Confirmed with Link: Chris Terry re-signed: one-year, one-way $875,000

[CandyCanes]

semin looks really different in that web pic

This is the photoshopped version of Semin, in order to achieve this Semin you must use the Russian stubbornness eraser brush in Photoshop CS6 to achieve this result.

 

[What the Faulk]

Well he could just regress to his lifetime shooting % average of 14.1, still the highest on the team by a long shot.

Or maybe he is Gerbe's replacement, he of the lifetime 6.2% shooting percentage.

And those lamenting Terry's skating aren't paying attention. He's improved each of the last three years and is actually quite passable now. He's not a liability in his own zone, thinks the game well, and is a very good passer. He looks to be a 3rd line scoring option, which likely means that Gerbe is indeed expendable. I'd trade him in a heartbeat (and I love his heart and grit).

That's still just over 70 games. Unless he's got one of the elite shots in the game, players simply just don't shoot that well over any sort of extended period of time. I realize that he was sorta effective on the powerplay (3 is more than 0 but half as many as Tlusty had), but they all came on similar plays. We saw Justin Faulk score a bunch on that same backdoor play one year, then the next it was shut down almost entirely. I don't think he's some sort of PP specialist any more than Jeff Hamilton was that one year. Also, the difference is that Gerbe piles up the shots while Terry simply doesn't. If he regresses, he will score more. If Terry does (though we obviously don't know what his true shooting % is), chances are, he'll score less unless he plays well enough to generate more shots.

I don't mind him getting a chance to earn a spot. But to just get handed one based on some good fortune in one year? Bad teams are bad because they pay for past performances instead of projecting how a player will do next year.

 

[Francis10]

What the Faulk, your response got me thinking.....what really is the difference between Chris Terry and Tlusty? Put Terry on a line with motivated EStaal and Semin all that time ago, he may of put up 40 points.

 

[Ole Gil]

When (terry was) playing with Rask, they had a 57 CF%, and 68 GF% for 216 minutes, with a 3.05 GF60.

Looks like it might have been Gerbe/Rask/Terry that tore it up when they were on the ice as a group, guessing from the TOI stats.

Staal-Staal-Lindholm
Skinner-Nash?-Semin
Gerbe-Rask-Terry
Malone-McClement-Dwyer

I'd say Nestrasil takes the spot of whoever leaves the top 6 on draft day?

(Terry shot % were 16, 8, 13, and 12 in the AHL. I think his style of game is just one that will tend to have a higher %. Camping out in prime scoring spots rather than being the guy who generates offense on his own and gets a lot of pucks on net)

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I'm prone to attribute that more to Rask's excellence at hockey than Terry's, though.

 

[What the Faulk]

^^ That top six hole is so painful to look at. No matter what you do, it's there.

What the Faulk, your response got me thinking.....what really is the difference between Chris Terry and Tlusty? Put Terry on a line with motivated EStaal and Semin all that time ago, he may of put up 40 points.

A lot, I think. They don't play the same type of game at all. Terry tries to crash the net, but I don't think he's that effective at it. At least, not as much as Tlusty. Tlusty has a better two-way game and is a better skater. Tlusty isn't worth what he's likely to command though, so I'm not terribly sad he's gone.

 

[Francis10]

If none of the young kids (Tolchinsky, McGinn) make the jump, I would go:

Staal-Staal-Nestrasil
Skinner-Lindholm-Semin
Gerbe-Rask-Terry
Malone-McClement-Dwyer

Nash could slot in on 4th line for Malone or Dwyer.

 

[RodTheBawd]

A lot, I think. They don't play the same type of game at all. Terry tries to crash the net, but I don't think he's that effective at it. At least, not as much as Tlusty. Tlusty has a better two-way game and is a better skater. Tlusty isn't worth what he's likely to command though, so I'm not terribly sad he's gone.

Plus board play. Tlusty didn't mind going to dirty areas and was relatively successful. Terry seemed to float in the circles a lot, and as WTF mentioned, ineffectively try to go to the net occasionally.

 

[Ole Gil]

5 of the top 6 are certainly capable of being top 6 players. It's just we have no idea what to expect from any of them.

 

[NotOpie]

That's still just over 70 games. Unless he's got one of the elite shots in the game, players simply just don't shoot that well over any sort of extended period of time. I realize that he was sorta effective on the powerplay (3 is more than 0 but half as many as Tlusty had), but they all came on similar plays. We saw Justin Faulk score a bunch on that same backdoor play one year, then the next it was shut down almost entirely. I don't think he's some sort of PP specialist any more than Jeff Hamilton was that one year. Also, the difference is that Gerbe piles up the shots while Terry simply doesn't. If he regresses, he will score more. If Terry does (though we obviously don't know what his true shooting % is), chances are, he'll score less unless he plays well enough to generate more shots.

I don't mind him getting a chance to earn a spot. But to just get handed one based on some good fortune in one year? Bad teams are bad because they pay for past performances instead of projecting how a player will do next year.

So throughout his career Nathan Gerbe has sported a terrible shooting percentage. He is almost the new Char, more often than not flinging the puck squarely into the chest protector. Chris Terry, on the other hand has sported a rather high shooting % throughout his playing days. Going back to 2010-11 up to the present his shooting % has been:

10-11 - 16.0% on 213 shots
11-12 - 8.0% on 201 shots
12-13 - 13.4% on 186 shots
13-14 - 12.2% on 230 shots
14-14 - 15.5% on 71 shots

I didn't include the 11 NHL games prior to this year but they would have had a statistically minimal effect on the outcomes. NHL.com also didn't have his shot totals for the 09-10 season with Albany.

By any objective measure the kid has significantly above league average shooting accuracy. In addition Terry's TOI was over 2 minutes per game less and he even had less average PP TOI. I'm happy to entertain arguments about Gerbe's grit and speed making him equal to or of more value than Terry. He did average over a minute of PK per game. But there is just no comparison offensively. Terry is currently and will likely be a significantly superior scorer. That is a skill that is difficult to find, missing from the Canes team, and harder to find than what Gerbe brings to the table.

So if I sound a bit like a Chris Terry homer it is less that than the fact that I think he's worked hard, earned his shot, continued to work once he got it, and will likely continue to improve and surprise.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

So throughout his career Nathan Gerbe has sported a terrible shooting percentage. He is almost the new Char, more often than not flinging the puck squarely into the chest protector. Chris Terry, on the other hand has sported a rather high shooting % throughout his playing days. Going back to 2010-11 up to the present his shooting % has been:

10-11 - 16.0% on 213 shots
11-12 - 8.0% on 201 shots
12-13 - 13.4% on 186 shots
13-14 - 12.2% on 230 shots
14-14 - 15.5% on 71 shots

I didn't include the 11 NHL games prior to this year but they would have had a statistically minimal effect on the outcomes. NHL.com also didn't have his shot totals for the 09-10 season with Albany.

By any objective measure the kid has significantly above league average shooting accuracy. In addition Terry's TOI was over 2 minutes per game less and he even had less average PP TOI. I'm happy to entertain arguments about Gerbe's grit and speed making him equal to or of more value than Terry. He did average over a minute of PK per game. But there is just no comparison offensively. Terry is currently and will likely be a significantly superior scorer. That is a skill that is difficult to find, missing from the Canes team, and harder to find than what Gerbe brings to the table.

So if I sound a bit like a Chris Terry homer it is less that than the fact that I think he's worked hard, earned his shot, continued to work once he got it, and will likely continue to improve and surprise.

those numbers are against AHL goalies

going by this logic, drew macintyre and john muse both had superior save percentages to cam ward and anton khudobin this season and thus should replace them.

gerbe had an 11.0% shooting percentage in the AHL and that has dropped to just 6.2 in the NHL

 

[What the Faulk]

You can't just take AHL numbers and apply them to the NHL like they will translate 100%, otherwise Zach Boychuk would be a 30 goal scorer. He needs to generate shots otherwise his numbers will fall.

But, to entertain this, his simple average is about 13%, and that's without weighing in the shot totals (which favor him, significantly). On 71 shots, that's 9 goals. Now weigh it, and realize that the NHL is a different animal, and he's unlikely to sustain anywhere close to that, and you can pretty quickly see that it doesn't matter if he's not generating shots.

 

[What the Faulk]

those numbers are against AHL goalies

going by this logic, drew macintyre and john muse both had superior save percentages to cam ward and anton khudobin this season and thus should replace them.

gerbe had an 11.0% shooting percentage in the AHL and that has dropped to just 6.2 in the NHL

Which is too bad because that'd be 26 goals on his 235 shots by Terry-adjusted shooting percentage.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

gerbe's going to break out at any moment

i can feel it

he's less than two years older than terry and had rly great AHL production

soon enough those unscreened bad angle wristers from 30 feet out are going to just start pouring in the net

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I must have missed where everyone became concerned about roster construction for the 2015-16 season. By all accounts it's supposed to be another lost season isn't it?

 

[What the Faulk]

Some think that. Others (myself included) think that some shrewd moves and a bit of luck (for once) could lead to a bubble season. I would hope this team isn't going into October thinking "**** it, who cares who we ice".

 

[Ole Gil]

I bet the 'shot chart' thingy would go a long ways in explaining Terry vs. Gerbe in terms of shooting %.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I bet the 'shot chart' thingy would go a long ways in explaining Terry vs. Gerbe in terms of shooting %.

I don't think you need that. I think you can just watch Gerbe launch floating wristers from the boards all season to understand the difference in shooting %.

 

[What the Faulk]

I can't get Terry's to work (if anyone else wants to try, go here), but yeah, Gerbe's is pretty much what you'd expect.

(This is just 2014-15)

 

[NotOpie]

You can't just take AHL numbers and apply them to the NHL like they will translate 100%, otherwise Zach Boychuk would be a 30 goal scorer. He needs to generate shots otherwise his numbers will fall.

But, to entertain this, his simple average is about 13%, and that's without weighing in the shot totals (which favor him, significantly). On 71 shots, that's 9 goals. Now weigh it, and realize that the NHL is a different animal, and he's unlikely to sustain anywhere close to that, and you can pretty quickly see that it doesn't matter if he's not generating shots.

The point that was being made was that last year was a fluke for Terry. The fact was it wasn't a fluke as he's been a sniper his whole career. When he was going against AHL goalies he was an AHL player - same age, same overall talent levels. The bigger point is that Terry is a demonstrably better offensive player even with less ice time and less PP time.

I guess I'm not trying to compare their games as much as if I had to choose between the two players for this Hurricanes team, I would choose Terry 10 out of 10 times because the team's offensive needs far outweight the the heart and energy that Gerbe brings (and it's not as if Terry doesn't bring a certain level of heart himself).

 

[What the Faulk]

But my point is that his shooting prowess doesn't matter if he's not generating shots. Just like everyone who ragged on Alex Semin was right in one way. Semin could have the best shot in the world, but if he's not using it (for whatever reason), it doesn't matter. Terry needs to produce more than 71 shots moving forward. He can shoot 20 percent (an absurd number to make my point) but that's still only 14 goals because the volume just isn't there. Gerbe is on the other end of the spectrum, showing that totals are nice, but if they're coming from far out, you're not going to score as much as you could, and your percentage will suffer (this is of course, discounting corsi/possession entirely, which I'm just doing for the sake of argument).

The question becomes, do you think Terry is capable of increasing his shot total while maintaining such a high shooting percentage? Maybe, maybe not. As I said, I don't mind him getting a chance, I just don't like to see him handed a spot on the 3rd line without competing for it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

$300k too high, he wouldn't crack any Playoff team's roster..

Not sure how this is even applicable to Carolina this coming season.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not fond of how much he's getting paid, but it's a drop in the bucket and honestly, sometimes we can't see the forest through the trees. If Skinner ($6M), Semin ($7M), Jordan ($6M), Eric ($9.25M) and Ward ($6.8M) don't perform better than they did last season, it doesn't matter if the team paid Terry a couple hundred thousand more than he probably deserves.

And before someone stays "we could use that extra $300K to pay a defenseman", it's pretty much unrelated IMO. The Canes have to find a defensemen that wants to come here via UFA (which $300K won't be the deciding factor) or have to trade for one (where again, $300k is irrelevant).

 

[NotOpie]

I didi a bit of a math problem on another board and my key point is that Ronnie is likely working with what he has assuming something between a $63 and $66 million budget. So the bottom 6 is going to have to be youngsters getting a chance, journeymen, reclamation projects, and appropriately slotted guys who are good at their lesser jobs (McClement, for ex.).

Assuming no trades of consequence, Ronnie is ultimately going to end up with about $7 - $8 million to sign probalby 5 guys (3 forwards and 2 defenders) which would give us a roster of 22 players. If, for example he resigned Nash, Nestrasil, and Biega was a bottom pairing guy, that would still leave close to $5 or $6 million to sign a top 4 defender and one more forward. How you split that salary up is dependent on whom you sign or trade for.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I like Terry and wish he was developed a little better early on, but you're ****ing nuts if you think he'd deserve a roster spot over Gerbe. One of the few cases where his stats are somewhat irrelevant and those "intangibles" that some of you loathe actually matter.