Value of: Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak extensions

[DFC]

you’re severely underrating Cirelli. He’s consistently leading bolts forwards in ice time this year and is gonna be a stud

I say 5.5+ at least

I've watched every game of Cirelli's career, minus maybe five, and I know full well how good he is. But Cirelli gets 5.5 when Brayden Point gets 9. He's gonna come in a lot lower than people realize, same as Point. Same as Sergachev. TB doesn't cave to RFAs.

You're underestimating Cernak though. He'll get over 2, I think.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Because we win a lot more than Minnesota, and Montreal doesn't. I could see him waiving to leave MTL for TB, which is much more similar to the Parise situation.

Minnesota was in the playoffs 6 of the last 7 seasons, New York was only in 4 of the last 7. So not sure how that makes sense.

We do win more than Montreal but he's a 4th liner now. I'm sure he likes winning but all these guys like playing a lot more than winning, so getting 17 minutes a night should be more appealing than 12.

 

[DFC]

If Serge signs that I c*m

I'll bet he signs in the high 4s.

 

[DFC]

Minnesota was in the playoffs 6 of the last 7 seasons, New York was only in 4 of the last 7. So not sure how that makes sense.

We do win more than Montreal but he's a 4th liner now. I'm sure he likes winning but all these guys like playing a lot more than winning, so getting 17 minutes a night should be more appealing than 12.

NYI was there last year and they're there again this year. It's apples and oranges.

Asking Gourde to waive is asking him to take a paycut to go play under intense scrutiny on a team that doesn't look ready to make the playoffs any time soon.

 

[ccman68]

Great another thread where people pretend Gourde has no value since they only look at points and don’t understand a thing.

He is worth every bit of that contract. Obviously his production has dropped but that’s to be expected when you have to play on the 4th line because of our depth (and because someone like Johnson doesn’t fit the 4th line so we don’t have many options).

If you want him it starts with a first and your top prospect. You don’t get good top six forwards on solid deals for all that cheap. If you want someone for free you can have Johnson.

 

[DFC]

Great another thread where people pretend Gourde has no value since they only look at points and don’t understand a thing.

He is worth every bit of that contract. Obviously his production has dropped but that’s to be expected when you have to play on the 4th line because of our depth (and because someone like Johnson doesn’t fit the 4th line so we don’t have many options).

If you want him it starts with a first and your top prospect. You don’t get good top six forwards on solid deals for all that cheap. If you want someone for free you can have Johnson.

Pretty much. Gourde has spent more time in the top-9 recently and, like magic, has started producing again. He's been playing with rookies and grinders all year. Gourde won't produce if he's the most creative guy on his line. He's not that kind of player. He's just there to bang in rebounds and make it ugly.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I've watched every game of Cirelli's career, minus maybe five, and I know full well how good he is. But Cirelli gets 5.5 when Brayden Point gets 9. He's gonna come in a lot lower than people realize, same as Point. Same as Sergachev. TB doesn't cave to RFAs.

You're underestimating Cernak though. He'll get over 2, I think.

What are your comparables for Cernak? You can go Carlo who will have played roughly a seasons worth of NHL games more than Cernak. The point production is close and they are both good defensively. He got a 2 year 2.8 deal. You can go Petterson in Pittsburgh who played 25 or so less NHL games but produced at a higher ppg rate. He got a 1 year 875k show me deal. So one was over 2 and one less than 1 so I would split the difference and go 2 year 1.85.

 

[DFC]

What are your comparables for Cernak? You can go Carlo who will have played roughly a seasons worth of NHL games more than Cernak. The point production is close and they are both good defensively. He got a 2 year 2.8 deal. You can go Petterson in Pittsburgh who played 25 or so less NHL games but produced at a higher ppg rate. He got a 1 year 875k show me deal. So one was over 2 and one less than 1 so I would split the difference and go 2 year 1.85.

I think it'll be low 2s. 2.1 or so. Something to respect that he's our #4 and he's a solid one.

If I had to guess now, I'd say something like:

Serg -- 4.8 <-- Iffy there, because as good as this year has been, he was really, REALLY sheltered in the previous two.
Cirelli -- 4.4 <-- Less than he deserves, but it's TB.
Cernak -- 2.1

Somewhere around 10.3 total. I think we'll definitely keep it under 11, and probably under 10.5.

 

[HoseEmDown]

NYI was there last year and they're there again this year. It's apples and oranges.

Asking Gourde to waive is asking him to take a paycut to go play under intense scrutiny on a team that doesn't look ready to make the playoffs any time soon.

Are they, they're barely hanging onto a wild card spot. And Minnesota was there every year with Parise till last year. Minnesota is only out by 3 points which is all the Islanders are up on Carolina. So both could make it or miss it.

How is it taking a pay cut, are they renegotiating his deal? Sure there's more taxes in Montreal but there's also much more ways to make money outside of hockey there than in Tampa. He can easily make that up in endorsements. If he rather have his ice time go down year after year just to win a few more games that's fine with him but the way he plays you can tell he wants to be on the ice more and not less. If asked I think it's more than 50/50 he waives easily.

 

[DFC]

Are they, they're barely hanging onto a wild card spot. And Minnesota was there every year with Parise till last year. Minnesota is only out by 3 points which is all the Islanders are up on Carolina. So both could make it or miss it.

How is it taking a pay cut, are they renegotiating his deal? Sure there's more taxes in Montreal but there's also much more ways to make money outside of hockey there than in Tampa. He can easily make that up in endorsements. If he rather have his ice time go down year after year just to win a few more games that's fine with him but the way he plays you can tell he wants to be on the ice more and not less. If asked I think it's more than 50/50 he waives easily.

Because so many of our NTCs have waived? I just don't see it. I think we might ask, but I can't see it happening. He'll be moved when his NTC relaxes, same as everyone else.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Because so many of our NTCs have waived? I just don't see it. I think we might ask, but I can't see it happening. He'll be moved when his NTC relaxes, same as everyone else.

When have we asked them to move? We didn't have much cap issues that required us to try to trade someone with a NTC till this summer. But in the past we had Brewer, Filpulla and Bishop all waive to be moved. Even Callahan had to waive to be traded to Ottawa last summer even though he was never go to play for them. So we've had a lot waive actually.

 

[DFC]

When have we asked them to move? We didn't have much cap issues that required us to try to trade someone with a NTC till this summer. But in the past we had Brewer, Filpulla and Bishop all waive to be moved. Even Callahan had to waive to be traded to Ottawa last summer even though he was never go to play for them. So we've had a lot waive actually.

Filppula didn't waive. He stopped at least one deal from going through, and probably more than that. I don't think we ever figured out if Bishop did or if LA was on his good list.

...And Callahan. Okay, you're in full Hose mode now, so I'll bow out before you get me again.

 

[Kupo]

Gourde has an NTC. Makes it neigh impossible to move unless for some inexplicable reason a Stanley cup contender jumps in and wants him and Gourde decides to waive. That just won't happen. We don't have Yzerman and his Yzedi Mind Tricks anymore.

Players with NMC/NTC’s are in fact, traded. It can create an obstacle in certain situations, but it doesn’t make it impossible or unlikely. Especially if it’s a decent player.

You’re hellbent on trying to prove a failed point here. Take the L, and move on.

 

[Sky04]

Pretty much. Gourde has spent more time in the top-9 recently and, like magic, has started producing again. He's been playing with rookies and grinders all year. Gourde won't produce if he's the most creative guy on his line. He's not that kind of player. He's just there to bang in rebounds and make it ugly.

He was moved to 4th line because he wasn't doing anything with the top-9 except killing plays, Cooper kept him there because that's the only place he showed any life outside the PK. He's finally producing because he got his head out of his ass to start earning some of that contract.

 

[Sky04]

When have we asked them to move? We didn't have much cap issues that required us to try to trade someone with a NTC till this summer. But in the past we had Brewer, Filpulla and Bishop all waive to be moved. Even Callahan had to waive to be traded to Ottawa last summer even though he was never go to play for them. So we've had a lot waive actually.

Brewer, Bishop and Filppula didn't waive.... they were in Killorn's situation, 16 team no trade list - modified NTC which are significantly easier to move.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Parise was going to waive his NMC to leave his home state Wild to go to the Islanders. So why will Gourde never waive?

Gourde pays no income tax. Montreal players pay the highest in the league. Now why would Gourde want to lose millions to pay in a media hit bed on a team without a clear direction over a top tier contender with no added pressure.

Parise would have been a player moving from a club heading in the opposite direction of the playoff caliber team he’d have been joining. Huge difference

 

[HoseEmDown]

Brewer, Bishop and Filppula didn't waive.... they were in Killorn's situation, 16 team no trade list - modified NTC which are significantly easier to move.

Do you know for sure that we shopped them to all 16 teams on that list? Or did we tell them we would like to trade them and asked them where they wanted to go? Because it's a big difference, with Killorn we most likely ask him to submit his list but also take offers from every team and try to get the best deal and hope he wants to go there. So it's a grey area of if they waived or not.

 

[TBF1972]

Foote got traded.

Tampa is still standing on one Foote.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Gourde pays no income tax. Montreal players pay the highest in the league. Now why would Gourde want to lose millions to pay in a media hit bed on a team without a clear direction over a top tier contender with no added pressure.

Parise would have been a player moving from a club heading in the opposite direction of the playoff caliber team he’d have been joining. Huge difference

Gourde is going to lose millions in taxes regardless. Sure it might be an extra million or two in Montreal over the course of his contract but he can make that back plus in endorsements if he's playing like he did a few years ago. He won't be making much if anything in endorsements in Tampa. So players in Tampa do have a tax advantage but Montreal has an endorsement advantage which probably evens out if not more for Montreal players.

Minnesota is in a transition but they aren't in the LA or Ottawa range. The Islanders aren't even much better off than the Wild either. They have a few nice pieces but they are far from a contender. They also play in a much tougher conference to make the playoffs.

 

[JoemAvs]

All of these guys scream prime candidates for an offersheet.
Players usually love it in Tampa and won't be easy to convince to sign them but I would be surprised if they won't atleast use it and the very tight capsituation in Tampa as leverage to get a better deal from them. Will be a very interesting offseason in Tampa. Especially if they don't win the cup.

 

[Byrddog]

Gourde is going to lose millions in taxes regardless. Sure it might be an extra million or two in Montreal over the course of his contract but he can make that back plus in endorsements if he's playing like he did a few years ago. He won't be making much if anything in endorsements in Tampa. So players in Tampa do have a tax advantage but Montreal has an endorsement advantage which probably evens out if not more for Montreal players.

Minnesota is in a transition but they aren't in the LA or Ottawa range. The Islanders aren't even much better off than the Wild either. They have a few nice pieces but they are far from a contender. They also play in a much tougher conference to make the playoffs.

People Poo'ing on the Islanders are not considering who they have behind the bench. Trotz year in and year out gets more out of players than any coach in the league, They are also 5th in the league in fewest goals allowed. The perfect comfort zone for Trotz. If Pageau can continue putting up .67 points per game like he has all year the Islanders are poised to make some noise.

 

[canuckking1]

Would Tampa match a 7x7 for Sergachev? If I was a team with cap space I'd do it.

 

[HoseEmDown]

People Poo'ing on the Islanders are not considering who they have behind the bench. Trotz year in and year out gets more out of players than any coach in the league, They are also 5th in the league in fewest goals allowed. The perfect comfort zone for Trotz. If Pageau can continue putting up .67 points per game like he has all year the Islanders are poised to make some noise.

And they'll be like his Preds teams that aren't good enough to ever win it all.

 

[93LEAFS]

People Poo'ing on the Islanders are not considering who they have behind the bench. Trotz year in and year out gets more out of players than any coach in the league, They are also 5th in the league in fewest goals allowed. The perfect comfort zone for Trotz. If Pageau can continue putting up .67 points per game like he has all year the Islanders are poised to make some noise.

What do you think happens to Pageau's .67 ppg when he goes from playing 19 minutes a game to a more typical 2nd line center usage of 16 to 17 minutes a game? That's before getting into expected shooting percentage regression.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Would Tampa match a 7x7 for Sergachev? If I was a team with cap space I'd do it.

Whose firsts are they?