Player Discussion Cody Ceci Part II

[JD1]

Ceci was 10/27 in EV Corsi today....

Do you see the problem with the eye-test sometimes??

are you implying that the eye test says he was ok but advanced stats say otherwise because of corsi?

 

[Uchiha]

indeed there is and some of them are very frequent and vocal in posting about it.

What list does Johnny T make? Everyone's 10 best centers in the world list? A lot of peoples 5 best centers in the world list? And Ceci plays 17 or 18 minutes a night 5 on 5. I couldn't be bothered to look up how many minutes they were both on the ice for at 5 on 5.

Here's the reality of today's game. Johnny T, either top 5 or top 10 Johnny T, got shut out today like all his other islander buddies against a Sens team playing in front of an NHL goaltender. And not only did the Islanders get shut out, they really didn't get a sniff.

How many little interactions do you think occur in a game between a 1C and the shutdown dman who is out against him? So he got beat by Johnny T on a play. Geezus. I think some of you have no clue. At all.

The very least you could do is hold off your largely misplaced complaints for a game where Ceci and the Sens get lit up.

Lets just enjoy today's shutout and hope the Leafs lose tonight!

Go Sens Go!

Tavares didn't beat Ceci on the play, Ceci beat himself by running away from the puck.

 

[Micklebot]

Tavares didn't beat Ceci on the play, Ceci beat himself by running away from the puck.

He went for a hit, Tavares read it, and went wide. Open ice hits look bad when you miss and this was no exception because he missed completely.

 

[JD1]

Tavares didn't beat Ceci on the play, Ceci beat himself by running away from the puck.

Ceci and Phaneuf were wide enough apart that Johnny T with a full head of steam could have gone through the middle. Ceci switched his stick to the inside and moved to the middle to close that down, Johnny T went wide and had a lesser scoring chance that Anderson easily handled.

 

[Viletho]

Ceci was 10/27 in EV Corsi today....

Do you see the problem with the eye-test sometimes??

Lol Corsi..

The eye test doesn't lie this time.

The Islanders where not able to create chances almost all game.

That's what matter. Corsi isn't saying the quality of the shot that are taken.

 

[Uchiha]

Ceci and Phaneuf were wide enough apart that Johnny T with a full head of steam could have gone through the middle. Ceci switched his stick to the inside and moved to the middle to close that down, Johnny T went wide and had a lesser scoring chance that Anderson easily handled.

Unbelievable.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Some of you folks are bat**** crazy and it's difficult to figure out unless it's cool to be an internet warrior.

Ceci has been great as a young #4 dman, why is it necessary to isolate a single play on a single shift. I don't think folks know how to evaluate dmen besides looking at the scoring sheet.

If you think he will be exposed in the expansion draft you're nuts, if you think he'll be traded you're nuts. He will keep developing and will provide years of solid D. There is a contingent on this board that is both very immature and very poor at evaluating hockey players.

Posts like these are immature and hypocritical

People have opinions. Their opinions don't coincide with yours and it's all of a sudden it has no merit and holds no weight when it comes to evaluating a player on the team?

Why does anyone on these forums think that other posters would intentionally "hate" on a player without reason? Mind boggling

 

[JD1]

nothing unbelievable about it at all. JT looked like he was going thru the middle. Ceci bought it. the middle got shut. JT busted it outside.

Did Ceci look good on that play? no. Tavares will do that to you. Hockey players of that calibre make defencemen look silly EVERY DAY. But he would have looked worse had Tavares split them and got a better chance.

 

[ekarlsson65]

I see a problem with the Cf% test.

He was 56.66% in xGF and 71.43% in HDCF%

Islanders had very few quality chances with him out there, and that's mostly with there top line out there.

I would argue the sample size on HDCF is extremely small here, he went 5 and 2.

 

[ekarlsson65]

I don't know if this has been spoken about in prior threads, but when do we start criticizing Ceci's offensive output as a top 4 D? Yes he's in a shutdown role, but there are other guys in shutdown roles who still put up points. Has it been accepted that Ceci isn't that gifted offensively? Should Boucher give him more PP time ahead of Wideman?

 

[Micklebot]

I would argue the sample size on HDCF is extremely small here, he went 5 and 2.

Yeah, but the sample size for xGF is the quite high (same as Fenwick as RTSS doesn't track coordinates for blocked shots). The point remains and was pretty clear; while Ceci was on the ice, the quality of chances against was pretty low, which was pretty apparent using the eye test, but you deferred to CF% which imo wasn't representative of Ceci's performance.

I don't know if this has been spoken about in prior threads, but when do we start criticizing Ceci's offensive output as a top 4 D? Yes he's in a shutdown role, but there are other guys in shutdown roles who still put up points. Has it been accepted that Ceci isn't that gifted offensively? Should Boucher give him more PP time ahead of Wideman?

Historically his production has been fine, very good even. this is the first year where it's dipped.

Do we need to question Vatanen, Giordano and Gostibehere's offensive abilities, all of who ceci is currently ahead of in 5v5 pts/60? I suppose they get the benefit of the doubt because they all benefit from being on the 1st PP unit and get points there, luckily for them they don't play behind Karlsson.

 

[JD1]

I would argue the sample size on HDCF is extremely small here, he went 5 and 2.

wouldn't the sample size whether you're arguing hdcf or corsi be the same....one game....???

 

[Micklebot]

wouldn't the sample size whether you're arguing hdcf or corsi be the same....one game....???

Yes and no; While in both cases, it's just one gaem, it's also 7 events vs 37 events. Problem is neither is a sufficient sample to be terrible meaningful, at least in any predictive way.

 

[JD1]

I disagree....I'd say it is rather meaningful that you hold en elite 1C to 2 dangerous opportunities and that he was shut out. That's a great game

I don't put a lot of stock in the corsi. look at the zone starts for our 7 D. 5 of them were 50% or higher and Ceci and Phaneuf were in the 20s.

You think a bunch of guys on the team are looking at Ceci and Phaneuf and thinking you guys got buried tonight? No. They're saying good games boys which it was. And some of them are probably thankful they don't have to play those minutes against those guys. .

 

[ekarlsson65]

Yes and no; While in both cases, it's just one gaem, it's also 7 events vs 37 events. Problem is neither is a sufficient sample to be terrible meaningful, at least in any predictive way.

Oh I fully believe in evaluating players (if we're talking seasons at a time) by about the 20-40-60, and 80 game marks. Sometimes what you see in game 20 you won't see by game 60. It's similar to how hockey teams are judged. I believe I read somewhere that if you picked each team who had a higher Score Adjusted Fenwick in the last 15-20 games of their schedule than their opponent in the playoffs, you would be about 65-68% right.

They have this more in football, it's called Weighted DVOA, they weigh recent games more than matchups at the beginning of the season.

I was just referencing one game, but I'm sure we will discuss Ceci more by the 60 and 82 game marks as part of his total evaluation.

To Add: Would anyone be opposed to swapping Cody Franson with Ceci on the blueline if we could sign Franson for a few years?

 

[ekarlsson65]

I disagree....I'd say it is rather meaningful that you hold en elite 1C to 2 dangerous opportunities and that he was shut out. That's a great game

I don't put a lot of stock in the corsi. look at the zone starts for our 7 D. 5 of them were 50% or higher and Ceci and Phaneuf were in the 20s.

You think a bunch of guys on the team are looking at Ceci and Phaneuf and thinking you guys got buried tonight? No. They're saying good games boys which it was. And some of them are probably thankful they don't have to play those minutes against those guys. .

I don't really get the point of this, most NHL players who stats heavily unfavour will think they are garbage. If someone told you that your possession sucked and you were in the NHL what would you say to that?

I've seen stats shown to Auston Matthews where it shows him in his great areas and he's said there's a lot of stock in them. You're going to get different opinions from different guys, but most players probably don't give a crap about them. That's really besides the point, these guys aren't businessmen, they aren't paid to put a team together and get the best possible value added with the best possible talent to win a cup and contend every season

 

[ekarlsson65]

Yes and no; While in both cases, it's just one gaem, it's also 7 events vs 37 events. Problem is neither is a sufficient sample to be terrible meaningful, at least in any predictive way.

If you get a chance check out the NSH-EDM matchup/score rates, Laviolette threw Matt Irwin and Ryan Ellis against the McDavid line the other night and they excelled greatly. Irwin was a FA pickup I think in August last summer for pennies.

 

[JD1]

I don't really get the point of this, most NHL players who stats heavily unfavour will think they are garbage.

you don't get the point of it?

sorry can't help you.

 

[ekarlsson65]

you don't get the point of it?

sorry can't help you.

So we're going based off what the locker room thinks of him?

Well then I guess Borowiecki should be given a 6 year extension because he drives his snowmobile to the CTC during snow storms, and the team loves how eco-friendly he's become

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So...how badly did we lose today, and how many goals did Tavares get?

....oh, you mean we won? And Tavares was held pointless?

Wow....Ceci must really suck.

 

[ekarlsson65]

Yeah, but the sample size for xGF is the quite high (same as Fenwick as RTSS doesn't track coordinates for blocked shots). The point remains and was pretty clear; while Ceci was on the ice, the quality of chances against was pretty low, which was pretty apparent using the eye test, but you deferred to CF% which imo wasn't representative of Ceci's performance.



Historically his production has been fine, very good even. this is the first year where it's dipped.

Do we need to question Vatanen, Giordano and Gostibehere's offensive abilities, all of who ceci is currently ahead of in 5v5 pts/60? I suppose they get the benefit of the doubt because they all benefit from being on the 1st PP unit and get points there, luckily for them they don't play behind Karlsson.

Shall we increase the sample size to three years on this? Where do they sit then?

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

I thought Ceci played pretty well today. Seeing him being criticized for a rather decent performance would be surprising, but at this point I think we're all used to it.

 

[Samsquanch]

So...how badly did we lose today, and how many goals did Tavares get?

....oh, you mean we won? And Tavares was held pointless?

Wow....Ceci must really suck.

Haha pretty much this.

And lol at the person who said Corsi that told us he had a bad game, and that the eye test failed....

 

[ekarlsson65]

Haha pretty much this.

And lol at the person who said Corsi that told us he had a bad game, and that the eye test failed....

Yeah the eye-test can be misleading to some people. Human subjectivity is a real thing

 

[JD1]

the eye test and stats are kind of similar. in one instance you need to understand what you see (with an obvious bit of subjectivity) and in the stats instance you need to interpret and infer from the data.

posting corsi to suggest he had a bad game when Ceci was buried in his own end on D zone starts and playing against JT kinda suggests you struggle with both.