Player Discussion Chris Kreider: Part III

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[Blue Blooded]

Scores and drives play at a first line rate, but received middle-six TOI under AV. Let's see what he can do under Quinn.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

No @Edge i'm completely sober. People have unrealistic expectations of Kreider just because he's big, strong and skates like the wind. Fact is he's been a top line winger for 5+ years now and his underlying metrics are excellent... I'm Confident saying he was a top 10 LW at some Point.

 

[DanielBrassard]

No @Edge i'm completely sober. People have unrealistic expectations of Kreider just because he's big, strong and skates like the wind. Fact is he's been a top line winger for 5+ years now and his underlying metrics are excellent... I'm Confident saying he was a top 10 LW at some Point.

It's a good point. Too often people are judging Kreider based on what he was expected to be instead of what he actually is, and from that POV he might seem like a dissapointment. But in reality he has been an excellent LW his entire career, and you could definitely make the case he is a top 10-15 LW in the league, which is fantastic. Like Blue Blooded said and others have also touched on, it will be interesting to see how much ice time he gets and if he does, we will likely see him live up to what his expectations were when he was first coming up.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Also, why are people expecting someone who barely broke PPG in his junior year of college to become a 40-goal scorer? I think Kreider has turned out better than anyone could expect!

 

[Edge]

No @Edge i'm completely sober. People have unrealistic expectations of Kreider just because he's big, strong and skates like the wind. Fact is he's been a top line winger for 5+ years now and his underlying metrics are excellent... I'm Confident saying he was a top 10 LW at some Point.

Okay.

So if he drives plays, and has excellent underlying metrics, and hasn't been played like a first line wing because of questionable coaching strategies, what part of the expectations from people do you find particularly unreasonable?

Because at the end of the day, we can't argue it both ways. We can't list all of the virtues you just did, but then say that 30 goals and 60 points is somehow a pie in the sky expectation if a coach is utilizing him properly.

 

[Edge]

Also, why are people expecting someone who barely broke PPG in his junior year of college to become a 40-goal scorer? I think Kreider has turned out better than anyone could expect!

I don't know if I've ever seen the vast majority of people expect 40 goals, and that's going back 7 years now.

To me that's an exaggeration, or at the very least, purposefully choosing the outliers to try to refute the expectations of the vast majority of people, some of whom you might disagree with.

 

[lilphildub]

Also, why are people expecting someone who barely broke PPG in his junior year of college to become a 40-goal scorer? I think Kreider has turned out better than anyone could expect!

I think the lack of picks and prospects made people unrealistically hype him beyond his potential. I think he'll be a consistent 25-25 as long as he stays healthy with a season here or there closing in on 60 points. I think Quinn is going to rely on the top line heavily and he'll get his ice time this year. I'm excited

 

[Edge]

It's a good point. Too often people are judging Kreider based on what he was expected to be instead of what he actually is, and from that POV he might seem like a dissapointment. But in reality he has been an excellent LW his entire career, and you could definitely make the case he is a top 10-15 LW in the league, which is fantastic. Like Blue Blooded said and others have also touched on, it will be interesting to see how much ice time he gets and if he does, we will likely see him live up to what his expectations were when he was first coming up.

And here's the thing, that's what a lot of people are hoping/expecting. He gets the ice time, and the strengths that we've talked about manifest themselves.

However, if the ice time and utilization is there, there's no way to avoid those expectations either.

I think most reasonable people are willing to say, "let's see what we've got in a new system, and with better deployment." But if that happens, and people see more of the same, that argument isn't going to last too long.

Just a fair warning.

 

[nyr2k2]

I don't know if I've ever seen the vast majority of people expect 40 goals, and that's going back 7 years now.

To me that's an exaggeration, or at the very least, purposefully choosing the outliers to try to refute the expectations of the vast majority of people, some of whom you might disagree with.

Yup. I remember the hot comp for Kreider was always Erik Cole, which actually ended up being fairly accurate.

The 40 goals with Kreider, I do remember there being discussion of that as recently as a few years ago, but that was more in the sense of, "If he could put it all together he could score 40." But then people realized that he had pretty much put it all together and that this is what he is and likely will be.

I could see him hit 35 in a career year. 40 would have to be one of those monster career years like Graves hitting 50+, where you outscore your regular top-end production by like 15 goals. Where everything goes right.

 

[DanielBrassard]

And here's the thing, that's what a lot of people are hoping/expecting. He gets the ice time, and the strengths that we've talked about manifest themselves.

However, if the ice time and utilization is there, there's no way to avoid those expectations either.

I think most reasonable people are willing to say, "let's see what we've got in a new system, and with better deployment." But if that happens, and people see more of the same, that argument isn't going to last too long.

Just a fair warning.

More of the same would have Kreider being a good 1st liner at producing at 5v5 and being elite at driving possession. But I don't see any reason why he wouldn't produce better with more minutes.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Okay.

So if he drives plays, and has excellent underlying metrics, and hasn't been played like a first line wing because of questionable coaching strategies, what part of the expectations from people do you find particularly unreasonable?

Because at the end of the day, we can't argue it both ways. We can't list all of the virtues you just did, but then say that 30 goals and 60 points is somehow a pie in the sky expectation if a coach is utilizing him properly.

Agreed, 30-30-60 pace is not a pie in the sky expectation with 1st line and PP1 deployment.

I don't know if I've ever seen the vast majority of people expect 40 goals, and that's going back 7 years now.

To me that's an exaggeration, or at the very least, purposefully choosing the outliers to try to refute the expectations of the vast majority of people, some of whom you might disagree with.

It's an exaggeration, but I just think discourse is a lot more fun with a bit of hyperbole thrown in.

But OTOH, his all situations P/60 over the past three seasons is on par with players like Ryan Johansen, David Krejci, Brayden Point, Vincent Trocheck, Max Pacioretty. A significant improvement over his current level of play would border "40-goal scorer" territory.

I think the lack of picks and prospects made people unrealistically hype him beyond his potential. I think he'll be a consistent 25-25 as long as he stays healthy with a season here or there closing in on 60 points. I think Quinn is going to rely on the top line heavily and he'll get his ice time this year. I'm excited

Agreed.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Yup. I remember the hot comp for Kreider was always Erik Cole, which actually ended up being fairly accurate.

The 40 goals with Kreider, I do remember there being discussion of that as recently as a few years ago, but that was more in the sense of, "If he could put it all together he could score 40." But then people realized that he had pretty much put it all together and that this is what he is and likely will be.

I could see him hit 35 in a career year. 40 would have to be one of those monster career years like Graves hitting 50+, where you outscore your regular top-end production by like 15 goals. Where everything goes right.

Erik Cole is and was always the perfect comp for Kreider's upside.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I want to see how playing at a lighter weight goes for him. He was a freak after returning from the blood clot, and I think that’s our best hope for seeing Kreider flirt with 30-30.

I was pretty pleased with his PK play last night, even if it’s not a role I expect to see him play. While the scoring numbers have been stable, Kreider has become a more well-rounded player each season. The Erik Cole comparisons really do seem spot on.

 

[Edge]

I think most people on here think Kreider is capable of 30/30.

I'm sure there are some who go higher (40 goals), and that's always going to happen. But that 30/30 plateau is what most people gravitate toward.

As a result, when they see 20/20 year-in and year-out, and long stretches of not being engaged, there's going to be push-back.

But let's even play Devil's advocate for the purpose of this conversation. Let's say it's a utilization, system and coaching problem. Let's say the minutes need to be adjusted. Let's say it was a medical issue, and playing better at a lighter weight.

I don't think the expectation shoots past 30/30, especially when the defense of Kreider is he has great underlying numbers and AV didn't know how to maximize his ability. I don't think 30 goals is an unfair expectation and that's going to be the expectation for A LOT of people.

However, and this is a big however, if Quinn removes the restrictor plate and we're still coming in at close to his career levels, people are not going to sit back and nod when presented with underlying stats, and benefits of the doubt.

That's just the reality of situation we now find ourselves in.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I want to see how playing at a lighter weight goes for him. He was a freak after returning from the blood clot, and I think that’s our best hope for seeing Kreider flirt with 30-30.

I was pretty pleased with his PK play last night, even if it’s not a role I expect to see him play. While the scoring numbers have been stable, Kreider has become a more well-rounded player each season. The Erik Cole comparisons really do seem spot on.

Just for context.

Players who scored at roughly the same P/60 as Kreider last year (point totals in parenthesis): Logan Couture (60), Joe Pavelski (65), Brayden Point (66), Matt Duchene (59), Gabriel Landeskog (60). Players like Larkin (61), ROR (61) and Zetterberg (57) scored at significantly lower P/60. Trocheck (75) and Couturier (75) were not ahead by significant amounts.

 

[Edge]

Yup. I remember the hot comp for Kreider was always Erik Cole, which actually ended up being fairly accurate.

The 40 goals with Kreider, I do remember there being discussion of that as recently as a few years ago, but that was more in the sense of, "If he could put it all together he could score 40." But then people realized that he had pretty much put it all together and that this is what he is and likely will be.

I could see him hit 35 in a career year. 40 would have to be one of those monster career years like Graves hitting 50+, where you outscore your regular top-end production by like 15 goals. Where everything goes right.

I also think it's important to note that some of those expectations have been adjusted as the game changes a little.

I think you saw closer to 35 back around 2010, and then that probably came closer to 30 goals by the midway point of the decade.

Personally, I've always felt Kreider is one of those middle ground players. Not as bad as his detractors make him out to be, but not quite at the level his biggest supporters do.

I was a big fan of his selection in 2009 and his play in college. But I've also been on those people who is looking for more of a steady presence from him as well and feel that every year has become "next year" when discussing his abilities.

It seems like there's always something, or some reason that the end product doesn't quite match the sum of its parts. So, once again, here we are in 2018 with the same approach.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I think most people on here think Kreider is capable of 30/30.

I'm sure there are some who go higher (40 goals), and that's always going to happen. But that 30/30 plateau is what most people gravitate toward.

As a result, when they see 20/20 year-in and year-out, and long stretches of not being engaged, there's going to be push-back.

But let's even play Devil's advocate for the purpose of this conversation. Let's say it's a utilization, system and coaching problem. Let's say the minutes need to be adjusted. Let's say it was a medical issue, and playing better at a lighter weight.

I don't think the expectation shoots past 30/30, especially when the defense of Kreider is he has great underlying numbers and AV didn't know how to maximize his ability. I don't think 30 goals is an unfair expectation and that's going to be the expectation for A LOT of people.

However, and this is a big however, if Quinn removes the restrictor plate and we're still coming in at close to his career levels, people are not going to sit back and nod when presented with underlying stats, and benefits of the doubt.

That's just the reality of situation we now find ourselves in.

If Quinn gives Kreider 18-19 minutes/game and it doesn't affect his season totals (or at least per game scoring rate), his underlying stats will per definition not be as good.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Okay.

So if he drives plays, and has excellent underlying metrics, and hasn't been played like a first line wing because of questionable coaching strategies, what part of the expectations from people do you find particularly unreasonable?

Because at the end of the day, we can't argue it both ways. We can't list all of the virtues you just did, but then say that 30 goals and 60 points is somehow a pie in the sky expectation if a coach is utilizing him properly.

I've never said 30+30 is a pie in the sky, what i'm saying is that the people who are disappointed in Kreider and expected him to do more are ignorant because he's been elite or close to elite for like 5 years now.

 

[Edge]

If Quinn gives Kreider 18-19 minutes/game and it doesn't affect his season totals (or at least per game scoring rate), his underlying stats will per definition not be as good.

And that's a reality we might have to face.

Obviously, the hope is that he thrives. Most people on here would be happy if we could have some combination of both worlds. There will still be people who are unhappy, and there will be others who are a little too overjoyed by the results, but most people would probably thrilled if the metrics remained relatively unchanged and the extra minutes produce results that more closely resemble the image some have in their head.

I'd love nothing more than a win-win scenario.

 

[Edge]

I've never said 30+30 is a pie in the sky, what i'm saying is that the people who are disappointed in Kreider and expected him to do more are ignorant because he's been elite or close to elite for like 5 years now.

Like I said, I think if he gets the minutes and the totals are there, the majority of people (from all perspectives) will be happy.

 

[Off Sides]

I remember a similar debate about Benoit Pouliot.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Sort of, but that was done so on a much smaller scale.

Kreider is already way better/more productive than Pouliot ever was.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Just for context.

Players who scored at roughly the same P/60 as Kreider last year (point totals in parenthesis): Logan Couture (60), Joe Pavelski (65), Brayden Point (66), Matt Duchene (59), Gabriel Landeskog (60). Players like Larkin (61), ROR (61) and Zetterberg (57) scored at significantly lower P/60. Trocheck (75) and Couturier (75) were not ahead by significant amounts.

Wow, so they should play him more? #BigIfTrue

 

[Edge]

Wow, so they should play him more? #BigIfTrue

And that would also put him in the level where I think a lot of people would be happy.

The funny thing is that when you cut through all the talk, the majority of the board actually isn't far apart concerning what they'd expect or like to see from Kreider.

What they disagree about is why it isn't happening, or hasn't happened consistently yet.