be play a bigger role either. He has been asked to carry that 2nd pairing pretty much since his first NHL game. In my eyes he isn't a number #3D and calling him a 3rd pairing guy is harsh. I think he can be a good #4, which he will be slotted to be with the trade for Dion. I guess we will have to wait and see but you can certainly expect those numbers to get better now that he will have more support to his left.

Ceci is a top 4 D with the possibility of more.
Trading him now would be foolish (barring a return from a team that is foolish).
He should be allowed to grow before this is a consideration.

 

[Gavin Ray]

Or confirmation bias. You use the stats to make yourself think your opinion is fact.

Well the people that think that Ceci is a top 4 defenceman don't ever tell me why they think that. They kinda just repeat something along the lines of 'because I actually watch the games and you don't'.

They always mention Ceci's partners not being good, but forget how Ceci was paired with Methot for longer than he was paired with Cowen.

They mention how good he looked in his short stint with Phaneuf, but the two got extremely lucky when it came to save percentage (something like .960sv%) and shooting percentage.

It is what it is.

 

[sens613]

Well the people that think that Ceci is a top 4 defenceman don't ever tell me why they think that. They kinda just repeat something along the lines of 'because I actually watch the games and you don't'.

They always mention Ceci's partners not being good, but forget how Ceci was paired with Methot for longer than he was paired with Cowen.

They mention how good he looked in his short stint with Phaneuf, but the two got extremely lucky when it came to save percentage (something like .960sv%) and shooting percentage.3

It is what it is.

Could that save percentage be that high based on good positioning and not allowing high quality chances?

Phaneuf is a little slow footed and Ceci still has the tendency for his hands to move faster then his Brain so they did get pinned in a few times but I don't recall them losing control of the situation frequently and allowing high percentage shots.

 

[Benjamin]

Well the people that think that Ceci is a top 4 defenceman don't ever tell me why they think that. They kinda just repeat something along the lines of 'because I actually watch the games and you don't'.

They always mention Ceci's partners not being good, but forget how Ceci was paired with Methot for longer than he was paired with Cowen.

They mention how good he looked in his short stint with Phaneuf, but the two got extremely lucky when it came to save percentage (something like .960sv%) and shooting percentage.

It is what it is.

Perhaps your claim and that other posters claim is so ridiculous no one cares to waste their time giving an explanation as to why you are wrong?

 

[Gavin Ray]

Could that save percentage be that high based on good positioning and not allowing high quality chances?

Phaneuf is a little slow footed and Ceci still has the tendency for his hands to move faster then his Brain so they did get pinned in a few times but I don't recall them losing control of the situation frequently and allowing high percentage shots.

No that save percentage is very much so unsustainable. If it was sustainable, they would be the greatest defensive pairing in the league. They weren't a bad pairing, but weren't very good when it came to preventing scoring chances against. I suspect the high save percentage and the few goals they conceded boosted the reputation of both players.

Perhaps your claim and that other posters claim is so ridiculous no one cares to waste their time giving an explanation as to why you are wrong?

Or perhaps they just don't have anything to explain their position. You're comment is a perfect example of what you preach since you clearly cared enough to waste your time commenting, but still didn't provide an explanation.

 

[Benjamin]

Or perhaps they just don't have anything to explain their position. You're comment is a perfect example of what you preach since you clearly cared enough to waste your time commenting, but still didn't provide an explanation.

Oh, im definitely wasting my time responding to you. Just less of it this way. I already know your response if I gave an explanation.

 

[Gavin Ray]

Oh, im definitely wasting my time responding to you. Just less of it this way. I already know your response if I gave an explanation.

I'm genuinely curious as to what your explanation is. Don't disappoint me and say that his partners weren't good, or he had to carry his line or something like that.

 

[MrTylerKennedy*]

I can't wait to bump this thread in five years when Cody Ceci is either out of the NHL or a cheap depth defensemen.

 

[Gavin Ray]

I can't wait to bump this thread in five years when Cody Ceci is either out of the NHL or a cheap depth defensemen.

I think in five years Cody Ceci could very well be a top 4 defenceman. He's still quite young at 22 years old. He already has strong production, but just needs to work on his play in his own zone. For now he isn't a top 4, but he has the potential to be.

 

[MrTylerKennedy*]

I think in five years Cody Ceci could very well be a top 4 defenceman. He's still quite young at 22 years old. He already has strong production, but just needs to work on his play in his own zone. For now he isn't a top 4, but he has the potential to be.

Certainly possible given the age, but I feel it's more likely that not much else changes. 205 games is pretty significant. Has to start improving next year.

 

[Uchiha]

He's abysmal defensively but is good offensively.

 

[topshelf15]

He's abysmal defensively but is good offensively.

How can you be a fan and just spout off nonsense like this without any context

 

[topshelf15]

I think in five years Cody Ceci could very well be a top 4 defenceman. He's still quite young at 22 years old. He already has strong production, but just needs to work on his play in his own zone. For now he isn't a top 4, but he has the potential to be.

Again, wrong maybe him not having to carry partners that have no buisness in any team,s top 4 .In guys like Cowen and Wiercioch ,his defense isnt as bad as these two slugs made it look .Need to look at more than just numbers here

 

[Gavin Ray]

Again, wrong maybe him not having to carry partners that have no buisness in any team,s top 4 .In guys like Cowen and Wiercioch ,his defense isnt as bad as these two slugs made it look .Need to look at more than just numbers here

You are just giving the same useless arguments:
a) He had to carry his partner
b) You need to actually watch the games instead of looking at numbers

My response once again:
a) He played with Methot for longer than he played with Cowen and looked awful with him. He looked good next to Phaneuf in a very small sample size, where he put up a ridiculous amount of points and rarely had goals scored against him - unsustainable.
b) I watched every single sens game last year. I'm using analytics to support my argument.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Ottawa damaged him by not acquiring a Phaneuf a long time prior to when they did. The instant Phaneuf came in he was a different player, now, with a coach who actually knows something about playing a defensive game, he'll flourish.

How can anyone claim he's not a top 4 guy after watching? He's young, he made mistakes and he was paired with two of the worst defenseman I've ever seen last year, but you could still see it. He can skate, he's got a nice shot, he got bullied off the puck a lot in the first half of the year, but from game 60 ish on he started to really hold his own, he's a great outlet passer, better than people give him credit for.

He had a great rookie season, was rushed a bit because of it, got saddled with Cowen and then looked great with a real D-man. It's actually not that uncommon a story for a 22 year old D-man.

 

[Liver King]

You are just giving the same useless arguments:
a) He had to carry his partner
b) You need to actually watch the games instead of looking at numbers

My response once again:
a) He played with Methot for longer than he played with Cowen and looked awful with him. He looked good next to Phaneuf in a very small sample size, where he put up a ridiculous amount of points and rarely had goals scored against him - unsustainable.
b) I watched every single sens game last year. I'm using analytics to support my argument.

So you use the argument that Ceci with Phaneuf was top 4 material but that was a small sample size and not sustainable (even though a year of progression, more time together, and a competent defensive system would all point to improvements in his game).

The statement for whether its sustainable or not is irrelevant...I could say his 'awful play' with Methot (your blanket conclusion) was not sustainable do to the sample size and they could likely improve with more time together. As well, with Ceci and Pheanuf, I could make the argument that their play can be sustained with improvements in other area, even if the goalies save percentage drops (even though a great save percentage is heavily influenced by his team forcing 'weaker' or 'low scoring chance' shots - not necessarily less), a better system and improvement in his game over the summer could very well negate that.

currently Ceci is a #4 d-man, Phaneuf (#3) solidified that. All eyes pointed to Ceci BEING A TOP 4 DMAN once that trade commenced. Our most recent viewing of Ceci is the most relevant because of his age. There is no doubt.

 

[Gavin Ray]

So you use the argument that Ceci with Phaneuf was top 4 material but that was a small sample size and not sustainable (even though a year of progression, more time together, and a competent defensive system would all point to improvements in his game).

The statement for weather its sustainable or not is irrelevant...I could say his 'awful play' with Methot (your blanket conclusion) was not sustainable do to the sample size and they could likely improve with more time together.

currently Ceci is a #4 d-man, Phaneuf (#3) solidified that.

There is so much wrong with this I don't know where to start.

My argument is that Ceci appeared to be a top 4 defenceman because the pairing of Phaneuf and Ceci got ridiculously lucky in terms of goal scoring and goal prevention. They had a 65% goals for percentage, that would make them hands down the best pairing on the planet by far. That is why it is unsustainable.

But it you look at how they did in terms of producing scoring chances and preventing scoring chances, you'll see that although they weren't bad, they weren't good either. They just capitalized on the few chances they produced, and were lucky to not have been scored on on the many chances they gave up.

Thats why goal based metrics like plus/minus aren't very telling about a player because they don't take into consideration shooting percentage or save percentage.

My point regarding Methot is that people like to blame Ceci's partners for his own bad play, saying before Phaneuf he's never had good partners. But, he played with Methot more than he played Cowen last season.

Ceci isn't a top 4 defenceman at this point in time, and Dion freaking Phaneuf is definitely not a #3.

 

[topshelf15]

Not worried at all about Ceci ,kid is a good young top 4 that will only get better as he grows with a steady partner.Gavin Ray can be clueless all he wants,but most already see him as such .Including our gm whom i would think knows a bit of something about a player he scouted,and recomended to be drafted

 

[Korpse]

There is so much wrong with this I don't know where to start.

My argument is that Ceci appeared to be a top 4 defenceman because the pairing of Phaneuf and Ceci got ridiculously lucky in terms of goal scoring and goal prevention. They had a 65% goals for percentage, that would make them hands down the best pairing on the planet by far. That is why it is unsustainable.

But it you look at how they did in terms of producing scoring chances and preventing scoring chances, you'll see that although they weren't bad, they weren't good either. They just capitalized on the few chances they produced, and were lucky to not have been scored on on the many chances they gave up.

Thats why goal based metrics like plus/minus aren't very telling about a player because they don't take into consideration shooting percentage or save percentage.

My point regarding Methot is that people like to blame Ceci's partners for his own bad play, saying before Phaneuf he's never had good partners. But, he played with Methot more than he played Cowen last season.

Ceci isn't a top 4 defenceman at this point in time, and Dion freaking Phaneuf is definitely not a #3.

I'm not sure many are saying it's his partners fault, I can't speak for others but I'm just saying too much was being asked of him. He was expected to carry the second pairing when in an ideal situation he needs support. Phanuef is hopefully someone who can provide support. Methot and Ceci never worked, that was very clear with just the eye test and I'm not sure why that is to be honest. I wouldn't say it's an indictment of Ceci's ability though.

How many minutes did Ceci and Methot actually spend together.

you honestly think there is 120 other defensemen in the league that are better than Ceci?

 

[Benjamin]

Ceci playing with Phaneuf = 22%
Ceci playing with Methot = 13%
Ceci playing with Wiercioch, Cowen, Kostka, Boro = 58%
Ceci playing with Phaneuf or Methot = 35%

 

[Stuzchuk]

Wow if a 3rd pairing dman gets more than 4mil and long term contract then

-______________________________-

so with these comments it's safe to say that Jake Gardiner is a career AHLer...

 

[Gavin Ray]

All eyes pointed to Ceci BEING A TOP 4 DMAN once that trade commenced. Our most recent viewing of Ceci is the most relevant because of his age. There is no doubt.

Yes! This is precisely my point. Before the trade Ceci looked absolutely awful, but right after the trade for Phaneuf, it almost appeared like a switch went off and Ceci became an amazing top 4 defenceman. He even finished the year with 5 points in his last 6 games.

But this was only because our goalies had an unbelievable .962sv% when they were on the ice together. Even though they gave up many scoring chances, it almost seemed like that pairing never got scored on.

On top of that they got lucky with shooting percentage, Ceci's personal shooting percentage was 8.6% more than double of what it was last year. And the senators controlled scoring at an extremely high rate (65% goals for).

 

[topshelf15]

Ceci playing with Phaneuf = 22%
Ceci playing with Methot = 13%
Ceci playing with Wiercioch, Cowen, Kostka, Boro = 58%
Ceci playing with Phaneuf or Methot = 35%

Says it all ,i watched him as a freshly minted 20 year old and stabilse our second pairing after both Cowen and Weir .Starting doing the only thing they were ever consisantly good at ,which was sucking .Lots of people just dont get it or just want to look at his numbers and claim they know everything about him but they are so very wrong with Ceci its just not funny

 

[Liver King]

Yes! This is precisely my point. Before the trade Ceci looked absolutely awful, but right after the trade for Phaneuf, it almost appeared like a switch went off and Ceci became an amazing top 4 defenceman. He even finished the year with 5 points in his last 6 games.

But this was only because our goalies had an unbelievable .962sv% when they were on the ice together. Even though they gave up many scoring chances, it almost seemed like that pairing never got scored on.

On top of that they got lucky with shooting percentage, Ceci's personal shooting percentage was 8.6% more than double of what it was last year. And the senators controlled scoring at an extremely high rate (65% goals for).

I wouldn't say awful - some bad games but pretty mediocre imo.

And yes, Phaneuf was that switched that vastly improved his game. You cant conclude that this "was only because of the goalies save percentage.", anybody who watched him play after that trade would notice a clear improvement in his game- and that translated to on ice success. A greater save percentage when they were on the ice is nothing but a positive thing...sure that can drop, but in tern their play could improve with more time and a better system (in the shot suppression side of things) which could balance things out. That pairing did rarely get scored on, very true. An 8.6 shooting percentage isnt out of this world, seemed to me he was far more willing to shoot and rush with the puck with Phaneuf than with his previous partners. which is a big positive sign because he was drafted as an offesnive dman, not a defesnive wizard. Once we got Phanuef, Ceci played and looked undoubtingly like a top 4 D...and since that was the last 20 games of the season (and his partner for next season). I would conclude he is currently a top 4 dman, with the potential to be a very good top 4 dman. He could also regress as you predict, but at this stage I think that is highly unlikely to occur.

 

[TeamRenzo]

I think in five years Cody Ceci could very well be a top 4 defenceman. He's still quite young at 22 years old. He already has strong production, but just needs to work on his play in his own zone. For now he isn't a top 4, but he has the potential to be.

What determines if a player is a "top four defenseman"? Is it you, advanced stats or where he actually plays in the line up?

You are entitled to your opinion but Ceci is a much better player than you are giving him credit for.