CBJ Board Summer '18 Prospect Rankings: #2

[CBJx614]

I agree about Carlsson. But I think his stock has fallen behind Peeke's.

EDIT: Im going to be heated if we as a board pick Foudy over Gavrikov and Merzlikins.

Honestly I think if Foudy had a full season to show his talent before the draft he wouldn't have fallen out of the top 10-15 especially with teams grabbing up centers early. I think his high end potential and and ability to hit it are greater than the others.

Personally I do not feel any of our prospects have the chance to be elite players. That is fine, as I think many of them will become role players. I lost my voting privileges I think but I think my top 3 would be:

Foudy
Abramov
Gavrikov

As far as who is the “safest” bet that they are at least something in the NHL I would say Gavrikov, Foudy, then Abramov.

I really like Abramov but his size scares me, I also think to be that small an effective you must be fast. He is not.

Atkinson was able to train with Martin St Louis almost every off-season and I think that helped his game tremendously. I wonder if Cam would be someone to take him to the side and tell him what he has to do to make it.

 

[Xoggz22]

Add Peeke

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Gavrikov, add Marchenko

 

[pled]

Honestly I think if Foudy had a full season to show his talent before the draft he wouldn't have fallen out of the top 10-15 especially with teams grabbing up centers early.

what do you mean fallen out ? he was a late climber

 

[spintheblackcircle]

I voted Gavrikov because he's the one player on this list that would actually be able to be a Blue Jacket this year. If he wasn't signed in Russia, he'd be top 6 now.

The others have higher ceilings, but if you tell me 1 guy has a 10 year career, I'd pick Gavrikov.

 

[aRussian]

I agree about Carlsson. But I think his stock has fallen behind Peeke's.

EDIT: Im going to be heated if we as a board pick Foudy over Gavrikov and Merzlikins.

The new picks always seem to go pretty high on the boards every year and slowly fall over time as a group as new picks enter the fold. I call it the "shiny new toy phenomenon".

 

[pled]

I voted Gavrikov because he's the one player on this list that would actually be able to be a Blue Jacket this year. If he wasn't signed in Russia, he'd be top 6 now.

The others have higher ceilings, but if you tell me 1 guy has a 10 year career, I'd pick Gavrikov.

I am pretty sure he is already better than Kukan and Harrington for sure and can still develop.

 

[mikeyp24]

Gav add Peeke

 

[CBJx614]

what do you mean fallen out ? he was a late climber

I mean that if he had the opportunity to play first line minutes for an entire season (he had maybe 30 some games this season) that he wouldve played well enough that he gets picked in the top 10 or 15

He was a late climber because he wasn't given the opportunity until the last halfish of the season.

 

[MoeBartoli]

That Foudy leads the poll with such a thin resume doesn't exactly make me feel as positive as I'd like to about our prospect pool.

 

[EspenK]

That Foudy leads the poll with such a thin resume doesn't exactly make me feel as positive as I'd like to about our prospect pool.

I agree. I am not at all impressed with our prospect pool. I'm sure there are a couple of guys who will have good careers but at the present time there is no sure shot, can't miss prospect in the group. To me Foudy and Marchenko bring the possibility of a star. Maybe Abramov too. Other than that I have no great hopes.

 

[major major]

I voted Gavrikov because he's the one player on this list that would actually be able to be a Blue Jacket this year. If he wasn't signed in Russia, he'd be top 6 now.

The others have higher ceilings, but if you tell me 1 guy has a 10 year career, I'd pick Gavrikov.

How many Savards would you trade for a Werenski?

The new picks always seem to go pretty high on the boards every year and slowly fall over time as a group as new picks enter the fold. I call it the "shiny new toy phenomenon".

Most of the value with these prospects is the chance that they become star players. And the shiny new toys have a lot more possibilities, upside and downside. It's like a funnel that they gradually go through until you have a much better sense of what they're going to be like in a couple years. And I'd take a guy who has a 1/3 chance of becoming a top liner, and 2/3 becoming nothing, over a guy who is a lock for a #4 D man and nothing more. Not to say that those are my projections for Gavrikov and Foudy - I'm just giving you an idea of my decision process.

 

[pled]

I agree. I am not at all impressed with our prospect pool. I'm sure there are a couple of guys who will have good careers but at the present time there is no sure shot, can't miss prospect in the group. To me Foudy and Marchenko bring the possibility of a star. Maybe Abramov too. Other than that I have no great hopes.

I feel like being in the bottom team for many years has spoiled many people on the prospect level

 

[major major]

I agree. I am not at all impressed with our prospect pool. I'm sure there are a couple of guys who will have good careers but at the present time there is no sure shot, can't miss prospect in the group. To me Foudy and Marchenko bring the possibility of a star. Maybe Abramov too. Other than that I have no great hopes.

Texier has a ton of upside too.

But you're right, zero blue chippers. All those guys are already on the team - remember that Werenski is a year and a half younger than Gavrikov, and Dubois is the same age as Abramov.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Honestly I think if Foudy had a full season to show his talent before the draft he wouldn't have fallen out of the top 10-15 especially with teams grabbing up centers early. I think his high end potential and and ability to hit it are greater than the others.

We'll see. He's a huge question mark. I don't mind the pick, I think we reached, but I think it could work out too. However, the fact Foudy has more votes than Merzlikins and Gavrikov is pretty laughable to me. Even if you believe completely in Foudy's ceiling, Merzlikins and Gavrikov are better prospects.

Foudy showed potential for half a season. Merzlikins and Gavrikov have shown huge potential for consecutive seasons and are arguably some the best young professionals in the world that aren't in the NHL. Picking a raw 18 year old over that is ridiculous. As @aRussian said, shiny new toy syndrome.

 

[Theo Von]

We'll see. He's a huge question mark. I don't mind the pick, I think we reached, but I think it could work out too. However, the fact Foudy has more votes than Merzlikins and Gavrikov is pretty laughable to me. Even if you believe completely in Foudy's ceiling, Merzlikins and Gavrikov are better prospects.

Foudy showed potential for half a season. Merzlikins and Gavrikov have shown huge potential for consecutive seasons and are arguably some the best young professionals in the world that aren't in the NHL. Picking a raw 18 year old over that is ridiculous. As @aRussian said, shiny new toy syndrome.

Yup ^^^

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I've been voting for Elvis at 1 and 2. Doesn't look like that's going to happen. But 1) that's part of the exercise and 2) there are no set criteria for voting. So I'm just going to see how things end up shaking out.

Remember when the joy of voting in the prospect polls was going to lighten the burdensome Summer of Bread?

 

[CBJx614]

We'll see. He's a huge question mark. I don't mind the pick, I think we reached, but I think it could work out too. However, the fact Foudy has more votes than Merzlikins and Gavrikov is pretty laughable to me. Even if you believe completely in Foudy's ceiling, Merzlikins and Gavrikov are better prospects.

Foudy showed potential for half a season. Merzlikins and Gavrikov have shown huge potential for consecutive seasons and are arguably some the best young professionals in the world that aren't in the NHL. Picking a raw 18 year old over that is ridiculous. As @aRussian said, shiny new toy syndrome.

Goalies are also insanely hard to predict, anything could happen when Elvis gets here and Gavrikov only has so much upside. I think Foudy has the best potential to be the best player of the bunch.

It's not shiny new toy sydrome, it's a Jarmo first round pick, something he rarely misses on.

 

[CBJx614]

NHL WHITEBOARD.: Jarmo Kekalainen: Amateur Scouting and Sustained Success

He assumed the role of assistant general manager and chief amateur scout in 2002 and has since picked Backes, Stempniak, Nikitin, Polak, Oshie, Johnson, Berglund, Eller, Cole, Perron, Pietrangelo, Schwartz and Tarasenko in the draft. His draft history in the first round is astounding — his only bust is goaltender Marek Schwartz in 2004 (and goalies are known to be very volatile prospects). You could say he disappointed with Johnson, but there wasn't a lot of leeway there; as he was the consensus #1 and St. Louis was in the precarious position of having a severely dwindling fanbase at the time. Almost the entirety of St. Louis' current core was acquired by means of the draft; and while they rode hot goaltending a lot of last year, a lot of that hard work on the amateur side is coming to fruition and paying off in a big way. Jarmo supplied the Blues with terrific personnel.

And now you can add Wennberg, Z, PLD and possibly Milano to his list of 1st round picks.

Dano and Rychel possibly added to the bust list, but keep in mind he didn't have his own scouts in place for that draft and still came away with multiple NHLers

 

[Viqsi]

We'll see. He's a huge question mark. I don't mind the pick, I think we reached, but I think it could work out too. However, the fact Foudy has more votes than Merzlikins and Gavrikov is pretty laughable to me. Even if you believe completely in Foudy's ceiling, Merzlikins and Gavrikov are better prospects.

Foudy showed potential for half a season. Merzlikins and Gavrikov have shown huge potential for consecutive seasons and are arguably some the best young professionals in the world that aren't in the NHL. Picking a raw 18 year old over that is ridiculous. As @aRussian said, shiny new toy syndrome.

Well, let's see. What other examples can you think of of forwards -particularly centers - that started out modestly ranked, abruptly turned in a very good late season performance, zipped up the draft rankings, and then ended up going even higher than expected? The examples I can think of off the top of my head are Seguin, Johansen, Scheifele, and Dubois. (And Kotkaniemi this year.)

Sometimes, that kind of late season push is actually indicative of something special.

 

[cslebn]

I think the issue with Foudy is the lack of track record and that's why some don't have faith in him yet. I know I want to see more from him before I call him one of our top prospects (Not that my say counts obviously).

Let's look at a similar style (seemingly) player and his 18/19/20 yr old stats:

71 gp 16g 23a 39pts (draft year)
76 gp 34g 32a 66pts
58 gp 32g 34a 66pts

This guy was drafted in the 5th round in 97. It's Jason Chimera. I would not consider him a superstar prospect. That's why I want to see more from Foudy before I think more highly of him.

 

[CBJx614]

I think the issue with Foudy is the lack of track record and that's why some don't have faith in him yet. I know I want to see more from him before I call him one of our top prospects (Not that my say counts obviously).

Let's look at a similar style (seemingly) player and his 18/19/20 yr old stats:

71 gp 16g 23a 39pts (draft year)
76 gp 34g 32a 66pts
58 gp 32g 34a 66pts

This guy was drafted in the 5th round in 97. It's Jason Chimera. I would not consider him a superstar prospect. That's why I want to see more from Foudy before I think more highly of him.

A lot has changed in drafting and development in 20 years..

 

[cslebn]

A lot has changed in drafting and development in 20 years..

Very much so. The game is different too.

I just want to see more first.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I've been voting for Elvis at 1 and 2. Doesn't look like that's going to happen. But 1) that's part of the exercise and 2) there are no set criteria for voting. So I'm just going to see how things end up shaking out.

Remember when the joy of voting in the prospect polls was going to lighten the burdensome Summer of Bread?

That doesn't mean we're not allowed to debate, no? I feel like its been respectful.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

That doesn't mean we're not allowed to debate, no? I feel like its been respectful.

Simply voicing an alternate perspective to getting made when the voting doesn't go as I think it should. Make your case. Have at it. By all means.