Chychrun Megathread II

[Vinny Boombatz]

Lisa Dillman from The Athletic is suggesting a trade with LA Kings for Chychrun involving players like Vilardi,Turcotte,Kupari.Bjornfot. I don't understand why Coyotes would make trade like that.Vilardi has history of severe back problems and has minimal trade value now,Kupari is 21 years old,he played 44 games in NHL and scored 4 goals (we have a plenty of players like that already).He also has a history of significant knee injury.Turcotte may end up being a good player but his (limited) play in NHL was not very inspiring so far.Bjornfot looks like good defensive defenseman but nothing more than that.I know those players are former 1st round picks but that doesn't mean much at this point.Coyotes have 7 picks in first two rounds in 2022 draft and should have no problem finding players like that in the draft.Am I wrong? I would welcome any opinions

Yep, YUCK! Count me out...it has to be for prospects with huge upside, Vilardi, Turcotte, Kupari, Bjornfot all have limited ceilings. Do Not Want!

 

[rt]

I personally like Krebs way more than Turcotte. But that’s my own preference and bias. They’re likely viewed as roughly equivalent. If it’s not Byfield and it’s not Clarke (I truly question whether a prospect of this caliber deserves to be off-limits for a guy like Chychrun), then it’s likely Turcotte as the centerpiece.

The Kings 1st is much better than the Knights 1st. Meaningfully so. Enough to ditch the 2nd rounder that Vegas had to add. I’d rather have the one LAK over the two VGK picks.

Where it falls apart for me is the Alex Tuch equivalent. In my opinion, none of Vilardi, Bjornfot, or Kupari cut it. Even Grans and Faber are in that category for me.

Maybe I’m being too picky. Kings fans would likely balk at the concept of Turcotte and Faber and the 1st. But even though they’ll insist it’s way too much, it’s not all that appealing. My main comfort if that happened would be that BA and his staff know more about Turcotte and Faber than I do. And I’d have to just trust them. But I wouldn’t be super excited or anything.

 

[rt]

EDIT: that pick is appealing, though. That could be a favorite of mine. Marco Kasper, Rutger McGroarty, or Denton Mateychuk. Take one of those names, and then add Turcotte and Faber, and suddenly I like it more.

 

[rt]

Re-read the Kings article. She was suggesting the 1st and two of Turcotte, Vilardi, Kupari and Bjornfot.

That’s Turcotte and Bjornfot for me. The 1st is currently 18th.

Hmmm…I don’t love it.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I personally like Krebs way more than Turcotte. But that’s my own preference and bias. They’re likely viewed as roughly equivalent. If it’s not Byfield and it’s not Clarke (I truly question whether a prospect of this caliber deserves to be off-limits for a guy like Chychrun), then it’s likely Turcotte as the centerpiece.

The Kings 1st is much better than the Knights 1st. Meaningfully so. Enough to ditch the 2nd rounder that Vegas had to add. I’d rather have the one LAK over the two VGK picks.

Where it falls apart for me is the Alex Tuch equivalent. In my opinion, none of Vilardi, Bjornfot, or Kupari cut it. Even Grans and Faber are in that category for me.

Maybe I’m being too picky. Kings fans would likely balk at the concept of Turcotte and Faber and the 1st. But even though they’ll insist it’s way too much, it’s not all that appealing. My main comfort if that happened would be that BA and his staff know more about Turcotte and Faber than I do. And I’d have to just trust them. But I wouldn’t be super excited or anything.

I like Krebs way more than Turcotte. Clarke is the only piece that makes sense...so if it's Clarke & LA 1st rounder then they just need to add some more pieces, but without those 2 things...not much I like.

 

[PainForShane]

I personally like Krebs way more than Turcotte. But that’s my own preference and bias. They’re likely viewed as roughly equivalent. If it’s not Byfield and it’s not Clarke (I truly question whether a prospect of this caliber deserves to be off-limits for a guy like Chychrun), then it’s likely Turcotte as the centerpiece.

The Kings 1st is much better than the Knights 1st. Meaningfully so. Enough to ditch the 2nd rounder that Vegas had to add. I’d rather have the one LAK over the two VGK picks.

Where it falls apart for me is the Alex Tuch equivalent. In my opinion, none of Vilardi, Bjornfot, or Kupari cut it. Even Grans and Faber are in that category for me.

Maybe I’m being too picky. Kings fans would likely balk at the concept of Turcotte and Faber and the 1st. But even though they’ll insist it’s way too much, it’s not all that appealing. My main comfort if that happened would be that BA and his staff know more about Turcotte and Faber than I do. And I’d have to just trust them. But I wouldn’t be super excited or anything.

I jumped into the Kings board recently, first of all they seem like nice people and second of all it seems like every prospect is on the table (in the right deal) except for Byfield and Clarke (I was specifically asking about Clarke).

BUT. If you trade Chychrun you create a Chychrun sized hole in our roster, then how do you fill it. Imo we have a much better chance of drafting even a few top 6 centers than a potential 1D, Ds take time to develop and are hard to predict almost like goalies. With examples, for every Hedman or Makar (top draft pick superstars) there is at least one Olli Juolevi, Hayden Fleury etc (highly ranked busts) and also at least one Weber, Josi or Adam Fox (all second round or below, Fox went 66OA). Obviously we have a really good defenseman in Chychrun, imo why would we give that up. In addition to the other stuff, am not sure it's realistic to plan to draft top D even if we get all the draft picks in the world (D picks are too random).

Anyway I've said my piece about Chych multiple times, but @rt to your point LA seems like they'd consider anyone not named Clarke or Byfield. As a group they realize their prospect pool is pretty deep and seem like they're ok parting with anyone except for those two

 

[Mosby]

Colts’ Guzda signs with Panthers – Ontario Hockey League

Knight more available?

 

[VijayPatel11]

Colts’ Guzda signs with Panthers – Ontario Hockey League

Knight more available?

Guzda is an unknown. Not a replacement for Knight by any means. Just improving our goaltending pipeline depth.

 

[hbk]

Guzda is an unknown. Not a replacement for Knight by any means. Just improving our goaltending pipeline depth.

When Babrovsky is signed for another 5+ years and Knight is already part of the organization how does a team entice a goalie that is being targeted by numerous organizations with a cap entry level system without some reassurance that there is a pathway to the NHL within a reasonable time?

Maybe it’s as simple as being a no tax state.

 

[Jamieh]

When Babrovsky is signed for another 5+ years and Knight is already part of the organization how does a team entice a goalie that is being targeted by numerous organizations with a cap entry level system without some reassurance that there is a pathway to the NHL within a reasonable time?

Maybe it’s as simple as being a no tax state.

Here's to all that glorious snatch down in FLA!!!!!

Edit: had quote wrong

 

[PainForShane]

When Babrovsky is signed for another 5+ years and Knight is already part of the organization how does a team entice a goalie that is being targeted by numerous organizations with a cap entry level system without some reassurance that there is a pathway to the NHL within a reasonable time?

Maybe it’s as simple as being a no tax state.

I mean...

It's a contract from an NHL team, in FLA Luongo is the head goalie coach, Francois Allaire is involved at a high level as well. Anybody would sign this contract, including / maybe especially a 21 year old undrafted OHL goalie who had relatively poor numbers before this season. Can't speak to what this means for the Panthers org in general but a player like Gudza would and should sign a deal like this 100 out of 100 times

 

[hbk]

I mean...

It's a contract from an NHL team, in FLA Luongo is the head goalie coach, Francois Allaire is involved at a high level as well. Anybody would sign this contract, including / maybe especially a 21 year old undrafted OHL goalie who had relatively poor numbers before this season. Can't speak to what this means for the Panthers org in general but a player like Gudza would and should sign a deal like this 100 out of 100 times

I get what you are saying but normally a prospect who has many options like this case has a clear indication as to their path to NHL. Of the options available this is clearly the hardest to navigate for at least 5 years.

 

[PainForShane]

I get what you are saying but normally a prospect who has many options like this case has a clear indication as to their path to NHL. Of the options available this is clearly the hardest to navigate for at least 5 years.

Right but... I mean he's not a top prospect. For one thing he's 21, which means he's older than Knight, Askarov, Cossa, Wallstedt etc, not to mention he was never drafted and every game he's played in the past few years has been in the OHL (not even AHL). Plus if you look at his stats this was the first year he actually posted good numbers (though he did win some awards in his rookie OHL season in 2017-2018 back when he was still in high school).

Mack Guzda at eliteprospects.com

Are you trying to argue Gudza is some amazing prospect and / or has a clear path to the NHL? I think that's a tough argument to make. Imo much more likely he's just happy to be paid to play hockey, a deal with the Panthers (and exposure to amazing goalies / coaches like Francois Allaire) is too good of an opportunity to pass up

 

[hbk]

Right but... I mean he's not a top prospect. For one thing he's 21, which means he's older than Knight, Askarov, Cossa, Wallstedt etc, not to mention he was never drafted and every game he's played in the past few years has been in the OHL (not even AHL). Plus if you look at his stats this was the first year he actually posted good numbers (though he did win some awards in his rookie OHL season in 2017-2018 back when he was still in high school).

Mack Guzda at eliteprospects.com

Are you trying to argue Gudza is some amazing prospect and / or has a clear path to the NHL? I think that's a tough argument to make. Imo much more likely he's just happy to be paid to play hockey, a deal with the Panthers (and exposure to amazing goalies / coaches like Francois Allaire) is too good of an opportunity to pass up

He had 7 other teams competing for his services. All with clearer paths to playing in the NHL than the situation in Florida.

 

[PainForShane]

He had 7 other teams competing for his services. All with clearer paths to playing in the NHL than the situation in Florida.

Source? You may be right but forgive me if I'm hesitant to believe you based on his stats.

More importantly how many of the other teams have Francois Allaire / Luongo (or equivalent) running their goalie training? Personally to me that would matter much more (esp since he's only played in the OHL so far). At 21 I would think that getting better matters quite a bit. Either way no matter where he goes, due to his age / experience he's starting out below #2 on the depth chart regardless meaning actually improving should be a priority I would think

EDIT: Nevermind found a TSN article
Guzda keeps focus as NHL teams come calling - TSN.ca

Still think that as an overager dominating the OHL he's still be pretty far down the depth chart on most NHL teams regardless. Also like I argued above the chance to learn / get better under Luongo / Allaire is too good to pass up. Personally am happy he found a home, have a soft spot for late bloomers

 

[hbk]

Source? You may be right but forgive me if I'm hesitant to believe you based on his stats.

More importantly how many of the other teams have Francois Allaire / Luongo (or equivalent) running their goalie training? Personally to me that would matter much more (esp since he's only played in the OHL so far). At 21 I would think that getting better matters quite a bit. Either way no matter where he goes, due to his age / experience he's starting out below #2 on the depth chart regardless meaning actually improving should be a priority I would think

EDIT: Nevermind found a TSN article
Guzda keeps focus as NHL teams come calling - TSN.ca

Still think that as an overager dominating the OHL he's still be pretty far down the depth chart on most NHL teams regardless. Also like I argued above the chance to learn / get better under Luongo / Allaire is too good to pass up. Personally am happy he found a home, have a soft spot for late bloomers

you can understand though why some may conclude that Knight may be made available at some point.

 

[PainForShane]

you can understand though why some may conclude that Knight may be made available at some point.

Looks like you didn't see my edit before posting. Thanks posting Marek's tweet though. Anyway found this on one of the Florida fan blogs:

full article Rocky Top: Florida Panthers sign top junior goalie Mack Guzda to ELC

"Guzda credited the culture he felt around the Florida organization as well as the team’s goalie department — which includes Luongo, Francois Allare, Robb Tallas and Leo Luongo — for being reasons why he chose the Panthers.

Guzda said speaking with Roberto Luongo was a thrill as that was a player he “grew up watching.”

“I had some really good conversations with their staff and I have been to development camp in Florida and have a good feel for their culture,” he said.

“I worked with their goalie coaches and everything in my time there made me feel like I was at home. I had a really good feel when I was there and had some really good conversations over the past week. I am really excited about the opportunity.”

Lmk if you still have qs about why he signed w Florida, this rationale makes to me. Furthermore even if teams are interested in signing you to an ELC that doesn't necessarily mean you have a clear path to the show (see any late round draft pick) -- and imo an overager dominating the OHL is not facing competition anywhere near NHL level

 

[hbk]

Looks like you didn't see my edit before posting. Thanks posting Marek's tweet though. Anyway found this on one of the Florida fan blogs:

full article Rocky Top: Florida Panthers sign top junior goalie Mack Guzda to ELC

"Guzda credited the culture he felt around the Florida organization as well as the team’s goalie department — which includes Luongo, Francois Allare, Robb Tallas and Leo Luongo — for being reasons why he chose the Panthers.

Guzda said speaking with Roberto Luongo was a thrill as that was a player he “grew up watching.”

“I had some really good conversations with their staff and I have been to development camp in Florida and have a good feel for their culture,” he said.

“I worked with their goalie coaches and everything in my time there made me feel like I was at home. I had a really good feel when I was there and had some really good conversations over the past week. I am really excited about the opportunity.”

Lmk if you still have qs about why he signed w Florida, this rationale makes to me. Furthermore even if teams are interested in signing you to an ELC that doesn't necessarily mean you have a clear path to the show (see any late round draft pick) -- and imo an overager dominating the OHL is not facing competition anywhere near NHL level

Im not discounting the culture. It likely factored in more than i originally thought. That being said my thesis that the journey to the NhL is harder in Florida than many if not all of the other teams involved is a valid one. Maybe it doesn’t matter but i do believe that some reassurances would have had to have been provided. Something to watch for.

 

[PainForShane]

Im not discounting the culture. It likely factored in more than i originally thought. That being said my thesis that the journey to the NhL is harder in Florida than many if not all of the other teams involved is a valid one. Maybe it doesn’t matter but i do believe that some reassurances would have had to have been provided. Something to watch for.

Yes, in terms of leapfrogging other players maybe making the NHL from Florida might be a tougher challenge, but it's difficult enough to make the show wherever you go. Personally I would be very surprised if he got reassurances, Guzda hasn't done enough yet to merit that.

Imo the more important thing to consider is almost all good 21 year old prospects are signed. Based on these articles Guzda might have been one of the best unsigned goalies. But where does he fit in various orgs' depth charts? Just because there's interest doesn't mean the teams were immediately going to make him their starting AHL goaltender.

Put a different way if we had signed him instead would we be playing him in Tucson ahead of Prosvetov or even Korenar? Maybe about the same as Korenar but I doubt we play him over Prosvetov. And since he's starting out down the depth chart no matter where he goes, making the NHL is a fight and certainly not guaranteed. But at least in Florida he'll have Luongo / Allaire running the goalie coaching so his game should get better with time. And then his chances increase as he becomes a better goalie.

Anyway still far too early to call him insurance for Knight, timing is not even close in my opinion. This is Florida making a smart minor league UFA signing, we'll see if it pays off down the road

 

[hbk]

Yes, in terms of leapfrogging other players maybe making the NHL from Florida might be a tougher challenge, but it's difficult enough to make the show wherever you go. Personally I would be very surprised if he got reassurances, Guzda hasn't done enough yet to merit that.

Imo the more important thing to consider is almost all good 21 year old prospects are signed. Based on these articles Guzda might have been one of the best unsigned goalies. But where does he fit in various orgs' depth charts? Just because there's interest doesn't mean the teams were immediately going to make him their starting AHL goaltender.

Put a different way if we had signed him instead would we be playing him in Tucson ahead of Prosvetov or even Korenar? Maybe about the same as Korenar but I doubt we play him over Prosvetov. And since he's starting out down the depth chart no matter where he goes, making the NHL is a fight and certainly not guaranteed. But at least in Florida he'll have Luongo / Allaire running the goalie coaching so his game should get better with time. And then his chances increase as he becomes a better goalie.

Anyway still far too early to call him insurance for Knight, timing is not even close in my opinion. This is Florida making a smart minor league UFA signing, we'll see if it pays off down the road

We signed free agent 18 year old G Anson Thornton out of training camp. Part of the attraction was the lack of an established tandem blocking him from a future NHL job.

if you followed AZ the only legitimate prospect we have is Prosvetov. Korenar was a throw in to ensure we had a goalie to expose in the expansion draft. Nobody here believes he’s anything but a warm body. Veggie came out of nowhere to become a NHL goalie this year. He had an opportunity here that he likely wouldn’t have got elsewhere. He legitimately stole a NHL spot and arguably is our #1.

 

[PainForShane]

We signed free agent 18 year old G Anson Thornton out of training camp. Part of the attraction was the lack of an established tandem blocking him from a future NHL job.

if you followed AZ the only legitimate prospect we have is Prosvetov. Korenar was a throw in to ensure we had a goalie to expose in the expansion draft. Nobody here believes he’s anything but a warm body. Veggie came out of nowhere to become a NHL goalie this year. He had an opportunity here that he likely wouldn’t have got elsewhere. He legitimately stole a NHL spot and arguably is our #1.

Absolutely. But do you think that a back-to-back OHL goaltender of the month has shown enough to demand a clear path to the NHL with whoever he signs with? Again he's 21 and hasn't even played in the AHL yet

 

[hbk]

Absolutely. But do you think that a back-to-back OHL goaltender of the month has shown enough to demand a clear path to the NHL with whoever he signs with? Again he hasn't played in the AHL yet

I think you are taking what im saying and going to the extreme. There is a difference between demanding that in x years they will be in the show and providing reassurance that you will remove roadblocks on the main roster if you accomplish x, y, and z. Its not a next day or next year plan. Its a multi year development plan that involves movement at some point on the main roster. We know Bob isn’t being dealt so that leaves Knight.

For Knight to be moved now they would need a capable backup coming in. Is Wedgie good enough? I’m not sold on that and i doubt Florida would be either. That being said Wedgie is someone who isn’t going to stand in the way of a developing netminder down the road.

 

[PainForShane]

I think you are taking what im saying and going to the extreme. There is a difference between demanding that in x years they will be in the show and providing reassurance that you will remove roadblocks on the main roster if you accomplish x, y, and z.

Fair enough -- I'm not trying to be a jerk about this, if I'm coming across that way that's on me and I apologize.

To me though "removing roadblocks on the main roster if I accomplish xyz" is pretty close to demanding a spot honestly. E.g., saying something like, "hey Florida I'll sign with you if you let me know you'll trade Spencer Knight or Bob if I end up being good" seems extremely brazen for an undrafted 21 year old -- instead saying something like "hey Florida if I sign with you I want to have periodic check-ins with Francois Allaire and / or Luongo" is more likely and probably has more value for him anyway.

To your point about this maybe being insurance for Knight, agree that's what Florida is hoping for but he's still a few leagues away from the NHL so imo far too early to tell. Also FLA is hoping for the same thing from every single other goalie in their pipeline so...

Anyway a smart minor league signing but I feel weird looking into it more than that because all Guzda has done is dominate the OHL for two months as an overager. Sure it's possible he's currently good enough to be competent at the NHL level but imo not nearly an impressive enough track record yet, we'll see what happens in the future as he plays more games w tougher competition

EDIT: I missed your edit (for some reason when I responded your entire message was what I quoted above, I guess I didn't refresh the page). Still think it's unlikely for a 21 yo goalie to be like, "hey if I'm good you need to trade other players so I get a shot at the show" whether it's Knight or Vejmelka I still think it's a ridiculous ask. I guess it's possible but I'd be very surprised.

But, if you think FLA is confident enough in this new guy to be more comfortable trading Knight, then sure, who really knows. Agree with you that this would be a multi-year solution which gives Guzda time to develop further, imo far too early to say he's a capable NHL backup at this time. At the very least we should see what Guzda can do in a couple years in the AHL at a minimum

 

[PainForShane]

Apologies everyone for hijacking the thread -- if you want to continue discuss the Chychrun trade please continue

 

[rt]

I hope that you guys decided that we weren’t trading Chychrun for a goalie.