Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Regular Season Part 3

[Calicaps]

Part 2

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[Hivemind]

Allow me to christen this new thread:

Trade Hagelin

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Allow me to christen this new thread:

Trade Hagelin

This thread has been blessed.

 

[zappa4ever]

Allow me to christen this new thread:

Trade Hagelin

Hags' spot is 100% secure until someone supplants him as a PK master
(hint: ain't gon' be hap'nin' anytime soon)

 

[895]

Q: Is there some quantifiable way to tell if someone is actually good at PKing? Eye test is highly anecdotal (passes broken up, shooting lanes covered, pressure on puck carrier, clears, etc)

 

[twabby]

Q: Is there some quantifiable way to tell if someone is actually good at PKing? Eye test is highly anecdotal (passes broken up, shooting lanes covered, pressure on puck carrier, clears, etc)

IMO you need more than simple on-ice stats to quantify PKing ability because there are a lot of variables that go into on-ice results: teammates, opposition, how often you start in the defensive zone, goaltending, etc. For instance I don't think you can use xGA/60 as a PK measure since someone on PK1 is almost always going to have a higher xGA/60 than someone on PK2 because they are starting in the defensive zone against the other team's top PP unit. Player usage is much less uniform on special teams than at 5v5, so context becomes much more important.

Micah tries to model PKing ability on Hockeyviz (writeup here: Model: Magnus 5 (ST)), as does Evolving Hockey with their WAR and RAPM models (RAPM model here: Evolving-Hockey).

 

[maacoshark]

Allow me to christen this new thread:

Trade Hagelin

Does Hagelin have any trade value? Maybe we can get a couple of hockey sticks and a roll of tape in return.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

@twabby

Didn’t you already identify Hags as an elite defensive forward with stats to back that assertion like 10 days ago?

 

[twabby]

@twabby

Didn’t you already identify Hags as an elite defensive forward with stats to back that assertion like 10 days ago?

He was excellent defensively as of last year. But his numbers have taken a turn for the worse this year:

These are his xGAR/60 numbers for last year vs. this year. Both offensively and defensively he has dropped off quite a bit. He still appears to be doing well shorthanded, but not as well as last year.

It's possible he's just had a rough go of things this year and that things will turn around for him in terms of his defensive game and playdriving (though like Beavis, he'll never score). Everyone has bad stretches of games, and it is easy to forget just how good the 4th line was against the Bruins last year.

I'm only advocating dumping him if there is an upgrade coming in. I don't want Hagelin gone to get some other random grinder or depth defenseman. As I mentioned in the last version of this thread I have my doubts about Backstrom's ability to return at close to full strength. He's been rehabbing for months now and does not appear to be returning soon, though I could be wrong. I'm an NFT speculator and global warmer, not a doctor or physical therapist, but without surgery I really don't see a way he's going to just come back right as rain. If Backstrom can't return fully healthy and unless Connor McMichael is fully trusted I really do think they need to target a 2C and I imagine that will require a decent chunk of money going out (unless Backstrom is on LTIR all season). Hagelin and Schultz seem like the best candidates to make that happen.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Q: Is there some quantifiable way to tell if someone is actually good at PKing? Eye test is highly anecdotal (passes broken up, shooting lanes covered, pressure on puck carrier, clears, etc)

The answer is no, despite what some may tell you. What you call "anecdotal" most would call "scouting" or "film study". The only people that can really tell you whether Hagelin is a good PKer are the ones giving him PK instructions. There's no way to quantify "is this player good at doing what the coaching staff is asking him to do within the team's PK structure?"

 

[Hivemind]

The answer is no, despite what some may tell you. What you call "anecdotal" most would call "scouting" or "film study". The only people that can really tell you whether Hagelin is a good PKer are the ones giving him PK instructions. There's no way to quantify "is this player good at doing what the coaching staff is asking him to do within the team's PK structure?"

That’s a punt, and you know it. You can most definitely compare two PKers within the same system analytically. The Eller/Wilson combo has historically outperformed the Dowd/Hagelin combo, including when Eller/Wilson has been used as first wave PKers. Hags’ PK reputation has an inconsistent relationship to the results he actually produces.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He was excellent defensively as of last year. But his numbers have taken a turn for the worse this year:

View attachment 482120

These are his xGAR/60 numbers for last year vs. this year. Both offensively and defensively he has dropped off quite a bit. He still appears to be doing well shorthanded, but not as well as last year.

It's possible he's just had a rough go of things this year and that things will turn around for him in terms of his defensive game and playdriving (though like Beavis, he'll never score). Everyone has bad stretches of games, and it is easy to forget just how good the 4th line was against the Bruins last year.

I'm only advocating dumping him if there is an upgrade coming in. I don't want Hagelin gone to get some other random grinder or depth defenseman. As I mentioned in the last version of this thread I have my doubts about Backstrom's ability to return at close to full strength. He's been rehabbing for months now and does not appear to be returning soon, though I could be wrong. I'm an NFT speculator and global warmer, not a doctor or physical therapist, but without surgery I really don't see a way he's going to just come back right as rain. If Backstrom can't return fully healthy and unless Connor McMichael is fully trusted I really do think they need to target a 2C and I imagine that will require a decent chunk of money going out (unless Backstrom is on LTIR all season). Hagelin and Schultz seem like the best candidates to make that happen.

so is AJF an upgrade over Hags in your opinion? That’s how many want to see this shake out….

 

[Misery74]

Even if Hagelin is a great PKer, he doesn’t come close to justifying his salary. I don’t blame previous postseason failures on Hagelin, but he was invisible at best.

Youth seems to look good on this team, plus, we would have flexibility at the deadline.

The justification for keeping Hagelin is hanging by a thread.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

That’s a punt, and you know it. You can most definitely compare two PKers within the same system analytically. The Eller/Wilson combo has historically outperformed the Dowd/Hagelin combo, including when Eller/Wilson has been used as first wave PKers. Hags’ PK reputation has an inconsistent relationship to the results he actually produces.

It's not a punt, it's the evaluation of every coach that has had him. I'd like the guy gone tomorrow, but there are *plenty* of things in hockey you just can't quantify. Even your evaluation is tied to PKing pairs, and not to individual players.

 

[twabby]

so is AJF an upgrade over Hags in your opinion? That’s how many want to see this shake out….

I'm not sure. AJF has played 6 games in the NHL and his results have been ok, but there are large error bars associated with a 6 game sample. This could be who he is, or he could be better, or he could be worse.

But I don't really think that's the right question to ask. I think the right question to ask is can Hagelin's $2.75M (and whatever assets are needed to offload his contract) be better spent elsewhere to make the team better overall? I think the answer to that question is probably yes. Whether it be a goaltender if Samsonov and Vanecek falter, or whether it be a 2C if Backstrom can't return fully healthy, I think that $2.75M will probably have more impact elsewhere, even if you have to suffer a slight downgrade at 4LW.

It's kind of the same deal with Justin Schultz. He's not playing terrible right now, and I'm not sure Chowlowski/Irwin or Alexeyev, for instance, would be any sort of upgrade. But would they be a small enough downgrade at worst to make $4 million upgrading another part of the roster worth it? I think the answer to that question is probably yes. Neither Schultz nor Hagelin have the sort of upside that would make it worth hanging on to them like Kuznetsov, for instance.

Again I wouldn't do anything until Backstrom's status is known. If he can't return that is the glaring hole in the lineup unless McMichael both performs well and Laviolette trusts him in that role.

On another note, the C*pitals play the Sharks and Tomas Hertl tonight. I'll be paying attention to him, and hopefully Washington wins so that San Jose gets further away from a playoff spot. I don't want them to have any crazy ideas like keeping Hertl at the deadline this year!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm not sure. AJF has played 6 games in the NHL and his results have been ok, but there are large error bars associated with a 6 game sample. This could be who he is, or he could be better, or he could be worse.

But I don't really think that's the right question to ask. I think the right question to ask is can Hagelin's $2.75M (and whatever assets are needed to offload his contract) be better spent elsewhere to make the team better overall? I think the answer to that question is probably yes. Whether it be a goaltender if Samsonov and Vanecek falter, or whether it be a 2C if Backstrom can't return fully healthy, I think that $2.75M will probably have more impact elsewhere, even if you have to suffer a slight downgrade at 4LW.

It's kind of the same deal with Justin Schultz. He's not playing terrible right now, and I'm not sure Chowlowski/Irwin or Alexeyev, for instance, would be any sort of upgrade. But would they be a small enough downgrade at worst to make $4 million upgrading another part of the roster worth it? I think the answer to that question is probably yes. Neither Schultz nor Hagelin have the sort of upside that would make it worth hanging on to them like Kuznetsov, for instance.

Again I wouldn't do anything until Backstrom's status is known. If he can't return that is the glaring hole in the lineup unless McMichael both performs well and Laviolette trusts him in that role.

On another note, the C*pitals play the Sharks and Tomas Hertl tonight. I'll be paying attention to him, and hopefully Washington wins so that San Jose gets further away from a playoff spot. I don't want them to have any crazy ideas like keeping Hertl at the deadline this year!

Of course it’s the right question to ask because we already know the 2.75 could be successfully spent on a better player/position of need.

What we don’t know is if we have a capable PK/defensive replacement for him.

 

[g00n]

Can't figure out why people are so obsessed with Hagelin when this team is winning and playing well overall. If his salary becomes an issue then I think he might drift into Panik cash-dump territory if he remains one-dimensional. But overall it's just weird to be looking for whipping boys right now.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Can't figure out why people are so obsessed with Hagelin when this team is winning and playing well overall. If his salary becomes an issue then I think he might drift into Panik cash-dump territory if he remains one-dimensional. But overall it's just weird to be looking for whipping boys right now.

yup, agreed….trying to think through the logic of those wanting him gone. Carlson is very close to the same whipping boy status IMO.

 

[Ridley Simon]

People want him gone simply because he (and probably Schultz) seemingly have the worst ROI on the team.

could they still make a run with those 2 on the roster? I think so.

could they have a better chance at a longer run with 6.75 in better ROI?

good chance of yes. But also a lesser chance of no.

 

[Hivemind]

It's not a punt, it's the evaluation of every coach that has had him. I'd like the guy gone tomorrow, but there are *plenty* of things in hockey you just can't quantify. Even your evaluation is tied to PKing pairs, and not to individual players.

Just because a guy is deployed heavily on the PK doesn't mean the coach thinks he's the best PKer, it means the coach thinks that him having the PK minutes will help the team the most. There may be other players the coach feels are superior PKers, bu the coach wants to manage their PK minutes so they can be used more in other situations (whether it be even-strength, the powerplay, etc). Oftentimes the first wave PKers aren't even the best PKers, but rather the PKing center with the best of winning the first draw.

In that post I mentioned them as pairs, but there are also solo evaluations you can perform. One of the off-season roster threads had a few page discussion on PK efficacy that was a solid read. It was primarily focused on Chara at the time, but I believe Hagelin made a few guest appearances IIRC.

 

[traparatus]

Can't figure out why people are so obsessed with Hagelin when this team is winning and playing well overall. If his salary becomes an issue then I think he might drift into Panik cash-dump territory if he remains one-dimensional. But overall it's just weird to be looking for whipping boys right now.

Personally, I'd like to get an answer to whether or not Caps have a capable PK replacement in the system IF Hagelin is gone.

Some of the younger players have played well enough to at least be given an opportunity to be a part of the PK. I don't think that Hagelin's play this season should be making him a lock for a roster spot. Nor do I think that Caps should be in a rush to trade him. Let's just see what the options are.

Lastly, if any player makes $2.75m a season and continuously botches the kind of prime scoring opportunities that Hagelin has botched, there will be criticism. There is a difference between 'not getting paid to score' and 'getting paid not to score'.

 

[g00n]

Personally, I'd like to get an answer to whether or not Caps have a capable PK replacement in the system IF Hagelin is gone.

Some of the younger players have played well enough to at least be given an opportunity to be a part of the PK. I don't think that Hagelin's play this season should be making him a lock for a roster spot. Nor do I think that Caps should be in a rush to trade him. Let's just see what the options are.

Lastly, if any player makes $2.75m a season and continuously botches the kind of prime scoring opportunities that Hagelin has botched, there will be criticism. There is a difference between 'not getting paid to score' and 'getting paid not to score'.

Generally agree, but if he were scoring at his normal career clip of around 8% he'd have maybe 2 goals this season based on his shot totals. I doubt that would be enough to stop all the talk.

 

[YippieKaey]

Heard rumblings about Ben Chiarot being available. Cap hit at 2,5 mil.

Hagelin + a second or Schultz + a second might do the trick. Think a guy like that would help the PK and be a good presence in the crease.

 

[txpd]

Personally, I'd like to get an answer to whether or not Caps have a capable PK replacement in the system IF Hagelin is gone.

The short answer is found in your value of experience in defending. As a rule the more experienced player is better at defending than the younger player. As a player ages and their skills erode their experience keeps them at a quality level defending. Its true of both defensemen and forwards. Hagelin has been an elite level penalty killer for a long time and has been on a cup winning team with a lot of playoff experience. If you think the experience is of marginal value and any bottom six forward can pk, the you will feel differently.

I would not want to replace Hagelin or Eller or Wilson or Dowd with a rookie. That said, we did get one penalty kill where Axe was partnered with Hagelin and that was something to see. I wouldnt want to replace Hagelin with AJF but the idea of Hagelin AND Axe is intriguing.

 

[txpd]

Heard rumblings about Ben Chiarot being available. Cap hit at 2,5 mil.

Hagelin + a second or Schultz + a second might do the trick. Think a guy like that would help the PK and be a good presence in the crease.

That was on Elliotte Friedman's podcast yesterday