CBJ Board Summer '18 Prospect Rankings: #9
- Thread starter Samkow
- Start date
Hello Johnny
Registered User
- Apr 13, 2007
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A little dramatic considering few if any of us knew who the hell he was 8 weeks ago.
Nanabijou
Booooooooooone
Veini is an interesting prospect and maybe closer to being NHL-ready than others here due to being older.
But, the reality is that he clearly was lower-ranked than Karlberg and Berni as a prospect by Jarmo and company 6 weeks ago. So, I generally defer to the CBJ order on their most recent picks as I trust that Jarmo and crew put a lot more work into their list than I did into mine. If you feel differently, have at it though.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
This presumes that their ideas of Optimal Draft Order and Prospect Value are necessarily one and the same, which need not be the case. See: Nutivaara, who was quite highly rated but drafted late because it was safe to do so.
Xoggz22
Registered User
Nanabijou
Booooooooooone
There's always going to be later round picks that develop into better players or higher rated prospects over the next year or two (or three or four). Nuti progressed incredibly the year after the draft and surprised everyone by grabbing a spot out of training camp the year after that. That's why I'm all on board with someone like Davidsson getting ranked higher than a former first-rounder like Carlsson in this poll - he seems to be progressing at a faster rate and has jumped up from his previous ranking.
But, in the case of the most recent draft, we don't have to guess how the organization ranks the prospects. We absolutely know how they ranked them. And an experienced scout like Jarmo isn't going to pick a guy that's higher on his list later because he thinks it's safer to do so. He allows his scouts to make their list, at least into tiers, and they take the top player on the list that's available when it's their pick.
I have no issue with you thinking that Veini should be rated higher than Berni and Karlberg. These polls enable you to pick whoever you want. I'm just saying that I never mess with the order of the most recent draft as I defer to the CBJ scouts' order. I do try and figure out where I think they slot in with the previous prospects.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
I think you may have missed my point. It's not about how Nutivaara actually turned out - it's about how he was valued at draft time. We heard a lot more about him than we ever heard about Ruopp or Vainio, and they were drafted two rounds earlier.
Nanabijou
Booooooooooone
The over-agers have a larger body of work and may be closer to making the jump to the NHL due to being older and more physically mature. So, as a result, they may get a bit more press as there is more to write about.
But, you may have missed my point which is that the CBJ scouts absolutely thought Ruopp was a higher value prospect at that time compared to Nuti. There's no way they would have drafted the way that they did if they didn't. That is no longer the case, but in June 2015, it was. So, they are clearly not infallible, but I still defer to their list regarding the most recent crop.
I don’t know if that’s necessarily true — there’s probably cases where teams will pass on guys they rank highly because they’re very confident they can get him in a later round. I have no actual examples of this happening in the NHL but I know it happens in other sports. I also obviously can’t speak to whether it was actually the case with Nutivaara or Vehvilainen, but I wouldn’t take the fact Ruopp went earlier to definitively show that the Jackets rated him higher at the time than Nutivaara.
Pronman wrote a good piece a couple months back on how draft lists work.
Everyone makes their top 60 or so list, and for most clubs it's just drafting the top guy left on your list. If your top guy is expected to be available much later, it's more common to see teams trade down than go out of order on their list. Draft lists are different enough across teams that you usually can still get your 50th or 60th guy in the 5th round. After that your whole list might be off the board. And if that happens, it's common for individual scouts to be given the privilege of picking a flyer in the 6th or 7th round.
Maybe that's what happened with Nutivaara - perhaps they were thinking about signing him undrafted (this would have been possible, correct?), but as the 6th round came around the draft list was run through, and Jarmo/Siren tapped Boumedienne with picking a guy. He went with Nutivaara, who Boumedienne had been watching all year, perhaps taking him to avoid the risk that other clubs would sign him.
Everyone makes their top 60 or so list, and for most clubs it's just drafting the top guy left on your list. If your top guy is expected to be available much later, it's more common to see teams trade down than go out of order on their list. Draft lists are different enough across teams that you usually can still get your 50th or 60th guy in the 5th round. After that your whole list might be off the board. And if that happens, it's common for individual scouts to be given the privilege of picking a flyer in the 6th or 7th round.
Maybe that's what happened with Nutivaara - perhaps they were thinking about signing him undrafted (this would have been possible, correct?), but as the 6th round came around the draft list was run through, and Jarmo/Siren tapped Boumedienne with picking a guy. He went with Nutivaara, who Boumedienne had been watching all year, perhaps taking him to avoid the risk that other clubs would sign him.
This makes sense to me, and also could account for the high proportion of overagers the Jackets have taken in the last couple rounds in the last few years (off the top of my head -- Nutivaara, Vehvilainen, Fix-Wolansky, Thurkauf, Davidsson, Gavrikov were all undrafted in at least one previous draft before being picked by the CBJ).
