GWT: Champions League - Matchweek 6

[Evilo]

Lyon reached the semis too.
But again Juve wouldn't have the best rate. An EPL team would have.

 

[bluesfan94]

There're only 9 teams listed; do you know who the 10th is? Also, I wonder how much of this has to do with the number of teams France gets through to that stage

So looking into it a little more, my guess is that Dortmund or United is 10th. I'm assuming Dortmund.

Looking at the draws, it kinda makes sense. PSG has qualified for the Round of 16 every year since 12/13, so 10 years. They've finished 2nd in their group on four occasions. That accounts for 4 times they faced another top 10 team (14/15, 15/16, 16/17, 21/22). On those occasions, the draw was such that, at best, they only had a 1/3 chance to draw a not-top 10 team.

When they finished first, they had a 50/50 record (3-3) of drawing a not-top 10 team. In 12/13, they got Valencia, and 6/7 teams were not top ten. In 13/14, they drew Leverkusen, and 6/7 were not top 10. In 18/19, they drew United, and 5/6 teams were not top ten. All of those make sense.

The three times they topped the group and drew a top 10 team were 17/18 (Real Madrid), 19/20 (Dortmund), and 20/21 (Barcelona). Of those, Barcelona was the worst odds with 5/7 teams possible not being top 10 teams. In 17/18, it was 4/7. In 19/20, it was 3/6.

There's also the issue of tying to look at teams in terms of a moment of time. Dortmund in 19/20 wasn't a top 10 team. Neither was 20/21 Barcelona.

I don't remember enough about conditional probability and the like to really guess at how likely or unlikely it is, but long story short, if you're gonna finish 2nd in your group, you should expect to be drawn against a larger side.

 

[Evilo]

No, it doesnt make sense and you know it.
It makes zero sense that they're MORE THAN TWICE more likely to get a top 10 opponent EVEN when they finish 1st. Heck, even when they reached the final, I think they played BVB in the KO stage.
You say they finished second 4 times? Well guess what, some non top 10 teams win their group as well. Every year. Like Bruges this year. And yet you assume it's normal they have a top 10 team every time out these 4 times.

6 times first, and they drew big teams MOST TIMES.
4 times second and they drew big teams EACH TIME.
This is hardly normal. Those are FAR from the normal odds.

In fact, the normal odds can be seen on every single otheer team named there in the table. Between 30 and 40%, with Juve abnormally at 20 and PSG abnormally at 70.

 

[bluesfan94]

6 times first, and they drew big teams MOST TIMES.

The 6 times they were first, they drew a "big team" 3/6 times. In one of those, it was a 50/50 proposition. It's certainly unlucky, but also, two times those "big teams" were not playing like the name would suggest. It's misleading and is buttressed by how Barcelona and Dortmund did in the mid 2010s.

You say they finished second 4 times? Well guess what, some non top 10 teams win their group as well. Every year. Like Bruges this year. And yet you assume it's normal they have a top 10 team every time out these 4 times.

Sure. IN 14/15, there was 1 team that wasn't top 10 of the 6 teams they could have drawn. In 15/16, there were 2 of 7. In 16/17, 2 of 6, and in 21/22, 2 of 6, as well. So somewhere between a 1/4 and 1/3 chance. On 4 occasions. That's not weird.

In fact, the normal odds can be seen on every single otheer team named there in the table. Between 30 and 40%, with Juve abnormally at 20 and PSG abnormally at 70.

Those "odds" aren't odds and don't factor in any confounding factors, such as teams from the same country, teams from the same group stage, and group stage finish.

 

[Evilo]

Misleading?
Sure, you might as well confuse BVB and Barca with the Bruges and Porto of the world

Since you love to waste your time, use your argument on Juve. See how that works out. See how "lucky" they were.

The offs defy any logic. Both for them and PSG.

 

[bluesfan94]

Since you love to waste your time, use your argument on Juve. See how that works out. See how "lucky" they were.

I'll try to do that tomorrow; I'm a little busy at the moment.

 

[bluesfan94]

Misleading?
Sure, you might as well confuse BVB and Barca with the Bruges and Porto of the world

Since you love to waste your time, use your argument on Juve. See how that works out. See how "lucky" they were.

The offs defy any logic. Both for them and PSG.

Would you rather play Barcelona last year or Napoli this year? Guess what? One counts as top 10, one doesn't.

I'll try to do that tomorrow; I'm a little busy at the moment.

Actually f*** it, work can wait. No one is going to look at this until Monday.

12/13 - Juve drew Celtic after finishing 1st. 5/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team - worse odds than PSG, who also drew a not top 10 team after finishing 1st (Valencia).
14/15 - Juve drew Dortmund after finishing 2nd. 2/7 chance of drawing a not top 10 team - worse odds than PSG, who also drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (Chelsea)
15/16 - Juve drew Bayern after finishing 2nd. 2/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, better odds than PSG, who also drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (Chelsea).
16/17 - Juve drew Porto after finishing 1st. They had a 4/7 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, better odds than PSG, who drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (Barcelona). This is the first instance of one team drawing a top 10 team and the other not, and it came when the team drawing a top 10 team finished 2nd while the team drawing a not top 10 team finished 1st.
17/18 - Juve drew Tottenham after finishing 2nd. They had a 3/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, worse odds than PSG, who drew at top 10 team after finishing 1st (Real Madrid). PSG can claim to be hard done by, as their odds were 4/7 of drawing a not top 10 team. That's the difference between a 50% chance and a 57% chance.
18/19 - Juve drew Atletico Madrid after finishing 1st. They had a 4/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, worse odds than PSG, who drew a not top 10 team after finishing 1st (Manchester United). Juve can claim to be hard done by as they had a 66.7% chance of drawing a not top 10 team.
19/20 - Juve drew Lyon after finishing 1st. They had a 2/5 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, worse odds than PSG, who drew a top 10 team, albeit one no longer at that level, after finishing 1st (Borussia Dortmund). Weird situation for Juve, as they finished first but due to other group stage results, they actually had a better chance of drawing a top 10 team. They got slightly lucky.
20/21 - Juve drew Porto after finishing 1st. They had a 4/5 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, a better chance than PSG, who drew a top 10 team, albeit one no longer at that level, after finishing 1st (Barcelona).
21/22 - Juve drew Villarreal after finishing 1st. They had a 4/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, a better chance than PSG, who drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (Real Madrid).

So ultimately, Juve drew a top 10 team 3/9 (33%) times. When finishing 2nd, they drew a top 10 team 2/3 times. When finishing 1st, they drew a top 10 team 1/6 times. That's the difference, and part of it has to do with the odds. Like I said, I don't remember conditional probabilities well enough to combine everything, but it's not that crazy in a small n situation.

 

[Evilo]

1/6 times after finishing 1st is quite the crazy luck. While PSG had a 50% success.

 

[bluesfan94]

1/6 times after finishing 1st is quite the crazy luck. While PSG had a 50% success.

That's a very simplistic way of looking at it, and the difference essentially comes down to counting 19/20 Dortmund and 20/21 Barcelona as top 10 teams on the basis of how those clubs were in the mid-2010s.

 

[Evilo]

You don't want to draw Haaland BVB and Messi Barca when small teams are available.

So yes.

 

[bluesfan94]

You don't want to draw Haaland BVB and Messi Barca when small teams are available.

So yes.

I mean, that's complete revisionist history, but as long as you can play the victim, continue.

 

[Evilo]

How is it revisionnist?
You're trying to argue that PSG's draws are "almost" normal because Haaland lead BVB and Messi lead Barca are top 10 teams but not really.
I'm the revisionnist here?

 

[bluesfan94]

How is it revisionnist?
You're trying to argue that PSG's draws are "almost" normal because Haaland lead BVB and Messi lead Barca are top 10 teams but not really.
I'm the revisionnist here?

Next is Haaland-led RB Salzburg being a top 10 team.

 

[Evilo]

Next is Haaland-led RB Salzburg being a top 10 team.

No, you declassed BVB as a non top 10 team the year they had Sancho aand Haaland, probably their best roster in years.
Revisionnist indeed.

 

[bluesfan94]

No, you declassed BVB as a non top 10 team the year they had Sancho aand Haaland, probably their best roster in years.
Revisionnist indeed.

They also had 12 wins, 4 losses, and 6 draws (or 42 points in 22 games) in the Bundesliga at that point. That's not exactly setting the world on fire.

 

[Evilo]

It was a top 10 team and as a matter of fact beat PSG in the first leg. PSG went on to the final IIRC.

 

[bluesfan94]

It was a top 10 team and as a matter of fact beat PSG in the first leg. PSG went on to the final IIRC.

If you're playing that game, there are clearly 8 teams better (the 8 that proceeded). The question then is was Dortmund better than six of Liverpool, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Napoli, Juve, Tottenham, and Valencia.

 

[Evilo]

No, it's not the question.
There's absolutely no valid reason to think that BVB was not a top 10 team.

 

[les Habs]

Number of times top 10 teams were drawn to another top 10 team in the first KO stage since 2010.

I guess that's called bad luck. I guess.

No, I don’t think that’s bad luck. I think the powers that be are like everyone else in the free world. They don’t like PSG.

 

[luiginb]

You need to beat the best to be the best. And half of PSG's games in the national league are walks in the park anyway.

 

[Evilo]

Add another nice feature :
When PSG played Haifa at home, the ref blew the whistle at 90:00 because it was a beatdown.
Guess when Benfica scored the last goal in their Haifa game? In stoppage time.