Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[Calicaps]

that guy has legit genes. he is that talented and mentally prepared. he has elite recover. He plays pro level guitar and looks like a fashion model.

he's dreamy.

 

[zappa4ever]

I suppose I should have done my due diligence before posting +/- , but I don't care that much, nor care about arguing at length

"Kuzy Hill" is just a strange hill to plant your flag on to defend to the nth degree; the eye test completely disagrees with fancy stats

There's a reason 'Kuzy Cares' is such a well known sarcastic meme in Capsland

I am very glad that you brought this up. Here is the breakdown of where Kuznetsov's +/- comes from:

Strength	Goals For	Goals Against	Differential
5v5	6	1	+5
5v3	0	1	-1
6v5	0	3	-3
5v6	0	1	-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Someone put the popcorn on....

 

[Rayquaza64]

i think the only possible logical conclusion is to trade absolutely everyone. no other possible conclusion can come from an overtime loss

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That’s one option....let’s put a pin in that one...and never revisit it.

 

[Raikkonen]

Kuzy's made the tying goal and didnt prevent one in OT. Impactful hockey!

 

[twabby]

Kuzy's made the tying goal and didnt prevent one in OT. Impactful hockey!

A full standings point of impact to be precise!

 

[Ridley Simon]

Me or @txpd.

I'll call him out when he plays crappy like he did for most of last season. But, since we all love stats, here are his numbers:

Player	xGF/60	xGA/60	xGF%
Nick Jensen	2.24	1.72	56.57
Dmitry Orlov	2.1	2.06	50.49
Justin Schultz	1.98	1.96	50.36
Zdeno Chara	2.18	2.15	50.26
Trevor van Riemsdyk	2.34	2.51	48.21
Brenden Dillon	1.83	2.11	46.39
John Carlson	1.79	2.15	45.37

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Best xGF% and best xGA/60 by a mile.

Here's his usage:

Certainly looks like he's getting his good results in non-sheltered minutes.

Here are his on-ice results in picture form:

View attachment 399560

Generates chances at a higher rate than the team on average AND suppresses chances against better than the team on average. Looks pretty good to me.

He's also formed a killer duo with Orlov: they sport 65% xGF together! Eventually I'd like to see them back together, they complement each other very nicely.

Good point. You and Tex are equally supportive.

Hey hey — I have no issues with it. I’ve been known to support a lot of players on this site over the past 25yrs (silly isn’t it? 25yrs on this site??) that weren’t popular.

I respect conviction. More than I can say.

 

[AussieCapsFan]

Simple, believable and as valuable a stat as many others:
Kuzy +/- = Zero

Vrana's a +4 - take that!

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

It is definitely within the realm of possibility that Peter Laviolette is not a perfect coach.

So you do or don’t think he’s doing a good job with Kuznetsov? A few pages ago you established that Kuznetsov is succeeding largely in part to the choicest of deployments and matchups, so if I’m following the logic tree then Lavi is doing a good job of giving Kuznetsov deployments in the offensive zone against opponents below his caliber and he’s doing a bad job of giving him more TOI?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Jensen currently provides better value for money than Orlov.

Yeah but who doesn’t?

 

[twabby]

So you do or don’t think he’s doing a good job with Kuznetsov? A few pages ago you established that Kuznetsov is succeeding largely in part to the choicest of deployments and matchups, so if I’m following the logic tree then Lavi is doing a good job of giving Kuznetsov deployments in the offensive zone against opponents below his caliber and he’s doing a bad job of giving him more TOI?

I wouldn't quite characterize my position as you did here. I think so far Kuznetsov has done well independent of his deployment, but that his deployment has helped juice his on-ice numbers some. I'd like to see Laviolette give him more TOI, along with Vrana, because I don't think they need these choice deployments in order to be successful. The team as a whole would IMO benefit from them getting more ice time.

 

[twabby]

I mentioned it in the GDT but someone who has escaped criticism this year is Tom Wilson, who has really been disappointing so far. The numbers don't paint a pretty picture: he's ~45% shot share, and 47% xGF. In picture form:

The team fares worse with him both offensively and defensively with him on the ice than off it, at least in terms of chances.

Here's a WOWY chart:

Pretty much every player with the exception of Ovechkin have fared better away from Wilson than with him. I suspected at first that Ovechkin was a big drag on Wilson and that this was perhaps the explanation for Wilson's underperformance this year, but the numbers seem to indicate that Wilson has actually done worse away from Ovechkin than with him.

I also thought that maybe Wilson was getting some really tough assignments, but that's not the case either.

Competition seems pretty neutral, maybe plays against the #1D a little more than average and plays against the second line more than average.

And in terms of zone-starts, he is heavily deployed in the offensive zone: 78% o-zone start ratio, 17th most generous deployment in the NHL out of 371 forwards. He's getting some pretty choice deployments himself, and is doing nothing with them.

I'm not surprised that Wilson escapes criticism. He's put up a decent number of points, he's tough, he's willing to drop the gloves. Stylistically he's the anti-Kuznetsov. But if we want the Capitals to be a better team, I think Wilson needs to turn his game around.

And yes, Ovechkin is the main reason why the team stinks at 5v5, but at least posters here are giving him a rightful amount of criticism. Wilson so far has escaped this same criticism, and players like Vrana and Kuznetsov have instead received unwarranted blame for the team's 5v5 woes so far.

 

[Misery74]

There are a lot of bloated salaries on this team. I honestly do not think, if they make the playoffs, they are a threat to win anything at this point.

They need to shake up the locker room. Kuznetsov is the obvious choice. He is just going through the motions out there.

Thanks for the Cup, but you gotta go.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I mentioned it in the GDT but someone who has escaped criticism this year is Tom Wilson, who has really been disappointing so far. The numbers don't paint a pretty picture: he's ~45% shot share, and 47% xGF. In picture form:

View attachment 399954

The team fares worse with him both offensively and defensively with him on the ice than off it, at least in terms of chances.

Here's a WOWY chart:

Pretty much every player with the exception of Ovechkin have fared better away from Wilson than with him. I suspected at first that Ovechkin was a big drag on Wilson and that this was perhaps the explanation for Wilson's underperformance this year, but the numbers seem to indicate that Wilson has actually done worse away from Ovechkin than with him.

I also thought that maybe Wilson was getting some really tough assignments, but that's not the case either.

Competition seems pretty neutral, maybe plays against the #1D a little more than average and plays against the second line more than average.

And in terms of zone-starts, he is heavily deployed in the offensive zone: 78% o-zone start ratio, 17th most generous deployment in the NHL out of 371 forwards. He's getting some pretty choice deployments himself, and is doing nothing with them.

I'm not surprised that Wilson escapes criticism. He's put up a decent number of points, he's tough, he's willing to drop the gloves. Stylistically he's the anti-Kuznetsov. But if we want the Capitals to be a better team, I think Wilson needs to turn his game around.

And yes, Ovechkin is the main reason why the team stinks at 5v5, but at least posters here are giving him a rightful amount of criticism. Wilson so far has escaped this same criticism, and players like Vrana and Kuznetsov have instead received unwarranted blame for the team's 5v5 woes so far.

Good stuff, as usual. My opinion: I think Tom is injured and playing at maybe 75-80% capacity. He started out as arguably our best player and then had that mysterious injury where he missed a game or two and I don't think it's a coincidence that his game has dropped off since that happened. He was playing tremendous hockey at the beginning of the season but he really hasn't looked right the past month or so.

I always go back to that Brooks Laich quote (I think it was Brooks) who said that elite NHL players don't suddenly become bad overnight. If those guys are struggling it's almost always a nagging injury that they're trying to play through and I think that's the case here as well. I also don't think it's a coincidence that the team has struggled to score goals at 5-on-5 over the same period that Tom has struggled -- he really opens up space for the other guys on his line when he's doing his thing.

I remember reading this quote from him and thinking that it doesn't sound encouraging.

“If you look through the film of the game, you’re not going to find anything,” Wilson said. “It was a really weird one. It’s something I’ve never had before. Mentally I’m dealing with that too with how it’s feeling and not having experience in the past. It’s one of those things that’s probably fairly specific to hockey but something that I’ve just got to be careful with. It wasn’t one play or another. It was just kind of an unlucky thing that happened during a shift.”

 

[twabby]

Good stuff, as usual. My opinion: I think Tom is injured and playing at maybe 75-80% capacity. He started out as arguably our best player and then had that mysterious injury where he missed a game or two and I don't think it's a coincidence that his game has dropped off since that happened. He was playing tremendous hockey at the beginning of the season but he really hasn't looked right the past month or so.

I always go back to that Brooks Laich quote (I think it was Brooks) who said that elite NHL players don't suddenly become bad overnight. If those guys are struggling it's almost always a nagging injury that they're trying to play through and I think that's the case here as well. I also don't think it's a coincidence that the team has struggled to score goals at 5-on-5 over the same period that Tom has struggled -- he really opens up space for the other guys on his line when he's doing his thing.

I remember reading this quote from him and thinking that it doesn't sound encouraging.

It's possible that his injury has slowed him down a bit, but oddly enough his on-ice metrics are pretty much identical before and after the injury: -3.98% relative xGF before the injury, -3.97% after the injury. 45% xGF both before and after. Similar deployments and everything.

I think if he says it's still bothering him then sure, it's likely a factor, but it doesn't seem like he was doing very well even before the injury.

 

[g00n]

Wilson is a playoff warrior and will right the ship imo

 

[twabby]

I think he has a good opportunity, like others, to improve as the season goes along. It's a new coach and system and COVID has really messed things up.

It's just curious that Wilson's name is rarely if ever brought up as a disappointment so far when others who are far less deserving of scorn IMO (Kuznetsov, Vrana, Jensen, Orlov, Panik) are being trashed in the GDTs.

 

[Corby78]

Are we seriously using fancy stats to rip TW?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Listening to Tom Wilson on EITM he doesnt seen nearly as worried that we suck like some of the posters here. He did mention its hard to adjust to all the changes with the game times and learning Lavis system

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Are we seriously using fancy stats to rip TW?

you don’t like the ninja distraction techniques being used?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wilson is a playoff warrior and will right the ship imo

13 in 15 while dinged up and bringing it every shift.....

if only more of our players had such an adrift ship....

 

[Raikkonen]

Gmbm should lowball Ovechkin because of lazy looks and less goals than Matthews.
I mean its a perfect opportunity.

 

[twabby]

I'm just trying to get to the bottom of why some players get criticism and some don't.

I'll freely admit that I am not solely concerned about winning and losing. It's why I'm not making a post about Ovechkin's struggles. He's probably my favorite athlete of all time. That being said, if someone does criticize him as hurting the team I'm not going to come to his defense because frankly he has been bad in that respect.

Likewise if you want to criticize Kuznetsov or Vrana because you don't like their style of game or whatever then fine! Who am I to argue?

And if you don't want to criticize Tom Wilson because he makes big hits and fights people and you like that then awesome, no one can tell you what you do and don't like!

But if we are are approaching this from a "who is helping the team win games?" angle, or perhaps more importantly "who is going to help the team win games in the future given their current level of play?" then that's where you'll get a disagreement from me.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Gmbm should lowball Ovechkin because of lazy looks and less goals than Matthews.
I mean its a perfect opportunity.

Lowball suggests a bit of a punitive offer....but I’m starting to think you give Ovy the same cap hit as Nicky and be done with it....is that considered a lowball?

At this point Ovechkin is being paid on merit the rest of his career, and unless the number he wants is totally unreasonable, I bite the bullet.