g00n
Retired Global Mod
- Nov 22, 2007
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Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2
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Yes, why wouldn't it be predictive of expectations over a large enough sample. Keep in mind his opponent also has a FO%, and if they match, then its a 50/50 thing.
BiPolar Caps
Registered User
Sorry, but just some of the Rorschach inkblots related to stats and zones etc. that are posted here makes my head want to explode. I'm like Alan May when it comes to all of this, I rely on the naked eye. But it does stand to reason the importance of faceoffs taken in your defensive end, as you don't want to extend your opponents possession time in your defensive zone anymore than possible.
txpd
Registered User
50 50 is acceptable when you are killing a penalty and lose 5 face offs in a row like the Caps have done repeatedly this season
I will die on the hill defending faceoffs being important.
Carlzner
Registered User
I really really like both Savard and Ekholm who are both rumored to be available, not sure where they would fit and who they would replace right now though
Heh, defending from who exactly? Everyone is pretty much on the same hill.
Ovechkins Wodka
Registered User
Who doesnt love taking a bad PK losing the FO and getting scored on in a few seconds LOL
Just a little detail to add there: Schultz is like 1,5x thicker than Djoos
And I think Djoos was fine. Just physically weak.
That will be the truth for any team sport. Once you lost the ball/puck you need to spend extra energy to get it back. Its very simple.
Honestly, I think everybody roughly agrees on faceoffs. We all have the same understanding of which one is important, which one is critical and which one is irrelevant.
As a statistic it's junk, IMO. It's all lumped together into a single number and completely abstracted from game situation and the fact that the player who took the faceoff has to remain on the ice and play hockey immediately after. Faceoff performance is also completely integrated into much better statistics. If a team gives up the lowest amount of scoring chances in the league or has extremely low goals against average or expected goals against, than who cares what their faceoff percentage is? It's good enough.
Riddle me this. What's the difference between a defenseman going in to retrieve a puck on a dump in, engaging in a board battle and either coming out with the puck or allowing his opponent to establish posession VS a center taking a faceoff? IMO, the former is more important as it occurs with much higher frequency and the defensive team is never set in perfect alignment when it happens. Yet, the NHL tracks one of them religiously and if you track the other one, you are a fancy stat lover and don't understand the game of hockey.
Hivemind
We're Touched
Faceoffs matter drastically less than shot attempts shortly following a faceoff. In short, if a team gains clean enough possession to generate a shot attempt in the seconds following a faceoff, it was a meaningful faceoff. If the face off just ends in a battle between two wingers for the puck in the corner, it wasn’t particularly meaningful.
Team play also has more impact on faceoff win% than many like to realize. The center is credited with winning or losing the draw, but often time it’s the play of the wingers and D winning a battle for a 50/50 puck cleanly that ends up determining who actually won. Both the skill of these players and the strategies implemented by their coaching staff can impact faceoff win% of the centers.
Tyler Dellow had an exceptional article on this topic several years back. He showed how the Oilers made a change that increased their faceoff win%, but actually ended up giving up more shots against following faceoffs, and how that impacted their season performance. Unfortunately that article was deleted from his blog when the Oilers hired him to do analytics work.
Puckbase (formerly faceoffs.net) does still track post faceoff possession metrics. Each of Eller, Backstrom, and Kuznetsov have positive net shots post faceoff, and Eller is ranked quite highly. Kuzy’s stats are actually being propped up by really good D zone numbers (his neutral zone is exactly even and his offensive zone is negative), but he’s only taken 19 d zone draws this season so that’s still pretty noisy and not particularly reliable.
Post face-off possession- 2020-21 regular season - 2020 - Puckbase
Team play also has more impact on faceoff win% than many like to realize. The center is credited with winning or losing the draw, but often time it’s the play of the wingers and D winning a battle for a 50/50 puck cleanly that ends up determining who actually won. Both the skill of these players and the strategies implemented by their coaching staff can impact faceoff win% of the centers.
Tyler Dellow had an exceptional article on this topic several years back. He showed how the Oilers made a change that increased their faceoff win%, but actually ended up giving up more shots against following faceoffs, and how that impacted their season performance. Unfortunately that article was deleted from his blog when the Oilers hired him to do analytics work.
Puckbase (formerly faceoffs.net) does still track post faceoff possession metrics. Each of Eller, Backstrom, and Kuznetsov have positive net shots post faceoff, and Eller is ranked quite highly. Kuzy’s stats are actually being propped up by really good D zone numbers (his neutral zone is exactly even and his offensive zone is negative), but he’s only taken 19 d zone draws this season so that’s still pretty noisy and not particularly reliable.
Post face-off possession- 2020-21 regular season - 2020 - Puckbase
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Kuzy once said "I don't worry about faceoffs, if you lose you just go get the puck back..."
So that is a thing that Kuzy said, once.
So that is a thing that Kuzy said, once.
g00n
Retired Global Mod
- Nov 22, 2007
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It seems like there are 2 different arguments here. One is the value of the generic FO stat, the other is the value of the FO "win" in general.
We can say nobody argues the latter but I think that's being generous. I have seen people use the stat issues to argue the FO is not that important. At least that used to be the case a few years ago. Maybe they've wised up since.
We can say nobody argues the latter but I think that's being generous. I have seen people use the stat issues to argue the FO is not that important. At least that used to be the case a few years ago. Maybe they've wised up since.
AussieCapsFan
Registered User
It just seems so obvious to me - hockey is about puck possession. If you don't have the puck you don't score. Winning faceoffs = more possession. Therefore winning FO's is important....
AussieCapsFan
Registered User
Kuzy seems like if he wasn't a hockey player he might be working at Dunder Mifflin.
AussieCapsFan
Registered User
Neil Racki
Registered User
I dont mind this little 3 day break. Coming at a decent time.
edit -- with that said, having a game tonight would have been ideal timing for me ... lady is watching Flash and that Superman show tonight, so it would have been a great night to drink some beers and yell at the TV.
edit -- with that said, having a game tonight would have been ideal timing for me ... lady is watching Flash and that Superman show tonight, so it would have been a great night to drink some beers and yell at the TV.
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I think we all agree that winning faceoffs is preferable to not winning them. But I also don’t want four Jay Beagles on the team. That’s basically my thoughts on the matter
Well apparently he did once work with Kevin from The Office.
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