Post-Game Talk: Caps vs Kings 12pm et

[Devil Dancer]

They lead the NHL for OZ Possession-Time per game (05:25).

I would not have predicted that. Their cycle game is good, but I didn't realize it's THAT good.

@SPORTLOGiQ: The @Capitals have 2nd best DZ Possession Success Rate in the NHL (71.2%). 3rd lowest Dump-Out Rate in NHL (17.3%).

What's "DZ Possession Success Rate?"

I bet the dump out number is up significantly from the last few seasons. They seem to break out much more cleanly lately, especially the last 20 games or so.

 

[artilector]

Surely better passing should improve S%, but not by these amounts. Oshie's & Mojo's S% is ridiculous, but it's not like they have new linemates playing a completely different game from last year.

This is of course not to say that the recent offensive resurgence is a mirage, but I do think the team S% will drop. Being able to tilt the ice will always be a very important factor, and one they should keep trying to improve, especially the top-6.

 

[Langway]

I see we are 1st to 4th in those metrics. Who are the other 3 teams? I'd assume it's Pittsburgh, Columbus and maybe the NYR.

I only have access to what's on their Twitter feed. Recently it looks like Chicago is tops in ES Possession time and second in OZ Possession time. For the rest you'd have to go further back but the Rangers are likely lower in them since their possession stats aren't strong. Same goes for a team like Minnesota. Los Angeles and Boston are probably up there. It's kind of a weird year where those two teams in particular put up elite possession numbers but don't score a whole lot (both in the bottom ten in goal rate 5-on-5). If those two could add another finisher or get more out of certain core forwards they could be dangerous.

What's "DZ Possession Success Rate?"

DZ possessions that don't result in turnovers I think.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

This game was an example of how *quality* of shots can matter.

On the other hand, I do think the Caps have a bunch of players with all kinds of unsustainable S%:

Oshie 21.7
Mojo 21.1
Connolly 18.5
Williams 16.5
Beagle 15.7
Backstrom 15.6

There's basically not a single player that you could say has been unlucky (maybe Schmidt & Orpik, haha... used to be Kuz).

I don't think they can sustain this accuracy.

I do hope they can improve shot volume -- the top-6 certainly has room for improvement as far as tilting the ice. Hopefully in closer playoff games they'll have another gear to go to, helped by managed reg. season ice time.

If those shooting percentages were from distant shots I'd tend to agree with you more but when those are coming from up close and personal. The percentages are to be expected and are sustainable when shooting from that close.

 

[4thTierSport]

This game was an example of how *quality* of shots can matter.

On the other hand, I do think the Caps have a bunch of players with all kinds of unsustainable S%:

Oshie 21.7
Mojo 21.1
Connolly 18.5
Williams 16.5
Beagle 15.7
Backstrom 15.6

There's basically not a single player that you could say has been unlucky (maybe Schmidt & Orpik, haha... used to be Kuz).

I don't think they can sustain this accuracy.

I do hope they can improve shot volume -- the top-6 certainly has room for improvement as far as tilting the ice. Hopefully in closer playoff games they'll have another gear to go to, helped by managed reg. season ice time.

Backstrom is only 3% above his career average and Williams is just under 6%. Those aren't extreme increases. I don't think it would be unreasonable for Backstrom to sustain that either. He has great accuracy and can get high quality opportunities due to teams hedging to other Caps on the ice.

Connelly's is high but his career % year to year is all over the place. I would guess his 18.5% is closer to his "actual %" then those years of 4% and 8%. I think he is playing his best hockey since he got into the NHL this year.

The other 3 are high but they aren't the Rangers/Crosby doubling career averages high.

 

[g00n]

Pretty sure shooting% tends to drop for most players in the playoffs anyway. Not a big deal if we're winning games at that point, and for that to happen we will need everyone clicking like they are now so it probably doesn't matter. All ships will have to rise or fall with the playoff tide.

 

[Blades of Steel]

this is it.. this is our year, just a good feeling about it. I feel like the supporting cast is much better and the offensive depth is where it should be. Our bottom 6 is performing very, very well.

 

[RandyHolt]

If those shooting percentages were from distant shots I'd tend to agree with you more but when those are coming from up close and personal. The percentages are to be expected and are sustainable when shooting from that close.

I agree. Many of the goals we are scoring now, the goalie has no chance. He is playing the corsi and save % padding shots, and getting burned.

Teams and goalies will adjust and play the pass more, and until then, who cares about stats when we score over 4 per game.

It's almost like posters would feel more comfortable shooting at every chance, and abandon our newly found ace passing, and kill the S% and pad Corsi.

 

[twabby]

I agree. Many of the goals we are scoring now, the goalie has no chance. He is playing the corsi and save % padding shots, and getting burned.

Teams and goalies will adjust and play the pass more, and until then, who cares about stats when we score over 4 per game.

It's almost like posters would feel more comfortable shooting at every chance, and abandon our newly found ace passing, and kill the S% and pad Corsi.

Corsi is one measure. Better statistics, such as Expected Goals by Corsica (xGF%), have been shown to be more predictive and more repeatable than Corsi and include elements of shot quality such as distance, angle, whether or not it was a rebound or rush shot, off-wing shots, etc. So what do expected goals say about the Capitals? (Collapsed images below)

[collapse=text]

The Expected Goals model shows they've been more or less improving all season long.

This despite a remarkably consistent Corsi For % over the season:

[/collapse]

Advanced stats are so much more than just Corsi now. Looking at the graphs above for the Capitals, the Expected Goals model seems to match up with their performance over the course of the season: decent start, uninspiring 20 or so games in the middle, and then a torrid pace since December. The Corsi graph doesn't really match that same reality IMO. In other words I'm thrilled with the direction the team is going in even if their Corsi is staying even or slightly declining because they are creating more Expected Goals.

The one thing Expected Goals doesn't seem to incorporate is shooter or goaltender quality. In other words, a one-timer from the dot by Jay Beagle I believe is weighted the same as that same shot by Ovechkin. I'm sure they are working on optimizing more predictive statistical measures (such as Emmanuel Perry's K statistic which claims the Capitals are by and far the best team in the league), but the point is they are improving over time even if they have flaws.

(I don't intend to make this a statistical hijacking, but I thought the graphs were relevant to the discussion so I posted them here instead of the Advanced Stats thread.)

 

[usiel]

My main observation was just that LA was good along the walls and forechecking which led naturally to some zone time but wasn't all that dangerous. Definitely evident they are lacking some offensive talent.

 

[RandyHolt]

Good stuff as usual. Nice work on the hidden chart.

I would like to see tracking of consecutive # of completed passes before a shot is taken, and shooting % off of that.

My thinking, when a team completes 7 passes in a row, shooting % increases. Factor in venue, opposition strength, whatever is needed. Shots are byproducts of passing 90%+ of the time, why not track it in some way.

I would also like to see odd mans tracked for and against. A lot of odd mans, a shot on goal is not logged. Like it never happened. I think there is a lot of data there, e.g. a failing system, finishing ability. I hope its considered a quality chance.

I think I need to invent my own stats. Or hire Twabby to do it.

 

[artilector]

Assuming a more "intricate" offense (based on more/better passes, etc) indeed leads to significantly higher S%, there's also the question of whether/to what extent one can sustain that kind of offense in playoffs.

You look at Kings, you know they can play the same exact way in playoffs. Throw a billion pucks towards the net, screen, crash, rebound, repeat.

If you rely on multiple nice passes, it gets harder -- less time & space.

Devil's advocate

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Assuming a more "intricate" offense (based on more/better passes, etc) indeed leads to significantly higher S%, there's also the question of whether/to what extent one can sustain that kind of offense in playoffs.

You look at Kings, you know they can play the same exact way in playoffs. Throw a billion pucks towards the net, screen, crash, rebound, repeat.

If you rely on multiple nice passes, it gets harder -- less time & space.

Devil's advocate

Fortunately, we have more than one way to generate offense. We can score on the rush, in the zone using the weave drill or by creating rebound opportunities with traffic in front. We have displayed every type of tactic to score goals this season.

 

[RandyHolt]

Art, the devil.... Teams will play the pass more, sure. But that should open up shooting just a tad. Of course, all of it now skewed... by goalie pants.

The Pitt model from last year still stands until a new system takes the cup. Stretch passes, flips, quick passing, all forms of passing that could also be tracked. Flips to center that led to quality chances by working the long gone 2 line pass. Path a pass took for a chance. DDDDLWCRWCRW=Goal.

Possession is close, but a guy below the goal line spinning in circles adept at shielding the puck but with little risk to score, is very different than our weave above the goal line.

 

[artilector]

Fortunately, we have more than one way to generate offense. We can score on the rush, in the zone using the weave drill or by creating rebound opportunities with traffic in front. We have displayed every type of tactic to score goals this season.

Yeah, but all those tactics you listed get harder to execute in playoffs.
Except rebounds -- but that's the one area the Caps are definitely not elite in, IMO.

I mean, what translates reliably to playoff hockey...
1. Strong play on the boards (Joel Ward hockey)
2. Shots from the point, screens, tips, rebounds (Kings hockey)
3. Turnovers from suffocating forecheck (fast pesky team hockey)

I don't think any of those are a Caps' strength.

That's why the 3rd line offense will be so vital, IMO.

I think the Caps' soff-ish offense will take a hit, as usual -- so just need offense oozing from every pore to overbear, overwhelm, and overcome!

 

[Langway]

Yeah, I still think they're weak in shooting for rebounds and crashing the net in particular. They do crowd and screen at times but they're probably going to need to score more dirty goals. I'm not sure they have enough scrappiness in the top six for that game or enough of a greedy shot mentality on the PP. Their shot rate on the PP is middle of the pack when it's normally top five.

Their board play isn't bad, Ovechkin aside, but they're a team that mostly thrives on team defense and transition. A strong, deep forechecking team with enough speed to track back on them and maintain strong D gaps would be the recipe for keeping them in check. Eller does have some heaviness to him....Connolly as well...but it definitely needs to be more of an emphasis among the top six and in their PP mentality.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Yeah, but all those tactics you listed get harder to execute in playoffs.
Except rebounds -- but that's the one area the Caps are definitely not elite in, IMO.

I mean, what translates reliably to playoff hockey...
1. Strong play on the boards (Joel Ward hockey)
2. Shots from the point, screens, tips, rebounds (Kings hockey)
3. Turnovers from suffocating forecheck (fast pesky team hockey)

I don't think any of those are a Caps' strength.

That's why the 3rd line offense will be so vital, IMO.

I think the Caps' soff-ish offense will take a hit, as usual -- so just need offense oozing from every pore to overbear, overwhelm, and overcome!

We do have some strong players on the boards. Backstrom and Oshie on the first line, Williams on the second, Connolly and Eller on the third and the entire 4th line. Joel Ward hockey is not what it takes to win the Stanley Cup in 2017, and Kings hockey is unsuccessful against a team like the Penguins. Speed is the name of the game, Penguins won the Stanley Cup with a soft, passing offense. They got odd-man rushes by the dozen against our weaker pairings, and we'll do the same to their depth defensemen. We will edge them out in defense and goaltending.

What's our biggest strength? We pass the puck right on the money, our overall movement is coordinated very well, to the point that even scrubs like Winnik can do no-look passes from Gretzky's office.

 

[SimplySensational]

Its hard to argue against Corsi when you see the Kings and Blackhawks win, but corsi and OZ time always correlated according to Corsi himself.

Well the Capitals can do OZ time without just mindlessly shooting pucks constantly from beyond the circles and instead doing a lot of rotating and switch offs to create their chances. Chicago and LA offense relies on trying to cover the points and covering the screener for them to get open, the Capitals skate all around and use fast passing. I'm not going to let corsi make me doubt this team, there's just no holes in the lineup, all the way to the 7th dman. They just need to all perform to their abilities in the playoffs.

Also, against the Kings they talked about the Kings playing physical, well the Capitals responded and were throwing it around too.

 

[Blades of Steel]

Its hard to argue against Corsi when you see the Kings and Blackhawks win, but corsi and OZ time always correlated according to Corsi himself.

Well the Capitals can do OZ time without just mindlessly shooting pucks constantly from beyond the circles and instead doing a lot of rotating and switch offs to create their chances. Chicago and LA offense relies on trying to cover the points and covering the screener for them to get open, the Capitals skate all around and use fast passing. I'm not going to let corsi make me doubt this team, there's just no holes in the lineup, all the way to the 7th dman. They just need to all perform to their abilities in the playoffs.

Also, against the Kings they talked about the Kings playing physical, well the Capitals responded and were throwing it around too.

Yep, also our breakouts were quick against them... reminded me of us vs the Pens last year when our physical game was pretty much neutered. Also, agree with your comment above about just putting it together.. there is nothing to improve, they just have to show up and find a way to get the wins when the playoffs are here, no one can disappear.

The bottom 6 is playing so well I have a very good feeling about this year, Ovechkin doesn't have to be a one man show.

 

[discobob]

Yep, also our breakouts were quick against them... reminded me of us vs the Pens last year when our physical game was pretty much neutered. Also, agree with your comment above about just putting it together.. there is nothing to improve, they just have to show up and find a way to get the wins when the playoffs are here, no one can disappear.

The bottom 6 is playing so well I have a very good feeling about this year, Ovechkin doesn't have to be a one man show.

I think this is a really good point. A lot of teams think they can slow down a "skill" group by hitting, and it sometimes works. However, the other side of the coin applies too. If you focus too much on hitting, you end up with odd man breaks and out of position players. Similarly to the way the Isles went nuts over Wilson and it threw their game off because they were so interested in payback...

 

[Sam Spade]

Corsi is stupid. We won 5-0 and a ton of games we've been even or not so good with corsi and people keep saying "it's going to even out".... yet we are like 17-2-1 last 20 games.

Throw corsi out the window.

I agree, FOR THIS GAME. Kings just don't have the talent upfront the Caps do and Sunday it was really obvious.

However the Caps have been trending down in possession and that should not be overlooked.

 

[tycoonheart]

We should probably look at possession numbers before these games get out of hand. We've been winning in blowout fashion, it makes sense the other team is going to push hard at all cost.

 

[Sam Spade]

We should probably look at possession numbers before these games get out of hand. We've been winning in blowout fashion, it makes sense the other team is going to push hard at all cost.

I watch the numbers after every period here:

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php

Corsica works as well.