Confirmed with Link: Clayton Keller, Coyotes agree on 8-year, $7.15M AAV extension

[WrinkledPossum]

Expect Soderstrom and Hayton to be pushed into roles ASAP so that they can be set up to sign this type of cheap, long deal at the end of their 2nd ELC year.

Chayka is expoiting a gap in a player's risk tolerance with this type of deal, while also maximizing the strengths of NHL guaranteed contracts. Keller's choice here was to bet $56 million against himself that he'd play well enough next year to earn significantly more AND stay healthy AND the Coyotes would be willing to offer a deal of similar length. Any player that has good advisors will be advised to take this deal over waiting for something that may not materialize. Most every player - unless they come from extreme wealth - will be eager to take this type of deal.

Drafting hockey nerds that live and breathe the game is also a part of this stragegy, because they are the least likely to be lazy after signing such a deal. These deals are how the Coyotes will stay competitive moving forward, and keep talent under control. Control is value.

Great post. Laziness post contract is a concern and I hope you're right that our players are nerds who won't become content with the money.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

Been behind on this thread all along and not much fun catching up, finally gave up at page nine.
Takeaway:
Great to see xx with a positive outlook!
Never put anyone on ignore, but man this Toronto kid tempts.
My thoughts:
Everything carries risk, this contract falls into the everything category.

 

[Jakey53]

Of course you like it, most fans will. We signed our future 1D, 1W, 2C, 1W to long term deals at less than market value if they all fulfill their lofty expectations. Sounds awesome to me. I'm just pointing out the risk in all of these signings, they are all unproven for what they are being paid plus term. Do you like the fact that the same GM traded Domi/Strome and they had monster seasons? I know we got value in return, but those seasons had to sting Chayka. He hasn't been very good at predicting the future of young players, just keep that in mind when you look at these signings.

There is risk in any contract. I never liked signing a 28 yo. to a long term contract as it hardly works out and gets teams in cap hell. I would rather take a gamble on a young kid that shows potential than a soon to be over the hill vet. Keller and Schmaltz have shown promise so I'm not worried about them playing up to their contract value. DVO and Chychrun are still a mystery and could go either way, but even if they don't live up to their potential with us they will still be tradeable because their contract will not be crazy over payment.

 

[Jakey53]

Signing guys early to lower AAVs is the only way this team will ever be competitive. The Coyotes cannot pay market price+ for everyone and have a good roster. That's just dumb. Nobody is out there trying to pay full price or worse for their players.

You are basically asking the entire front office to not project anything, only to react, and in the process waste $20m+ that could be spent on additional depth. That's before we get to avoiding drama like other teams are having with RFAs.

If you look at the deals signed this summer, 7.1m for the entirety of a top 6 forward's prime is a bargain. You keep saying money is "tied up" in these players but it's really not. The deal adds significant trade value to Keller if for some reason he wants out. Teams love a known quantity. It doesn't get more known than 8 years of a reasonable rate.

Of all the moves Chayka has made, this is the least risky or unreasonable.

This post exactly.

 

[Jakey53]

Expect Soderstrom and Hayton to be pushed into roles ASAP so that they can be set up to sign this type of cheap, long deal at the end of their 2nd ELC year.

Chayka is expoiting a gap in a player's risk tolerance with this type of deal, while also maximizing the strengths of NHL guaranteed contracts. Keller's choice here was to bet $56 million against himself that he'd play well enough next year to earn significantly more AND stay healthy AND the Coyotes would be willing to offer a deal of similar length. Any player that has good advisors will be advised to take this deal over waiting for something that may not materialize. Most every player - unless they come from extreme wealth - will be eager to take this type of deal.

Drafting hockey nerds that live and breathe the game is also a part of this stragegy, because they are the least likely to be lazy after signing such a deal. These deals are how the Coyotes will stay competitive moving forward, and keep talent under control. Control is value.

Not sure what happened to you while you were gone for awhile there, but you have come back and are making sense.

 

[Jakey53]

Of course Kellers agent would tell him to take this deal, its 8 years at way over his current market value. If keller manages 65 points next year, he would get the same deal. Keller has to hit 80 points or more to get a better deal than this next year. Now, I like Keller and I hope he has a great season, but Chayka might have misplayed his hand (again).

Is it "way over" his current value?

 

[Snarky Coyote]

Let’s vote:

A. I approve of this signing
B. I regret this signing

Quote this post with a letter option selected (keeping non-Coyotes fans out).

A

 

[Jakey53]

A

Still waiting for Cobra, RemoAZ and Jamieh to cast their vote.

 

[rt]

Still waiting for Cobra, RemoAZ and Jamieh to cast their vote.

If you @cobra427 @RemoAZ @Jamieh -they’ll get an alert.

 

[Jamieh]

I did already.

 

[Jamieh]

Is it "way over" his current value?

1 milion per 10 points is the general rule. Lee way for guys who do more than the average player. It's really hard to argue that he has earned $7 million but none of us know if he will earn it. That's why many of us have asked why rush and put forward the risk factor. It does not mean we don't like Keller.

 

[hbk]

Just wanted to toss this out there on the $1M for every 10 point thing for forwards. Dvorak needs a 10 point increase from his 2nd year totals to hit that threshold.

 

[Jamieh]

Just wanted to toss this out there on the $1M for every 10 point thing for forwards. Dvorak needs a 10 point increase from his 2nd year totals to hit that threshold.

Yes, sorry assumed that was obvious.

 

[hbk]

Yes, sorry assumed that was obvious.

The way the “sky has been falling” on Chayka’s disastrous contracts talk was going I don’t think it was to many.

Keller needs a 7 point increase from his rookie (apparently peak) season.

 

[Bandit34]

Not sure what happened to you while you were gone for awhile there, but you have come back and are making sense.

Agreed. Its nice to see him in a better mood. Happy for you xx.

 

[Jamieh]

The way the “sky has been falling” on Chayka’s disastrous contracts talk was going I don’t think it was to many.

Keller needs a 7 point increase from his rookie (apparently peak) season.

That's the risk again. Did Keller have a minor setback or now that NHL teams know him is he easy to take out of the game?? Being a hockey rink rat I assume he will adjust and find his way forward but then again I see little downside in letting the player prove it before paying him.

 

[Jakey53]

That's the risk again. Did Keller have a minor setback or now that NHL teams know him is he easy to take out of the game?? Being a hockey rink rat I assume he will adjust and find his way forward but then again I see little downside in letting the player prove it before paying him.

That "little downside" you are talking about could cost the team millions over an eight year term. If we waited a year and he gets back to his 65 pt. level or higher, you never know what Keller and his agent are thinking. They may want a 5 yr. term like many of the high end RFA's want. With Keller, I think the "little downside" is signing him now, not next year. DVO and Chychrun's contract signing were a different story.

 

[Jamieh]

That "little downside" you are talking about could cost the team millions over an eight year term. If we waited a year and he gets back to his 65 pt. level or higher, you never know what Keller and his agent are thinking. They may want a 5 yr. term like many of the high end RFA's want. With Keller, I think the "little downside" is signing him now, not next year. DVO and Chychrun's contract signing were a different story.

If he gets 65 points again he would not have earned more money, how can you not get that?? He has little leverage as offer sheets are non-existent. If he gets 65 points 2 out of his first 3 seasons he would basically be William Nylander, the player many think got overpaid at just under $7 million.

 

[Jamieh]

Jakey in your analysis of this deal have you left any possibility that Keller does not average 65 points over the term of the contract?

 

[Jakey53]

If he gets 65 points again he would not have earned more money, how can you not get that?? He has little leverage as offer sheets are non-existent.

Maybe, maybe not, but it could also be for a shorter term, and cost the team more money after the dust settles. How can you not get that? I can't see how anyone can be against this deal. It's a bit high now, but if I were a betting man, I say he outplays his new contract this year even though his new deal doesn't start until the year after.

 

[Jakey53]

Jakey in your analysis of this deal have you left any possibility that Keller does not average 65 points over the term of the contract?

In your analysis of this deal have you left any possibility that he averages over 65 pts over the term of the contract?

 

[Jamieh]

Maybe, maybe not, but it could also be for a shorter term, and cost the team more money after the dust settles. How can you not get that? I can't see how anyone can be against this deal. It's a bit high now, but if I were a betting man, I say he outplays his new contract this year even though his new deal doesn't start until the year after.

Do you think there are more examples of early betting on contracts that benefited teams or players? That is why we talk of risk? For every MacKinnon deal there are a few Drouins. Would you rather the team pay exact value for the lineup or roll the dice early on every player drafted? Which is more likely to pan out in the wins column?

 

[rt]

I neither approve or regret this signing. Happy to have Keller locked up long term but have a little concern about the rush to give that much Cap money. I suspect it will work out just fine.

Not an option. All you are doing is reserving the right to proclaim yourself correct no matter the outcome. It’s a tired schtick.

 

[Jamieh]

In your analysis of this deal have you left any possibility that he averages over 65 pts over the term of the contract?

No as it is extremely unlikely. As to the tune of probably 20 or less players as the norm.

 

[Jamieh]

Not an option. All you are doing is reserving the right to proclaim yourself correct no matter the outcome. It’s a tired schtick.

I am happy we have signed him, I do not regret it. However I still have concerns about timing of signing and contract. So I cannot answer no regrets, I hope to not be correct and think I will be fine with it next season.