Proposal: Chris Tanev to the Leafs next offseason

[Bourne Endeavor]

No one is going to give up elite ELC players for 3 years of Tanev. It just isn't going to happen in this cap era.
If he is moved it will most likely be a 1st+good prospect+roster player type deal.

Cool, then we'll keep our 26 year old #2 defenseman. There is literally no reason for us to trade him for anything else than what I proposed. He's young enough to still be in his prime once we begin moving on from the Sedin era. So if we're not improving, it's pointless to discuss trading him.

 

[thefish]

Hey everybody, stop believing the words of TSN or Sportsnet analysts...they are only former NHL players or people that make a living following all aspects of hockey...what do they know??

LondonKendrick's computer is telling us all we need to know!

This is stupid lazy logic that leads to things like signing Clarkson. Or do you think that was a great contract because analysts who 'make a living following hockey' thought it was a great trade.

Playing hockey doesn't mean you can analyze it. It means you can play.

Basing his argument on WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS being seen as 'computer logic' is the dumbest thing I've heard. I'm sorry you remember the time Gardiner fell and looked like a jackass, but you probably don't remember 25 times where he played proper position and forced a dump in or made a pass to clear the zone.

I mean, you know who else has lots of giveaways. Brent Burns. Shea Weber. Drew Doughty. Those guys all must get a lot of criticism from the totally objective analysts too right?

 

[Liferleafer]

This is stupid lazy logic that leads to things like signing Clarkson. Or do you think that was a great contract because analysts who 'make a living following hockey' thought it was a great trade.

Playing hockey doesn't mean you can analyze it. It means you can play.

Basing his argument on WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS being seen as 'computer logic' is the dumbest thing I've heard. I'm sorry you remember the time Gardiner fell and looked like a jackass, but you probably don't remember 25 times where he played proper position and forced a dump in or made a pass to clear the zone.

I mean, you know who else has lots of giveaways. Brent Burns. Shea Weber. Drew Doughty. Those guys all must get a lot of criticism from the totally objective analysts too right?

Jesus Christ, why does everyone think i hate Gardiner?? just because i said Tanev was a better player doesn't mean i think Gardiner is a bad one. Whatever, our defense is great! No need for upgrades at all!! Not sure why we are losing....but whatever!! Analytics!!

I mean seriously, go back through this whole dam thread and point out where i spoke to Gardiner making giveaways, or falling down...all i have said was that he has 2 brainfarts per game. That's not stating he is a terrible player....i just said that Tanev is a better "defense"man.

 

[LondonKendrick]

"I'm not an analytics nerd...."

"I've listed facts and charts...."

Could have fooled me. And no, i can't list anything more compelling than stating what i actually see....pretty hard to make a better argument. I mean i suppose i could check out a few blogs and post their opinions....would that help?

Again, not sure why you want to argue about Tanev/Gardiner. The point is to add to what we already have....we aren't trading Gardiner for him.

Oh....and maybe you should tell everyone how i typed Cup instead of Championship again....it should really help push you over the top.

What's bugging you so much? The fact that someone doesn't rely on charts? The fact that I am objective enough to say that IMO there are players that may be better than Leaf players? I know this question will drive you nuts, but have you actually watched Tanev play?

So you're not going to post Tanev vs Gardiner's giveaways? That would be definitive proof of their 'brain farts'....

So which is it, you've never seen an intermission or better we kneel to the authority of sports media hacks? That's not an argument it's an opinion, everyone has them how is it that you can articulate or support that opinion is the reason message boards exists.

You watch the game and have an opinion, one that happens to be a carbon copy of some media hacks. One that doesn't hold up after looking at the numbers, not just advanced stats but all the tried and true ones.

Maybe we should sell the farm if Rielly finds a good partner in an allstar game. Oh btw, the proper way to handle a 'typo' is simply to say, my bad, I meant Championship but you never account for the short comings of what you say, you just bulldoze through each post.

What's 'bugging me so much'? I'm amused that you dismiss reality and no, I've never seen Tanev play? Again, only you watch hockey?

To you it's 'charts and facts' to the hockey literate it's possession (the most important thing for a defenseman) and defense...

As far as those 'charts' you belittle, they actually make a good case for Rielly/Tanev pair as they fit to mask each others weaknesses, Tanev would be an ideal partner for Rielly but to suggest Tanev is better than Gardiner? It's simply not true. Gardiner has more tools in his skill set and is better or at the very least equal to what Tanev does well.

 

[BB6]

So you're not going to post Tanev vs Gardiner's giveaways? That would be definitive proof of their 'brain farts'....

So which is it, you've never seen an intermission or better we kneel to the authority of sports media hacks? That's not an argument it's an opinion, everyone has them how is it that you can articulate or support that opinion is the reason message boards exists.

You watch the game and have an opinion, one that happens to be a carbon copy of some media hacks. One that doesn't hold up after looking at the numbers, not just advanced stats but all the tried and true ones.

Maybe we should sell the farm if Rielly finds a good partner in an allstar game. Oh btw, the proper way to handle a 'typo' is simply to say, my bad, I mean Championship but you never account for the short comings of what you say, you just bulldoze through the shallows.

What's 'bugging me so much'? I'm amused that you dismiss reality and no, I've never seen Tanev play? Again, only you watch hockey?

To you it's 'charts and facts' to the hockey literate it's possession (the most important thing for a defenseman) and defense...

This argument has been played out so many times, heres some posts to go over.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118695421&postcount=168

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118741857&postcount=221

 

[Liferleafer]

So you're not going to post Tanev vs Gardiner's giveaways? That would be definitive proof of their 'brain farts'....

So which is it, you've never seen an intermission or better we kneel to the authority of sports media hacks? That's not an argument it's an opinion, everyone has them how is it that you can articulate or support that opinion is the reason message boards exists.

You watch the game and have an opinion, one that happens to be a carbon copy of some media hacks. One that doesn't hold up after looking at the numbers, not just advanced stats but all the tried and true ones.

Maybe we should sell the farm if Rielly finds a good partner in an allstar game. Oh btw, the proper way to handle a 'typo' is simply to say, my bad, I mean Championship but you never account for the short comings of what you say, you just bulldoze through the shallows.

What's 'bugging me so much'? I'm amused that you dismiss reality and no, I've never seen Tanev play? Again, only you watch hockey?

To you it's 'charts and facts' to the hockey literate it's possession (the most important thing for a defenseman) and defense...

As far as those 'charts' you belittle, they actually make a good case for Rielly/Tanev pair as they fit to mask each others weaknesses, Tanev would be an ideal partner for Rielly but to suggest Tanev is better than Gardiner? It's simply not true. Gardiner has more tools in his skill set and is better or at the very least equal to what Tanev does well.

Lol, let it go. You win, you're absolutely right. Gardiner is freaking amazing...truly the reason we are so high in the standings. I am no smart. I is not ed oo kated.

Yes, Tanev is a perfect compliment to Rielly, why? Because he plays excellent defense! Rielly is an offensive Dman and as such, needs a Tanev style player. If Gardiner is better than Tanev, why the Hell isn't he playing with Rielly as Mo can play either side? It's because Gardiner is ALSO an offensive Dman...he's good at it, but Tanev plays better DEFENSE. Don't take my useless old ass opinion, make a pole...which plays better DEFENSE? Gardiner or Tanev?

 

[Liferleafer]

This argument has been played out so many times, heres some posts to go over.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118695421&postcount=168

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118741857&postcount=221

I will say Thanks....and the one link was in response to my post. I will openly admit, i know jack squat about advanced stats, and i have no intention of using them to gauge the talent of an athlete. There are just to many variables involved to make them accurate enough to base concrete conclusions on. My reasoning? People keep telling me how playerX is better than playerY because of Corsi...or WOWY...or Hero charts. Yet playerY continually seems to be more successful than playerX.

Maybe somebody can help me out here, are advanced stats not based in mathematical probabilities? Because it's been in my life experience that probabilities are just that, a chance that something could happen. When you add the human factor to any calculation, it makes those probabilities more of a random generator. Anything can happen during a game that isn't in player X's control, yet it will have an effect on his stats. And again, this is coming from a guy who has worked in the science field, and hasn't studied advanced stats relating to sport....so i may be way off here.

 

[zeke]

Jesus people overrate the living **** out of Kapanen lol

How do you figure?

He's a first round pick with a complete skillset - speed, hands, shot, grit, compete - who's putting up a PPG in the AHL at age 20.

He's an excellent prospect.

A guy like Tanev does not get a Nylander or Marner in return.

 

[zeke]

Do you see your management group seeing Jake as a core piece in their top 4 for a Stanley cup run when they are competitive? Be honest. Do you also believe they will sign him to a long term deal for big money after his current deal is up? Be honest

Jake would be in the 2nd tier "core" on a cup contender, right where a guy like Tanev would be.

As for whether you re-sign him, that depends on the price.

 

[Liferleafer]

How do you figure?

He's a first round pick with a complete skillset - speed, hands, shot, grit, compete - who's putting up a PPG in the AHL at age 20.

He's an excellent prospect.

A guy like Tanev does not get a Nylander or Marner in return.

This I agree with.

 

[BB6]

I will say Thanks....and the one link was in response to my post. I will openly admit, i know jack squat about advanced stats, and i have no intention of using them to gauge the talent of an athlete. There are just to many variables involved to make them accurate enough to base concrete conclusions on. My reasoning? People keep telling me how playerX is better than playerY because of Corsi...or WOWY...or Hero charts. Yet playerY continually seems to be more successful than playerX.

Maybe somebody can help me out here, are advanced stats not based in mathematical probabilities? Because it's been in my life experience that probabilities are just that, a chance that something could happen. When you add the human factor to any calculation, it makes those probabilities more of a random generator. Anything can happen during a game that isn't in player X's control, yet it will have an effect on his stats. And again, this is coming from a guy who has worked in the science field, and hasn't studied advanced stats relating to sport....so i may be way off here.

I don't know enough about advanced stats honestly, one of the things I do know is that hero charts are a **** poor way of gauging someone because they don't tell the whole story. The numbers used in the stats aren't projections, its more what happened. I'd love to know where I can find literally all the advanced stats and I'd love for someone to teach me all about it but its a big ask.

Wish I could help, let me know if you figure it out, I'd love to know too lol

 

[LondonKendrick]

Lol, let it go. You win, you're absolutely right. Gardiner is freaking amazing...truly the reason we are so high in the standings. I am no smart. I is not ed oo kated.

Yes, Tanev is a perfect compliment to Rielly, why? Because he plays excellent defense! Rielly is an offensive Dman and as such, needs a Tanev style player. If Gardiner is better than Tanev, why the Hell isn't he playing with Rielly as Mo can play either side? It's because Gardiner is ALSO an offensive Dman...he's good at it, but Tanev plays better DEFENSE. Don't take my useless old ass opinion, make a pole...which plays better DEFENSE? Gardiner or Tanev?

Thought I had fixed that typo, oh well my bad.

As I've already said in this thread the Leafs blueline is too thin to split Gardiner and Rielly so they don't play together. They're both LHD so by no means are they ideal pairs. I've also said that half of Tanev's value to the Leafs lies in the fact that he's a RHD. But you actually read what I post and already knew that right?

Gardiner is a defensive liability because a rebuilding team isn't high in the standings?

This argument has been played out so many times, heres some posts to go over.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118695421&postcount=168

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118741857&postcount=221

I'll admit this is a bit deeper into my knowledge of advanced stats, like I said not a huge advanced stats nerd.

First link, I'll play the man not the puck on this one, a user that has a history IMO of manipulate exchanges with an aggressively anti-Leaf bias, so a post out of context, that doesn't include links to the stats cited in the post, I'll take with a grain of salt to say the least. As for the puck, players don't just get different offensive and defensive zone starts it's a reflection of their skill set for their coach to put them there. Are we to dismiss Jake producing better offense his whole career? Taking someone else's post is fine when you put it in context and the original post links to the advanced stats they claim. Can't find 2016 QoC stats at the moment, Babcock has been putting Gardiner out more this season against better competition from the eye test but clearly that open to criticism.

As for the second link, they're comparing Rielly and Tanev not Gardiner and Tanev, I've been harsh in my criticism of Rielly's defensive game. How is that link relevant to the discussion? Pretty lazy.

 

[zeke]

I'm not exactly sure where Canucks fans get off insulting the Leafs' defense corps as if it stinks and desperately needs one of the canucks' awesome dmen to improve.

Canucks pretty much play a trap game and still give up more goals than the leafs do.

 

[canwincup]

How do you figure?

He's a first round pick with a complete skillset - speed, hands, shot, grit, compete - who's putting up a PPG in the AHL at age 20.

He's an excellent prospect.

A guy like Tanev does not get a Nylander or Marner in return.

A 'guy' like Tanev got Hall....I agree Tanev isn't worth Marner, but I think Nylander for Tanev is fair.

 

[BB6]

Thought I had fixed that typo, oh well my bad.

As I've already said in this thread the Leafs blueline is too thin to split Gardiner and Rielly so they don't play together. They're both LHD so by no means are they ideal pairs. I've also said that half of Tanev's value to the Leafs lies in the fact that he's a RHD. But you actually read what I post and already knew that right?

Gardiner is a defensive liability because a rebuilding team isn't high in the standings?



I'll admit this is a bit deeper into my knowledge of advanced stats, like I said not a huge advanced stats nerd.

First link, I'll play the man not the puck on this one, a user that has a history IMO of manipulate exchanges with an aggressively anti-Leaf bias, so a post out of context, that doesn't include links to the stats cited in the post, I'll take with a grain of salt to say the least. As for the puck, players don't just get different offensive and defensive zone starts it's a reflection of their skill set for their coach to put them there. Are we to dismiss Jake producing better offense his whole career? Taking someone else's post is fine when you put it in context and the original post links to the advanced stats they claim. Can't find 2016 QoC stats at the moment, Babcock has been putting Gardiner out more this season against better competition from the eye test but clearly that open to criticism.

As for the second link, they're comparing Rielly and Tanev not Gardiner and Tanev, I've been harsh in my criticism of Rielly's defensive game. How is that link relevant to the discussion? Pretty lazy.

The second link was more about showing how most of us here in this thread don't know much about advanced stats and that theres significantly more to them than hero charts which are greatly lacking context plus a huge amount of information, if you discredit the first link for lack of context of which it has far more than your hero charts than you must discredited those hero charts you've linked. pretty lazy not to see that

 

[Liferleafer]

Thought I had fixed that typo, oh well my bad.

As I've already said in this thread the Leafs blueline is too thin to split Gardiner and Rielly so they don't play together. They're both LHD so by no means are they ideal pairs. I've also said that half of Tanev's value to the Leafs lies in the fact that he's a RHD. But you actually read what I post and already knew that right?

Gardiner is a defensive liability because a rebuilding team isn't high in the standings?



I'll admit this is a bit deeper into my knowledge of advanced stats, like I said not a huge advanced stats nerd.

First link, I'll play the man not the puck on this one, a user that has a history IMO of manipulate exchanges with an aggressively anti-Leaf bias, so a post out of context, that doesn't include links to the stats cited in the post, I'll take with a grain of salt to say the least. As for the puck, players don't just get different offensive and defensive zone starts it's a reflection of their skill set for their coach to put them there. Are we to dismiss Jake producing better offense his whole career? Taking someone else's post is fine when you put it in context and the original post links to the advanced stats they claim. Can't find 2016 QoC stats at the moment, Babcock has been putting Gardiner out more this season against better competition from the eye test but clearly that open to criticism.

As for the second link, they're comparing Rielly and Tanev not Gardiner and Tanev, I've been harsh in my criticism of Rielly's defensive game. How is that link relevant to the discussion? Pretty lazy.

i agree in part, but it's a little deeper than being a RHD for me, because Rielly actually enjoys playing the right side. For me, Tanev's value to the Leafs lies in the style of game he plays. His defense 1st style is perfect as a partner to Rielly or Gardiner....it's why i want him in TO.

 

[LondonKendrick]

The second link was more about showing how most of us here in this thread don't know much about advanced stats and that theres significantly more to them than hero charts which are greatly lacking context plus a huge amount of information, if you discredit the first link for lack of context of which it has far more than your hero charts than you must discredited those hero charts you've linked. pretty lazy not to see that

Fair enough on second, it was post addressing me though?

How did posting zone entries have more context than hero charts though? You make a claim you don't support, still need to put things in context with links to the stats in question.

If you read the thread you'd know that I didn't simply post a hero chart.

 

[Liferleafer]

A 'guy' like Tanev got Hall....I agree Tanev isn't worth Marner, but I think Nylander for Tanev is fair.

And if the Leafs were further along in the rebuild, i may agree. But now is not the time to move a player like Nylander.

 

[BAM]

A 'guy' like Tanev got Hall....I agree Tanev isn't worth Marner, but I think Nylander for Tanev is fair.

Larsson is younger than Tanev and slightly better IMO. Regardless though, pretty much everyone agrees that the Devils won that trade and the only reason the Oilers made that trade is because they desperately needed defense and were widely believed to be signing Lucic.

Just because one team makes a bad trade doesn't mean that sets precedent.

 

[canwincup]

Larsson is younger than Tanev and slightly better IMO. Regardless though, pretty much everyone agrees that the Devils won that trade and the only reason the Oilers made that trade is because they desperately needed defense and were widely believed to be signing Lucic.

Just because one team makes a bad trade doesn't mean that sets precedent.

So Nylander compares to Hall? Didn't know that Nylander holds the same value as Hall, my bad boss.

 

[CherryToke]

I'm not exactly sure where Canucks fans get off insulting the Leafs' defense corps as if it stinks and desperately needs one of the canucks' awesome dmen to improve.

Canucks pretty much play a trap game and still give up more goals than the leafs do.

Canucks fans didn't create this thread but you're right, 22nd in GA isn't that bad. They are close to having a good defence. Some Leafs fans are smart enough to realize that adding Tanev would take them to the next level. And it's not like there is any risk of where Tanev would fit with the Leafs. We had a pretty good preview of what a Rielly-Tanev pairing is capable of at the WC.

 

[Machinehead]

Jake still owns Chris top to bottom

Alright, stop.

This is a problem.

Keep in mind as you read this, that I love Gardiner and I think he's a top pair defenseman.

But here's the problem with HERO charts. They're nothing more than a visual aid - a quick snapshot of the numbers, if you will. A reminder or a refresher. Maybe an idea. They're nothing compared to actually reading the numbers and can be somewhat misleading if you haven't read the numbers.

Think of it this way. Let's say we're picking defensemen on Tinder. All a HERO chart is, is swiping right. There's so much more to do. If you haven't actually read the numbers, you're not even dressed for the date yet.

Let's take for example, the shot suppression bar. Gardiner was 59th in relCA last year (i.e. shot suppression). That's fantastic. That makes him a top pairing defenseman. Tanev on the other hand was 8th in corsi, and 1st in shots on net by a freakin canyon over 2nd place. Overall, he was probably the best shot suppressor in the entire league in 15-16.

59th vs 1st. See how it's actually not even close? But because they're both first pair, they get the exact same little blue bar.

There's your problem with HERO charts. Yes, Gardiner is good. Yes, he's better offensively. Yes, the defensive gap is closer than most people would have you believe. But Chris Tanev is still on a whole nother tier compared to Gardiner defensively.

 

[LondonKendrick]

Alright, stop.

This is a problem.

Keep in mind as you read this, that I love Gardiner and I think he's a top pair defenseman.

But here's the problem with HERO charts. They're nothing more than a visual aid - a quick snapshot of the numbers, if you will. A reminder or a refresher. Maybe an idea. They're nothing compared to actually reading the numbers and can be somewhat misleading if you haven't read the numbers.

Think of it this way. Let's say we're picking defensemen on Tinder. All a HERO chart is, is swiping right. There's so much more to do. If you haven't actually read the numbers, you're not even dressed for the date yet.

Let's take for example, the shot suppression bar. Gardiner was 59th in relCA last year (i.e. shot suppression). That's fantastic. That makes him a top pairing defenseman. Tanev on the other hand was 8th in corsi, and 1st in shots on net by a freakin canyon over 2nd place. Overall, he was probably the best shot suppressor in the entire league in 15-16.

59th vs 1st. See how it's actually not even close? But because they're both first pair, they get the exact same little blue bar.

There's your problem with HERO charts. Yes, Gardiner is good. Yes, he's better offensively. Yes, the defensive gap is closer than most people would have you believe. But Chris Tanev is still on a whole nother tier compared to Gardiner defensively.

Fair enough, I'm not going to posture that I'm an advanced stats genius overall, I like Gardiner a complete defenseman over Tanev.

Care to enlighten me on which is a better possession player?

 

[34]

Heck no! Keep Tanev far far away from Toronto! Cant stand him. I would not offer a 7th in 2020 for Tanev! Awful.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Alright, stop.

This is a problem.

Keep in mind as you read this, that I love Gardiner and I think he's a top pair defenseman.

But here's the problem with HERO charts. They're nothing more than a visual aid - a quick snapshot of the numbers, if you will. A reminder or a refresher. Maybe an idea. They're nothing compared to actually reading the numbers and can be somewhat misleading if you haven't read the numbers.

Think of it this way. Let's say we're picking defensemen on Tinder. All a HERO chart is, is swiping right. There's so much more to do. If you haven't actually read the numbers, you're not even dressed for the date yet.

Let's take for example, the shot suppression bar. Gardiner was 59th in relCA last year (i.e. shot suppression). That's fantastic. That makes him a top pairing defenseman. Tanev on the other hand was 8th in corsi, and 1st in shots on net by a freakin canyon over 2nd place. Overall, he was probably the best shot suppressor in the entire league in 15-16.

59th vs 1st. See how it's actually not even close? But because they're both first pair, they get the exact same little blue bar.

There's your problem with HERO charts. Yes, Gardiner is good. Yes, he's better offensively. Yes, the defensive gap is closer than most people would have you believe. But Chris Tanev is still on a whole nother tier compared to Gardiner defensively.

I agree that HERO charts can be very misleading because they don't give context like QoT, QoC, TOI, zone starts, etc but I believe the bars represent where the player fell in a bell curve of the rest of the league, doesn't just assign the bar by tier even though they do have lines drawn on the bars that indicate what level a player is performing at in each category

Also, which Corsi stat are you showing Tanev being #1 in? I've looked at CA/60, CF%, CARel/60, CF%Rel and can't find one with Tanev on top

Not questioning that Tanev is an elite shot suppressor, just can't find what you're looking at