Prospect Info: Chabot - potential

[armani]

I knew Chabot will be a number 1 guy, maybe not as quickly, but he is trending towards star level. He could be an elite defenceman after a few more seasons.

I was hoping to see a 1-2 punch of EK-TC, with Boucher's offence first approach to start the season I think those two would have torched a few villages.

Still holding onto this hope: "The golden years for the Senators are still ahead".

 

[Xspyrit]

Stupid stat that favours players who have a higher ratio of power play time and penalizes those with a higher ratio of penalty kill time.

Stupid? Of course, it's not like any of these players had major TOI on the PP.... There I added PP TOI/GP and SH TOI/GP in red

1- SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE 1.93 (233 GP) 3:49 vs 0:06
2- ERIK.KARLSSON 1.87 (640 GP) 3:59 vs 1:12
3- WILL.BUTCHER 1.86 (91 GP) 2:49 vs 0:04
4- MARC-ANDRE.BERGERON 1.84 (151 GP) 2:59 vs 0:08
5- JOHN.KLINGBERG 1.82 (315 GP) 3:16 vs 0:29
6- MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV 1.8 (95 GP) 1:51 vs 0:04
7- BRENT.BURNS 1.74 (578 GP) 3:13 vs 1:42
8- KRIS.LETANG 1.72 (547 GP) 3:45 vs 2:09
9- TOREY.KRUG 1.7 (399 GP) 3:01 vs 0:22
10- THOMAS.CHABOT 1.69 (76 GP) 2:05 vs 0:11
11- BRIAN.RAFALSKI 3:40 vs 0:43
12- DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 3:25 vs 1:07
13- KEVIN.SHATTENKIRK 3:03 vs 1:05
14- TYSON.BARRIE 3:05 vs 0:22
15- P.K..SUBBAN 3:41 vs 2:06

Not enough? ok here you go, let's see how you will find it stupid this time.

P/60 at EVEN STRENGTH since 2009-10 :

THOMAS.CHABOT 1.37 (76 GP)
ERIK.KARLSSON 1.34 (640 GP)
JOHN.KLINGBERG 1.34 (315 GP)
CHARLIE.MCAVOY 1.28 (70 GP)
BRENT.BURNS 1.25 (578 GP)
DOUGIE.HAMILTON 1.21 (435 GP)
BRIAN.RAFALSKI 1.19 (141 GP)
VICTOR.HEDMAN 1.19 (635 GP)
DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 1.18 (660 GP)
MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV 1.18 (95 GP)
KRIS.LETANG 1.13 (547 GP)

P/60 on the PP since 2009-10 (minimum 100 minutes) :

MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV 6.59 (172:9 PP TOI)
WILL.BUTCHER 6.38 (254:1 PP TOI)
KEVIN.SHATTENKIRK 5.76 (1657:2 PP TOI)
ERIC.GELINAS 5.44 (331:17 PP TOI)
SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE 5.41 (865:64 PP TOI)
MARC-ANDRE.BERGERON 5.34 (438:33 PP TOI)
CHRIS.PRONGER 5.29 (532:73 PP TOI)
TOREY.KRUG 5.19 (1190:45 PP TOI)
MORGAN.RIELLY 5.07 (745:75 PP TOI)
JOHN.CARLSON 5.04 (1510:81 PP TOI)
SCOTT.NIEDERMAYER 5.01 (311:63 PP TOI)
NICKLAS.LIDSTROM 4.99 (902:42 PP TOI)
............
15. BRENT.BURNS 4.87 (1884:16 PP TOI)
............
24. ERIK.KARLSSON 4.59 (2510:13 PP TOI)
............
32. SERGEI.GONCHAR (MTL/DAL/OTT/PIT) 4.42 (1247:7 PP TOI)
............
59. PATRICK.WIERCIOCH (COL/OTT) 4.01 (449:18 PP TOI)
............
66. CHRIS.PHILLIPS 3.93 (290:21 PP TOI)
............
75. THOMAS.CHABOT 3.8 (158:02 PP TOI)

Karl's points per 60 would be deflated since he plays so many minutes in a variety of situations. There really isn't a D who has produced anywhere near as much and as consistently as Karlsson since Karlsson's breakout year. In recent history, Burns has come close. Over that entire time span, if I recall Letang is the closest to Karl, but there's still a massive difference, and Letang player with Crosby and Malkin.

What I'm saying is, slash Karl's minutes to a more forgiving 21-22 minutes instead of as much as 28 and do you think he puts up significantly less points?

Well check the data above, I separated the production vs situations. The 2 situations a D-man is supposed to produce is at ES and on the PP. Karlsson, like I said before, is an ES beast, but the good news is that Chabot looks to be one as well. Of course, Karlsson is also a PP producer but never thought he was the greatest on the PP (funny that Phillips is 66th on that list)

Karlsson has played an average of 1:12 SH TOI/GP, what other situations (that other D-men don't face as well) were you talking about where you shouldn't expect him to produce?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Having 2 #1 d-men who can move the puck could easily make up for the lack of an elite centre.

Sigh.....

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Having 2 #1 d-men who can move the puck could easily make up for the lack of an elite centre.

Sigh.....

Lajoie might turn into a really good PMD

 

[coladin]

What happens at RFA if he keeps it up like this? Does the team pay him? Or will he get Zibanejad'd/Turris'd/Karlsson'd?

I don't know. It depends on revenues

 

[branch]

I don't know. It depends on revenues

Haha what a joke. Even broke ass Phoenix could sign OEL.

 

[Micklebot]

Stupid? Of course, it's not like any of these players had major TOI on the PP.... There I added PP TOI/GP and SH TOI/GP in red

1- SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE 1.93 (233 GP) 3:49 vs 0:06
2- ERIK.KARLSSON 1.87 (640 GP) 3:59 vs 1:12
3- WILL.BUTCHER 1.86 (91 GP) 2:49 vs 0:04
4- MARC-ANDRE.BERGERON 1.84 (151 GP) 2:59 vs 0:08
5- JOHN.KLINGBERG 1.82 (315 GP) 3:16 vs 0:29
6- MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV 1.8 (95 GP) 1:51 vs 0:04
7- BRENT.BURNS 1.74 (578 GP) 3:13 vs 1:42
8- KRIS.LETANG 1.72 (547 GP) 3:45 vs 2:09
9- TOREY.KRUG 1.7 (399 GP) 3:01 vs 0:22
10- THOMAS.CHABOT 1.69 (76 GP) 2:05 vs 0:11
11- BRIAN.RAFALSKI 3:40 vs 0:43
12- DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 3:25 vs 1:07
13- KEVIN.SHATTENKIRK 3:03 vs 1:05
14- TYSON.BARRIE 3:05 vs 0:22
15- P.K..SUBBAN 3:41 vs 2:06

Not enough? ok here you go, let's see how you will find it stupid this time.

P/60 at EVEN STRENGTH since 2009-10 :

THOMAS.CHABOT 1.37 (76 GP)
ERIK.KARLSSON 1.34 (640 GP)
JOHN.KLINGBERG 1.34 (315 GP)
CHARLIE.MCAVOY 1.28 (70 GP)
BRENT.BURNS 1.25 (578 GP)
DOUGIE.HAMILTON 1.21 (435 GP)
BRIAN.RAFALSKI 1.19 (141 GP)
VICTOR.HEDMAN 1.19 (635 GP)
DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 1.18 (660 GP)
MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV 1.18 (95 GP)
KRIS.LETANG 1.13 (547 GP)

P/60 on the PP since 2009-10 (minimum 100 minutes) :

MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV 6.59 (172:9 PP TOI)
WILL.BUTCHER 6.38 (254:1 PP TOI)
KEVIN.SHATTENKIRK 5.76 (1657:2 PP TOI)
ERIC.GELINAS 5.44 (331:17 PP TOI)
SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE 5.41 (865:64 PP TOI)
MARC-ANDRE.BERGERON 5.34 (438:33 PP TOI)
CHRIS.PRONGER 5.29 (532:73 PP TOI)
TOREY.KRUG 5.19 (1190:45 PP TOI)
MORGAN.RIELLY 5.07 (745:75 PP TOI)
JOHN.CARLSON 5.04 (1510:81 PP TOI)
SCOTT.NIEDERMAYER 5.01 (311:63 PP TOI)
NICKLAS.LIDSTROM 4.99 (902:42 PP TOI)
............
15. BRENT.BURNS 4.87 (1884:16 PP TOI)
............
24. ERIK.KARLSSON 4.59 (2510:13 PP TOI)
............
32. SERGEI.GONCHAR (MTL/DAL/OTT/PIT) 4.42 (1247:7 PP TOI)
............
59. PATRICK.WIERCIOCH (COL/OTT) 4.01 (449:18 PP TOI)
............
66. CHRIS.PHILLIPS 3.93 (290:21 PP TOI)
............
75. THOMAS.CHABOT 3.8 (158:02 PP TOI)



Well check the data above, I separated the production vs situations. The 2 situations a D-man is supposed to produce is at ES and on the PP. Karlsson, like I said before, is an ES beast, but the good news is that Chabot looks to be one as well. Of course, Karlsson is also a PP producer but never thought he was the greatest on the PP (funny that Phillips is 66th on that list)

Karlsson has played an average of 1:12 SH TOI/GP, what other situations (that other D-men don't face as well) were you talking about where you shouldn't expect him to produce?

The reason the original stat was stupid is because it included PK time, and most of the guys high up had virtually none, while Karlsson, Burns and Letang had a bunch. It also can be skewed because some players get a larger portion of their total time on the PP, so even though the raw amount per game is similar, the PP production has a greater impact on their total p/60. Breaking it apart into different strengths definitely helps, but Chabot has had some sheltered mins in his career, this year not as much though. He's definitely trending very well, hope he can keep it up.

 

[aragorn]

I think Chabot's potential is quite high, an elite PMD in the NHL, with some added strength & with a little more experience I also think he could be at the least decent defensively too. Lajoie IMO is a notch below Chabot offensively & a notch above defensively which makes for a good one, two punch on the left side on D but Lajoie as well needs to add some more bulk to his frame which should come in time. They are two good young D with potential & another two or three coming soon in Jaros, Wolanin & JBD.

Interesting read on JBD.
Who is Jacob Bernard-Docker, and why is he ranked 25th for the draft?

 

[Sensung]

If only we had an elite RHD to pair with Chabot it would be simply amazing!

 

[Que]

If only we had an elite RHD to pair with Chabot it would be simply amazing!

We do. His name is Jacob. Kid is a beast. Give it 5 years and our defence will be the envy of the NHL.

 

[Sensung]

We do. His name is Jacob. Kid is a beast. Give it 5 years and our defence will be the envy of the NHL.

And then Eugene will trade them away when it is time to pay them market value.

And we had the best RHD in the universe to play Chabot with...

 

[koyvoo]

Go outdoors..look up. You see the sky?

That’s the limit of his potential.

 

[Sensung]

Go outdoors..look up. You see the sky?

That’s the limit of his potential.

Agreed. It will be awesome to see him reach it with another team unless we force this owner out.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Agreed. It will be awesome to see him reach it with another team unless we force this owner out.

Don’t forget how he will turn into a selfish player and a locker room cancer right before he leaves and that’s why we had to move him.

 

[Sensung]

Don’t forget how he will turn into a selfish player and a locker room cancer right before he leaves and that’s why we had to move him.

Ya, it's almost like there is an agenda at play here...

I love the posts quoting the "Erik is god" quotes from the playoff run 1 YEAR PRIOR!

PS EK was such a "cancer" that our GM's dog is named after him...

 

[Que]

And then Eugene will trade them away when it is time to pay them market value.

And we had the best RHD in the universe to play Chabot with...

We’re lucky that JBD and Chabot are closer in age (and relative contractual control) then EK and Chabot.

We’ll likely see their true potential in their primes for one or two seasons.

If we can accomplish a few playoff runs we should be able to retain both for at least three years of peak production.

 

[Sensung]

We’re lucky that JBD and Chabot are closer in age (and relative contractual control) then EK and Chabot.

We’ll likely see their true potential in their primes for one or two seasons.

If we can accomplish a few playoff runs we should be able to retain both for at least three tests of peak production.

We went to game 7 of the ECF making money hand over fist and got a 17M dollar expansion fee and then proceeded to lowball our generational D.

Acting like Eugene will pay market value for any of our players is laughable.

 

[coladin]

Haha what a joke. Even broke ass Phoenix could sign OEL.

8 isn't 11 or 12

 

[Sensung]

8 isn't 11 or 12

And OEL isn't EK.

But the broke ass farm team for the NHL still managed to commit to their elite D man....weird.

Our franchise is a joke and will continue to be so as long as Eugene is in control.

 

[Que]

We went to game 7 of the ECF making money hand over fist and got a 17M dollar expansion fee and then proceeded to lowball our generational D.

Acting like Eugene will pay market value for any of our players is laughable.

I always forge that darn expansion money the Euge got.

Still though, JBD is 18, Chabot 21, Erik 28. We should likely have Chabot until he's 26 or 27 in terms of cost controllable asset, by then JBD will be 23 or 24.

Add Tychonic, Jaros, Wolanin, whoever else we draft or who else is in the system that might pan out, or just this DeMelo character, we're looking very good.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

We do. His name is Jacob. Kid is a beast. Give it 5 years and our defence will be the envy of the NHL.

In 5 years Chabot won't be on this team. He'll have priced himself out of Ottawa.

 

[Alex1234]

Points league co-leader for Dmen after 77 nhl games is just ridiculous


What a gem

 

[DaveMatthew]

Chabot will be asking for 7+ million per season on his next contract. Gone are the days of bargain RFA deals, let's see if we pony up (probably not).

 

[Que]

In 5 years Chabot won't be on this team. He'll have priced himself out of Ottawa.

If Melnyk is still the owner and his financial situation is still as bad, then 5 yeas from now it will be Chabot's last season.

That's the beauty of the CBA and restricted free agency. He will be arbitration eligible and protected from offer sheets because of how valuable he is.

It's bad but I feel like it's not as crazy bad as people are thinking it to be.

 

[branch]

It’s clear he is on the way to be a #1D if he isn’t already. He needs help now. No one at this moment is capable, maybe JBD will be in a couple years?