Proposal: Cernak Offer Sheet - Ottawa

[Bileur]

Why would Cernak accept an offer sheet?

Why whould Cernak accept an offer sheet from Ottawa?

I’m not saying he’d do it, and I agree that Ottawa likely won’t submit any offer sheets, but if it were to happen, a on a bad team like Ottawa he’s be guaranteed good ice time and a likely even a good partner if he were to treat it as a bridge deal before a big money contact. Ottawa’s right side is currently Zaitsev, Gudbranson, Brown or Zub.

Cernak be about 99% sure to get paired with Chabot playing 25+ mins a night.

Chabot-Cernak
Reilly/Brannstrom-Zaitsev
Wolanin/Brannstrom-Gudbranson

 

[zcaptain]

Here is what I don't get

Unless Tampa gets Stamkos to retire

There are very few teams, that are able to trade for any of Palat, Killorn, Gourde or TJ

They are all basically $5,000,000 players

and when you look at the teams that still have their own RFA's to sign, this year

and next year

and with a flat Cap for 3 to 5 years

I just don't see any GM's taking that risk, especially with all those players with multiple years

and no guarantee of them not starting a decline in the next year or so

Just way too much risk..........

especially when there are a few UFA's......aka Hoffman, Duclair, Granlund, etc who will e signing for discounts

It just does not make sense.

If I am the GM....you have to bribe me.........seriously, man

I wish you guys luck, but??????

 

[zcaptain]

Got to say......and it is the way, I think Tampa could pull it off

Cirelli and Cernak, don't sign until after the first game
and Stamkos goes on the LTIR for the year
and trusting the NHL...they would allow it
so it is possible, if Stamkos is ok with it

 

[Langdon Alger]

Tell us more about Cernak. Whats he like in real life? Is he a nice guy? Is he funny?

He likes to talk during movies from what I’ve heard. I don’t want a guy like that on my team.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

None of the 2 remaining "big" Lightning RFAs are leaving Tampa. Why would they? Seriously.

For more money...

 

[danyhabsfan]

I’m not saying he’d do it, and I agree that Ottawa likely won’t submit any offer sheets, but if it were to happen, a on a bad team like Ottawa he’s be guaranteed good ice time and a likely even a good partner if he were to treat it as a bridge deal before a big money contact. Ottawa’s right side is currently Zaitsev, Gudbranson, Brown or Zub.

Cernak be about 99% sure to get paired with Chabot playing 25+ mins a night.

Chabot-Cernak
Reilly/Brannstrom-Zaitsev
Wolanin/Brannstrom-Gudbranson

their is nothing like submitting an offer sheet


it's just like a UFA where you have to negociated with the agent

We hear of the offer sheet when the player has signed it.



I don't think people understand that. Maybe you do.

Cernak won't screw his team unless the negociation are going really bad like Aho.

 

[Mersss]

their is nothing like submitting an offer sheet


it's just like a UFA where you have to negociated with the agent

We hear of the offer sheet when the player has signed it.



I don't think people understand that. Maybe you do.

Cernak won't screw his team unless the negociation are going really bad like Aho.

Cernak won't sign under his value just to please a team either.

Fact is, No one want what TBL is ready to offer in order to respect the cap. Let's be honnest here

TJ has been not good for what, 2years now? WAYYYYY overpaid, and would require something the TBL won't want to add to him just to get rid of him (Foote + 1st round pick)

Gourde : Same as TJ

Palat : Same as TJ

Killorn : Maybe the only one who actually has value here, for maybe what, a 6th or 7th round pick? Why would another team give anything more than that knowing that the TBL can't sign Cirelli or Cernak whitout letting some of their other players go

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

^ wtf

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Cernak won't sign under his value just to please a team either.

Players do this all the time. That's where the term "hometown discount" comes from.

Fact is, No one want what TBL is ready to offer in order to respect the cap. Let's be honnest here

This is confirmation bias.

TJ has been not good for what, 2years now? WAYYYYY overpaid, and would require something the TBL won't want to add to him just to get rid of him (Foote + 1st round pick)

TJ has been on the decline, but mostly due to deployment and the rise of Cirelli. He just got moved down our depth chart, doesn't mean he's garbage. He's still good for 40 to 50 points given the right situation.

Gourde : Same as TJ

14 pts in 25 playoff games when deployed with players he could play with instead of playing with Maroon and Paquette. TRASH.

Palat : Same as TJ

What? Do you even watch hockey?

Killorn : Maybe the only one who actually has value here, for maybe what, a 6th or 7th round pick? Why would another team give anything more than that knowing that the TBL can't sign Cirelli or Cernak whitout letting some of their other players go

Killorn would improve a team, yes we will be selling cheaper than what he is actually worth, but first and foremost will be a team is looking to improve their team immediately. Killorn does that for a lot of teams. If they can make it work, they probably will call and check the price. Killorn plays all forward positions, pk's, pp, at a reasonable cap hit. But it won't be a 6th or 7th round pick.

 

[BKarchitect]

Imagine thinking Tampa would have to pay a first rounder just for some team to generously take a 29 year-old with two seasons left on his deal who just notched 11 goals in 25 games in the Stanley Cup playoffs and has 60 career playoff points in 92 games all while being one of the best defensive wingers in hockey. Because, you know, all 30 other NHL GMs would be far more interested in colluding with each other to screw Tampa than actually making moves to improve their teams.

Nobody is denying that in this environment and in a cap crunch that the normal expected return for players like Killorn and Palat will be suppressed. Nobody is denying that TJ will probably take some sweetener to move. But some of these takes are borderline insane. These are all good players, all players who have contributed greatly to clutch playoff runs.

And I’m sorry - I keep seeing names like Hoffman and Granlund bandied about. First all you have no idea what those guys are asking for. And frankly if I’m building a Cup contender and you are asking me “Hoffman and Granlund” or “Killorn and Palat” - there’s no question which duo has more of an impact, and it’s not the one that includes one of the most horrifically streaky and one dimensional scorers in the league and a finesse playmaker who has completely lost his game in the last couple of seasons.

Some shrewd GM is going to get a guy lie Killorn or Gourde for a serious bargain (as mentioned it’s highly doubtful Palat even gets asked to move) or get some nice assets to take a player who certainly can still be productive in a top 6 role in TJ. It sucks for Tampa but that’s the price of success. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that a team offers an incredible package for a Cernak or (more likely) Cirelli and that something comes of that but it would take a lot - certainly more than the average offer on this forum because there is some notion that “Tampa is screwed therefore my team can have their players for next to nothing and they have to do it”.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

TJ has been not good for what, 2years now? WAYYYYY overpaid, and would require something the TBL won't want to add to him just to get rid of him (Foote + 1st round pick)

Tyler just scored 29 goals, had 47 points, and was a +15 in 2018-2019. Sure, his 14 goals and 31 points in 15 fewer games played in 2019-2020 season is a bit down but maybe your idea of what a good player is is different than mine. Considering that of his 43 goals in the past 2 years, 40 of them have been at 5v5, I think that is pretty good. Even for someone making $5 Million a year. Of course it looks worse now because of the flat cap but I don't agree that TJ has "been not good for 2 years" and is a gross exaggeration.

Gourde : Same as TJ

Gourde is as good of a 3rd liner as there is in the NHL. The chemistry he's built with Goodrow and Coleman only increase his value to the TBL. Don't see him as a candidate to go anywhere this season.

Palat : Same as TJ

Palat may be the best all around player on the Lightning's team. He does everything and does it at a very high level. He can score, is solid on the PP, is a beast on the PK, and has a defensive game that rivals that of any other forward in the league. He's not going anywhere.

Killorn : Maybe the only one who actually has value here, for maybe what, a 6th or 7th round pick? Why would another team give anything more than that knowing that the TBL can't sign Cirelli or Cernak whitout letting some of their other players go

Because teams don't make moves based on what other teams have to do. They make moves to make their own club better. If they feel Killorn improves their club and they want him they will make an offer. When more than one club feels that way, and when it comes to Killorn more than one club will feel that way, then the offers get better. Not because the other teams want to screw over the Lightning but because they want to secure the players they feel makes them a better hockey club.

EDIT: To address the original purpose of this thread...Cernak isn't going anywhere either.

 

[Elvs]

Maybe this has already been pointed out, but why does his cousin (Jaros) playing in Ottawa suggest that Cernak would like to go there? It could be the complete opposite, especially as they are both righties. Jaros making the team is already borderline scenario. Cernak signing in Ottawa would certainly bump him out of the lineup.

 

[Guitpik]

Not a fan of any of these teams, my team is in the middle of a rebuild and won't be in the market for any of TBL's players. But, it's not a secret that TBL will have to make a move at some point to get under the cap, who that will be remains to be seen. Not really sure if Stamkos will go LTIR, he is a competitor and still one of the most lethal scorers in the league. He was over a PPG in his injury shortened season of 19-20 (but that would cure their problem).

Palat: Coming off of a Championship season with a full NTC. No way he leaves while TBL is probably still the favorite to win another Cup.
Killorn: Coming off of a Championship season with a M-NTC. He can choose 16 teams where he won't be traded. The top 16 can't absorb his contract, in fact only 9 teams have enough space. There would have to be Cap coming back. Doesn't help much.
Gourde: See Palat.
McDonagh: NTC and $6.75 Cap hit through 25-26? Ouch...

TBL needs to lose over $1.9 million off of the Cap WITHOUT signing Cirelli or Cernak.

If they wait and sign Cirelli and/or Cernak until after the season starts, that is an addition to their first year Cap hit. Where does TBL become Cap compliant?

 

[BCNate]

Not a fan of any of these teams, my team is in the middle of a rebuild and won't be in the market for any of TBL's players. But, it's not a secret that TBL will have to make a move at some point to get under the cap, who that will be remains to be seen. Not really sure if Stamkos will go LTIR, he is a competitor and still one of the most lethal scorers in the league. He was over a PPG in his injury shortened season of 19-20 (but that would cure their problem).

Palat: Coming off of a Championship season with a full NTC. No way he leaves while TBL is probably still the favorite to win another Cup.
Killorn: Coming off of a Championship season with a M-NTC. He can choose 16 teams where he won't be traded. The top 16 can't absorb his contract, in fact only 9 teams have enough space. There would have to be Cap coming back. Doesn't help much.
Gourde: See Palat.
McDonagh: NTC and $6.75 Cap hit through 25-26? Ouch...

TBL needs to lose over $1.9 million off of the Cap WITHOUT signing Cirelli or Cernak.

If they wait and sign Cirelli and/or Cernak until after the season starts, that is an addition to their first year Cap hit. Where does TBL become Cap compliant?

They'll be fine and get it sorted out. Sure, it will cost them some high picks and quality prospects, but they will get their guys signed and be a legit contender for the foreseeable future.

HFB loves nothing more than blowing cap crunches way out of proportion.

 

[MaxDummy]

I'd rather play in Tampa for 2.5M per than in Ottawa for 5M per.

Just my opinion

 

[Halla]

this isnt the deal or the team that gets cernak to jump

4+ x 4 or 5 years? maybe

 

[Crow]

I'd rather play in Tampa for 2.5M per than in Ottawa for 5M per.

Just my opinion

That’s a ridiculous opinion for someone at this point in their career.

Just my opinion.

 

[Byrddog]

Imagine thinking Tampa would have to pay a first rounder just for some team to generously take a 29 year-old with two seasons left on his deal who just notched 11 goals in 25 games in the Stanley Cup playoffs and has 60 career playoff points in 92 games all while being one of the best defensive wingers in hockey. Because, you know, all 30 other NHL GMs would be far more interested in colluding with each other to screw Tampa than actually making moves to improve their teams.

Nobody is denying that in this environment and in a cap crunch that the normal expected return for players like Killorn and Palat will be suppressed. Nobody is denying that TJ will probably take some sweetener to move. But some of these takes are borderline insane. These are all good players, all players who have contributed greatly to clutch playoff runs.

And I’m sorry - I keep seeing names like Hoffman and Granlund bandied about. First all you have no idea what those guys are asking for. And frankly if I’m building a Cup contender and you are asking me “Hoffman and Granlund” or “Killorn and Palat” - there’s no question which duo has more of an impact, and it’s not the one that includes one of the most horrifically streaky and one dimensional scorers in the league and a finesse playmaker who has completely lost his game in the last couple of seasons.

Some shrewd GM is going to get a guy lie Killorn or Gourde for a serious bargain (as mentioned it’s highly doubtful Palat even gets asked to move) or get some nice assets to take a player who certainly can still be productive in a top 6 role in TJ. It sucks for Tampa but that’s the price of success. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that a team offers an incredible package for a Cernak or (more likely) Cirelli and that something comes of that but it would take a lot - certainly more than the average offer on this forum because there is some notion that “Tampa is screwed therefore my team can have their players for next to nothing and they have to do it”.

At this point I 100% agree with you, Time is up if there is going to be a season. The lightning need Cernak more than Cirelli the defense took the bigger hit in the offseason. IMO it goes down like this Johnson and Cirelli to either Detroit or New Jersey probably Detroit who can use two centers. Johnson moving back to center bounces back from the mistake of putting him on the wing wo make room for Cirelli two years ago. Yzerman is a smart guy and can position Johnson into the expansion draft spot if need be. so he gets a top6 center for scraps. That is really where we are not.

 

[Canovin]

I'd rather play in Tampa for 2.5M per than in Ottawa for 5M per.

Just my opinion

Anthony Duclair is that you? Didn't fire your agent yet?

 

[Fogelhund]

At this point I 100% agree with you, Time is up if there is going to be a season. The lightning need Cernak more than Cirelli the defense took the bigger hit in the offseason. IMO it goes down like this Johnson and Cirelli to either Detroit or New Jersey probably Detroit who can use two centers. Johnson moving back to center bounces back from the mistake of putting him on the wing wo make room for Cirelli two years ago. Yzerman is a smart guy and can position Johnson into the expansion draft spot if need be. so he gets a top6 center for scraps. That is really where we are not.

Which just might be why nothing has happened as of yet... why do anything, if there ends up not being a season? They've probably already had conversations, about moving cap, but no need to make a move yet, until we know if there is even going to be a season. We don't know the taxi squad rules, waiver rules, how the taxi squad affects cap, or if even there will be a season. Once ALL of the details are finalized, only then will there be moves.

 

[MaxDummy]

That’s a ridiculous opinion for someone at this point in their career.

Just my opinion.

Yup, ridiculous.

Money isnt everything, especially when both options are in the 7 numbers.

Just my opinion. I dont need 5M to be happy

 

[Boud]

Yup, ridiculous.

Money isnt everything, especially when both options are in the 7 numbers.

Just my opinion. I dont need 5M to be happy

No one on this planet NEEDS 5M to be happy.

One thing I'm sure of though is that I'd much rather work in Ottawa a couple years and cash in than to play in Tampa for half the salary ... and then have to deal with retirement at 32-38 with no career outside of hockey knowing that I will need to sustain my lifestyle for the next 30-45 years with the money I've collected.

Like I don't think Kucherov would be happy with 2M right now even though it has 7 digits. Other than superstars and guys that have already cashed in big I don't think anyone would turn down 2.5M per year, and that is obviously a very different situation than Cernak's as he's still got some stripes to earn,

A lot of former professional athletes don't have enough money to sustain their habits for the years ahead of them and need to start working regular jobs after they retire from hockey. Not guys like Crosby and McDavid obviously. You have to earn and then you also have to be smart with your money. I don't see a guy who just earned a NHL spot, who's just getting off his ELC, refusing 2.5M a year because he likes to hang out with the snowbirds in Tampa.

Working in financial management for years and years I've seen a lot of these type of situations, and the smartest thing to do is always to take the money now to enjoy life later .. because you will still enjoy your life at 20 making 5M in Ottawa but you might not enjoy it when you're 55 working as an agent because you don't have a pension and not enough savings going forward. For us it's just normal to work until that age, but if you can avoid it and do what you want to do at 35 then it's a pretty sweet deal.

Anyways.. I'm not even sure why I bothered but bottom line players don't think like you because chances are you'll work until your 60-65 and you'll have a continuous revenue stream and after retirement a pension and you won't have to worry too much. For these guys their careers can last from 2-3 years up to 20 years maximum. They are and can be impacted by injuries and never earn another big contract. It's a pressure that most normal working people do not understand. Look at Anthony Duclair or even Wayne Simmonds. If Duclair doesn't repeat last season numbers this year and goes back to Columbus numbers chances are he never gets offered a multi year deal for the rest of his career. Wayne Simmonds was playing on a bargain contract for years and then regressed and got injured at the time where he was supposed to get his big contract ... He never got it and never will. That's the difference between working in a factory and working as a professional athlete. You gotta earn when you are 20-35 otherwise you'll need to find a career after hockey. Certainly something to keep in mind at least if the only thing you have to endure is a couple months of cold weather.

 

[Todd1a]

Tyler just scored 29 goals, had 47 points, and was a +15 in 2018-2019. Sure, his 14 goals and 31 points in 15 fewer games played in 2019-2020 season is a bit down but maybe your idea of what a good player is is different than mine. Considering that of his 43 goals in the past 2 years, 40 of them have been at 5v5, I think that is pretty good. Even for someone making $5 Million a year. Of course it looks worse now because of the flat cap but I don't agree that TJ has "been not good for 2 years" and is a gross exaggeration.


Gourde is as good of a 3rd liner as there is in the NHL. The chemistry he's built with Goodrow and Coleman only increase his value to the TBL. Don't see him as a candidate to go anywhere this season.


Palat may be the best all around player on the Lightning's team. He does everything and does it at a very high level. He can score, is solid on the PP, is a beast on the PK, and has a defensive game that rivals that of any other forward in the league. He's not going anywhere.

Because teams don't make moves based on what other teams have to do. They make moves to make their own club better. If they feel Killorn improves their club and they want him they will make an offer. When more than one club feels that way, and when it comes to Killorn more than one club will feel that way, then the offers get better. Not because the other teams want to screw over the Lightning but because they want to secure the players they feel makes them a better hockey club.

EDIT: To address the original purpose of this thread...Cernak isn't going anywhere either.

hey I’m glad to still have johnson on the team if other teams don’t want the guy

 

[Sky04]

No one on this planet NEEDS 5M to be happy.

One thing I'm sure of though is that I'd much rather work in Ottawa a couple years and cash in than to play in Tampa for half the salary ... and then have to deal with retirement at 32-38 with no career outside of hockey knowing that I will need to sustain my lifestyle for the next 30-45 years with the money I've collected.

Like I don't think Kucherov would be happy with 2M right now even though it has 7 digits. Other than superstars and guys that have already cashed in big I don't think anyone would turn down 2.5M per year, and that is obviously a very different situation than Cernak's as he's still got some stripes to earn,

A lot of former professional athletes don't have enough money to sustain their habits for the years ahead of them and need to start working regular jobs after they retire from hockey. Not guys like Crosby and McDavid obviously. You have to earn and then you also have to be smart with your money. I don't see a guy who just earned a NHL spot, who's just getting off his ELC, refusing 2.5M a year because he likes to hang out with the snowbirds in Tampa.

Working in financial management for years and years I've seen a lot of these type of situations, and the smartest thing to do is always to take the money now to enjoy life later .. because you will still enjoy your life at 20 making 5M in Ottawa but you might not enjoy it when you're 55 working as an agent because you don't have a pension and not enough savings going forward. For us it's just normal to work until that age, but if you can avoid it and do what you want to do at 35 then it's a pretty sweet deal.

Anyways.. I'm not even sure why I bothered but bottom line players don't think like you because chances are you'll work until your 60-65 and you'll have a continuous revenue stream and after retirement a pension and you won't have to worry too much. For these guys their careers can last from 2-3 years up to 20 years maximum. They are and can be impacted by injuries and never earn another big contract. It's a pressure that most normal working people do not understand. Look at Anthony Duclair or even Wayne Simmonds. If Duclair doesn't repeat last season numbers this year and goes back to Columbus numbers chances are he never gets offered a multi year deal for the rest of his career. Wayne Simmonds was playing on a bargain contract for years and then regressed and got injured at the time where he was supposed to get his big contract ... He never got it and never will. That's the difference between working in a factory and working as a professional athlete. You gotta earn when you are 20-35 otherwise you'll need to find a career after hockey. Certainly something to keep in mind at least if the only thing you have to endure is a couple months of cold weather.

Getting exposed on Ottawa's horrible team will tank your value for future contracts, would rather work in Tampa and build yourself a solid reputation and have a prolonged career than go for an immediate payday that leads nowhere.

 

[Boud]

Getting exposed on Ottawa's horrible team will tank your value for future contracts, would rather work in Tampa and build yourself a solid reputation and have a prolonged career than go for an immediate payday that leads nowhere.

That's debatable. No doubt Tampa has the better team but Cernak would also have a bigger role in Ottawa and more leverage on the team because of it. He could have a bad year in Tampa and tank his value as well. It kinda goes both ways. Sometimes players excel when given more opportunity on worst teams and establish themselves that way. He'd be playing something like 25 minutes a night in Ottawa vs 19-20 in Tampa.

It's a valid point definitely but it's not necessarily how it works. I remember a bunch of players really coming into their own after going to worst teams. Palmieri for example had limited exposure in Anaheim before getting traded to NJ where he was getting first line minutes and earned a big payday because of it.

Anyways Cernak will stay in Tampa, you lucky bastards.