Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[txpd]

Wasn't expecting this.

that guy has legit genes. he is that talented and mentally prepared. he has elite recover. He plays pro level guitar and looks like a fashion model.

 

[txpd]

Someone pointed out, he wasn't at MedStar. So it's probably not a team-sanctioned practice or anything.

isnt he in NYC?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

isnt he in NYC?

Yes if you see the full video he posted you can see him driving past New York bridges

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

that guy has legit genes. he is that talented and mentally prepared. he has elite recover. He plays pro level guitar and looks like a fashion model.

good stock for a clone army.

 

[twabby]

Fine. Caps get 4 goals; Devils get 3 goals. Caps win. Differential is +1. But you don't win individual hockey games by having a net differential of +1/60. That could mean you lost three games each by 1 goal and won one game by 4. You're still losing.

Yes, that is a rather remote possibility that doesn't ever manifest in reality. The correlation between goal differential and points percentage over the past 3 seasons is extremely strong: r = 0.983 (data taken from Natural Stat Trick here: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick). In other words if the team has a good goal differential, they are almost certainly also going to have a very strong points percentage.

You need to construct a rather elaborate and frankly unbelievable story to say that Kuznetsov having a strong positive goal differential is actually not beneficial for the team as a whole.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Hey - Sens fan here. Just wondering who sits for you guys with a healthy blueline. I seem to remember that Kempny and Orlov have played some RD (and maybe Dillon?)... do one of them slide over to bump Jensen out?

Further to that point - do you see the Caps moving Jensen if the opportunity were to arise?

 

[Ridley Simon]

It’s a discussion about a 7.8 mil player who should produce like one.

I think you’ve accepted his admitted half-assed effort and resulting production over the years as what he should be delivering.....

I believe that to be a flawed perspective, because he should be producing more IMO.

at this point it looks like the player is what he is and won’t change....I am accepting of that. However that doesn’t change that he’s underperforming IMO.

edit: I’m in no way denigrating his defense when he does well, or that the ice might tilt some, but it’s not enough at his cost.

Ok, so....

“yes” you aren’t a big believer in twabby’s fancy stats “proof” (you wanted to be convinced...so it’s obv not convincing you)

“yes” you don’t like the contract. His play for the money (ROI on the contract) isn’t good enough

I’m not stating he’s anything. Just trying to understand what people are feeling here.

sounds like it’s “he’s not scoring enough points to be a 7.8m a year player!!!”

succinctly.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Hey - Sens fan here. Just wondering who sits for you guys with a healthy blueline. I seem to remember that Kempny and Orlov have played some RD (and maybe Dillon?)... do one of them slide over to bump Jensen out?

Further to that point - do you see the Caps moving Jensen if the opportunity were to arise?

Right now it’s Siegenthaler and vanRiemsdyk sitting when all healthy.

Kempny is a ways away. IF he comes back on time to be a factor AND his 2 week conditioning stint in Hershey shows him to be capable to return to the NHL ice... barring any other injuries, Caps would need a trade to fit him in.

Jensen seems a likely candidate to get slotted down to 7th and or traded. And it’s not a knock on Jensen, he’s been playing pretty well over the last half dozen games or so.

but who else would they slot out?

Won’t be Carlson, Dillon, Orlov, Schultz. No chance. I’d be very hard pressed to see Chara pushed t0 7th on a regular basis (or the playoffs, if the Caps make it).

So by process of elimination — its Jensen

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Right now it’s Siegenthaler and vanRiemsdyk sitting when all healthy.

Kempny is a ways away. IF he comes back on time to be a factor AND his 2 week conditioning stint in Hershey shows him to be capable to return to the NHL ice... barring any other injuries, Caps would need a trade to fit him in.

Jensen seems a likely candidate to get slotted down to 7th and or traded. And it’s not a knock on Jensen, he’s been playing pretty well over the last half dozen games or so.

but who else would they slot out?

Won’t be Carlson, Dillon, Orlov, Schultz. No chance. I’d be very hard pressed to see Chara pushed t0 7th on a regular basis (or the playoffs, if the Caps make it).

So by process of elimination — its Jensen

Thanks. Kinda what I was thinking, too.

What would you guys be expecting in return for Jensen? Would it take anything more than a smaller contract or two? My thought from Ottawa was J Brown (2 x 1.2m) + Wolanin (900k, RFA) for Jensen. Gives you guys a few cost-controlled bottom of the line-up DMen while allowing you guys to save about 1.3m this year, 1.3m next year, and 2.5m the year after. Wolanin has some potential, I was a big believer in him, but hasnt done enough in Ottawa and likely lost his longterm spot on our very crowded left side to Brannstrom.

Obviously its not huge value, but given the guys who are passing through waivers I felt it could be appealing. I could see Ottawa adding a mid pick, too, but probably not much more than that.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Thanks. Kinda what I was thinking, too.

What would you guys be expecting in return for Jensen? Would it take anything more than a smaller contract or two? My thought from Ottawa was J Brown (2 x 1.2m) + Wolanin (900k, RFA) for Jensen. Gives you guys a few cost-controlled bottom of the line-up DMen while allowing you guys to save about 1.3m this year, 1.3m next year, and 2.5m the year after. Wolanin has some potential, I was a big believer in him, but hasnt done enough in Ottawa and likely lost his longterm spot on our very crowded left side to Brannstrom.

Obviously its not huge value, but given the guys who are passing through waivers I felt it could be appealing. I could see Ottawa adding a mid pick, too, but probably not much more than that.

I don’t think the team would want any salary back at all. They’d still have Fehverary (or LaDue) as their 9th d-man. No need for anyone else.

same w forwards. Sprong, Carr, Sgarbossa, McMichael, Maillet are all not playing now as it is.

goalie is the only place that could be a thing. But Lundqvist is skating again, so maybe he’s the back back back back up plan.

futures is all the Caps need. Whatever that would look like.

OR — adding Jensen as a smaller piece to a larger deal for an upgrade to the better players.

that’s where they stand this year

 

[zappa4ever]

Simple, believable and as valuable a stat as many others:
Kuzy +/- = Zero

...

You need to construct a rather elaborate and frankly unbelievable story to say that Kuznetsov having a strong positive goal differential is actually not beneficial for the team as a whole.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I don’t think the team would want any salary back at all. They’d still have Fehverary (or LaDue) as their 9th d-man. No need for anyone else.

same w forwards. Sprong, Carr, Sgarbossa, McMichael, Maillet are all not playing now as it is.

goalie is the only place that could be a thing. But Lundqvist is skating again, so maybe he’s the back back back back up plan.

futures is all the Caps need. Whatever that would look like.

OR — adding Jensen as a smaller piece to a larger deal for an upgrade to the better players.

that’s where they stand this year

Definitely makes sense, but I think it would be tough to find a team willing to take on 3x2.5m for a 5/6/7D without sending something back. Might make sense for you guys to just play wait and see with him.

 

[Melkor]

Lundqvist might help to level out that bad goaltending situation a bit short term but he's not the answer for the playoffs. Especially after what he went through lately. He wasn't the answer at the time of the signing anyways. They need a legit goaltender. Seems a bit unlucky that out of all those talented russian goalies who invaded the league in the last years the Caps got the most problematic one.

 

[twabby]

Thanks. Kinda what I was thinking, too.

What would you guys be expecting in return for Jensen? Would it take anything more than a smaller contract or two? My thought from Ottawa was J Brown (2 x 1.2m) + Wolanin (900k, RFA) for Jensen. Gives you guys a few cost-controlled bottom of the line-up DMen while allowing you guys to save about 1.3m this year, 1.3m next year, and 2.5m the year after. Wolanin has some potential, I was a big believer in him, but hasnt done enough in Ottawa and likely lost his longterm spot on our very crowded left side to Brannstrom.

Obviously its not huge value, but given the guys who are passing through waivers I felt it could be appealing. I could see Ottawa adding a mid pick, too, but probably not much more than that.

Kempny, if "healthy", is the 7D IMO. Even before his achilles injury he tore his hamstring and never returned to his 2018-2019 form. Barring any drastic drops in their play none of the current top 6 D on the team should sit unless Kempny just absolutely lights it up, which shouldn't be expected at this point.

Jensen has probably been their best defensive defenseman this season and arguably one of their best 2 or 3 defenseman overall and he's coming off a pretty good postseason despite the rest of the team laying a big fat egg. He'd be way down the list of players to trade, especially if the return is what you mention here.

 

[Ridley Simon]

@twabby is probably our boards biggest Jensen fan.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Kempny, if "healthy", is the 7D IMO. Even before his achilles injury he tore his hamstring and never returned to his 2018-2019 form. Barring any drastic drops in their play none of the current top 6 D on the team should sit unless Kempny just absolutely lights it up, which shouldn't be expected at this point.

Jensen has probably been their best defensive defenseman this season and arguably one of their best 2 or 3 defenseman overall and he's coming off a pretty good postseason despite the rest of the team laying a big fat egg. He'd be way down the list of players to trade, especially if the return is what you mention here.

Interesting, thanks for the response. I've always liked Jensen but have just heard bad things over the last while. Glad to hear he's coming back around.

Do you think you guys will try to clear salary elsewhere? I feel like you guys have a lot of expensive-but-serviceable depth... might be easier for you guys to move your salaried depth players than other teams.

 

[Calicaps]

Yes, that is a rather remote possibility that doesn't ever manifest in reality. The correlation between goal differential and points percentage over the past 3 seasons is extremely strong: r = 0.983 (data taken from Natural Stat Trick here: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick). In other words if the team has a good goal differential, they are almost certainly also going to have a very strong points percentage.

You need to construct a rather elaborate and frankly unbelievable story to say that Kuznetsov having a strong positive goal differential is actually not beneficial for the team as a whole.

"Beneficial" is not the bar. Difference-maker is the bar. That's the whole point. These stats aren't wrong per se, they just don't compensate for the fact that he's not playing to his potential or contract.

 

[traparatus]

Kempny, if "healthy", is the 7D IMO. Even before his achilles injury he tore his hamstring and never returned to his 2018-2019 form. Barring any drastic drops in their play none of the current top 6 D on the team should sit unless Kempny just absolutely lights it up, which shouldn't be expected at this point.

Jensen has probably been their best defensive defenseman this season and arguably one of their best 2 or 3 defenseman overall and he's coming off a pretty good postseason despite the rest of the team laying a big fat egg. He'd be way down the list of players to trade, especially if the return is what you mention here.

That right there is a good explanation for Caps being one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

 

[twabby]

Simple, believable and as valuable a stat as many others:
Kuzy +/- = Zero

I am very glad that you brought this up. Here is the breakdown of where Kuznetsov's +/- comes from:

Strength	Goals For	Goals Against	Differential
5v5	6	1	+5
5v3	0	1	-1
6v5	0	3	-3
5v6	0	1	-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

That right there is a good explanation for Caps being one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Not that our two best D have been a train wreck this season right?

 

[twabby]

"Beneficial" is not the bar. Difference-maker is the bar. That's the whole point. These stats aren't wrong per se, they just don't compensate for the fact that he's not playing to his potential or contract.

Kuznetsov currently has the best 5v5 goal differential on the team, and the 15th best in the entire NHL (out of 570 qualified players). That's a difference maker IMO, but you may disagree and that's ok!

 

[tenken00]

I am very glad that you brought this up. Here is the breakdown of where Kuznetsov's +/- comes from:

Strength	Goals For	Goals Against	Differential
5v3	0	1	-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I can't believe that happened. Not a good showing for Kuzy.

 

[twabby]

That right there is a good explanation for Caps being one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

I'd go with bad goaltending and bad luck as the primary culprits, and then I'd list every other defenseman before I'd list Nick Jensen as the reason they concede too much.

 

[traparatus]

Not that our two best D have been a train wreck this season right?

Well, yeah. I like Jensen and I don't understand some of the disdain fans show toward this guy but he has no business being in conversation for best defenseman on any NHL team. He is (or should be) on ours.

Kinda like last playoffs. Jensen was our best D. We got obliterated.

 

[twabby]

@twabby is probably our boards biggest Jensen fan.

Me or @txpd.

I'll call him out when he plays crappy like he did for most of last season. But, since we all love stats, here are his numbers:

Player	xGF/60	xGA/60	xGF%
Nick Jensen	2.24	1.72	56.57
Dmitry Orlov	2.1	2.06	50.49
Justin Schultz	1.98	1.96	50.36
Zdeno Chara	2.18	2.15	50.26
Trevor van Riemsdyk	2.34	2.51	48.21
Brenden Dillon	1.83	2.11	46.39
John Carlson	1.79	2.15	45.37

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Best xGF% and best xGA/60 by a mile.

Here's his usage:

Certainly looks like he's getting his good results in non-sheltered minutes.

Here are his on-ice results in picture form:

Generates chances at a higher rate than the team on average AND suppresses chances against better than the team on average. Looks pretty good to me.

He's also formed a killer duo with Orlov: they sport 65% xGF together! Eventually I'd like to see them back together, they complement each other very nicely.