Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Would the Kuz haters trade him for Jeff Skinner? He was a healthy scratch last night

 

[zappa4ever]

per 60 skews raw stats a lot, and dismisses the fact that Kuz is often not getting Top-6 minutes

TOI in Kuzy's 9 games:
3 gms 18:00 > 19:00
2 gms 16:00 > 17:00
3 gms 14:00 > 15:00
1 game 12:48
When an elite player like Kuz doesn't break 15 min.s TOI that sends up many flags that fancy stats don't account for

The non-snarky response is that he has the best goal-differential on the team on a per 60 basis. Claiming he is simply "treading water well" is the non-substance response, so I figured I'd respond in kind.

 

[Calicaps]

Would the Kuz haters trade him for Jeff Skinner? He was a healthy scratch last night

Red herring alert!

Would I trade Kuz for a guy who can't crack Buffalo's lineup? No. Does that mean Kuz is delivering on his contract and potential? Also no.

 

[Raikkonen]

Kuzy might have best per 60 points ratio against Buffalo (evening games only). But we want to see playoff performer in him, whos able to play against top players with success. And some here have their doubts so far.

 

[twabby]

goal differential and expected points! we win the Heat Map Cup... who needs real live wins or standings points anyway?

Goal differential is how you judge the winner and loser of a hockey game, and also how you acquire standings points.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

So... can he come back this year?

 

[Devil Dancer]

Wasn't expecting this.

 

[twabby]

per 60 skews raw stats a lot, and dismisses the fact that Kuz is often not getting Top-6 minutes

TOI in Kuzy's 9 games:
3 gms 18:00 > 19:00
2 gms 16:00 > 17:00
3 gms 14:00 > 15:00
1 game 12:48
When an elite player like Kuz doesn't break 15 min.s TOI that sends up many flags that fancy stats don't account for

Kuznetsov is currently getting the 6th most 5v5 ice time, 20 seconds per game behind Tom Wilson and TJ Oshie and a full 1:13 more per game than Lars Eller. He's clearly in the top 6 at even strength.

His ice time is down from prior years because he has been moved (rightfully, IMO) to the second power play unit instead of the first.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We dont have the cap space for Lundy or Kempny untill the playoffs unless we make other moves

 

[chilimac]

So... can he come back this year?

well.. color me amazed.

 

[Calicaps]

So... can he come back this year?

We dont have the cap space for Lundy or Kempny untill the playoffs unless we make other moves

first world problems

 

[Calicaps]

Goal differential is how you judge the winner and loser of a hockey game, and also how you acquire standings points.

Fine. Caps get 4 goals; Devils get 3 goals. Caps win. Differential is +1. But you don't win individual hockey games by having a net differential of +1/60. That could mean you lost three games each by 1 goal and won one game by 4. You're still losing.

 

[Raikkonen]

That guy King is determined one.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The non-snarky response is that he has the best goal-differential on the team on a per 60 basis. Claiming he is simply "treading water well" is the non-substance response, so I figured I'd respond in kind.

The irony in all of this is that Kuz is one 3pt game away from sitting at his career average in pts/game (.807). Add to it that he’s only had ONE regular season where he was over pt/game (outta 7), it seems a tad unrealistic to consider that his floor (or minimum).

he’s a 73-78 pts full season player when healthy. That’s my read. He’s started a little slow, but it sounds like perhaps he’s rounded his game more. Which is something we all wanted.

when rounding ones game, it’s not ridiculous to think some pts/game may get sacrificed some. It happens in all sports. The “all offense” guy realizes he needs to play a more rounded game and his offensive stats diminish some.

let’s see how this all roles. twabby brings up some sound evidence that Kuz game is evolving. And he probably had COVID (was that confirmed? I cannot remember) which will obviously impact him.

my further 2 cents

 

[Ridley Simon]

So... can he come back this year?

Would love it if he did

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That guy King is determined one.

Lol....think he’s not glaring at our situation and chomping at the bit to get back?

I hope his desire is infectious....

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Not confirmed he had covid but given how much longer he was out pass the 4 games you can think he had a positive test

 

[ovikovy817]

Imagine if Hank plays hockey again... This year

 

[Ridley Simon]

We dont have the cap space for Lundy or Kempny untill the playoffs unless we make other moves

very true. This *could* be part of the reason that the team hasn’t made a panic move for another G. Maybe GMBM has always known that the goal was to return this season.

or perhaps not at all. LOL

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Just thinking... IF lundy does come back before the playoffs we could waive Panik or Jensen to fit him under the cap. Maybe sending down a goalie and a min player gets us enough cap space for Lundy

 

[Devil Dancer]

Someone pointed out, he wasn't at MedStar. So it's probably not a team-sanctioned practice or anything.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The irony in all of this is that Kuz is one 3pt game away from sitting at his career average in pts/game (.807). Add to it that he’s only had ONE regular season where he was over pt/game (outta 7), it seems a tad unrealistic to consider they his floor (or minimum).

he’s a 73-78 pts full season player when healthy. That’s my read. He’s started a little slow, but it sounds like perhaps he’s rounded his game more. Which is something we all wanted.

when rounding ones game, it’s not ridiculous to think some pts/game may get sacrificed some. It happens in all sports. The “all offense” guy realizes he needs to play a more rounded game and his offensive stats diminish some.

let’s see how this all roles. twabby brings up some sound evidence that Kuz game is evolving. And he probably had COVID (was that conformed? I cannot remember) which will obviously impact him.

my further 2 cents

the problem herein begins with looking at his career average and accepting that as the baseline or NORM. He’s underproduced for his skill set (over his career) if he gave a lunch pail effort like Oshie or Wilson, or most of his teammates really...

..and I don’t buy that he’s suddenly sacrificing offense to play better defensively....if he was suddenly tenacious along the boards and playing with fire, busted his ass to suddenly dominate faceoffs, ok maybe I bite...but he’s not.

For his skill and cost, he should be around a PPG. Convince us otherwise.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Someone pointed out, he wasn't at MedStar. So it's probably not a team-sanctioned practice or anything.

liability issue I’m sure....

 

[Ridley Simon]

the problem herein begins with looking at his career average and accepting that as the baseline or NORM. He’s underproduced for his skill set if he gave a lunch pail effort like Oshie or Wilson...

..and I don’t buy that he’s suddenly sacrificing offense to play better defensively....if he was suddenly tenacious along the boards and playing with fire, ok maybe I bite...but he’s not.

For his skill and cost, he should be around a PPG. Convince us otherwise.

There are multiple ways to play defense. He’s not built physically to play the way you describe. He’d probably get hurt. Some of his worst injuries were being crunched into the boards.

He’s not ever going to be that player. But twabby’s fancy stats do show an improvement. If you don’t believe those types of stats are meaningful, then perhaps just say that.

look at Kuz’s career points/game. Year by year. Only 3 of his 6 full seasons had he been even over .9 pts/game. So again, I think your baseline is more the ceiling. 1 yr over 1pts/game. 2 yrs over .9 pts/game. 3 yrs under.

what more proof do you need? Or is this also a “hate the contract” discussion?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It’s a discussion about a 7.8 mil player who should produce like one.

I think you’ve accepted his admitted half-assed effort and resulting production over the years as what he should be delivering.....

I believe that to be a flawed perspective, because he should be producing more IMO.

at this point it looks like the player is what he is and won’t change....I am accepting of that. However that doesn’t change that he’s underperforming IMO.

edit: I’m in no way denigrating his defense when he does well, or that the ice might tilt some, but it’s not enough at his cost.