Post-Game Talk: Caps vs Habs 7:00 PM EST

[CapitalsCupReality]

McMichael has practically had a new line combination every single game as a rookie, not worried at all about his point totals.

He clearly passes the eye test and he’s only going to get better.

Yes and yep…

what will be interesting to see, is when we’re healthy, and if he’s still not producing hardly anything, will he dress…..

I think all TXPD was suggesting was an option to go to the AHL, play a game or two, hopefully pot a couple of goals and come back to the NHL with more confidence.

Not an outrageous idea IMO (but not needed now due to lack of warm bodies)…..

 

[txpd]

Remember when you were like “I can admit when I’m wrong” and now you’re about to make this into something it’s not so you can double down?
Why don’t you take a second to reevaluate? Been unbelievable this season.

I am slow. Baking pies and stuff. What specifically should I reevaluate so I can say that I was wrong?

 

[g00n]

Yes. As I mentioned McMichael is scoring 2.01 points/60 at 5v5. That's the exact same rate that TJ Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom scored last year at 5v5. Did they not score enough for your liking?

Not everyone can be Alex Ovechkin and score 4+ points/60 at 5v5.

Whatever the hell is going on in this thread, Twabby is right about this.

 

[HTFN]

I am slow. Baking pies and stuff. What specifically should I reevaluate so I can say that I was wrong?

Any of like 17 off-season hand-wringings about how important every point is, how rookies can’t be won with, so and so isn’t close to ready, etc.

Just the biggest pessimistic mess all off-season and now, even with injuries and a worst case scenario things are going really well and you still can’t help but try to find one of these things to harp on. Just shut up and wait for it to matter so you can tell us all you saw it coming and let us enjoy something for now.

 

[HTFN]

Whatever the hell is going on in this thread, Twabby is right about this.

This. It’s about to get distorted into some unwinnable comparison between all star veterans and a rookie but the original argument is sound, if it’s about production that’s a rate of production that should be acceptable for the time being.

 

[tycoonheart]

McMichael has practically had a new line combination every single game as a rookie, not worried at all about his point totals.

He clearly passes the eye test and he’s only going to get better.

His line also looked good last night. Him and Sprong seem to be developing a bit of chemistry.

 

[Langway]

CMM had an assist in this game on what was a really slick D zone exit pass. The coaching staff looks at more than just boxcars so I'm confident that won't be primarily why he plays or doesn't play ahead of Sprong down the line. Points would help but when healthy it's more likely to come down to all-around trustworthiness. That's so far ahead that it's hardly worth speculating about right now. He still needs to get faster to become more of a transition threat but the head, the hands and the confidence to create unexpected passes are all there. You'd like to see him show out against top opponents and maybe manage to get a few more shots at net but we're not even two months into his rookie season. It's a process. A better indicator of trustworthiness will be TOI rather than production per se.

These next three games to close out the month should be great tests of where they're at as a team. I'm a bit surprised based on practice that Cholowski may step back in for Schultz if he can't go. I would have thought Irwin would have gotten the nod after what was a fairly underwhelming debut.

 

[txpd]

Any of like 17 off-season hand-wringings about how important every point is, how rookies can’t be won with, so and so isn’t close to ready, etc.

Just the biggest pessimistic mess all off-season and now, even with injuries and a worst case scenario things are going really well and you still can’t help but try to find one of these things to harp on. Just shut up and wait for it to matter so you can tell us all you saw it coming and let us enjoy something for now.

Oh....attitude. Sweat. I would say I am impressed by the results of the team given the injuries and the number of rookies playing. So, definately wrong there. I scoffed at the idea that the Caps were a bubble team. Right on that one. What we are left with is the usage of the rookies and the coaching. Are you in the PLAY THE KIDS!!! group or do you support managing them and giving them the best chance at success? I am in the corner that says the coaching has been brilliant and not supportive of the idea that that coaching has been bad.

I further think I was supportive of the young goalies and not going out to get a veteran. So far so good. I was supportive of 42 being a regular top 6 defenseman and I think I suggested the Caps needed to keep Chara for his penalty killing and physical play. Right on Fehervary. Apparantly wrong on Chara. The PK started slow but has been top 5 for the last month or so.

Do you have some more quotes where I can admit being wrong? Help yourself. I am about to leave for Thanksgiving dinner but I am more than willing to eat more crow after pie.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Actual pie > Expected pie

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

3

Panthers, Hurricanes, Panthers

I would be happy w 3 points then

 

[DWGie26]

This all started with @txpd suggesting McMichael could go down. I followed up with I like Protas to stay longer. But nobody is suggesting anyone go anywhere while we are down bodies. Comments were more about what happens when we are healthy (as least from my perspective).

Since it is thanksgiving, I’ll say (from hockey perspective), I am thankful that we have seen so many rookies and future of the organization step up this year. Thankful that GMBM doesn’t panic and make moves that don’t need to be made. Thankful that Lavi is coaching them up and getting the team to buy in.

I’ll even say I’m thankful for the playful sparing amongst this group. Good times all. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[twabby]

Actual pie > Expected pie

Going to have to agree here!

 

[Raikkonen]

Whatever the hell is going on in this thread, Twabby is right about this.

Pity I put him on ignore because of his avatar. Really dumb.

 

[AtNightWeFly]

Pity I put him on ignore because of his avatar. Really dumb.

Are you prone to seizures?

 

[Kalopsia]

I know you don’t like it, but actual goals and assists matter. He’s been treading water of late IMO.

77 and 19 bring other things when they’re not scoring.

So, to get this straight, when twabby uses points/60 it’s cherry-picking (even though he was responding to a comment specifically about point production), and when he responds to the cherry-picking argument by posting stats on overall impact you don’t care because points matter. I’m used to people moving the goalposts, but you don’t often see someone move the goalposts right back to where they were before they moved them! Kinda feel like you’re arguing this because of who made the point more than anything else.

 

[txpd]

I would be happy w 3 points then

Just beat Carolina

 

[txpd]

So, to get this straight, when twabby uses points/60 it’s cherry-picking (even though he was responding to a comment specifically about point production), and when he responds to the cherry-picking argument by posting stats on overall impact you don’t care because points matter. I’m used to people moving the goalposts, but you don’t often see someone move the goalposts right back to where they were before they moved them! Kinda feel like you’re arguing this because of who made the point more than anything else.

May I try? The initial point was that McMichael was struggling. He 2 assists in his last 8 games. His points 60 in that stretch are bad. The points 60 doesnt account for that 8 game stretch that is current. It also suggests that McMichael is playing well while not scoring any actual goals and putting up very few points.

This is a conversation that goes back to last season where Twabs insisted that Kuznetsov was playing great and Backstrom was struggling. Backstrom lead the team in scoring and the GM was calling Kuzy out for hurting the team at the end of the season. Kuznetsov had 29 pts in 41 games last season. Backstrom had 53pts in 55 games and was the guy not playing well while Kuzy was better. We were told that actual points on the board were overrated in showing who was good and who wasn't.

How long would you let a young player's goalless streak go on before you did something about it?

 

[Hivemind]

So, to get this straight, when twabby uses points/60 it’s cherry-picking (even though he was responding to a comment specifically about point production), and when he responds to the cherry-picking argument by posting stats on overall impact you don’t care because points matter. I’m used to people moving the goalposts, but you don’t often see someone move the goalposts right back to where they were before they moved them! Kinda feel like you’re arguing this because of who made the point more than anything else.

Preach!

 

[twabby]

May I try? The initial point was that McMichael was struggling. He 2 assists in his last 8 games. His points 60 in that stretch are bad. The points 60 doesnt account for that 8 game stretch that is current. It also suggests that McMichael is playing well while not scoring any actual goals and putting up very few points.

This is a conversation that goes back to last season where Twabs insisted that Kuznetsov was playing great and Backstrom was struggling. Backstrom lead the team in scoring and the GM was calling Kuzy out for hurting the team at the end of the season. Kuznetsov had 29 pts in 41 games last season. Backstrom had 53pts in 55 games and was the guy not playing well while Kuzy was better. We were told that actual points on the board were overrated in showing who was good and who wasn't.

How long would you let a young player's goalless streak go on before you did something about it?

If we assume point-scoring is distributed similarly to a Poisson distribution (it’s not exactly because each point-scoring event is certainly not independent of prior events, but it’s probably close enough to make the calculations relatively accurate) then what we’re seeing out of McMichael is completely expected from a player whose actual results and talent are 2.0 points/60 and playing about 12:15 5v5 minutes per game over the past 8 games (his current average over the past 8 games).

Indeed, using the handy dandy Poisson calculator below we find that there is a ~37% chance that an 8 game stretch will consist of 2 or fewer points, given a 2.0 point per 60 scorer who plays 12:15 minutes per game at 5v5.

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx

So if you’re disappointed with his point scoring I think your expectations are probably way too high. Everyone who is not in the top tier of league scorers (the Kucherovs, McDavids, and Ovechkins of the league) regularly go through stretches like McMichael.

This is exactly why I suggest that if he is to be reassigned to the AHL there should be another reason aside from points.

 

[Raikkonen]

Are you prone to seizures?

I dont feel a need to be in uncomfortable situation if I can avoid it at this stage of my life.

 

[Hivemind]

Nicklas Backstrom has 0G and 2 assists in his last 8 games played, including the playoffs.

 

[koalabear9301]

Even if McMichael isn't putting points up, his defense has been good enough to keep him up here. Don't really think he's "struggling".

 

[crab]

I would be more concerned too but he was pretty invisible tonight while his cold streak continues.

Hagelin has been invisible for 20 games, you should be more concerned for him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So, to get this straight, when twabby uses points/60 it’s cherry-picking (even though he was responding to a comment specifically about point production), and when he responds to the cherry-picking argument by posting stats on overall impact you don’t care because points matter. I’m used to people moving the goalposts, but you don’t often see someone move the goalposts right back to where they were before they moved them! Kinda feel like you’re arguing this because of who made the point more than anything else.

yes, when you pick one stat and then try to compare it against Backstrom and Oshie (when we all know they bring a hell of a lot more to the table than one isolated scoring stat)….it’s a disingenuous point to make IMO. But whatever, Twabby can stand on his own 2 feet without you.

 

[txpd]

If we assume point-scoring is distributed similarly to a Poisson distribution .

Why would we assume that? They eye test tells me that McMichael has been getting chances in most games. In recent games he is become increasingly irrelevant. This might be the stress of trying to produce or just getting tired from the load of an NHL schedule. Its common for young players. When the struggles to score and produce reach critical mass often the player starts to lose his game. Frustration is not an analytical stat.