Misleading?
Sure, you might as well confuse BVB and Barca with the Bruges and Porto of the world
Since you love to waste your time, use your argument on Juve. See how that works out. See how "lucky" they were.
The offs defy any logic. Both for them and PSG.
Would you rather play Barcelona last year or Napoli this year? Guess what? One counts as top 10, one doesn't.
I'll try to do that tomorrow; I'm a little busy at the moment.
Actually f*** it, work can wait. No one is going to look at this until Monday.
12/13 - Juve drew
Celtic after finishing 1st. 5/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team - worse odds than PSG, who also drew a not top 10 team after finishing 1st (
Valencia).
14/15 - Juve drew
Dortmund after finishing 2nd. 2/7 chance of drawing a not top 10 team - worse odds than PSG, who also drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (
Chelsea)
15/16 - Juve drew
Bayern after finishing 2nd. 2/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, better odds than PSG, who also drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (
Chelsea).
16/17 - Juve drew
Porto after finishing 1st. They had a 4/7 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, better odds than PSG, who drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (
Barcelona). This is the first instance of one team drawing a top 10 team and the other not, and it came when the team drawing a top 10 team finished 2nd while the team drawing a not top 10 team finished 1st.
17/18 - Juve drew
Tottenham after finishing 2nd. They had a 3/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, worse odds than PSG, who drew at top 10 team after finishing 1st (
Real Madrid). PSG can claim to be hard done by, as their odds were 4/7 of drawing a not top 10 team. That's the difference between a 50% chance and a 57% chance.
18/19 - Juve drew
Atletico Madrid after finishing 1st. They had a 4/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, worse odds than PSG, who drew a not top 10 team after finishing 1st (
Manchester United). Juve can claim to be hard done by as they had a 66.7% chance of drawing a not top 10 team.
19/20 - Juve drew
Lyon after finishing 1st. They had a 2/5 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, worse odds than PSG, who drew a top 10 team, albeit one no longer at that level, after finishing 1st (
Borussia Dortmund). Weird situation for Juve, as they finished first but due to other group stage results, they actually had a better chance of drawing a top 10 team. They got slightly lucky.
20/21 - Juve drew
Porto after finishing 1st. They had a 4/5 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, a better chance than PSG, who drew a top 10 team, albeit one no longer at that level, after finishing 1st (
Barcelona).
21/22 - Juve drew
Villarreal after finishing 1st. They had a 4/6 chance of drawing a not top 10 team, a better chance than PSG, who drew a top 10 team after finishing 2nd (
Real Madrid).
So ultimately, Juve drew a top 10 team 3/9 (33%) times. When finishing 2nd, they drew a top 10 team 2/3 times. When finishing 1st, they drew a top 10 team 1/6 times. That's the difference, and part of it has to do with the odds. Like I said, I don't remember conditional probabilities well enough to combine everything, but it's not that crazy in a small n situation.