Just stop -as usual, you have no earthly idea what you are talking about. All athletics has been on a "what will you do for me?" basis and not a "what have you done for me?" basis.
It's even in the way that the contracts are structured - take any player with a long-term deal and you will see exactly what is being talked about:
Jeff Carter signed an 11 year deal in 2010-11 offseason. He has won 2 Stanley Cups. Based on past performance, like you said, he should be making more money in the last years of his deal, because the expectation is that his past performance would affect the latter part of his deal. Yet, in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 season, he is only making $2 M per season. The reason why is because the expectation is that what he will do for your team in those seasons is less than what he would do when he was at a younger age.
You use what has been done in the past to help assess the value of where the player compares to peers, but depending on where they are at in career is what determines what they will be capable of.
What would you pay for the following free agents next year for a 1 year AAV (or are you going to skirt the question, as usual?):
Tyler Toffoli
Mike Hoffman
Evgeni Dadonov
Chris Kreider
Corey Perry
I want to see if your salaries match up with what the player has done in the past, or if they match up to what you think the player is capable of. Because if you are following what you are stating that you base it off what the player has done, then Corey Perry should be no worse than the 2nd highest salary amongst these five.
The car and house payment relative to an athlete is exactly what you fail to understand - those payments aren't made on what that can become. My 2000 square foot house isn't going to magically become a 3500 sq ft. house. But an 18 or 19 year old kid can easily gain 10-40 pounds of muscle, and grow 1-4 inches. There are very few 18, 19, 20, and 21 year olds that have their best seasons in those years, and then decline the rest of the way. Houses, cars, or any other big ticket item don't have a specific bell curve to them. A player should be peaking between the ages of 25 and 31. In other sports, that number can be different. In basketball, it is probably 22-32. In football, it is probably 24-28 for RBs, but 25-34 for a QB. We are placing the bulk of the money into the prime years of that player. How you do not understand that is beyond my comprehension.
