Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[twabby]

I want to be clear that I don't think Carlson is a bad player. Quite the opposite. I think his offensive impact far outweighs his defensive liability and that he is a great player.

But let's not pretend him not getting benched protecting leads is because he's good defensively.

 

[twabby]

I can see two stats the make a pretty clear statement about the state of mind of the coaching staff. Kuznetsov zone starts are almost exclusively offensive zone starts. He is playing less and less in 3rd periods protecting a lead. Add those two things together and its obvious that Kuznetsov isnt trusted defensively.

TJ Oshie, Tom Wilson, and Nicklas Backstrom all get > 70% offensive zone starts as well. This does not explain the coach's opinion of Kuznetsov's defensive play, unless you also believe that the coach thinks TJ Oshie, Tom Wilson, and Nicklas Backstrom are all defensive liabilities as well. The fact is Laviolette is giving the 4th line a ton of defensive zone starts, and that the entire top 9 is getting rather generous zone starts. I happen to think this is a pretty decent strategy.

I agree with your conclusion that he is not trusted defensively, but that is not really debated. Of course he and Vrana are not trusted. The discussion is whether they should be trusted. I think they should be.

 

[Rayquaza64]

I hope Vrana doesnt get too pissed, really dont need another burky situation

 

[txpd]

I hope Vrana doesnt get too pissed, really dont need another burky situation

Burky went on 15 and 20 game goalless and pointless streaks. Different deal entirely

 

[Rayquaza64]

Burky went on 15 and 20 game goalless and pointless streaks. Different deal entirely

i meant the request a trade and get 2 2nds part

 

[DWGie26]

i meant the request a trade and get 2 2nds part

Good for both sides. We didn’t have a proper spot for him. So we got picks. I’m ok with that.

 

[traparatus]

I hope he does have access to more data than me, otherwise I'd question what the hell the Washington Capitals are doing!

If he's doing something and it's for a good, valid reason that will lead to more wins either now or more importantly in the playoffs, then I'd say great! If having a tight leash on Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrana now will make it so that they are better players in the playoffs then great!

But Vrana had limited ice time in both years under Rierden in the regular season, and that certainly didn't help him in the playoffs. Why would that same strategy work under Laviolette? I suppose it could, but I don't think it should be the default assumption. And whatever Laviolette is doing now is certainly not working in terms of protecting multigoal leads in the regular season. Why would the current strategy work in the postseason, but not the regular season? Again, I think some of that is goaltending, but the Capitals also completely abandon attacking once they get a lead, especially in the third period.

As I have mentioned I think the far more likely explanation is not that Peter Laviolette has a private set of data that only he and the Capitals staff are privy to and that this data indicates that Vrana and Kuznetsov should get benched in third periods with a lead (the opposite of what publicly available data says), but rather that he just prefers vets and is harder on younger players. The reason I believe that is because the vast majority of NHL head coaches prefer vets and are harder on younger players, no matter how much better the younger players might be at accomplishing the goal of winning hockey games.

I think coaches simply prefer players who do what coaches want them to do. Beyond that, they prefer players who effectively pretend to do what coaches want them to do. They dislike players who dance to their own tune. That's it. There are no stats, no deep hidden reasons. Coaches think that they know best and reward players who agree with them. It's understandable. It also gets coaches fired after a couple of years on the job.

Also, what's with people getting all up in arms at the mention of Ovechkin/Carlson floating around and ignoring their defensive responsibilities?
I love Ovechkin and he is the best thing to ever happen to this team but, by God, he's taken whole months off from board battles and defensive responsibility. Ditto for John Carlson. Happy as a clam to have them on the team and truly believe that their positives far outweigh their negatives but both of them surrender bucket loads of chances and goals against.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I wonder when people will stop realizing that we won't give up Oshie in the expansion draft. He's one of the few players on this team who constantly works hard, never takes a shift off, and constantly produces for us. Not a shot we let Seattle take one of our best and arguably our best player this year for free.

Not the mention the absolute dumbest part of this “notion” that we leave Oshie unprotected? Who do they protect as the 7th F instead? Panik? LOL. Hagelin? LOL. Dowd? LOL. Sprong?? LOL. Sheary??? LOL.

I mean, honestly. And don’t anyone give me the BS “protect 4 D-man route. So we expose Oshie AND Eller AND don’t sign Ovechkin.

yeah......right. It all sound so very hivemindish to me. Let’s outsmart ourselves and think we are smarter than the rest while doing so.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Sorry to be asking this question but what will the workload of Samsonov look like for the remainder of the year... 60/40 or higher then that?

Thanks

 

[kicksavedave]

Sorry to be asking this question but what will the workload of Samsonov look like for the remainder of the year... 60/40 or higher then that?

Thanks

No one knows, not even Laviolette. He has said its game to game and whoever is playing best will get the nod. We all usually find out on game day who is in net that night.

 

[tenken00]

Sorry to be asking this question but what will the workload of Samsonov look like for the remainder of the year... 60/40 or higher then that?

Thanks

No one knows, not even Laviolette. He has said its game to game and whoever is playing best will get the nod. We all usually find out on game day who is in net that night.

And tonight

 

[tenken00]

And tonight

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

The potential expansion draft protection list could look different, depending on what we do at the TDL or even early in the offseason. I think there are some locks, but, things could be interesting if we make a hockey trade for a player that's not a pure rental.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

No one knows, not even Laviolette. He has said its game to game and whoever is playing best will get the nod. We all usually find out on game day who is in net that night.

I can understand that, just wanted to know if your "backup" warranted splitting games 50/50 with your #1, since he played a lot of games in Samsonov’s absence.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I don’t think we’ll see a lot of TDL action IMO. Guys are going to have to quarantine and learn a new system during a shortened season. My guess is there might be a few hockey trades where it’s guys on multi year contracts being traded for one another and less rental type players being moved.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I can understand that, just wanted to know if your "backup" warranted splitting games 50/50 with your #1, since he played a lot of games in Samsonov’s absence.

Seems like the plan is for both guys to split duties from here on out.

 

[txpd]

Seems like the plan is for both guys to split duties from here on out.

I take Laviolette at his word. There is no plan. If one guy is clearly outplaying the other guy, the guy playing better is gonna play more. Who that is right now is unclear.

The idea that Vanecek would be playing more just because Samsonov was unavailable ignores that til the last 2 starts Vanecek was on a long run of under 2:00gaa hockey and Samsonov has one good game under his belt.

Someone will be the #1 come playoffs. I would be shocked if Lavy alternated goalies in the playoffs

 

[txpd]

I can understand that, just wanted to know if your "backup" warranted splitting games 50/50 with your #1, since he played a lot of games in Samsonov’s absence.

which is the backup and which is the #1?

 

[hb12xchamps]

I take Laviolette at his word. There is no plan. If one guy is clearly outplaying the other guy, the guy playing better is gonna play more. Who that is right now is unclear.

The idea that Vanecek would be playing more just because Samsonov was unavailable ignores that til the last 2 starts Vanecek was on a long run of under 2:00gaa hockey and Samsonov has one good game under his belt.

Someone will be the #1 come playoffs. I would be shocked if Lavy alternated goalies in the playoffs

The question was more so in regards to the regular season and I’m assuming for fantasy hockey reasons. For those questions I’d say it’s safer to assume they have more of a split for the foreseeable future. Once they get closer to the playoffs, I’m sure a bonafide starter will emerge

 

[txpd]

The question was more so in regards to the regular season and I’m assuming for fantasy hockey reasons. For those questions I’d say it’s safer to assume they have more of a split for the foreseeable future. Once they get closer to the playoffs, I’m sure a bonafide starter will emerge

I hear you. I think the goalie situation is very volatile. Samsonov has more ability while Vanecek appears more capable of performing at his beset. Frankly Vanecek has impressed me with his mental toughness through all of this

 

[txpd]

I just saw this. Is he heating and fitting a hard protector for the tip of his left index finger? Has he had a broken finger?

 

[hb12xchamps]

I hear you. I think the goalie situation is very volatile. Samsonov has more ability while Vanecek appears more capable of performing at his beset. Frankly Vanecek has impressed me with his mental toughness through all of this

The two did very well sharing the net in Hershey and became good friends off the ice. It was clear though that Samsonov was essentially the #1 goaltender once the Calder Cup Playoffs rolled around FWIW.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

I just saw this. Is he heating and fitting a hard protector for the tip of his left index finger? Has he had a broken finger?

Tex, I think you may be on to something. And, it would make a lot of sense.

 

[txpd]

The two did very well sharing the net in Hershey and became good friends off the ice. It was clear though that Samsonov was essentially the #1 goaltender once the Calder Cup Playoffs rolled around FWIW.

I know all of that. Sammy is the 1st round pick on the team. That said since his last several starts of last season Samsonov has been in a tailspin while Vanecek seems unflappable. If he has a big game again tonight, I think the tables will have shifted for going forward

 

[g00n]

Tex, I think you may be on to something. And, it would make a lot of sense.

No he's holding something in his left hand and heating it with a lighter held in his right hand.

He also appears to be shaping it with the butt end of the lighter.

Maybe some piece of equipment that needed repair, or a tool for working on his stick.