Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[hb12xchamps]

This board has been an odd place the last few days lol

Missed in all the hater talk: Samsonov back to Hershey for tonight’s game against the Baby Pens

 

[tenken00]

I'm just trying to get to the bottom of why some players get criticism and some don't.

I'll freely admit that I am not solely concerned about winning and losing. It's why I'm not making a post about Ovechkin's struggles. He's probably my favorite athlete of all time. That being said, if someone does criticize him as hurting the team I'm not going to come to his defense because frankly he has been bad in that respect.

Likewise if you want to criticize Kuznetsov or Vrana because you don't like their style of game or whatever then fine! Who am I to argue?

And if you don't want to criticize Tom Wilson because he makes big hits and fights people and you like that then awesome, no one can tell you what you do and don't like!

But if we are are approaching this from a "who is helping the team win games?" angle, or perhaps more importantly "who is going to help the team win games in the future given their current level of play?" then that's where you'll get a disagreement from me.

I think it has to do with roles on the team. I expect Tom to make big hits and make opposing players hesitate. That's his role and he's damn good at it. Making guys think twice isn't necessarily shown analytically. He can also shoot and make plays, and he's good at that too, but I see that as the cherry on top.

With Vrana I expect him to score, and anything else is a bonus. If he's not scoring like we expect, what else can he bring?

I actually saw Vrana lay out a few hits on the boards in the offensive zone last night and I was pleasantly surprised. Wouldn't mind seeing that a little more often. It's not his game, no. But it was a pleasant surprise. And effective too.

 

[Calicaps]

I'm just trying to get to the bottom of why some players get criticism and some don't.

I'll freely admit that I am not solely concerned about winning and losing. It's why I'm not making a post about Ovechkin's struggles. He's probably my favorite athlete of all time. That being said, if someone does criticize him as hurting the team I'm not going to come to his defense because frankly he has been bad in that respect.

Likewise if you want to criticize Kuznetsov or Vrana because you don't like their style of game or whatever then fine! Who am I to argue?

And if you don't want to criticize Tom Wilson because he makes big hits and fights people and you like that then awesome, no one can tell you what you do and don't like!

But if we are are approaching this from a "who is helping the team win games?" angle, or perhaps more importantly "who is going to help the team win games in the future given their current level of play?" then that's where you'll get a disagreement from me.

As I noted in the GDT, no one is judging Kuz exclusively on points, despite all your snark. The issue is, as @tenken00 said, what is their JOB on the team. Kuzy job is to first and foremost to generate actual offense but it does also involve using his absurd skill set to drive the play and perform at least basically in a defensive role. Last night, for instance, he did the main job but failed utterly at the last part when it mattered most. THIS is why folks are frustrated. Having nice stats is meaningless when he's a liability, either through not scoring or not working on D. Tom Wilson brings the effort and often the production and everyone can see it.

 

[twabby]

As I noted in the GDT, no one is judging Kuz exclusively on points, despite all your snark. The issue is, as @tenken00 said, what is their JOB on the team. Kuzy job is to first and foremost to generate actual offense but it does also involve using his absurd skill set to drive the play and perform at least basically in a defensive role. Last night, for instance, he did the main job but failed utterly at the last part when it mattered most. THIS is why folks are frustrated. Having nice stats is meaningless when he's a liability, either through not scoring or not working on D. Tom Wilson brings the effort and often the production and everyone can see it.

So again, I don't think we're addressing the same question.

Effort doesn't win games, otherwise teams would field lineups exclusively full of the hardest-working 3rd and 4th liners and Connor McDavid wouldn't be in the league. Playing a role or doing your job doesn't win games unless the role is to generate a positive goal differential. I'm not so sure hitting people does that. I'm not so sure that being strong on the boards really contributes much to a positive goal differential. I'm not so sure that looking like you try hard does much either. @Hivemind made a nice post earlier about how some really good players often make everything look effortless.

Individual points also do not win games own their own. They're beneficial, for sure, because they indicate goals have been scored by your team. But points are also fleeting and subject to incredible amounts of luck. Someone's ass being pointed at exactly the right angle is often the difference between a goal and a harmless shot deflected away from the net, for example. It's why expected goals are so useful: xGF predicts future goal differential (and therefore winning) much better than individual points, at least at 5v5. (As an aside, I think Wilson has largely been good at driving goal differential on the PK)

So it may be the case the Tom Wilson is bringing the effort and even the individual production this year, and he's even got a pretty good goal differential at 5v5! But unless his quality of play changes, then I would expect his goal differential to start dropping.

And based on Kuznetsov's quality of play this season if he changes nothing I would expect him to continue to improve upon his already impressive goal differential and probably also increase his point-scoring rate.

 

[traparatus]

On a slightly more positive note, that little Sheary fella has been a pleasant surprise. Never a lack of effort and can actually put the puck in the net when an opportunity presents itself.

I'm guessing he is not going to keep shooting at 31% success rate but looks capable of 10G, 10A season. For a league minimum, that's not too shabby. We didn't even have to draft him or spend 6 years developing him in the minors and we get a perfectly reasonable 3rd-4th liner.

 

[Hivemind]

I didn’t realize that Sheary was already 28. I assumed he was like 25 or 26.

 

[traparatus]

Eller looked so confused last game, naively trying to cycle the puck behind the net. Ovechkin is just standing there, looking at him. 'Yo, Lars. You must have me confused with someone else. That puck is a good 12 feet away and I ain't your fetching boy. I'm so upset now, I'm going for a change.'

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think he has a good opportunity, like others, to improve as the season goes along. It's a new coach and system and COVID has really messed things up.

It's just curious that Wilson's name is rarely if ever brought up as a disappointment so far when others who are far less deserving of scorn IMO (Kuznetsov, Vrana, Jensen, Orlov, Panik) are being trashed in the GDTs.

Well, you tell him he stinks. Don’t make Handsome Top Line Tom mad???

 

[max21]

Interesting read right now in the trade rumors Kuznetsov to Minnesota lol

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Watched Hershey’s game tonight...Sammy didn’t look great.

At what point (if ever) does BMac decide he needs a goalie for this season at least.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Also, is it weird that I feel the Caps played much better when they were missing quite a few players? Maybe it wasn’t sustainable but they sure looked harder to play against than now.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Also, is it weird that I feel the Caps played much better when they were missing quite a few players? Maybe it wasn’t sustainable but they sure looked harder to play against than now.

We play the same teams 8 times each. It like a playoff series with every team in our Div and those teams have coaches too

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

We play the same teams 8 times each. It like a playoff series with every team in our Div and those teams have coaches too

Dude. It’s an observation. You don’t need to tell me the obvious.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Dude. It’s an observation. You don’t need to tell me the obvious.

I cant tell the troll posts from the real posts anymore. So much flaming on the Caps the last week

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Interesting read right now in the trade rumors Kuznetsov to Minnesota lol

That turned into hot garbage real quick. That thing should be locked and password protected.

 

[pman25]

Do we still need a goalie?

can we send some combination of Jensen/Panik/Hagelin/Hathaway and a pick for Kuemper? Seems like they got Adin Hill waiting in the wings who they will want to protect for expansion. Arizona also needs a Dman with a contract to expose for the upcoming expansion draft and Jensen would fit the bill...

Arizona would probably want a 1st rounder as well which I could probably do so long as it is lottery protected. And they take a couple contracts back obv. Feels like something can work here

 

[tenken00]

I mentioned it in the GDT but someone who has escaped criticism this year is Tom Wilson, who has really been disappointing so far. The numbers don't paint a pretty picture: he's ~45% shot share, and 47% xGF. In picture form:

View attachment 399954

The team fares worse with him both offensively and defensively with him on the ice than off it, at least in terms of chances.

Here's a WOWY chart:

Pretty much every player with the exception of Ovechkin have fared better away from Wilson than with him. I suspected at first that Ovechkin was a big drag on Wilson and that this was perhaps the explanation for Wilson's underperformance this year, but the numbers seem to indicate that Wilson has actually done worse away from Ovechkin than with him.

I also thought that maybe Wilson was getting some really tough assignments, but that's not the case either.

Competition seems pretty neutral, maybe plays against the #1D a little more than average and plays against the second line more than average.

And in terms of zone-starts, he is heavily deployed in the offensive zone: 78% o-zone start ratio, 17th most generous deployment in the NHL out of 371 forwards. He's getting some pretty choice deployments himself, and is doing nothing with them.

I'm not surprised that Wilson escapes criticism. He's put up a decent number of points, he's tough, he's willing to drop the gloves. Stylistically he's the anti-Kuznetsov. But if we want the Capitals to be a better team, I think Wilson needs to turn his game around.

And yes, Ovechkin is the main reason why the team stinks at 5v5, but at least posters here are giving him a rightful amount of criticism. Wilson so far has escaped this same criticism, and players like Vrana and Kuznetsov have instead received unwarranted blame for the team's 5v5 woes so far.

Hey @twabby. Could you put up all of these for Backstrom so far this year please? I'm actually really curious. Thanks!

 

[twabby]

Hey @twabby. Could you put up all of these for Backstrom so far this year please? I'm actually really curious. Thanks!

Sure:

Not great at first glance. Offensive production is much worse with him on the ice than off, defense is about the same.

My first thought again is that Ovechkin is dragging him down. Unlike with Wilson, it appears that Backstrom does see a significant uptick away from Ovechkin: 50% xGF away from Ovie and 41% with him, and that's with slightly more difficult zone starts away from Ovie (70% o-zone with Ovie, 59% without him).

Of course it's still not great, because Backstrom away from Ovie still isn't generating much in terms of offense, but is rather tightening up on defense. Via HockeyViz, Backstrom is a -22% xGF/60 relative to league average without Ovie on the ice, but is also -26% xGA/60 relative to league average defensively (negative is good for xGA).

Here's his QoC:

Here are the WOWYs:

In all, I'd call Backstrom much more of a mixed bag than either Ovechkin or Wilson at 5v5. Not great, but not nearly as bad as the aforementioned two. But he does need to step up his game IMO, points be damned.

 

[twabby]

I really do recommend people check out hockeyviz.com. This is the first year where I've decided to subscribe to the site as a Patreon member, but there are still lots of features available for free. Being able to look at pictures is much easier than combing through tables of numbers.

 

[Raikkonen]

Advanced stats say Backstrom isnt good this season?
Okay

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Watched Hershey’s game tonight...Sammy didn’t look great.

At what point (if ever) does BMac decide he needs a goalie for this season at least.

just finished the game....4 goals against on 19 shots. He wasn’t good.

not the type of outing you’re hoping for in a guy you’re looking to see rally after going down again....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Advanced stats say Backstrom isnt good this season?
Okay

pretty sure that was a setup ask....someone waltzed right into it lol...

 

[tenken00]

pretty sure that was a setup ask....someone waltzed right into it lol...

Lol, while I do admit that I wanted to see what the advanced stats say about the best scorer/point getter on the team, I wasn't trying to set anything up. I do believe advanced stats are a good supplement to review a player's on-ice performance, but yea... I don't think it should be the determining factor. Especially in a game like hockey where there are so many different variables to account for in a sport that has so many unpredictable situations and constant movement. Way too much to account for than just plug-and-play 15 numbers.

Even in a sport that's way more susceptible to analytics such as baseball, teams that heavily relied on sabermetrics haven't really won except the Astros (cheaters!!!) and the Cubs (they had a loaded super roster all reaching their prime anyways).

But still if you take it at face value only, analytics are a good tool to use, especially for certain situations. I just asked @twabby because I didn't want to make payments to yet another subscription. I always wonder where does all my money go when I haven't gone out in a year, and I think my 23945466293 subscriptions and online purchases might have something to do with it

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ok ok I partially believe you.

 

[twabby]

Instead of focusing on individual players with the next post, I think it'd be interesting to focus on the top 9 vs. the 4th line.

The 4th line currently sports a 47% xGF%. Not great on the surface, but they also only have a 15% zone start ratio and are going against this competition:

(I picked Nic Dowd's chart, but Hagelin and Hathaway have similar QoC charts)

Given their extreme shutdown usage 47% xGF is actually...decent? Good? I don't know, it's certainly not bad.

The idea behind having them be the shutdown line is that will free up the other lines to feast on worse opposition and cushier deployments. But so far this hasn't really happened: the top 9 is only collectively a 50.6% xGF despite enjoying 68% zone start ratio and much lesser competition as a whole.

I'm not sure that this experiment will work, mainly because I don't think the 4th line should be getting that much ice time compared to the top 9, but given their assignments so far they actually haven't done a bad job. It's the top 9 that needs to improve if this strategy is going to work.