Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I don't think a single one of us liked the signing at the time lol

I'm happy with my original comments

I’m honestly fine with this. AAV is higher than I’d like but he’s a right handed shot who can skate well and pass the puck. We had three top 4 defensemen before this signing and if Schultz can bounce back he’ll round out the group pretty nicely. Jensen on the third pair should solidify the bottom pairing as well and not force him to take on too much.

Hivemind said:

My issue with this is twofold.
Schultz used to be able to skate well, but he's had knee and ankle injuries that have severely reduced his mobility. I'm not optimistic that he's going to be the mobile player he once was.
Siegenthaler-Jensen is the worst pairing that Jensen has been on. The two of them just don't have chemistry, and have struggled together.​

We thought the same thing with Niskanen too and he bounced back last year with Philly. I agree injuries are a concern though so we'll see how it goes. I think there's some upside to the signing, and I think he'll be a better fit on PP2 than Orlov (assuming Ovi plays all two minutes like he normally does).

Willing to see how things look under a different coach before I make any declarative statements about who has chemistry with who but point taken.

 

[tenken00]

some of us were happy to wait for them to actually play some games....

He's not the most physical, but we really needed a D with his skills. Someone who can make the transition from zone to zone whether through bringing it up or making an accurate outlet pass. Kinda shows how lacking we are in that department.

I was getting real tired of all the hail mary whisper-a-prayer fling-the-puck-down-as-hard-as-you-can and hope someone is there from the past few years.

 

[filinski77]

Anyone else feel like Ovi is being shadowed on the power play a lot more this season than in the past?

So far it seems almost impossible to get a good shot opportunity over to him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Anyone else feel like Ovi is being shadowed on the power play a lot more this season than in the past?

So far it seems almost impossible to get a good shot opportunity over to him.

I don’t...he needs to not just stand there.

 

[Coldplay619]

Anyone else feel like Ovi is being shadowed on the power play a lot more this season than in the past?

So far it seems almost impossible to get a good shot opportunity over to him.

He is getting shadowed way more now, a guy is glued to him at all times.

The Carlson-Ovechkin switch at the top nullifies some of that but Ovi playing at the top of the PP was rough last time we saw it.

There just needs to be more movement in general.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

He is getting shadowed way more now, a guy is glued to him at all times.

The Carlson-Ovechkin switch at the top nullifies some of that but Ovi playing at the top of the PP was rough last time we saw it.

There just needs to be more movement in general.

I liked Backstrom moving to the top of the PP today he wasnt there long but I liked the change.

 

[txpd]

He is getting shadowed way more now, a guy is glued to him at all times.

The Carlson-Ovechkin switch at the top nullifies some of that but Ovi playing at the top of the PP was rough last time we saw it.

There just needs to be more movement in general.

About half the teams last season used either a specific shadow or just stood a guy in his shooting lane. It worked as the Caps pp dropped to mid pack. Now they are all doing it. The difference is that the Caps/Forsythe has accepted this. Only Backstrom has more power play assists than Ovechkin. The Caps pp is back at the top of the league.

It will be interesting to see how much longer these teams are going to stick with this clearly failing pk strategy.

I actually get a kick out of watching Ov just standing slack in his spot with a guy standing there watching him do that. Also when he just skates down to the goal post telling his shadow to come stand in front of his goalie

 

[txpd]

I liked Backstrom moving to the top of the PP today he wasnt there long but I liked the change.

Best I could tell that was a rotation to get Carlson into Ov's shooting hole after Ov skated down to the goal post with his shadow.

 

[442]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Faceoffs don’t matter I read...hah!

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Faceoffs don’t matter I read...hah!

Just be happy Lavi can pull Peca out of his phone book to help us

 

[HecticGlow]

I think the Faceoff win/loss issue also relates to how good the team you’re playing are at maintaining possession - when you lose a defensive zone draw to a guy like Crosby, it’s not uncommon that you’re then hemmed in for minutes just trying to get the puck out the zone. Against teams like Buffalo, that maybe is less of an issue.

Re: Schultz, what strikes me is he’s playing like the guy we hoped Djoos would become - defensively competent, good skates and good offensive instincts. With Dillon effectively becoming a more physical Kempny, and Chara as our new Orpik, I think you can make an argument that our D Corp looks more like it did from the Cup run now than at any time since - including when Kempny and Orpik were still in the lineup.

 

[g00n]

FOs are important no matter what the fancy stats have said.

There are several problems with trying to directly correlate FO stats with wins or even goals.

-The metric for determining who wins a FO (possession rather than who "wins" at the dot)
-Few goals scored each game vs FOs taken
-Other important events/outcomes are tied to FOs that do not show up in the final analysis, or even in stats
-Line matching as determined by home ice and previous shifts/PP/PK

FOs are largely situational. Who is on the ice for a FO can be equally situational. There is no "win X FOs and score/prevent Y goals" straight line. Maybe you desperately need a line change after an icing. That FO is suddenly much more important than Z number of neutral zone FOs with rested lines. Maybe the other team has momentum and you need to stop it. Maybe your best FO guys are gassed from recent shifts and you need to win a d-zone draw.

Etc.

Anyone who has seen/played enough hockey is going to tell you FOs can be key plays in a hockey game, and if you're not up to scratch then you're likely to lose the big ones, which is what really swings the pendulum against you.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

5/6 games are vs Boston and Philly should be a good test for us

 

[pman25]

Face offs are much better but we played teams that suck way more in the dot than us. Philly and Boston are good FO teams so I’d like to see how we fare against them

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't think a single one of us liked the signing at the time lol

I was ok with it. Can’t say I liked it. But it wasn’t upset by it. I thought the AAV seemed high only because of all the crap Pens fans talked about him. But it’s actually a bargain if he continues to play this way. He’s playing more like a 6m/ye player, IMO. At least, so far.

 

[Ridley Simon]

He's not the most physical, but we really needed a D with his skills. Someone who can make the transition from zone to zone whether through bringing it up or making an accurate outlet pass. Kinda shows how lacking we are in that department.

I was getting real tired of all the hail mary whisper-a-prayer fling-the-puck-down-as-hard-as-you-can and hope someone is there from the past few years.

We really saw this when he went down to injury. The “bounce back” of the teams record has pretty much coincided with his return, if I’m remembering correctly.

coincidence? I don’t think so

 

[tenken00]

We really saw this when he went down to injury. The “bounce back” of the teams record has pretty much coincided with his return, if I’m remembering correctly.

coincidence? I don’t think so

I think that was a part of it, but we started getting guys back sorta around at the same time. While the taxi squad Caps was a good story, we need our guys back all healthy and playing. Even with Samsonov back in the fold, we have Kuzy out now.

 

[kicksavedave]

FOs are important no matter what the fancy stats have said.

There are several problems with trying to directly correlate FO stats with wins or even goals.

-The metric for determining who wins a FO (possession rather than who "wins" at the dot)
-Few goals scored each game vs FOs taken
-Other important events/outcomes are tied to FOs that do not show up in the final analysis, or even in stats
-Line matching as determined by home ice and previous shifts/PP/PK

FOs are largely situational. Who is on the ice for a FO can be equally situational. There is no "win X FOs and score/prevent Y goals" straight line. Maybe you desperately need a line change after an icing. That FO is suddenly much more important than Z number of neutral zone FOs with rested lines. Maybe the other team has momentum and you need to stop it. Maybe your best FO guys are gassed from recent shifts and you need to win a d-zone draw.

Etc.

Anyone who has seen/played enough hockey is going to tell you FOs can be key plays in a hockey game, and if you're not up to scratch then you're likely to lose the big ones, which is what really swings the pendulum against you.

I think this is pretty much what everyone has been saying all along. Some faceoffs are of vital importance to a game situation. But over 82 games FO% doesn't correlate to much of anything. No one has ever said anything different. But the straw man machine on here invented "faceoffs are not important" to help themselves feel smarter.

 

[txpd]

I think this is pretty much what everyone has been saying all along. Some faceoffs are of vital importance to a game situation. But over 82 games FO% doesn't correlate to much of anything. No one has ever said anything different. But the straw man machine on here invented "faceoffs are not important" to help themselves feel smarter.

You think that its typical for a 40% face off player to be a 60% face off player in critical defensive zone and special teams face offs? It might be that Jay Beagle's 82 game FO% doesn't correlate to his penalty killing and late game defensive zone face offs except that he was money in those situations. Kuzy is not. There are a lot of irrelevant neutral zone draws on Beagle's sheet but he was also money for those OT faceoffs. Those faceoffs that the Caps lose now and dont touch the puck for the first minute of OT.

Do you disagree that a top overall face off guy is usually a reliable source for critical face offs? I do

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I think this is pretty much what everyone has been saying all along. Some faceoffs are of vital importance to a game situation. But over 82 games FO% doesn't correlate to much of anything. No one has ever said anything different. But the straw man machine on here invented "faceoffs are not important" to help themselves feel smarter.

Remember when BB use to send out David Steckel to take FO in the defensive end and after taking the FO Steckel would immediately rush to the bench to get off the ice.

 

[kicksavedave]

You think that its typical for a 40% face off player to be a 60% face off player in critical defensive zone and special teams face offs? It might be that Jay Beagle's 82 game FO% doesn't correlate to his penalty killing and late game defensive zone face offs except that he was money in those situations. Kuzy is not. There are a lot of irrelevant neutral zone draws on Beagle's sheet but he was also money for those OT faceoffs. Those faceoffs that the Caps lose now and dont touch the puck for the first minute of OT.

Do you disagree that a top overall face off guy is usually a reliable source for critical face offs? I do

Straw man #1: You think that its typical for a 40% face off player to be a 60% face off player in critical defensive zone and special teams face offs? I never said any such thing.
Straw man #2: It might be that Jay Beagle's 82 game FO% doesn't correlate to his penalty killing and late game defensive zone face offs except that he was money in those situations. I have always referred to team FO%, not an individuals.
Confusing straw man#3: Do you disagree that a top overall face off guy is usually a reliable source for critical face offs? I do So you disagree that a top FO guy is a reliable source for critical FO's? I'm guessing this is just confused wording but when you put words in someone else's mouth, please make sure the words make sense. I've never said any such thing as what you're implying. I don't believe anyone else on here has either.

We could play the game all day long about how important it is to win a FO when you're killing a penalty late in the game when its tied or up by a goal, or in the offensive zone when you're down by a goal. No one, certainly not me, has ever said anything contrary to that simple, basic, universal concept. It then also stands to reason that having at least one very good FO person to take those draws can be beneficial, even if its Dave Steckel who takes the draw then sprints off the ice. If you could try to detach that from the also true statement that examining team FO% doesn't correlate to team winning %, then maybe we could have a reasoned conversation.

Question for the straw man army out here: What would be better: A pair of 75% FO guys and a pair of 25% FO guys, or four 50% FO guys? Lets assume they all take an equal amount of draws over the year.

 

[kicksavedave]

Remember when BB use to send out David Steckel to take FO in the defensive end and after taking the FO Steckel would immediately rush to the bench to get off the ice.

I remember... didn't Beagle do a few shifts like that in the Cup run also?

 

[txpd]

Straw man #1: You think that its typical for a 40% face off player to be a 60% face off player in critical defensive zone and special teams face offs? I never said any such thing.
Straw man #2: It might be that Jay Beagle's 82 game FO% doesn't correlate to his penalty killing and late game defensive zone face offs except that he was money in those situations. I have always referred to team FO%, not an individuals.
Confusing straw man#3: Do you disagree that a top overall face off guy is usually a reliable source for critical face offs? I do So you disagree that a top FO guy is a reliable source for critical FO's? I'm guessing this is just confused wording but when you put words in someone else's mouth, please make sure the words make sense. I've never said any such thing as what you're implying.

We could play the game all day long about how important it is to win a FO when you're killing a penalty late in the game when its tied or up by a goal, or in the offensive zone when you're down by a goal. No one, certainly not me, has ever said anything contrary to that simple, basic, universal concept. It then also stands to reason that having at least one very good FO person to take those draws can be beneficial, even if its Dave Steckel who takes the draw then sprints off the ice. If you could try to detach that from the also true statement that examining team FO% doesn't correlate to team winning %, then maybe we could have a reasoned conversation.

Question for the straw man army out here: What would be better: A pair of 75% FO guys and a pair of 25% FO guys, or four 50% FO guys? Lets assume they all take an equal amount of draws over the year.

Strawman 1. I am saying that a player's overall face off % is a reliable indicator to his performance in critical face offs. Agree or no?

 

[g00n]

There's been a lot of bulldozing of FOs as a stat over the years. Just google "faceoffs hockey overrated" and take a trip down memory lane.