ChaoticOrange @ AlongTheBoards (Don't you forget about me (Hall) up NOW!)

[LTIR]

Even if we trim Draisaitl down to, say, 3 million, and Yak is around 4, that still puts us at about 41 million used on 7 players at forward, leaving the bottom sixers earning an average of 1.3 million. I'm not sure that's feasible.

I think 5 million is on the low end in goal as well.

When top 7 is this strong you dont need a "legit" 4th line and can get by with 1M players to play 5mins each or specific roles.

If cap really becomes an issue trading away Pouliot (pending UFA) should not be a problem unless his play falls off the deep end. Buyout would be the other option.

I also dont see McDavid commanding 12M unless he leads EDM to SC finals before his ELC expires. We should be able to get him signed for 10M .. Way too many RFA years for him to make 12 ...
Malkin did 5yr 43M contract before signing the 8yr 9.5M one.
Crosby ditto.
Toews did 5 yrs 31.5M contract after ELC and then a 10.5Mx8

I see McDavid getting a 10M x 5yrs deal after ELC.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

You've made me realize one thing for sure - we shouldn't take for granted the unique opportunity we have this year and probably next year. We get to watch the following players on the same team at the same time: McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yakupov, Draisaitl.

It's obviously not going to last forever. We should cherish it while we can.

Solid articles, CO.

Thanks OK. Yeah I don't see that group lasting together past the season after next.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

When top 7 is this strong you dont need a "legit" 4th line and can get by with 1M players to play 5mins each or specific roles.

If cap really becomes an issue trading away Pouliot (pending UFA) should not be a problem unless his play falls off the deep end. Buyout would be the other option.

I also dont see McDavid commanding 12M unless he leads EDM to SC finals before his ELC expires. We should be able to get him signed for 10M .. Way too many RFA years for him to make 12 ...
Malkin did 5yr 43M contract before signing the 8yr 9.5M one.
Crosby ditto.
Toews did 5 yrs 31.5M contract after ELC and then a 10.5Mx8

I see McDavid getting a 10M x 5yrs deal after ELC.

That's why I did the comparable deals as percentages of the cap max as opposed to just the numbers. Crosby and Malkin's deals are equivalent to 11-12 million/year cap hits on today's cap as opposed to the cap when those deals were signed.

 

[Riptide]

Even if we trim Draisaitl down to, say, 3 million, and Yak is around 4, that still puts us at about 41 million used on 7 players at forward, leaving the bottom sixers earning an average of 1.3 million. I'm not sure that's feasible.

I think 5 million is on the low end in goal as well.

I kinda disagreed with this as well. Pittsburgh is paying their top 7 forwards (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Perron, Kunitz, Dupuis) 40.66m, and they've managed to fill out their bottom 6 with one of the deepest forward groups I've seen in a while. The cost of those last 5 forwards? 6.425m. Only one of those players are on an ELC. Bennett was on his 2nd contract while Fehr and Cullen were FA signings.

The only players EDM would need to spend money on would be the #3C. Then use a combination of cheap FA deals (Cullen or Comeau last year as examples) and young players to fill out the rest of the bottom 6. Same goes for the blueline and in net. Spend a little on the #4D and #1G and go cheap with the 3rd pairing and the backup.

Realistically, no Edmonton will not have all of Hall, Eberle, McDavid, RNH, Yakupov, Draisaitl, Nurse, Sekera, Reinhart and Pouliot still on this roster in 3 seasons. But I think only part of the reason will be cap related. I think you'll see something similar to the Neal/Hornqvist trade, where in addition to the team seeing a slight cap savings, they bring in someone who's a little better of a fit or perhaps plays a slightly different style.

Edit.
Just to add to the last paragraph. If in the next two seasons this team hasn't managed to do something, more changes will be happening. Next season I could see them getting a pass if they do not make the playoffs. Still a lot of young players on this roster (CM, LD, OK, DN, GR, AL, NY, etc), and this roster still isn't entirely Chia's yet, and really for the team to have success, it will largely come from those guys above. However the 16/17 roster will be mainly Chia's (with only Fayne, Ference and Hendricks making any money), and if that roster doesn't do something, depending on what happens, I could easily see changes coming then.

 

[Riptide]

When top 7 is this strong you dont need a "legit" 4th line and can get by with 1M players to play 5mins each or specific roles.

If cap really becomes an issue trading away Pouliot (pending UFA) should not be a problem unless his play falls off the deep end. Buyout would be the other option.

I also dont see McDavid commanding 12M unless he leads EDM to SC finals before his ELC expires. We should be able to get him signed for 10M .. Way too many RFA years for him to make 12 ...
Malkin did 5yr 43M contract before signing the 8yr 9.5M one.
Crosby ditto.
Toews did 5 yrs 31.5M contract after ELC and then a 10.5Mx8

I see McDavid getting a 10M x 5yrs deal after ELC.

A couple things here. Toews never topped 70 points in any of his rookie seasons. And the cap was 59.4m in 10/11 when his 2nd contract took effect (10.6%). Crosby is very superstitious, so he liked the 8.7m number (so much so that he ensured that was his cap hit on his 12 yr deal (3rd contract)). So while he's realistically the only player that McDavid could likely use as a comparable, even his contract may not be all that much of a comparable. As for Malkin... there was no chance Pittsburgh was going to pay Malkin more than Crosby. The only reason it happened on their 3rd contracts was because the rules changed - otherwise I could easily have seen Malkin also take the same contract as Crosby.

As for McDavid... I think it will depend on the term of the contract. But if he performs like most think he will, somewhere in the 8-12m sounds about right.

 

[Juxta Position]

A couple things here. Toews never topped 70 points in any of his rookie seasons. And the cap was 59.4m in 10/11 when his 2nd contract took effect (10.6%). Crosby is very superstitious, so he liked the 8.7m number (so much so that he ensured that was his cap hit on his 12 yr deal (3rd contract)). So while he's realistically the only player that McDavid could likely use as a comparable, even his contract may not be all that much of a comparable. As for Malkin... there was no chance Pittsburgh was going to pay Malkin more than Crosby. The only reason it happened on their 3rd contracts was because the rules changed - otherwise I could easily have seen Malkin also take the same contract as Crosby.

As for McDavid... I think it will depend on the term of the contract. But if he performs like most think he will, somewhere in the 8-12m sounds about right.

9.7mil x 8yrs for mcdavid, seems fitting.

 

[McOvechking]

This is also part of the reason the Oilers need to not trade their picks for the next few years. We're going to need competent players on ELCs to help with our cap situation.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I kinda disagreed with this as well. Pittsburgh is paying their top 7 forwards (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Perron, Kunitz, Dupuis) 40.66m, and they've managed to fill out their bottom 6 with one of the deepest forward groups I've seen in a while. The cost of those last 5 forwards? 6.425m. Only one of those players are on an ELC. Bennett was on his 2nd contract while Fehr and Cullen were FA signings.

The only players EDM would need to spend money on would be the #3C. Then use a combination of cheap FA deals (Cullen or Comeau last year as examples) and young players to fill out the rest of the bottom 6. Same goes for the blueline and in net. Spend a little on the #4D and #1G and go cheap with the 3rd pairing and the backup.

Realistically, no Edmonton will not have all of Hall, Eberle, McDavid, RNH, Yakupov, Draisaitl, Nurse, Sekera, Reinhart and Pouliot still on this roster in 3 seasons. But I think only part of the reason will be cap related. I think you'll see something similar to the Neal/Hornqvist trade, where in addition to the team seeing a slight cap savings, they bring in someone who's a little better of a fit or perhaps plays a slightly different style.

Edit.
Just to add to the last paragraph. If in the next two seasons this team hasn't managed to do something, more changes will be happening. Next season I could see them getting a pass if they do not make the playoffs. Still a lot of young players on this roster (CM, LD, OK, DN, GR, AL, NY, etc), and this roster still isn't entirely Chia's yet, and really for the team to have success, it will largely come from those guys above. However the 16/17 roster will be mainly Chia's (with only Fayne, Ference and Hendricks making any money), and if that roster doesn't do something, depending on what happens, I could easily see changes coming then.

Fair points with Pittsburgh, but they're the exception to the rule. The only reason Bennett is so cheap is he's utterly failed to meet expectations. Cullen is older than Methuselah but was a solid pickup at 800k. Pittsburgh's major issue will be their defence - it's injury prone, very young, and in the case of Cole, Lovejoy, and Scuderi, not very good. They're decently deep with a third line of Plotnikov-Bonino-Bennett and whoever-Cullen-Fehr, but that's not going to last past this year. Pittsburgh's prospect pool is also among the absolute worst in the NHL because they constantly trade all their picks away.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

This is also part of the reason the Oilers need to not trade their picks for the next few years. We're going to need competent players on ELCs to help with our cap situation.

Agreed. Unless it's a landslide win situation ie Hamilton we need to hang on to our picks.

I don't expect a bottom 10 finish this year but 11th-16th overall can get you a heck of a nice player.

I think we sell off Scrivens, Purcell, Nikitin at 50% at the deadline for the best picks we can, and stay the course.

Andrew Ladd and one of the high end D available next offseason would be my priorities . Re-sign Talbot if he's got the goods and I have Brossoit pencilled in for backup duty next year.

 

[Riptide]

Fair points with Pittsburgh, but they're the exception to the rule. The only reason Bennett is so cheap is he's utterly failed to meet expectations. Cullen is older than Methuselah but was a solid pickup at 800k. Pittsburgh's major issue will be their defence - it's injury prone, very young, and in the case of Cole, Lovejoy, and Scuderi, not very good. They're decently deep with a third line of Plotnikov-Bonino-Bennett and whoever-Cullen-Fehr, but that's not going to last past this year.

I agree there's some absolute questions and some concern over the D. However IF we can stay healthy, we should be alright. I know it's a big if. And I think Cole will surprise people. He played really well when we needed him to. But it's one of the compromises teams have to make. We've had amazing bluelines and weak forward groups and never had the success we've wanted. So Rutherford decided to go in the other direction. We'll see how well it pays off. But 1 middling pairing D would go a long way to allowing us to have a good enough blueline to contend.

As for the 3rd line... this is exactly what Edmonton will end up with down the road. We have Bonino and Fehr signed past this year, and BB and Plotnikov are still RFAs, and unless they light things up will be pretty cheap next year too. And we have a bunch of young guys who are about ready for 4th line duties after next year as well. But like I said... this will be the same boat EDM will be in in a couple of seasons as they try to juggle paying their young stars. You'll have a constant turn over on a semi yearly basis - which for depth players is fine.

 

[Riptide]

Andrew Ladd and one of the high end D available next offseason would be my priorities . Re-sign Talbot if he's got the goods and I have Brossoit pencilled in for backup duty next year.

Can you afford guys like that? In the short term I know it's not an issue... but no quality FA signed will take a 2 year deal. And signing Ladd to the 5.5m contract he'll likely get, means that there's zero chance of keeping the young guys together.

 

[Bangers]

This is why the team really needs to step up its game in terms of youth development.

In a few years, the team will need to constantly be able to bring in the Slepyshev, Yakimov, Khaira, Chase, Moroz, ... level prospects on the 3rd and 4th lines so that it can stop handing out Gordon-like contracts to bottom 6 players.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

This is why the team really needs to step up its game in terms of youth development.

In a few years, the team will need to constantly be able to bring in the Slepyshev, Yakimov, Khaira, Chase, Moroz, ... level prospects on the 3rd and 4th lines so that it can stop handing out Gordon-like contracts to bottom 6 players.

If this offseason is any indication, Gordon-like contract offers to bottom 6 players could very well be extinct.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Can you afford guys like that? In the short term I know it's not an issue... but no quality FA signed will take a 2 year deal. And signing Ladd to the 5.5m contract he'll likely get, means that there's zero chance of keeping the young guys together.

On top of cap hit issues, the mix up front for the Oilers isn't right, and we've known that for some time. A gritty, tough net front presence would go a LONG way. If we can add a player like Ladd, I think we need to find a way.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

This is why the team really needs to step up its game in terms of youth development.

In a few years, the team will need to constantly be able to bring in the Slepyshev, Yakimov, Khaira, Chase, Moroz, ... level prospects on the 3rd and 4th lines so that it can stop handing out Gordon-like contracts to bottom 6 players.

If this offseason is any indication, Gordon-like contract offers to bottom 6 players could very well be extinct.

Both very good points. Developing quality bottom sixers from within has never been the Oilers strong suit.

I'd be willing to bet that Greg Chase becomes a bottom 6 fixture for the Oil in the future. I love the kid's game.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The Hall article should be up today or tomorrow, featuring a phenomenal photoshop

 

[OilTastic]

Both very good points. Developing quality bottom sixers from within has never been the Oilers strong suit.

I'd be willing to bet that Greg Chase becomes a bottom 6 fixture for the Oil in the future. I love the kid's game.

in my humble opinion, the Oilers have likely solved the problem now of bottom 6 players with guys that have strong potential of playing in the NHL soon in Khaira, Yakimov, as you mentioned Chase, Platzer, Slepyshev and perhaps even guys like Moroz and Kessy, depending on how well those 2 produce this year in the AHL.

interesting read too!

 

[ChaoticOrange]

in my humble opinion, the Oilers have likely solved the problem now of bottom 6 players with guys that have strong potential of playing in the NHL soon in Khaira, Yakimov, as you mentioned Chase, Platzer, Slepyshev and perhaps even guys like Moroz and Kessy, depending on how well those 2 produce this year in the AHL.

interesting read too!

I'm high on Platzer and Slepyshev too. It'll be interesting to see where their development goes. Kessy is a case of 'just look at the prospect, and try not to remember what you gave up'. Kessy had a very good start to last year, too bad he got injured.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

9.7mil x 8yrs for mcdavid, seems fitting.

I don't think McDavid is as superstitious as Crosby

Hall article likely up today!

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Fresh content up today - Don't you forget about me (the Taylor Hall story) is up now.

Do you guys like the articles all together in one thread like this?

Edit: Link might help a bit!

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/08/dont-forget-taylor-hall-story/

 

[shoop]

Fresh content up today - Don't you forget about me (the Taylor Hall story) is up now.

Do you guys like the articles all together in one thread like this?

Hall article is interesting. That is some good photoshop. Gotta be of a certain age to appreciate it.

You mentioned Hall/Yak on-ice issues. Weren't there supposedly off-ice issues between them as well?

Personally I prefer separate threads for each article.

One quibble with the article - you mentioned a Gregor article on Hall at Oilers Nation, but no link. Just sayin'

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Hall article is interesting. That is some good photoshop. Gotta be of a certain age to appreciate it.

You mentioned Hall/Yak on-ice issues. Weren't there supposedly off-ice issues between them as well?

Personally I prefer separate threads for each article.

One quibble with the article - you mentioned a Gregor article on Hall at Oilers Nation, but no link. Just sayin'

The photoshop isn't mine (my concept, but I lacked the talent to make it happen) please contact the creator if anyone would like to use it - I have full permission.

Thanks for the feedback, maybe the next one I'll throw in its own article and see how it does.

I'm not super familiar with the off ice stuff, maybe someone can shed some light.

The link is there but it's ninja for some reason - final edit isn't mine. Just click Gregor's name.

 

[Mr Sakich]

If this offseason is any indication, Gordon-like contract offers to bottom 6 players could very well be extinct.

have we forgotten Brandon Sutter already?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

have we forgotten Brandon Sutter already?

Ehhh I think Sutter's overrated but he's at least a 2/3 tweener.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

What was honestly very interesting to me was how good Thomas Vanek has been over the same stretch of 5 years that Hall has been in the league. I honestly didn't expect that.